Why hasn't Berrios been called back up?

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I wasn't saying you did it at all.  Just a similar example.  Sorry if it read differently.

Sorry for being thin-skinned. My fault.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you answered your own question here as to why Berrios hasn't been called back up, right? Almost all of us think Berrios gets the call when one of these guys, mostly Santana and /or Nolasco, gets shipped off.

 

I'm not going to get my hopes up about his starts in 2016, however. To me, he often looked shell-shocked last time around, and apparently still invites concerns by those who see him pitch with respect to his excitability and the quality of his stuff starting off a game.

 

I feel the same, though I think he'll be better this time than last time.

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I think you answered your own question here as to why Berrios hasn't been called back up, right? Almost all of us think Berrios gets the call when one of these guys, mostly Santana and /or Nolasco, gets shipped off.

 

I'm not going to get my hopes up about his starts in 2016, however. To me, he often looked shell-shocked last time around, and apparently still invites concerns by those who see him pitch with respect to his excitability and the quality of his stuff starting off a game.

If you can't see that he's gonna be an ace I don't what to tell you, if he can put a couple more MPH on his fastball he could be Cy Young caliber.

[bird]

 

It is great to have high standards, but why have standards so high for a young prospect to break into the rotation but so low to stick around in the Twins rotation, i.e. Nolasco, Milone, etc. Ricky Nolasco has pitched 312 innings for the Twins and been just awful.

My personal take is that if you think the guy is going to be good and he is decimating AAA over a longer period of time, there is nothing left for him to do but prove he can at this level. To me that likely involves struggling up here first.

 

 

Good point. I don't have an explanation, but I'd guess the thinking has a couple sides to it. First, Berrios is a long-term asset that they feel can better adapt to the final refinements in AAA as opposed to the bright lights of Fenway, for example. Where you see decimation, they see something slightly different.

 

Secondly, they're showcasing the guys they want to trade, sure, but perhaps they have a different assessment of the relative chances to see a good performance right this moment from Nolasco or Milone as opposed to Berrios. Prior to his last dismal start, Nolasco had pitched six innings in the previous three games while giving up 3 ER or less. I doubt, going into those three games, there were many people on TD willing to predict that we'd see three straight decent starts from Nolasco, or a terrific start from Milone. I'm not saying we should applaud the Twins for getting  a string of okay performances, but let's not turn around and totally trash them when Nolasco turns in a clunker. They may be wrong, and we may not like it, but there's a distinct possibility that the field people at AAA still believe that Berrios is highly likely to throw a clunker or two here in August, so let's just keep him here and work with him and let Nolasco play out his time here until the trade happens.

[bird]

 

If you can't see that he's gonna be an ace I don't what to tell you, if he can put a couple more MPH on his fastball he could be Cy Young caliber.

 

 

Well, then we're certainly blessed to have you here on TD, Foghorn Leghorn. I would not have been able to have this sort of scouting prowess in a million years. Pray tell, how long is this going to take?

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Well, then we're certainly blessed to have you here on TD, Foghorn Leghorn. I would not have been able to have this sort of scouting prowess in a million years. Pray tell, how long is this going to take?

Until his fastball gets a couple more MPH? No clue, could never happen

[bird]

 

Huh? What exactly are they telling Berrios by keeping him in AAA for 30 starts?

 

 

If you read the Rochester Chronicle article, you'll see that Berrios describes very clearly what it is that they've asked him to work on.

[d-mac]

 

Byron Buxton had 240 AA/AAA combined at bats when he was promoted to the Majors.  

 

Jose Berrios has thrown 306 innings in AA/ AAA and is still down there.  

 

Anyone else seeing a major flaw here?  

 

Good thing its Center Fielders that only have a certain amount of throws in their arm before the inevitable elbow surgery.. wait.. 

 

If only I wasn't out of likes for the day. I would like this post so hard. 

 

Edit: Spelling

[d-mac]

 

Mike, yes I did.  IDK, I'm not really sure what you're view is on what was said by the coaches.  Here's mine:

 

If both Twins pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen and Wings pitching coach Stu Cliburn say Berrios needs work on getting his curve more north/south, then he's in the right place.  We don't want to see a Duffey-drone [flat curve and inconsistent release point ] correct?

 

Sometimes, player development can be ugly.  Ugly, as in, you sign a few .500-type pitchers for the sole purpose of keeping young pitchers, like Berrios, in the MiLB.  We all saw what happened to Berrios and Meyers @ Houston and it was really unfair.  No sense letting them get destroyed.

