Steroids or bust?

[curt1965]

Maybe it's just the terrible, rotten, lousy, and disgusting season the Twins are having, but watching E. Santana sucking again tonight against the Angels reminds me of the many players using MLB to enrich themselves with their steroid usuage.

Off the top of my head, Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Melky Cabrera, Dee Gordon, Bartolo Colon, Jhonny Peralta, Marlon Byrd (X2), and our very own Ervin Santana, are the current players that have used steroids, got caught, but still went on to secure tremendous contracts that more than likely set them up for life. Any why not? 80 games or a one year suspension is a "reasonable" price to pay, in the big picture.

In my opinion, Ervin Santana was an average pitcher with average career stats. He was known to have a tear in his elbow, but decided not to have the famous Tommy John surgery, instead opting to rest his arm. Oh, and he signed a 4-year, $54 million dollar deal with the pitching needy Twins. But we all know what happened next.

Now, he is becoming nearly unwatchable and unusable. And I'm sure he feels just terrible....... I particularly like watching his remorse while he sits on the bench when not pitching.

It's no wonder that baseball is losing fans by the boatload.

[Twodogs]

Yeah I was one of the people who predicted that Ervin would go down with an arm injury because he isn't able or actually doesn't need to juice at this point in time.  But I was at the game tonight as well as last night and I will be there tomorrow also.  What I saw out of Santana was the fact that he was able to throw 92-93 pretty consistently, so I really don't think his arm is bothering him; It's that his pitches are way too hittable right now and that is most likely caused by poor location of his pitches.  After watching tonight I would think that Santana has a shot at fixing his ailes a little bit.  What I have liked over the last few games with Buxton, Kepler and Grossman out there is their ability to actually catch the ball. 

[jorgenswest]

His fastball has never been a plus pitch and the velocity hasn't changed. His out pitch was his very good slider. It isn't nearly as effective this year though he is needing to use it more often. The result is fewer swinging strikes and batters swinging out of of the zone less often. He also has fewer first pitch strikes, but that may be batters not being fooled by a first slider out of the zone.

 

If he can't consistently find his once very good slider, he will not be a useful pitcher in the rotation of a winning team.

[Twodogs]

Watching the Angels and the last two starters has amazed me as far as, they have no velocity hardly at all.  Weaver was 84 all night and Chacin was 88, he his 90 a couple of times.  Their pitchers make the Twins look like they have flamethrowers.  ha ha

[Seth Stohs]

I don't like this take... nothing personal.

 

These guys have taken tests every year, multiple times a year, for most if not all of their careers. The steroid that Santana was busted for isn't new and players have been getting busted with it for years. If he had been taking it all along, that would have come out. 

 

Nothing in his stats jump out as significantly better before he signed that contract than before. He's been average at worst his whole career with some very solid years in there. 

 

I get it. They may eventually agree to cancel or void deals in the future...

 

My bigger point and why I am generally against signing free agent pitchers to long deals no matter how good they are... they're 31-33 at the start of their deals. Those guys don't typically get better. That's the reality of aging.

 

Also, he was fine late last year, so he'll be fine. I think the bigger issue was that he cut his hair. 

[Everyday Eddy]

It is interesting that there is a somewhat rational,    albeit immoral,    train of thought that can get these guys to say "well it sucks that my character might take a hit, but that 7 figure salary I pull off will sure help me and my family."    Then they can deny deny deny and say it was a mistake.    Character takes a hit,   but the majority of the big contract remains guaranteed.    No player would ever admit this,    but it has to be something players wrestle over.

[bluechipper]

 

Watching the Angels and the last two starters has amazed me as far as, they have no velocity hardly at all.  Weaver was 84 all night and Chacin was 88, he his 90 a couple of times.  Their pitchers make the Twins look like they have flamethrowers.  ha ha

The Angels are doing a great job of wasting Mike Trout's greatness so far. Let's see if they can keep it up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

These guys have taken tests every year, multiple times a year, for most if not all of their careers. The steroid that Santana was busted for isn't new and players have been getting busted with it for years. If he had been taking it all along, that would have come out. 

