How the MLB standings would look if teams stuck with whoever they drafted

[DaveW]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-mlb-standings-would-look-if-teams-stuck-with-whoever-they-drafted/

 

Not a good look.

[Shane Wahl]

17 games difference. No biggie.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I dunno. That's kind of a crock, in my opinion. Not so sure about the "easily translated into wins and losses" part. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

I'm not saying I don't appreciate the sentiment. Just...I don't like the article is all. 

 

[spinowner]

Obviously there's a lot of speculation here, but according to this the complaints about the Twins giving up all their good players may have some basis.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-mlb-standings-would-look-if-teams-stuck-with-whoever-they-drafted/

[ashbury]

I'm not sure what conclusion to draw for the Twins.

 

The forecast is a 60-73 record this year instead of 49-84 (from a couple of days ago). That says we lost more talent than we gained.

 

OTOH that still wouldn't be a very good record; so we weren't amassing enough talent to be close to competitive.

 

It could be caused by poor talent assessment when acquiring players, or poor development, or both. Not enough by itself to indicate Total System Failure, but it does suggest two out of three phases are deficient, while not ruling out all three.

 

The other conclusion I draw is more general: this way of looking at it doesn't have any outliers. That's a bit surprising to me, in that ordinarily the components of some larger system are more extreme than the full system. No team here is at a .600 winning percentage, no team below .400. So no 100 win or loss teams, based on draft choices (by this analysis). In this view the draft is an equalizer, thus working about as intended.

[Willihammer]

 

The Reds and Braves’ records, dismal in reality, could have been much better if they hadn’t dealt away talent as part of long-term rebuilding schemes. The Nationals and Blue Jays, meanwhile, have aggressively upgraded their rosters over the past few seasons and have near-certain playoff berths to show for it..

The Twins are certainly closer to the Reds-Braves side of the spectrum, than the KC, Houston, ChiC side. This to me suggests two things- poor talent evaluation, and/or poor roster management forcing rebalances that net out to a loss of overall talent.

 

Its interesting that the majority of teams have lost out on talent. I wonder how much of that can be attributed to the BPA draft mindset.

[EddieMatthews]

Given the WAR numbers, it looks like the good teams acquire good players by Free Agency to supplement their draft / development.  That usually means spending money and having a good situation that a FA wants to join.  The Twins FA signings have been dismal, and expensive.  Torii was an exception in that he helped create a positive clubhouse climate.  

[DaveW]

For all the talk of Torii, it should be noted he was a  replacement level player last year, and even with his clubhouse influence the Twins still managed to be only the 8th best team in a 15 team league.

[gunnarthor]

 

For all the talk of Torii, it should be noted he was a  replacement level player last year, and even with his clubhouse influence the Twins still managed to be only the 8th best team in a 15 team league.

7th.  Not sure why you're always making that mistake.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2015.shtml

[BeenHazy]

I think the lack of outliers isn't so much evidence of any competitive balance mechanism at work as it is proof of the theory "the draft is a crapshoot".  All teams miss sometimes, no matter how brilliant they are, while everybody finds their occasional Dozier.  The upshot is that a pure reliance on amateur signings and development isn't a realistic path to a championship.

 

the source data used by 538 is interesting to look at.  When broken down into pitchers and position players, one outlier does emerge.  The entire product of that team's amateur acquisitions on the pitching side is sub-replacement level this season. Yeah, it's the Twins.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

I couldn't find a link showing who would have been the Twins projected team. Do international signings count? Are we basically swapping out Suzuki for Wilson Ramos and Grossman for Oswaldo Arcia? Matt Garza for Ervin Santana? Who am I missing that the Twins lost? Danny Vakencia? Chris Herrmann? Liam Hendricks? The Twins neither drafted nor signed David Ortiz he'd be a ding for the Mariners under this hypothetical.

 

This hypothetical also penalizes teams for winning a trade years ago after the players they acquired moved on. I'm sure many tears have been shed this year because AJ Pierzynski's .3 WAR was sacrificed for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. What a waste, those two haven't helped the Twins WAR at all this year!

[old nurse]

 

For all the talk of Torii, it should be noted he was a  replacement level player last year, and even with his clubhouse influence the Twins still managed to be only the 8th best team in a 15 team league.

Where is the team this year?  Damn Torii a 20 WAR player

[The Wise One]

 

I couldn't find a link showing who would have been the Twins projected team. Do international signings count? Are we basically swapping out Suzuki for Wilson Ramos and Grossman for Oswaldo Arcia? Matt Garza for Ervin Santana? Who am I missing that the Twins lost? Danny Vakencia? Chris Herrmann? Liam Hendricks? The Twins neither drafted nor signed David Ortiz he'd be a ding for the Mariners under this hypothetical.

This hypothetical also penalizes teams for winning a trade years ago after the players they acquired moved on. I'm sure many tears have been shed this year because AJ Pierzynski's .3 WAR was sacrificed for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. What a waste, those two haven't helped the Twins WAR at all this year!

The OP said drafted players  That leaves an OF of Span, Hicks, Revere, and Buxton. After the short experiment of a couple years ago at 2b, Rosario would be infield with Dozier Valencia, Plouffe Mauer and Morneau. Catching, AJ and Herrmann.  I did not see any other position players that were drafted but still playing.  If it were still the system of drafted players playing for 1 team for a career then the team would still be owned by the Griffiths and Cuddyer and Hunter would still have to be playing for an income. (jokin about the last two)   Starters Garza, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey and Dean.  Bullpen would be your choice of 8 of the following  Perkins, Neshek Tonkin, Chargois, Rodgers,  O"rourke, Manship, Swarzak, Wimmers, Achter and Darnell.  Maybe one of the relievers would be a starter instead of Dean. Maybe by now  Wheeler would be up. The 40-120 Mets record might be shattered with that pitching staff. Now if you include the "amateur " free agents, you can add the Keplers, Polancos, Sano, but I really don't think that 12-13 of the best batters on that list is going to overcome that pitching staff, even with Albers generously added as an amateur free agent because I can't think of any starter that the Twins signed as a free agent that would set up a scenario where the offense wouldn't have to be scoring double digit runs most games