My look at the Twins for CTTP

[biggentleben]

I posted a Twins season in review this morning on Call To The Pen, and this afternoon my piece on the top 5 things the Twins need to focus on for the offseason will come out. Check if out, if you're interested!

[biggentleben]

Here's the offseason priority piece. Enjoy!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm perplexed that starting pitching didn't crack the top 5. I agree w/ number 1, but rotation should be 1b. Then Catcher and Short Stop. As a fan, I dont really care about payroll, I care that the manager and FOvplays the guys that earn the playing time, not the paycheck.

 

I don't see how one could expect the rotation could improve as a result of recovering from injuries.

 

Hughes has had one good season ever. Cannot be counted on. Zero upside. 4th or 5th starter on a good rotation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P

 

Kyle Gibson has had one good-ish season ever. Very little upside. 4th or 5th starter on a good rotation.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10123&position=P

 

Santiago Is Arb eligible and therefore is a step up from Nolasco but has a lower ERA than FIP for 2 unremarkable seasons. Tough to count on/ very little upside. 4th or 5th starter on the worst rotation in the AL. Just let him walk. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4026&position=P

 

Ervin Santana was their best pitcher, he's not improving. 3rd starter on a good rotation.

 

Tyler Duffey had a good half season and has one stupid pitch. As a starter he's Mike Pelfrey. Probably best suited as a reliever.

 

Trevor May is an enigma, but very realistically fits your rotation improvement as a result of improved health potential, but as an enigma with half a major league season as a starter, tough to count on, some upside though. Definitely worth the 5th rotation spot.

 

Berrios has tons of upside, maybe a new pitching coach solves him. If it works he's the number 2 starter on a good rotation. If it doesn't, get the Rochester shuttle going. Definitely worth the risk.

 

I have no idea where they find the firm and confident first and second spots in the rotation without giving up huge prospect resources. Definitely concerning, and requiring creative resource management.

[biggentleben]

That last paragraph you stated is why I had the financial bit as my #5. In order to do anything to upgrade the rotation, first the team needs to move some of the current members of the rotation and clear their salary, but to truly pursue a big time arm, they need more money than just that, and that may take moving their two hometown boys.

[jimmer]

#1: starting pitching.

#2: defense.

 

If those two arent fixed, doesnt much matter what the rest are.

[biggentleben]

 

#1: starting pitching.
#2: defense.

If those two arent fixed, doesnt much matter what the rest are.

 

Defense was one of my 5, but I think Buxton producing offensively and taking over center has given the Twins an excellent defensive outfield. It's really the left side of the infield that needs work as Dozier and Mauer are both above average defenders.

 

I had catching #2 behind the GM search due to Suzuki being a free agent and really not being adequate offensively or defensively to bring back. The in house options are solid backups, perhaps, but not starting caliber guys.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd love to bring in Hedges.  I think addressing defense at catcher and shortstop would go a long way assuming we have Vargas at first, Rosario-Buxton-Kepler in the outfield, and Polanco moving to second.

 

We could actually have a high end defensive team, even with Sano at third.  But those two spots are going to be hard to fill.

 

Best part of that plan - if you do go with an all-young rotation, you give them the best possible chance to succeed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That last paragraph you stated is why I had the financial bit as my #5. In order to do anything to upgrade the rotation, first the team needs to move some of the current members of the rotation and clear their salary, but to truly pursue a big time arm, they need more money than just that, and that may take moving their two hometown boys.

So, what? Jeremy Hellickson or bust?

 

Per MLB trade rumors

 

Brett Anderson (29)

Clay Buchholz (32) — $13.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Andrew Cashner (30)

Jhoulys Chacin (29)

Bartolo Colon (43)

Jorge De La Rosa (36)

R.A. Dickey (42)

Doug Fister (33)

Jaime Garcia (30) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout

Gio Gonzalez (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout

Jason Hammel (34) — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Jeremy Hellickson (30)

Rich Hill (37)

Derek Holland (30) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Scott Kazmir (33) — can opt out of remaining two years, $32MM on current contract

Mat Latos (29)

Colby Lewis (37)

Kris Medlen (31) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Charlie Morton (33) — $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Jon Niese (30) — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout

Ivan Nova (30)

Jake Peavy (36)

CC Sabathia (36) — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout

James Shields (35) — can opt out of remaining two years, $44MM on current contract

Alfredo Simon (36)

Edinson Volquez (33) — $10MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout

Jered Weaver (34)

C.J. Wilson (36)

[biggentleben]

 

So, what? Jeremy Hellickson or bust?