 

It's been almost a week since the link you provided was posted.  Has the curveball issue with Berrios has been resolved?  Hope so.  I also hope that when Berrios [and Meyers? ] are recalled, Twins catchers and pitching coaches won't just sit on their butts and let young pitchers get killed.  These should be teaching moments.  

 

I have a hard time trusting the Twins' player development team, especially the pitching development team at this point in time. 

[bird]

 

We have the 15th ranked prospect in baseball, who has thrown a season and a half (300+ innings) between AA and AAA with about a 2.61 ERA, 9.7 k per 9, and a BB/9 of 2.5.

There is nothing in his numbers that shows he has anything to show or prove in AAA. And we have at least two pitchers in our rotation who have no trade value and are not part of the 2017 team, who will never be a top 4-5 starter on a good team.

And all of this was known on May 1.

Regarding other teams, I think we can safely assume that the White Sox would not have Berrios in the minors this long.

Carlos Rodon had almost the identical prospect ranking as Berrios at about the same age. He threw a total of 38 innings in the minor leagues. After his first six appearances he walked 19 batters in 22 innings. After his entire first season of 139 IP, he had a BB per 9 of 4.6. There is no way the Twins would have left him on the MLB roster that entire time.

Carson Fullmer is the same age as Berrios and came into the season 20 spots behind him in the rankings. He pitched a total of 87 innings between AA and AAA, with a 4.76 ERA and a 5.3 BB per 9.

 

 

Wait a sec, my friend...Carson Fulmer was the 8th selection overall in 2015. He came out of powerhouse Vandy and was advanced. He JUST got called up. From AA. Because the CWS have no better options. And he got ambushed in his start, and sports a lovely 8.10 ERA.

So you are correct, sir, the CWS, rightly or wrongly, would not have Berrios in AAA, but I sure wouldn't use them as a shining example of how teams do it right and compare their management of Fulmer to our management of Berrios.

 

And please go back and read that Chronicle article. People keep pointing to the stats as if nothing else counts at all. I agree that Berrios needs to be in MLB in a week or two, but let's not be so sure about how inexcusable this delay is on the basis of our perusal of the stats.

 

And Carlos Rodon was the 3rd player taken. The drop off after him was a cliff! He cannot be used as an example of what the Sox did right and the Twins are doing wrong. No scout out there had Berrios' ceiling anywhere near Rodon's ceiling, and most still don't.

[alarp33]

 

Wait a sec, my friend...Carson Fulmer was the 8th selection overall in 2015. He came out of powerhouse Vandy and was advanced. He JUST got called up. From AA. Because the CWS have no better options. And he got ambushed in his start, and sports a lovely 8.10 ERA.

So you are correct, sir, the CWS, rightly or wrongly, would not have Berrios in AAA, but I sure wouldn't use them as a shining example of how teams do it right and compare their management of Fulmer to our management of Berrios.

 

And please go back and read that Chronicle article. People keep pointing to the stats as if nothing else counts at all. I agree that he needs to be in MLB in a week or two, but let's not be so sure about how eddregious this delay is on the basis of our perusal of the stats.

 

And Carlos Rodon was the 3rd player taken. The drop off after him was a cliff! He cannot be used as an example of what the Sox did right and the Twins are doing wrong. No scout out there had Berrios' ceiling anywhere near Rodon's ceiling, and most still don't.

 

Heck of an attempt to move those goalposts.  

 

I did get a good chuckle out of this one though

 

"He JUST got called up. From AA. Because the CWS have no better options."

 

As if a team in the Twins position, all but eliminated since May, pitching Nolasco, Milone and Duffey have so many better options they can't give Berrios a shot

[tobi0040]

Good point. I don't have an explanation, but I'd guess the thinking has a couple sides to it. First, Berrios is a long-term asset that they feel can better adapt to the final refinements in AAA as opposed to the bright lights of Fenway, for example. Where you see decimation, they see something slightly different.

 

Secondly, they're showcasing the guys they want to trade, sure, but perhaps they have a different assessment of the relative chances to see a good performance right this moment from Nolasco or Milone as opposed to Berrios. Prior to his last dismal start, Nolasco had pitched six innings in the previous three games while giving up 3 ER or less. I doubt, going into those three games, there were many people on TD willing to predict that we'd see three straight decent starts from Nolasco, or a terrific start from Milone. I'm not saying we should applaud the Twins for getting  a string of okay performances, but let's not turn around and totally trash them when Nolasco turns in a clunker. They may be wrong, and we may not like it, but there's a distinct possibility that the field people at AAA still believe that Berrios is highly likely to throw a clunker or two here in August, so let's just keep him here and work with him and let Nolasco play out his time here until the trade happens.

