Article: Trade Flatline

[StormJH1]

I really don't think the Twins are alone in this delusion - the media and even well-informed bloggers (and blog posters) buy into it also. The "delusion" I'm talking about is that players on a last-place team with pedestrian (or worse) numbers garner significant trade interest around the league. I realized this the past few days in two examples. First, I was listening to Mad Dog Radio on Sirius, and he basically ran through all of the MLB teams for possible trade activity. Yeah, it's Mad Dog shooting from the hip, and it wasn't particularly researched or pre-prepared. But he got through about four or five other outfielders on the market (including Pence and Victorino), and when he got to the Twins he said "they don't have anyone you'd really WANT". That may be an overly simplistic view, but I think that was the prevailing wisdom. Span could help a lot of clubs, but he was never as desirable as some of the other names being openly shopped. Plus, Terry Ryan didn't really want to move him (and I do like him as a Twin, this was never about him personally).

 

The second moment was when I turned on the Liriano game last night and FSN North put his stats up. His record was something like 3-10 with an ERA in the mid 5.00's. Now, we as Twins fans remember what he was in '06, how he came back in 2010, and how he's been one of the best pitchers in the AL for short stretches this year. But when you put that all together and put up numbers like THAT, and then remember that you're trading a rental, not even the full player, should we really be surprised he didn't draw even a "B" level prospect? Probably not.

 

Now, I do think that guys like Willingham and, to a lesser degree, Morneau, Burton, and Perkins might have had some degree of value to other teams (and were not rentals). But I'm not at all surprised that TR didn't see enough value to move any of those guys, even though I'm sure there were offers. I can't "fault" him for making that decision, but it's frustrating when you hear TR reiterate over and over that he doesn't really believe in free agency, and doesn't seem to believe in the trade deadline either...yet the team continues to slide.

[jokin]

NTM the drafting and development of players has taken a nose dive.

And the identification and acquisition of players in trade and FA- as well, conversely misidentifying the value of those already in the org, has taken largely a turn to the crapper, as well:

 

1) Nishioka

2) Marquis

3) Young

4) Capps

5) Ramos

6) Thome (Twins got $20,000, Phillies got 2 prospects)

7) Garza

8) Lohse

9) Dickey (has been a mainstay SP for the Mets since Twins tendered him in 09)

10) Santana

11) Hardy

12) Hoey

13) Thinking that the opening day 2012 SP core staff was, at best, anything close to MLB-average-level.

[johnnydakota]

just get ready for TRyan to talk about the Aug waiver trades that can be made......am/was a fan of his the first run, but just think the game 'may' have passed him by. Conservative approach/not lovin youth combo is gonna leave this franchise in ruins

didnt bill smith deffer all trades and transactions to his advisor? terry ryan....and isint this the same guy who claimed we were not in a rebuilding year but competing for the title?

isnt this the same guy who traded jim thome for 20,000 dollars then 1 year later the phillys got baltimores #3and #8 prospect ?

isnt this the guy that got go-go for 2 time cy young winner johan santana?

terry ryan has not made 1 good trade ever , he did make 1 lucky trade in aj ....terry ryan felt and stated boof bonser was the key player in that trade...and he has lived on that 1 trade since..

terry ryans drafts always comes down to this "who can we draft that will take less money? who is hurt? who has slipped in the rankings?

terry ryan and radke need to go along with the rest of the 3 stooges and the @ss clown posse....they draft soft tossing controll pitchers ...why? they are cheaper to sign ....

they draft toolsly outfielders why cheaper to sign .....they draft hurt players,why they are cheaper to sign....

 

time for new blood new leadership and maybe a new owner....

[boney]

Print a copy of Nygard's top 50 prospects. In a few years see where the players are at. You can trade players for prospects, but will they develop into better players than what you had? In the meantime you have to field a team. A competitive team is preferable to an outfield with Hosken Powell and Willie Norwood. If they had traded outfielders, there would not be adequate replacements. Two years from now maybe. Perkins might be replaceable but I don't think there was even a b type player offered. The current minor leagues have plenty of c players in the lower levels.

 

I'm not saying that they need to move every tradeable player, and of course prospects (like every other sport) are just prospects until proven otherwise, and I understand the whole field a competitive team idea but this team has to figure out who they are and that is one of the 3 worst teams in the league for the last year and a half. IMO, it's going to be very easy for this org to fall into the trap of wanting to find bargain type players to stay competitive but they still won't have the pitching. As much as I appreciate TR I also remember the 90s

[TheLeviathan]

There's some truth to this point but the thing to keep in mind is that the pressure to trade at the deadline was not on the Twins – it was on the teams they were talking to. If the desperation of loading up for the stretch run didn't prompt opposing GMs to overpay, then there's little harm in waiting. It's possible the value of guys like Willingham and Burton will drop significantly in the next two months but probably not.

I may have muddled my point a bit - I don't disagree that we need a willing partner to pull this off. None of us know what was or wasn't on the table yet. But I am not so confident in JR that I would dismiss the idea that we left worthy offers on the table. Yes Pence fetched garbage but Broxton damn near fetched gold. I wouldn't endorse trading for the sake of it but I also don't endorse placing such a high value that nothing but absurdity is good enough. I want to believe we'd have jumped at one of those Cincy specs but I just don't have confidence in that.

 

If Hammer stays healthy he might still have this value in the offseason but I can't believe Burton will ever have been this valuable again. We will probably be able to look back in a year and know for sure, but it sure feels like we just whiffed on selling high again.