Per MLB trade rumors

Brett Anderson (29)
Clay Buchholz (32) — $13.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Andrew Cashner (30)
Jhoulys Chacin (29)
Bartolo Colon (43)
Jorge De La Rosa (36)
R.A. Dickey (42)
Doug Fister (33)
Jaime Garcia (30) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gio Gonzalez (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jason Hammel (34) — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jeremy Hellickson (30)
Rich Hill (37)
Derek Holland (30) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Scott Kazmir (33) — can opt out of remaining two years, $32MM on current contract
Mat Latos (29)
Colby Lewis (37)
Kris Medlen (31) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Charlie Morton (33) — $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Jon Niese (30) — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Ivan Nova (30)
Jake Peavy (36)
CC Sabathia (36) — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout
James Shields (35) — can opt out of remaining two years, $44MM on current contract
Alfredo Simon (36)
Edinson Volquez (33) — $10MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout
Jered Weaver (34)
C.J. Wilson (36)

 

Those aces that you want to pick up in trade have significant salaries as well. The free agent market is crud this year, but the trade market should be fairly solid.

[TheLeviathan]

Clearing room and roster space for 2018 isn't a bad plan at all.  2017 is just a terrible time to need starting pitching.  We're better off fixing what we can control for our pitchers (defense) and improve that way.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Those aces that you want to pick up in trade have significant salaries as well. The free agent market is crud this year, but the trade market should be fairly solid.

 

The problem is that the trade market is likely to be a frenzy given the state of the FA market.  We should be in on it and see what we can get, but I'm hesitant to unload in a trade because of bad timing.

[biggentleben]

 

The problem is that the trade market is likely to be a frenzy given the state of the FA market.  We should be in on it and see what we can get, but I'm hesitant to unload in a trade because of bad timing.

 

Then again, Ervin Santana would be highly desired by many teams in the league, so some of the ammunition that you need to make a trade for the starter you want could be acquired by taking advantage of that pitching market. Some of that pitching frenzy will be out of the Twins reach with Sale and Quintana getting a lot of attention and likely not going to traded in division. The Twins could zig while others zag by approaching guys like Archer, Arrieta, Shelby Miller, Greinke, Tyson Ross, and others that we aren't even thinking about that could end up hitting the market.

[beckmt]

Trading is a better way. Salary you cannot do anything about so if you cannot trade Dozier for a #2 starting pitcher or a youngster that has #1 upside and is close to the major leagues you have a couple of choices.

1. Hope Mauer is fed up and either requests a trade or retires (about 20%).

2. Non-tender a couple of the starters to leave room to have open tryouts next year and then go all-in in 2017 outseason to buy #1 starter.

 

Need to sort out which prospects will make it and trade some of the(in your opinion) lesser ones for some assets. Do not think with the turnover this will happen this year. So I expect 2017 will be somewhat written off as a tryout year and then 2018 is when I hope we can compete.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Then again, Ervin Santana would be highly desired by many teams in the league, so some of the ammunition that you need to make a trade for the starter you want could be acquired by taking advantage of that pitching market. Some of that pitching frenzy will be out of the Twins reach with Sale and Quintana getting a lot of attention and likely not going to traded in division. The Twins could zig while others zag by approaching guys like Archer, Arrieta, Shelby Miller, Greinke, Tyson Ross, and others that we aren't even thinking about that could end up hitting the market.

 

I've been vocal about putting Santana out there.  I'm also game to ask around about other starters, I just would rather not be giving up a ton of assets in a bad market.  I'd rather be getting the assets for what we have to offer.

[biggentleben]

 

I've been vocal about putting Santana out there.  I'm also game to ask around about other starters, I just would rather not be giving up a ton of assets in a bad market.  I'd rather be getting the assets for what we have to offer.

 

Yes, but then you're hoping like heck on guys like Gibson and Berrios pitching better next season to have a chance of being better in 2017. Of course, the starting rotation was league average with all the crud they went through. The bullpen was tremendously bad, as I put in the post.