If that is their thinking, I think they are really, really delusional. Ricky Nolasco's 5.50 ERA is more than a half run worse than any other qualified pitcher in baseball since 2014.

 

And that is before you consider he is owed $15-16m over the next 14 months.

 

I just don't think a string of good starts is going to change anyone's mind. There will be much, much better pitchers available, both on the trade market and internally.

[tobi0040]

Wait a sec, my friend...Carson Fulmer was the 8th selection overall in 2015. He came out of powerhouse Vandy and was advanced. He JUST got called up. From AA. Because the CWS have no better options. And he got ambushed in his start, and sports a lovely 8.10 ERA.

So you are correct, sir, the CWS, rightly or wrongly, would not have Berrios in AAA, but I sure wouldn't use them as a shining example of how teams do it right and compare their management of Fulmer to our management of Berrios.

 

And please go back and read that Chronicle article. People keep pointing to the stats as if nothing else counts at all. I agree that Berrios needs to be in MLB in a week or two, but let's not be so sure about how inexcusable this delay is on the basis of our perusal of the stats.

 

And Carlos Rodon was the 3rd player taken. The drop off after him was a cliff! He cannot be used as an example of what the Sox did right and the Twins are doing wrong. No scout out there had Berrios' ceiling anywhere near Rodon's ceiling, and most still don't.

I don't understand the fascination with draft position. I look at age of the player and prospect rankings, as they are more up to date.

 

Rodon and Berrios were in about the same position, rated 15-20 at age 22. Rodon was called up and allowed to struggle with his command. 19 BB's in his first 22 innings. A BB per 9 of 4.6 in his first 140 innings.

 

Fullmer was 22 and about 40th overall, well behind Berrios and basically the same age this year. He has pitched 230 fewer innings between AA and AAA, with worse numbers.

 

I am not saying this is the right or wrong approach. My happy medium is between the two. I think they rushed Fullmer for example. But I think Berrios has thrown about 80-100 innings too many in AA and AAA. I was simply responding to the comment from I believe Seth that we don't know if Berrios would be treated differently in other organizations. I think we can conclude, he would have been up and likely not sent back down so quickly with the White Sox.

[bird]

 

I did, and yet some still want to defend the reasoning.  Whatever.

 

 

I read the quotes too, including Berrios' self-critique. Some of us read it with the intent to understand what could possibly be the hang-up. You're going to have to help me with what, specifically, you find so indefensible about any one of the comments in the article, jimmer.

 

I don't know enough to agree with the reasoning, let alone to defend it, but I will defend the comments themselves as being based entirely on competent observations of the guy in action. No one logged into TD knows enough to agree with the comments that were made.

 

And yet some still want to attack the reasoning. Whatever.

 

[SwainZag]

 

If that is their thinking, I think they are really, really delusional. Ricky Nolasco's 5.50 ERA is more than a half run worse than any other qualified pitcher in baseball since 2014.

And that is before you consider he is owed $15-16m over the next 14 months.

I just don't think a string of good starts is going to change anyone's mind. There will be much, much better pitchers available, both on the trade market and internally.

 

You know who has the highest BABIP in baseball since 2014? Ricky Nolasco at an unsustainable .347 and his FIP and xFIP both sit at a much lower 4.21 and 4.19.  I know we love to rag on Ricky, but he has not been as bad as that ERA suggests.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You know who has the highest BABIP in baseball since 2014? Ricky Nolasco at an unsustainable .347 and his FIP and xFIP both sit at a much lower 4.21 and 4.19.  I know we love to rag on Ricky, but he has not been as bad as that ERA suggests.

 

He consistently underperforms, though....some pitchers are worse than their FIP year after year....

[jimmer]

 

You know who has the highest BABIP in baseball since 2014? Ricky Nolasco at an unsustainable .347 and his FIP and xFIP both sit at a much lower 4.21 and 4.19.  I know we love to rag on Ricky, but he has not been as bad as that ERA suggests.

