Draft stuff

[gunnarthor]

Both Anderson and Manning would be fine with me.  I'm not sure they'll be there at 14 but they are definitely the high upside picks you'd want, even if it is a gamble.

[biggentleben]

 

Both Anderson and Manning would be fine with me.  I'm not sure they'll be there at 14 but they are definitely the high upside picks you'd want, even if it is a gamble.

 

One or both could definitely be there, though. It gets tough to see who would slide to have them move up. They're in a group with Garrett and Wentz that will likely start to come into play around the 10th pick, but it's hard to push them ahead of there.

[Hrbowski]

Anderson has some red flags: Has been sidelined with an oblique injury this spring, signability questions, etc. Forrest Whitley would probably be my personal pick at #15 if that was how it fell out, and even though tall pitchers' bodies often break down at a young age there have been a few like Wainwright and Halladay who are very similar to Whitley. Manning, Connor Jones, and Logan Shore would likely be under serious consideration there.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

More importantly...is there ANY talk of top names in the '17 Draft?! Since we are currently drafting #2 then, and will likely at least stay top #5 then. I sure hope that is a top heavy draft of obvious picks.

LOL, a little too far ahead but the best two HS positional prospects I've seen:  SS Mark Vientos is on the short list - potential 5 tool middle infielder and  1B/OF Alejandro Toral - light tower power potential with an advanced plate approach and plus contact skills.  Both played on the same underaged WWBA team last year and will be back in 2016 to try for the championship.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Logan Shore would likely be under serious consideration there.

Logan's a little underwhelming at that point, high floor/low ceiling, reminds me of a Mike Leake/Kyle Gibson type starter (not body type or stuff) in the regards that he should be a serviceable MLB starter (#3/#4).  Its nothing to hang your hat on but definitely very helpful to the organization.  Just depends how much you want to roll the dice with your first pick.

[Hrbowski]

 

Logan's a little underwhelming at that point, high floor/low ceiling, reminds me of a Mike Leake/Kyle Gibson type starter (not body type or stuff) in the regards that he should be a serviceable MLB starter (#3/#4).  Its nothing to hang your hat on but definitely very helpful to the organization.  Just depends how much you want to roll the dice with your first pick.

Yeah, Shore would be the safest pick and he is used to pitching in the cold. If the Twins go college player I think Shore would be their guy, so that is why I threw that name in there.

[Hrbowski]

 

LOL, a little too far ahead but the best two HS positional prospects I've seen:  SS Mark Vientos is on the short list - potential 5 tool middle infielder and  1B/OF Alejandro Toral - light tower power potential with an advanced plate approach and plus contact skills.  Both played on the same underaged WWBA team last year and will be back in 2016 to try for the championship.

JJ Schwarz, Haggen Danner, Jeren Kendall, and Brendan McKay are all high on the top 50 I am working on for next year.

[alarp33]

 

Yeah, Shore would be the safest pick and he is used to pitching in the cold. If the Twins go college player I think Shore would be their guy, so that is why I threw that name in there.

 

Taking a 3rd round talent at 15 because he went to high school here would be the most Twins move ever

 

 

[Hrbowski]

 

Taking a 3rd round talent at 15 because he went to high school here would be the most Twins move ever

Third round talent? He will be gone before we pick in the second round.

[gunnarthor]

Does anyone remember Mitch Brown?  The rumors were the Twins would take him with one of their supplemental picks in the 1st round.  Instead, they passed on him 5 times and he was eventually picked by Cleveland.  They'll take who they think is BPA.  

[alarp33]

 

Third round talent? He will be gone before we pick in the second round.

 

The fact that he might be gone at 56 is not a reason to draft him 15th.  He will be nowhere near the BPA at 15.  

 

I admittedly get most of my scouting notes from ESPN as I'm an insider there, but Keith Law has said Shore is nowhere near a 1st round talent.. not even close to his top 50 draft prospects

[alarp33]

Speaking of local guys, does anyone know if Austin Athmann (JR), C at the U is considered a prospect at all?  

 

Good size (6'2" 210lbs) and is hitting .393/.463/.710 with 11 home runs and 13 doubles in 38 games.  

 

 

 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

The fact that he might be gone at 56 is not a reason to draft him 15th.  He will be nowhere near the BPA at 15.  