[The Wise One]

 

So, what? Jeremy Hellickson or bust?

Per MLB trade rumors

Brett Anderson (29)
Clay Buchholz (32) — $13.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Andrew Cashner (30)
Jhoulys Chacin (29)
Bartolo Colon (43)
Jorge De La Rosa (36)
R.A. Dickey (42)
Doug Fister (33)
Jaime Garcia (30) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gio Gonzalez (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jason Hammel (34) — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jeremy Hellickson (30)
Rich Hill (37)
Derek Holland (30) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Scott Kazmir (33) — can opt out of remaining two years, $32MM on current contract
Mat Latos (29)
Colby Lewis (37)
Kris Medlen (31) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Charlie Morton (33) — $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Jon Niese (30) — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Ivan Nova (30)
Jake Peavy (36)
CC Sabathia (36) — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout
James Shields (35) — can opt out of remaining two years, $44MM on current contract
Alfredo Simon (36)
Edinson Volquez (33) — $10MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout
Jered Weaver (34)
C.J. Wilson (36)

Are you trying to prove or disprove the bust portion of the list. Anyone who could be good has an option.

[The Wise One]

There seems to be a fascination here about labeling pitchers 1,2,3,4, or worse.   One through four will all start the same number of games during the season. 1-4 really doesn't matter.  You need 2 pitchers that can go out and win a game for you, keep  you in the others. You need to have 2 pitchers that pitch well enough not to lose games.   The best teams have 3 pitchers that can go out and win games.  The Twins have Ervin. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Are you trying to prove or disprove the bust portion of the list. Anyone who could be good has an option.

prove. As you stated anyone who could be good has an option, I would add to it is as old or older than Ervin Santana who will be way past his prime when the team is in the contention window.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yes, but then you're hoping like heck on guys like Gibson and Berrios pitching better next season to have a chance of being better in 2017. Of course, the starting rotation was league average with all the crud they went through. The bullpen was tremendously bad, as I put in the post.

 

I'm not particularly worried about our record in 2017.  I think any improvement by the pitching staff is going to have to come by way of improving the defense and having young guys step up.

[biggentleben]

 

I'm not particularly worried about our record in 2017.  I think any improvement by the pitching staff is going to have to come by way of improving the defense and having young guys step up.

 

Oh, I agree, but much like my Braves fan brethren, there are many who want to see an immediate return and how to get big moves. I really think the strong relief arms in the upper minors will impact the effectiveness of the rotation as much as getting new arms in that rotation. Right now you're seeing a lot of "meh" arms in the bullpen, some of whom have had good results, but not many with overpowering stuff. The crop in AA/AAA has that kind of dominating stuff that can take over a game at the end.

[biggentleben]

So, I'm also putting up the Reds series for today. One of the major things that pitching staff needs is a guy who can simply eat some innings. Would an Ervin Santana for one of John Lamb/Cody Reed/Robert Stephenson plus a guy like Amir Garrett who is near-ready at AAA be enough if Cincy ate all the salary?

[Mike Sixel]

 

So, I'm also putting up the Reds series for today. One of the major things that pitching staff needs is a guy who can simply eat some innings. Would an Ervin Santana for one of John Lamb/Cody Reed/Robert Stephenson plus a guy like Amir Garrett who is near-ready at AAA be enough if Cincy ate all the salary?

 

Why is cincy not trying to get younger, and rebuild? 

[old nurse]

 

prove. As you stated anyone who could be good has an option, I would add to it is as old or older than Ervin Santana who will be way past his prime when the team is in the contention window.

Given the dearth of pitching and the relatively inexpensive costs of the option it would be highly unlikely any of the options would not be picked up.  That leaves Nova and Hellickson. Good pitchers, but hardly staff leaders.

[biggentleben]

 

Why is cincy not trying to get younger, and rebuild? 