Why would we assume that further information would have come out about Ervin Santana?  Most guys busted for PEDs don't have any further information come out.  Do you assume all of these guys were absolutely clean until just before their first failed test?  That seems naive.

 

There are a lot of possibilities here.  I suspect every PED guy also uses a masking agent to lower the risk of a failed test.  It's possible that Santana's masking agent failed itself (or its usage wasn't timed properly) for the first time during the spring of 2015.

 

Also, while testing has been around for years, there have been changes.  There has been a big bump in testing frequency since 2014:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15475310/number-major-league-baseball-drug-tests-increasing-year-year

 

Obviously Santana wasn't surprised by the timing of his test, as I assume it was the mandatory one that all players take during spring training, but it definitely could explain how he managed to avoid testing positive before.  It is much easier to time your periods of use (and successful application of your masking agent) when you know testing is less frequent.

 

While we will never know the whole story, it seems rather naive to assume Ervin Santana only started using shortly before he got busted.  Best case, given all the unknowns, I think that scenario gets no better than equal odds compared to the two other primary scenarios (one, that he was a long-time user, or two, that he took a tainted supplement).

 

EDIT: That said, I agree PEDs probably don't have much bearing on his past or future performances.

[jorgenswest]

Santana's performance this year is in line with other 33 year old pitchers who were league average from 26-31. In a group of 25 pitchers with similar performance and use through age 31, the median age 33 performance was an ERA+ of 85. Santana currently is at 83.

 

It is true that 40% of that group continued to perform as a mid-rotation starter, the norm is a drop in performance. The decline continues as only 32% of the starter were mid rotation at age 34 and 16% at age 35. At age 34, 32% were no longer starters and that number increases to 60% at 35.

 

We are getting the Santana we shoud have expected. We can hope that he is among the rare league average pitcher than continues to pitch well ages 32-35. That isn't the norm though.

[Vanimal46]

It is interesting that there is a somewhat rational, albeit immoral, train of thought that can get these guys to say "well it sucks that my character might take a hit, but that 7 figure salary I pull off will sure help me and my family." Then they can deny deny deny and say it was a mistake. Character takes a hit, but the majority of the big contract remains guaranteed. No player would ever admit this, but it has to be something players wrestle over.

Absolutely. It's a moral decision that any athlete has to make whether or not to cheat the system. Especially if the player is in a contract year, or in Byrd's case, hanging on way past his expiration date to cash in 1 more time.

 

I've said this in a past steroids thread. The financial reward for steroid users is much greater than the risk at this point. Until contracts are able to be voided, or penalizes their bank accounts more, this is going to be a never ending cycle.

[curt1965]

I don't like this take... nothing personal.

 

These guys have taken tests every year, multiple times a year, for most if not all of their careers. The steroid that Santana was busted for isn't new and players have been getting busted with it for years. If he had been taking it all along, that would have come out. 

 

Nothing in his stats jump out as significantly better before he signed that contract than before. He's been average at worst his whole career with some very solid years in there. 

 

I get it. They may eventually agree to cancel or void deals in the future...

 

My bigger point and why I am generally against signing free agent pitchers to long deals no matter how good they are... they're 31-33 at the start of their deals. Those guys don't typically get better. That's the reality of aging.

 

Also, he was fine late last year, so he'll be fine. I think the bigger issue was that he cut his hair.

 

I respectfully disagree. That's fine that you do not like my take on the subject, it's only my opinion. The fact is that Santana is 1-6 with an ERA of 7.71 in his last 5 starts. And to your point that he was fine late last year-how does that correlate to this year? And I totally don't understand what his hair cut has to do with anything......

[Twodogs]

 

Why would we assume that further information would have come out about Ervin Santana?  Most guys busted for PEDs don't have any further information come out.  Do you assume all of these guys were absolutely clean until just before their first failed test?  That seems naive.

 

There are a lot of possibilities here.  I suspect every PED guy also uses a masking agent to lower the risk of a failed test.  It's possible that Santana's masking agent failed itself (or its usage wasn't timed properly) for the first time during the spring of 2015.

