Heyman: Twins asked about Santana

[Doomtints]

 

Gonsalves sits at 87-90 with no dependable breaking pitch. Milone hit 92 several games I listened to. Take a look at Milone's career record. Gonsalves is pie in the sky, and I would trade him, if at all possible.

 

I looked at the scouting reports at Gonsalves before I responded to you because I wanted to be sure what I read before is correct.  His fastball is at 92-93.

 

I also looked at Milone's pitchf/x just to make sure his fastball really sits at 87-88 like I recall.  And it does.

 

Maybe you have Gonsalves confused with someone else?  I'm not sure who you would have Milone confused with, however.  What's equally perplexing is the comparison to Milone at all, when you cite Milone as having better stuff. Did you just pick a crappy pitcher's name out of a hat to try to disparage Gonsalves, one of the top rated Twins prospects?  Why would you do that?

[howieramone2]

 

I looked at the scouting reports at Gonsalves before I responded to you because I wanted to be sure what I read before is correct.  His fastball is at 92-93.

 

I also looked at Milone's pitchf/x just to make sure his fastball really sits at 87-88 like I recall.  And it does.

 

Maybe you have Gonsalves confused with someone else?  I'm not sure who you would have Milone confused with, however.  What's equally perplexing is the comparison to Milone at all, when you cite Milone as having better stuff. Did you just pick a crappy pitcher's name out of a hat to try to disparage Gonsalves, one of the top rated Twins prospects?  Why would you do that?

The truth hurts. Gonsalves has better stats than stuff. Best not to push him too quickly or we will have another Berrios on our hands. Leave him in the minors until he can develop a dependable curve or slider. No way in the world does his fastball sit at 92-93. Maybe downhill and with the wind.

[gunnarthor]

I'll jump in here.  fangraphs write up on Gonsalves noted that his fastball "frequently sat 89-92 mph in starts this year, Gonsalves has mostly been 86-90 and touching 92 in the Arizona Fall League and is still somehow missing bats with a heater in that range."  The concern with Gonsalves has always been that his stats are outplaying his stuff - concerns echoed by Klaw, as well.  

 

I like Gonsalves but I think Twins fans overrate him considerably.  Comparing him to Milone seems fair in that both are back of the rotation guys.  I don't think Gonsalves should be a top 100 prospect and I like both Jay and Stewart more, although that is a minority view.  

[Doomtints]

 

The truth hurts. Gonsalves has better stats than stuff. Best not to push him too quickly or we will have another Berrios on our hands. Leave him in the minors until he can develop a dependable curve or slider. No way in the world does his fastball sit at 92-93. Maybe downhill and with the wind.

 

I'm sorry but it's impossible to trust your opinion when what you said about Milone is so far from reality.  I will believe the scouting reports I have read.

[Doomtints]

 

 

concerns echoed by Klaw, as well. 

 

Ah, say no more.  When people get goofy opinions about prospects I've found it's nearly always because Law wrote about it.  Law is not a primary source.  Give me the link to that fangraphs article and let's see if that's a primary source too. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ah, say no more.  When people get goofy opinions about prospects I've found it's nearly always because Law wrote about it.  Law is not a primary source.  Give me the link to that fangraphs article and let's see if that's a primary source too. 

 

got it, you know more than the analysts that do this for a living....

[Doomtints]

 

 

got it, you know more than the analysts that do this for a living....

I know enough to read source material directly (scouting reports) than analysts.  You do too, I believe. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Ah, say no more.  When people get goofy opinions about prospects I've found it's nearly always because Law wrote about it.  Law is not a primary source.  Give me the link to that fangraphs article and let's see if that's a primary source too. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Now, that's not to say Gonsalves is doomed.  Sickels at minorleaugeball is more optimistic on Gonsalves, for example.  But I think Gonsalves ceiling is limited whereas guys like Jay and Stewart and Thorpe could end up better than him.  But, again, i don't think Gonsalves is a top 100 guy while others do. 

[Doomtints]

 

 

Give me the link to that fangraphs article and let's see if that's a primary source too. 

 

Nevermind, I found the articles.  They are written by Longenhagen, who I trust more than Law.

 

Regardless of what he wrote about Gonsalves's velocity (which I am skeptical of, I would like to see the data he saw), he still has Gonsalves as the #3 Twins prospect and projects him to be a #4 starter.  He also ranks him higher than both Jay, Stewart, and Thorpe.......

 

I think some people (such as Law) are going by old information when it comes to Gonsalves.  He came into the minors with a slow fastball, but recent reports say he is tossing in the 91-92 range now. 