It DOES seem that since he's moved to the AL, the amount of hard hits he's allowed has gone up which contributed to his BABIP against (much higher in AL than NL).  Just like some batters (Trout for example), can maintain higher than normal BABIP, some pitchers maintain higher BABIPs against.  Nolasco is an FIP outlier.

[alarp33]

 

If you read the Rochester Chronicle article, you'll see that Berrios describes very clearly what it is that they've asked him to work on.

 

I did read it, and I didn't see Berrios describing what they've asked him to work on.  I saw quotes from his Rochester Manager and Brad Steil.  

 

Sounds as if in his 8 inning 3 hitter, the 1st inning or two were not great.  

 

I guess we shouldn't expect pitchers to ever make it past AAA, because I'm not sure there's been a prospect who has been perfect in every inning, every outing.  

 

If these seem like reasonable expectations to you, for any prospect to be able to beat out Ricky Nolasco for a spot in the Majors, we probably won't agree on much.  

 

"If he pitches the way he did over his last six innings tonight then, yes, that's a legitimate question," said Red Wings manager Mike Quade, whose club went 7-2 on the homestand and improved to 59-42.

Those in positions of power are more perfectionists, however. Quade said innings one and two weren't big-league worthy, when the Chiefs hit at least four balls hard.

 

 

"We want him to be more consistent and execute his pitches," Steil said. "He's still only 22, he's still learning. Sometimes when guys are top prospects at such a young age, people wonder why they're not there (in the big leagues) yet. There's a lot to learn."

Sunday's start, a 3-2 victory over Norfolk, was an example of where work must be done, Steil said. Berrios pitched six scoreless innings, allowing four hits while walking two and striking out nine. But his day was over because he was already at 95 pitches.

"He ran the pitch-count up a little bit probably by not putting guys away earlier than he could have," Steil said.

[tobi0040]

You know who has the highest BABIP in baseball since 2014? Ricky Nolasco at an unsustainable .347 and his FIP and xFIP both sit at a much lower 4.21 and 4.19.  I know we love to rag on Ricky, but he has not been as bad as that ERA suggests.

To Mike's point, his career FIP is almost a full run lower than his ERA. We are talking about a 1,600 inning sample here.

 

And high BABIP over a long period of time likely means he is getting smoked out there. He has a 90 mph fastball and a curve he tends to hang. Getting smoked out there is kind of what my eyes have seen as well.

 

I guess we will have to wait five days with about the return we get. This was obviously a non tender/DFA even last offseason. I would have given them an ounce of credit if they at least tried him in the pen just to see, we had nothing to lose.

[tobi0040]

I guess we shouldn't expect pitchers to ever make it past AAA, because I'm not sure there's been a prospect who has been perfect in every inning, every outing.

You are dead wrong. Particularly in the 2011 to 2016 stretch, AAA has sort of been like the pearly gates.

 

You ain't making it to the Twins starting rotation unless you have been completely perfect.

[d-mac]

 

The game you watched in Houston was one game you watched in Houston. His ERA for the Twins so far in 2016 is 10.20 (17 earned runs in 15 innings).

 

I don't disagree about Nolasco. He sucks. Bring on the next example, he probably sucks too. That doesn't mean Berrios shouldn't have been sent down. He's done his work. Now it's time for him to come up, which he will in a matter of days.

 

Will he? That's not this braintrust's MO. 

[Vanimal46]

 

To Mike's point, his career FIP is almost a full run lower than his ERA. We are talking about a 1,600 inning sample here.

And high BABIP over a long period of time likely means he is getting smoked out there. He has a 90 mph fastball and a curve he tends to hang. Getting smoked out there is kind of what my eyes have seen as well.

I guess we will have to wait five days with about the return we get. This was obviously a non tender/DFA even last offseason. I would have given them an ounce of credit if they at least tried him in the pen just to see, we had nothing to lose.

Remember in March when they proposed the idea of moving Nolasco to the pen, and his agent publicly said if Nolasco wasn't a starter, they would request a trade out of Minnesota? 

Let's make him a bullpen arm. 

[tobi0040]

I did read it, and I didn't see Berrios describing what they've asked him to work on.  I saw quotes from his Rochester Manager and Brad Steil.  

 

Sounds as if in his 8 inning 3 hitter, the 1st inning or two were not great.  

 

I guess we shouldn't expect pitchers to ever make it past AAA, because I'm not sure there's been a prospect who has been perfect in every inning, every outing.  

 

If these seem like reasonable expectations to you, for any prospect to be able to beat out Ricky Nolasco for a spot in the Majors, we probably won't agree on much.  