 

They are, but they also have a load of starters who are ready and not able to eat innings. They could use a guy to eat innings because, frankly, their bullpen is brutal. Their starting staff had three guys eclipse 100 innings last year. Their GM has also mentioned pursuing a veteran starter to eat up some innings alongside their young starters in his piece on MLBTR. They're probably not going to go after a Greinke as they don't want someone who will clog a rotation spot for 5 years, but a guy who's there for 2 years as these guys gain their footing would be ideal, and Santana fits. It also gives the Twins MLB ready starting arms, not something abundant in the system. I also mentioned how they could use a better utility bench help, and that's not there on the free agent market, so perhaps expanding the deal to add Danny Santana or Eduardo Escobar could be advantageous.

 

Seriously, the Reds are one team that could jump quite a bit if you look at their roster. Injuries cut out a ton for them and their pitching staff was historically bad, mostly due to their bullpen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They are, but they also have a load of starters who are ready and not able to eat innings. They could use a guy to eat innings because, frankly, their bullpen is brutal. Their starting staff had three guys eclipse 100 innings last year. Their GM has also mentioned pursuing a veteran starter to eat up some innings alongside their young starters in his piece on MLBTR. They're probably not going to go after a Greinke as they don't want someone who will clog a rotation spot for 5 years, but a guy who's there for 2 years as these guys gain their footing would be ideal, and Santana fits. It also gives the Twins MLB ready starting arms, not something abundant in the system. I also mentioned how they could use a better utility bench help, and that's not there on the free agent market, so perhaps expanding the deal to add Danny Santana or Eduardo Escobar could be advantageous.

 

Seriously, the Reds are one team that could jump quite a bit if you look at their roster. Injuries cut out a ton for them and their pitching staff was historically bad, mostly due to their bullpen.

 

Thanks, I think they are worse than you do, but I understand. And, I had no idea their GM said that.

[biggentleben]

 

Thanks, I think they are worse than you do, but I understand. And, I had no idea their GM said that.

 

You can look on CTTP this afternoon for my Top 5 priorities for them that will be up, but really, theirs is more a "let young pitchers pitch" and "tell Bryan Price to stop making batting orders". They have a guy waiting in the wings that could be an excellent leadoff hitter in Winker to set the table for Peraza/Hamilton at 2 (the other being at 8), Votto, Mesoraco - if healthy, Duvall, Suarez, Cozart/Phillips (with Peraza playing 2B/SS each day, and one of the two getting the day off), Peraza/Hamilton, pitcher. That's a lineup that could score quite a few runs. They also have pretty solid outfield defense with Duvall and Hamilton to start both being very good defenders.

[gocgo]

Not a fan of the over 30 crowd.  Realistically, what would you expect in return for Erv?  No team is going to be willing to part with a young promising arm for him.  You could try to shore up short stop or catcher with someone young, but I don't see teams willing to give that for Erv.  I just don't see us being able to trade anyone including Dozier for anything of equal value, but if you are going to trade someone, it should be Erv as his productive years are waning and will be gone by the time we are in contention.  My thinking for next year is to keep Erv and throw the young guys in the rotation to see who swims.  Maybe Erv can teach them a thing or two.

[biggentleben]

 

Not a fan of the over 30 crowd.  Realistically, what would you expect in return for Erv?  No team is going to be willing to part with a young promising arm for him.  You could try to shore up short stop or catcher with someone young, but I don't see teams willing to give that for Erv.  I just don't see us being able to trade anyone including Dozier for anything of equal value, but if you are going to trade someone, it should be Erv as his productive years are waning and will be gone by the time we are in contention.  My thinking for next year is to keep Erv and throw the young guys in the rotation to see who swims.  Maybe Erv can teach them a thing or two.

 

I think you'll be surprised what teams are willing to give for Erv. I know Braves fans have talked about bringing him in as an inning-eater in the Braves rotation, and most are willing to give up a pretty decent prospect grouping for him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think you'll be surprised what teams are willing to give for Erv. I know Braves fans have talked about bringing him in as an inning-eater in the Braves rotation, and most are willing to give up a pretty decent prospect grouping for him.

 

I agree, I think we could possibly cash in by shopping him.

[The Wise One]

 

prove. As you stated anyone who could be good has an option, I would add to it is as old or older than Ervin Santana who will be way past his prime when the team is in the contention window.

With anyone that is a decent pitcher having an option you are failing to prove anything but bust with the free agent class. Thinking that anyone on that list is going to outduel  the likes of Kluber or Verlander on a consistent basis is in need of a competency evaluation