[Loosey]

Of all the non-moves yesterday, I'm most disappointed that we didn't move Burton. Span has been pretty consistent when healthy and Willingham's contract is so good that it didn't make sense trading him unless someone overpaid.

 

But Burton is a bit of journeyman having a career year and the Twins have a bunch of potential bullpen arms (heck, it might help Hendriks to pitch out of the pen for a month before starting again, ala Santana or Liriano). I know he's cheap but it would have been nice if he could have brought back something. Oh well, I expect Ryan will make some offseason moves.

I agree with you in theory, but in actuality what sort of return would Burton bring? He's a bullpen arm having a career season with a history of injuries. I'd rather keep the solid bullpen arm than take a middling double A reliever they'd get in return.

[snepp]

Burton, as a "non-closer" with limited back-to-back days usage, likely wouldn't have significant value. I'd rather keep him around on the cheap for next year than deal him away for a pittance.

[diehardtwinsfan]

didnt bill smith deffer all trades and transactions to his advisor? terry ryan........

really, where did you hear this?

[Brock Beauchamp]

didnt bill smith deffer all trades and transactions to his advisor?

In a word, no.

 

So the rest of your post is kind of pointless.

[RIP BYTO]

didnt bill smith deffer all trades and transactions to his advisor? terry ryan....and isint this the same guy who claimed we were not in a rebuilding year but competing for the title?

isnt this the same guy who traded jim thome for 20,000 dollars then 1 year later the phillys got baltimores #3and #8 prospect ?

isnt this the guy that got go-go for 2 time cy young winner johan santana?

terry ryan has not made 1 good trade ever , he did make 1 lucky trade in aj ....terry ryan felt and stated boof bonser was the key player in that trade...and he has lived on that 1 trade since..

terry ryans drafts always comes down to this "who can we draft that will take less money? who is hurt? who has slipped in the rankings?

terry ryan and radke need to go along with the rest of the 3 stooges and the @ss clown posse....they draft soft tossing controll pitchers ...why? they are cheaper to sign ....

they draft toolsly outfielders why cheaper to sign .....they draft hurt players,why they are cheaper to sign....

 

time for new blood new leadership and maybe a new owner....

I agree. If you take away the AJ trade from TR's resume what do you have left? He's a bum for a GM.

[diehardtwinsfan]

He's plucked quite a bit of talent through obscure trades. Buchanan, who he later flipped for Bartlett, Ortiz, etc. The AJ trade made him famous, but it wasn't as if he got lucky. He's done it before.

[TheLeviathan]

Burton, as a "non-closer" with limited back-to-back days usage, likely wouldn't have significant value. I'd rather keep him around on the cheap for next year than deal him away for a pittance.

My caution is this - just because we didn't do something doesn't mean we made the right decision. I prefer to think that we got crappy offers, but what the Reds gave up for Broxton (a guy with plenty of red flags himself) indicates that there was at least some willingness to shell out. Burton's best value was likely to be at the deadline, that doesn't mean we got an offer we should have taken (none of us know that), but just because we held him doesn't necessarily mean we got bad offers.

 

We may find out that we passed on some deals we'll later regret. Or we may find out we were right to just hang on to these guys. Our track record the last 5 years of sell low and buy high makes me very skeptical of that reaction.

[nicksaviking]

I agree. If you take away the AJ trade from TR's resume what do you have left? He's a bum for a GM.

I haven't defended Ryan much lately but he needs some defense here. There was already another thread showing how the Knoblauch trade is still paying dividends. Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewert was a great trade, Dave Hollins for David Ortiz was a shrewd move as was Roberto Kelly for Joe Mays. He traded Rick Aguilera to the Red Sox and got two prospects back knowing full well that Aguilera was going to re-sign with the Twins in the offseason.

 

You'd get little arguement that recent moves have been poor, but that's mostly due to inactivity. He has seemed to be gunshy which may have led to the indecisiveness and no/poor returns with the Hunter and Santana exits, but he certainly does have more than just one positive trade under his belt.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea on the answer, just trying to get a sense of what Ryan has done before, but other than the big trade, how many trades has he made where he got a guy that contributed for 3-5 years? I recall the Stewart trade with fondness, for example, but that was mostly short term. Also, how often has he traded a big time prospect for big time MLB player? I think that one is zero. I would expect his trends to continue....just trying to understand what they are.

[RIP BYTO]

I haven't defended Ryan much lately but he needs some defense here. There was already another thread showing how the Knoblauch trade is still paying dividends. Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewert was a great trade, Dave Hollins for David Ortiz was a shrewd move as was Roberto Kelly for Joe Mays. He traded Rick Aguilera to the Red Sox and got two prospects back knowing full well that Aguilera was going to re-sign with the Twins in the offseason.

 

You'd get little arguement that recent moves have been poor, but that's mostly due to inactivity. He has seemed to be gunshy which may have led to the indecisiveness and no/poor returns with the Hunter and Santana exits, but he certainly does have more than just one positive trade under his belt.

I'll give you the Kielty trade, but I can't give him any credit for Ortiz. He basically told Ortiz to take a hike and we all know what happened after that. Joe Mays? LOL nope!. Don't even know who he got for Aggy. His poor moves far out way his good moves in my opinion.

[TKGuy]

My gosh, people need to step away from the edge, it's going to take a couple of years