 

"If he pitches the way he did over his last six innings tonight then, yes, that's a legitimate question," said Red Wings manager Mike Quade, whose club went 7-2 on the homestand and improved to 59-42.

Those in positions of power are more perfectionists, however. Quade said innings one and two weren't big-league worthy, when the Chiefs hit at least four balls hard.

 

 

"We want him to be more consistent and execute his pitches," Steil said. "He's still only 22, he's still learning. Sometimes when guys are top prospects at such a young age, people wonder why they're not there (in the big leagues) yet. There's a lot to learn."

Sunday's start, a 3-2 victory over Norfolk, was an example of where work must be done, Steil said. Berrios pitched six scoreless innings, allowing four hits while walking two and striking out nine. But his day was over because he was already at 95 pitches.

"He ran the pitch-count up a little bit probably by not putting guys away earlier than he could have," Steil said.

On a more serious note. I think these are the type of comments a AAA coach gives anytime the local paper asks him about why a player has not been promoted. They have to respond with a somewhat coherant reason why. They can't say, "beats the hell out of me, he should have been up two months ago". They usually talk of developing that third or fourth pitch, or control. I have to admit this was an interesting reason, the need to basically be consistently good every single inning for a string of starts.

[bird]

 

Heck of an attempt to move those goalposts.  

 

I did get a good chuckle out of this one though

 

"He JUST got called up. From AA. Because the CWS have no better options."

 

As if a team in the Twins position, all but eliminated since May, pitching Nolasco, Milone and Duffey have so many better options they can't give Berrios a shot

 

 

I'm sorry I couldn't have made my point more clear. Happy you got a chuckle as it flew over your head. 

 

Seriously, I'm in agreement about Berrios, but not confidently so. People make performance predictions that become laughable all the time around here, so I apologize for having so little faith in you and everyone else who is so certain that Berrios wouldn't have been an embarrassment at Target Field in June and July.

 

And frankly, I think anyone on here who is confident that it would have been best for Berrios, or the Twins for that matter, to have been brought him up and kept him up back when he was originally promoted is, well, overconfident. It's about more that the stat line, and the kid was visibly unnerved during that one start, right? So I don't know, maybe there's a method to the madness, who knows?

 

As for using Fulmer's and Rodon's management, and the decisions to promote them, as an instructive comp to Berrios? Self-explanatory. No goalposts involved at all.

 

 

[SweetOne69]

To those that are saying that they shouldn't wait for the deadline and should demote Duffey now and recall Berrios.

 

If they do that and then they trade Nolasco, Milone or Santana, then who do they call up to fill that spot in the rotation?  They can't recall Duffey for 10 days.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To those that are saying that they shouldn't wait for the deadline and should demote Duffey now and recall Berrios.

 

If they do that and then they trade Nolasco, Milone or Santana, then who do they call up to fill that spot in the rotation?  They can't recall Duffey for 10 days.

 

does it matter who gets 1 start?

[Mr. Brooks]

I think Duffey, at 25, needs to make his adjustments in the big leagues. He's been back down and made some adjustments. Now he has to go through the ups and downs here. Berrios, at barely 22, was up here, struggled incredibly, got sent down, has made some adjustments and now should be up within a week to ten days. At this point, I'd make the same argument with him. Unless he's just completely lost in a bunch of starts, he now will need to make the adjustments in the big leagues.

 

I'd be OK with DFAing one or both of Milone and Nolasco on 8/2, but I don't mind them trying once last-ditch effort to get anything for them.

Wait, aren't you the guy always saying that age to level doesn't matter with these guys?

[d-mac]

 

You are dead wrong. Particularly in the 2011 to 2016 stretch, AAA has sort of been like the pearly gates.

You ain't making it to the Twins starting rotation unless you have been completely perfect.

 

Dead wrong? Pearly Gates? I see what you did there. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I see that some here think this explanation is somehow "dumb". Sounded pretty smart to me. And let's remember, the Twins don't exactly feel compelled to bring players up so "we" can see how ready they are. They're not going to be any more impressed with OUR opinions about a player's development than some of us are about theirs.

Well, some of us also don't feel compelled to fully trust this team on the nuances of player development, given the last 5 years.

[tobi0040]

Well, some of us also don't feel compelled to fully trust this team on the nuances of player development, given the last 5 years.

Said a little nicer than I would have!

 

For example, don't "fully trust"