 

Also, while testing has been around for years, there have been changes.  There has been a big bump in testing frequency since 2014:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15475310/number-major-league-baseball-drug-tests-increasing-year-year

 

Obviously Santana wasn't surprised by the timing of his test, as I assume it was the mandatory one that all players take during spring training, but it definitely could explain how he managed to avoid testing positive before.  It is much easier to time your periods of use (and successful application of your masking agent) when you know testing is less frequent.

 

While we will never know the whole story, it seems rather naive to assume Ervin Santana only started using shortly before he got busted.  Best case, given all the unknowns, I think that scenario gets no better than equal odds compared to the two other primary scenarios (one, that he was a long-time user, or two, that he took a tainted supplement).

 

EDIT: That said, I agree PEDs probably don't have much bearing on his past or future performances.

Trevor Graham is the former coach of Tim Montgomery and Marion Jones, track athletes, he was the one who sent the unidentified steroids to USADA that uncorked the whole BALCO thing, he was either mad at someone or let go as coach, but nonetheless, he sent them the stuff.  BALCO was manufacturing or at least distributing steroids that were not detectable by the current testing methods at the time.  I don't even think A-rod failed a test, I think MLB proved that he was buying them from the doctor in Florida fiasco and maybe Ryan Braun was a part of that also??  Nonetheless, why would anyone think that they aren't making more undetectable steroids at this point in time??

 

I was a USADA athlete tester this last weekend at the world cup (wrestling) at the Forum, USADA keeps the samples now for olympic athletes for 8 years.  If they retest their sample 8 years from now and they fail it then, then they strip them of their awards and medals.  I'm not sure if MLB is keeping samples for 8 years, but that is what USADA is doing to try and assure no cheating.  Even masking agents will get uncovered over time, if an athlete has said masking agent in his system it will be deemed that he was cheating. 8 years later in a baseball career?  what do they care at that point in time?  they've already made their money probably.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

this is going to be a never ending cycle.

 

I agree that it will be a never-ending cycle, but for very different reasons.  People don't act rationally, and athletes in particular don't seem to act rationally about PEDs.  I think most athletes (and fans) overrate the positive effects of PEDs, and they do them for much less tangible benefits than increasing their salaries.

[Twodogs]

 

I was also at the game last night and agree with this assessment.  The problem is location, not velocity. Everything was up. I think Santana has a shot at getting back to being what he's been before - a solid number 3 starter in a good rotation or a mediocre number 2 in a lousy rotation. Frankly, that would pretty much be in line with a 4 year, $54 million deal.  It ain't great, but it looks to be a much higher realistic upside than either Hughes or Nolasco. 

Nolasco was able to get up to 93 - 94 on Monday also, seemed like he actually got faster as the game went on.  with that kind of velocity it makes his breaking ball pretty devastating and I think that is why his strikeout to walk ratio looks pretty good this year as opposed to the years he was injured.  I think if he keeps up that velocity he will be pretty good, kind of like before all of the injuries.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

 

I respectfully disagree. That's fine that you do not like my take on the subject, it's only my opinion. The fact is that Santana is 1-6 with an ERA of 7.71 in his last 5 starts. And to your point that he was fine late last year-how does that correlate to this year? And I totally don't understand what his hair cut has to do with anything......

 

He's been bad over that time. No question about it. I think it has more to do with other things, age, team makeup, defense, maybe some physical stuff... than with anything steroids related.

 

His hair cut has absolutely nothing to do with it... That was supposed to be funny, though I think his hair cut has about the same amount to do with his struggles as steroids. 

[DaveW]

The reality is, when the Twins signed Santana he was best case scenario going to be a solid #3 moving forward, at worst he looked to be a #4/#5. He pitched like a #3 last year and this year is pitching like a 5. He is what he is. I don't blame the steroids for it.

[mikelink45]

The issue that really needs to be raised is the fact that teams cannot void contracts when steriod use is caught.  why not?  This is where the real punishment will come.  Smart business men sign foolish contracts for over the hill players and steriod users and have no recourse?  Come on!

[Platoon]

He's been bad over that time. No question about it. I think it has more to do with other things, age, team makeup, defense, maybe some physical stuff... than with anything steroids related.

 

His hair cut has absolutely nothing to do with it... That was supposed to be funny, though I think his hair cut has about the same amount to do with his struggles as steroids.

 

Tell that to Sampson!