How many home run will Joe Mauer hit in 2012?

[Parker Hageman]

Made an informal bet via Twitter on the total number of home runs Joe Mauer will hit in 2012. I say nine. What say you?

[denarded]

16. And I'm predicting half will come in a 30 day span

[Steve Lein]

15, with only 3 of them at Target Field.

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

I'll give him 11. He seems to be taking his offseason workouts more seriously, especially since he's healthier now and coming off a terrible season. However, there's no way that Target Field will be any more forgiving for him.

[Thrylos]

I think that Mauer will play with a huge chip on his shoulder this season. I say 20

[Seth Stohs]

I've been telling people 9-13, so I'll go with 11.

[Shane Wahl]

14. I wonder how many he hit down the right field line at the Metrodome in 2009? Depending on that number, I could go up or down.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

17. Most on the road, of course, but I bet 4 at Target Field.

[Loosey]

Assuming the concrete has dried now at Target Field I'll go with 14.

[NHDadUmp]

I agree with Thrylos98, but 24.

[Shane Wahl]

5 were truly pulled in 2009, so I will stick with my guess of 14.

[James Richter]

I think he can get to about 15, with at least 2/3 coming on the road. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some disproportionate number of them on the South Side. At Target Field, he's as likely to hit one into the planters down the LF line or to dead CF as he is to pull one.

[Cody Christie]

I'm going to say 13 but I feel like that might be too much.

[TwinsFaninMaryland]

I think Target Field is going to lock him into a gap-hitting doubles mentality, so I'm going low. Nine dingers, with seven to the opposite field.

[John Bonnes]

If Parker's 9 was the over/under, I'd have trouble picking, but I think I'd take the under. I'll say 8.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm going with 15.

[Vegeta]

I am gonna go with 21

[bteichr]

I say he hits 12.

[zchrz]

The dome played into his big season but I think he can hit 13-18 a year consistently so ill say 15 and who knows that number could go up a bit the less he catches.

[The Skipper]

I have to go with 7

[2wins87]

12, two at home

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Depends on where he plays. If he catches 120+ games, I'll say 8-10. If that number is around 80, with more time at 1B and DH, maybe 15. I think a full season of catching is a drain on Mauer's power numbers

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

Someone should average out all our guesses. Perhaps I should just go ahead and do that...

[Nicholas Mueller]

If you add up all the homeruns he has hit, which I believe is 84, and then divide it by 8 which is the years he's been in the show, you get 10.5.... So I'll say 10. Maybe 15-20 if he's really hitting the ball well.

[TwinsGuy55422]

I am going to guess 19. Obviously I think most of those will come on the road, but I think he will have a fire lit under him and if he is healthy I think he will have a great season. More importantly, I look for him to have at least 40 doubles.

[JB_Iowa]

Ten. I was going to go with 12 in 2012 but I think that's too high.

[BD57]

8 ... I just have a feeling that playing 81 games @ Target affects the way he hits all the time.

[Ultima Ratio]

16 (10 away, 6 home)

[Connecticut Twins Fan]

21. Better OBP from the first two hitters will put more pressure on pitchers, forcing them to pitch to Mauer from the stretch more often.

[jimbo92107]

More interesting than Mauer's actual home run total is what factors people think will affect his total. The one year that he actually hit a serious load of taters was when he was relatively healthy and still in the Metrodome, where his opposite field power put a bunch over the left field fence.

 

Today's Joe Mauer is a couple years older, has had problems with his back, his knee, and his shoulder. He's playing at a park where the left field fence is too far to reach with his opposite field swing, which means he would have to turn on inside pitches. We've seen in the past that pitchers are loathe to give Mauer anything inside, which means his opportunities to turn on inside stuff will be very limited. That means Mauer will probably again be relegated to hitting most of his long balls to the opposite field.

 

That said, Mauer has the ability to control the strike zone. If he punishes pitchers with enough of his patented down-the-line doubles, maybe they'll get desperate and pitch him inside. If that happens, we could see the joyful cranking of some very hard-hit dingers to right field. Playing into that scenario is Mauer's history of being a line drive hitter, which means most pitchers don't expect him to elevate the ball. They pitch him inside expecting at worst a line drive single to right. Joe is going to have to be ready to do more than that. Can he load up for inside pitches? Will he recognize the hitting situation and take advantage?

 

I think Mauer is a smart enough hitter to start turning on inside pitches. I'm going high with my estimate. 22 homers in 2012, if he's reasonably healthy. Half of them to right field.