[drjim]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Now, that's not to say Gonsalves is doomed. Sickels at minorleaugeball is more optimistic on Gonsalves, for example. But I think Gonsalves ceiling is limited whereas guys like Jay and Stewart and Thorpe could end up better than him. But, again, i don't think Gonsalves is a top 100 guy while others do.

Sickels weighs minor league stats more than a Law would. That would explain some of the divergence.

 

I'm with you in preferring Jay and Stewart and their ceilings more.

[drjim]

Nevermind, I found the articles. They are written by Longenhagen, who I trust more than Law.

 

Regardless of what he wrote about Gonsalves's velocity (which I am skeptical of, I would like to see the data he saw), he still has Gonsalves as the #3 Twins prospect and projects him to be a #4 starter. He also ranks him higher than both Jay, Stewart, and Thorpe.......

Fangraphs also weighs statistical output more, for better or worse.

 

I personally put Fangraphs behind BA, mlb.com, Law, and Sickels for goodness of prospect rankings and analysis, but depends on what you are looking for.

[Doomtints]

 

Fangraphs also weighs statistical output more, for better or worse.

I personally put Fangraphs behind BA, mlb.com, Law, and Sickels for goodness of prospect rankings and analysis, but depends on what you are looking for.

 

I prefer to read reports from scouts directly on Baseball Prospectus.  They show you the day the player was scouted, by whom, and sometimes have video to go along with it.  Skip the analysts altogether -- all they are doing is reading this same material and writing about it, but they often don't go by the latest scouting reports.  Many of them never played baseball and never scouted players.  They are writers/journalists/bloggers.

 

Givarz -- a well respected scout -- watched Gonsalves on 6/17/16.  He saw a fastball in the 90-92 range.  The only bad thing he had to say about his fastball is that he needs better control.  He said his curve and slider need work.  His likes his changeup. 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I prefer to read reports from scouts directly on Baseball Prospectus.  They show you the day the player was scouted, by whom, and sometimes have video to go along with it.  Skip the analysts altogether -- all they are doing is reading this same material and writing about it, but they often don't go by the latest scouting reports.  Many of them never played baseball and never scouted players.  They are writers/journalists/bloggers.

 

Givarz -- a well respected scout -- watched Gonsalves on 6/17/16.  He saw a fastball in the 90-92 range.  The only bad thing he had to say about his fastball is that he needs better control.  He said his curve and slider need work.  His likes his changeup. 

I used to like BP but a lot of their better writers/prospect guys have been hired away by pro teams (Cubs and Astros took my two favorites) so now I don't even go there anymore.  The content isn't what it used to be.

[drjim]

I prefer to read reports from scouts directly on Baseball Prospectus. They show you the day the player was scouted, by whom, and sometimes have video to go along with it. Skip the analysts altogether -- all they are doing is reading this same material and writing about it, but they often don't go by the latest scouting reports. Many of them never played baseball and never scouted players. They are writers/journalists/bloggers.

 

Givarz -- a well respected scout -- watched Gonsalves on 6/17/16. He saw a fastball in the 90-92 range. The only bad thing he had to say about his fastball is that he needs better control. He said his curve and slider need work. His likes his changeup.

I that's the wrong way to look at it. The analysts are mostly just compiling information from scouts and talent evaluators, from multiple scouts and organizations. This strikes me as much more accurate than over reliance on a scouting look or two.

 

And that report on Gonsalves would confirm everything else I have read about him.

[Doomtints]

 

I used to like BP but a lot of their better writers/prospect guys have been hired away by pro teams (Cubs and Astros took my two favorites) so now I don't even go there anymore.  The content isn't what it used to be.

 

Where else can you get pitchf/x data for minor league players?

[Doomtints]

 

 

And that report on Gonsalves would confirm everything else I have read about him.

 

Well, you're not the one arguing that his fastball is at 88 and Milone's is at 92. 

[Doomtints]

 

Regardless of what he wrote about Gonsalves's velocity (which I am skeptical of, I would like to see the data he saw)

 

Pitchf/x is available for some of the Arizona Fall League games. In spite of Longenhagen stating that Gonsalves's fastball was in the 86-89 range, Pitchf/x shows his average fastball in the AFL at 90. Unfortunately the data available does not show the range, just the average. However, unless he tossed a 105 MPH heater, we can be reasonably certain over half of the pitches thrown were above the range Longenhagen cited. 

 

If this isn't a shining example of why you should look up the data yourself instead of reading analysts, I don't know what is. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I think I have shifted my opinion. I earlier stated that they need to take the best offer. Now I believe that his decline will be slow and while the risk of injury might be greater among older pitchers all pitchers carry that risk.

For the games he starts over the next three seasons, i think he will stay in the neighborhood of league average and perhaps slightly below in 2018-19. Where else are the Twins going to find that production even if he misses time due to injury?

Should they trade for a prospect like May or Meyer, there is also a risk that they either won't develop or they will suffer an injury.

All of us would trade Santana for a DeLeon level prospect. Beyond that I think I stick with Santana. I don't know how many starts he will make over the next three years but I think they will be hard to replace.

Good data. I was opposed to the Santana signing at the time, though not opposed to Santana himself. I just felt another free agent to go with Hughes and Nolasco was too many rotation innings to squander while stunting development of guys like May and Meyer who you mention in the third paragraph...all water under the bridge at this point. 

 

My gut says going forward with Santana in 2017 is a better option than whatever the Twins might net in a trade. I plan to do a quick check and post findings on what those 20 guys netted in trades at that age. 

[kab21]

And here we go again getting caught up on breaking down prospects instead of trying to find an approximate value for Ervin. It seems his value lies somewhere between borderline top 100 prospect and a borderline top 50 prospect. That seems pretty fair. The FA market and trade market is really limited so I think a good argument could be made that the valuation could be on the higher end of the scale.

[snepp]

Milone FB velocity last 5 seasons

 

87.4

87.0

86.5

87.6

87.4

 

Mayhaps confusing him with someone else throwing 92?

[snepp]

And because I'm bored, Pitchf/x has never recorded a Milone pitch hitting 92 mph.

 

Did break the 91 mark on a select handful of occassions, but very, very rare.

[DocBauer]

NOT going to get in a debate about the value of a tall, strapping young LH pitcher with room to grow and and improve who has outstanding milb numbers and a seemingly good sense of how to pitch and the chance to be quite good with time and polish...(see what I did there?)...but I will speak again about Santana.

 

Considering the dearth of FA options, his proven track record, his strong 2016 season, what trades seem to be bringing, what he could mean to a team with a real window of opportunity, I absolutely believe Santana is worth a top100 prospect, if not two.

 

Top milb prospects can turn out to be studs. They can turn out mediocre. They can wash out. If a team looks to improve and bust through their window, they absolutely have to be willing to "gamble" on giving up a couple good "prospects" for the proven player who can make them better. With Dozier or Santana.

 

In an ideal situation, Dozier would net 3 SO prospects and Santana would net 2 position players.

 

If not a quality pair, I think I'd rather keep Santana to help lead my staff to as many wins as I could for my young team.

[drjim]

 

And here we go again getting caught up on breaking down prospects instead of trying to find an approximate value for Ervin. It seems his value lies somewhere between borderline top 100 prospect and a borderline top 50 prospect. That seems pretty fair. The FA market and trade market is really limited so I think a good argument could be made that the valuation could be on the higher end of the scale.

 

I don't know, you proposed trying to equate Santana's value with specific Twins prospects, so it would logically lead to talking about specific Twins prospects.

 

The theoretical ranking number is fine to point, but it should probably be attached to a specific player, or at least a profile to have actual meaning. Plus, I would argue that once you get past the elite and second tier prospects, it is more interesting to look at specific teams and their surpluses to really find out what Santana is actually going to bring back in a trade.

[The Wise One]

 

And here we go again getting caught up on breaking down prospects instead of trying to find an approximate value for Ervin. It seems his value lies somewhere between borderline top 100 prospect and a borderline top 50 prospect. That seems pretty fair. The FA market and trade market is really limited so I think a good argument could be made that the valuation could be on the higher end of the scale.

Hope you were enjoying your holiday.   A prospect that is in AA or AAA and ranked as a top 50-100 prospect looks far different in potential than a player in some form of A ball.  The question is what kind of ceiling do you want from your return. Lower risk, lower reward and you will get a couple of back of the rotation starters.  High risk, and uncertainty will lead to you a potential great player.   Gallardo had about the same level of value when traded from the Brewers. Netted a top 80 position player, an unranked major league ready reliever and a player who was thought to be the best amateur pitcher in his peer group the year before (high risk, high reward). Now Gallardo is younger, but performance is still performance. Santana should net a similar result.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think anyone doubts what Santana would net... We should get someone in the top 100, and probably someone in the top 150...  Though I do think that this is largely on hold pending the Dozier trade. If we walked away with Stewart/De Leon, that's two options for the rotation right now. Suddenly Santana and Santiago are much more expendable.