 

I admittedly get most of my scouting notes from ESPN as I'm an insider there, but Keith Law has said Shore is nowhere near a 1st round talent.. not even close to his top 50 draft prospects

Top 50 drafted players don't always coincide with Top 50 BPA.  Personally, I'm Baseball America guy and local self scouting in FL.  

 

Barring injury or something else unforeseen, Shore should be selected in the first two rounds.  MLB.com has him at #40 BPA and Baseball America has him as the 31st BPA :

 

Shore has a good understanding of his craft and pounds the strike zone with his whole arsenal. His best pitch is his plus changeup, which he liberally uses against lefthanders and righthanders alike. His fastball sits in the low 90s with good life and excellent command. His slider shows shape, but sometimes breaks early and could be a hittable pitch at the next level. Listed at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, Shore has some physicality to him, and could develop into a workhorse starter in the big leagues.
 

 

 

Yes you are correct in that a player that might be gone by 56 is ABSOLUTELY no reason to draft him at 15.  As a Cubs fan, I vividly remember this playing out as the Cubs drafted a DII pitcher in Hayden Simpson at #16 in 2010 even though he was a consensus 3rd-5th Rounder but the GM Jim Hendry was worried he wouldn't be there with their next selection because the helium he got right before the draft.  Needless to say, it was a waste of money and draft selection.

[alarp33]

 

Top 50 drafted players don't always coincide with Top 50 BPA.  Personally, I'm Baseball America guy and local self scouting in FL.  

 

 

Of course not.  But picking at 15 you damn well better get a Top 50 BPA.  Reaching for a local kid with the ceiling of a 4/5 starter at 15 would be crazy.  

 

If you're picking in the mid 30s or something it might be a different story.  

[biggentleben]

 

Third round talent? He will be gone before we pick in the second round.

 

He'll be gone before the second round, most likely.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It depends.  If he goes under slot and you can pick up some higher ceiling prep guys later, then by all means do it.  It isn't always about BPA as much as it is about what strategy allows for you to get the best overall value through all the rounds.  Not sure I like the pick (I'd think pretty hard about getting both of those catchers to be honest), but then again, I honestly don't know who I'd pick.  There's very little that separates BPA at 15 vs BPA at 30. 

[biggentleben]

Always good to balance out your coverage. Never let yourself get too heavy into just one coverage, ESPN or BA or BP or any coverage site. I personally review all of BA, BP, Law, Sickels, 2080, MLB Pipeline, and Scout for online sites, outside of scouts that I work with as sources for my writing. Because Keith Law or Jim Callis love one guy doesn't mean that everyone feels the same way. By blending the breadth of a combination of sources, you get a better idea of the consensus of true feelings in the game on a player because each evaluator has different connections in the game that usually pipeline to different teams in the game. By balancing the different players, you can get a good balance of the views around the game.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

It depends.  If he goes under slot and you can pick up some higher ceiling prep guys later, then by all means do it. 

Let us all not forget that Carlos Correa was taken as an underslot #1 instead of Mark Appel or Byron Buxton and the Astros took that surplus to take Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz later in the draft.

[nicksaviking]

 

Taking a 3rd round talent at 15 because he went to high school here would be the most Twins move ever

 

I'm sure he'll be gone much earlier, but I agree, I want no part in Shore. The Twins continual drafting of high floor/low ceiling guys in the middle and late in the first rounds is what crushed the farm system last decade.

 

Aaron Nola has made me eat my words a bit, but these guys with very low strikeout potential should be steered clear of until later rounds; without put-away stuff, they just need so much more to break right for them. Why would you want to use a high draft pick on a #3-4 starter? Even the Twins have shown they can afford to pay those kinds of guys in free agency, draft the guys who have the potential to profile as players you CAN'T afford in free agency.

[Lonestar]

Let's remember that there's a lot more room to go underslot at 1-1 than there is at 1-15.

 

Let us also remember that many of us were delighted that Buxton was there at 1-2.

Some of us had those two at the top of our draft boards and couldn't lose.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The problem with our pick at 15 is that BPA is ridiculously subjective at that point.  Do you take a guy like Shooter Hunt who was a high risk of failure but a ceiling of a shut down ace, do you go safer with a higher floor, higher chance of success, but lower ceiling?  I think to be honest you need to mix it up, but BPA in those scenarios are going to be entirely different.  I'm not a fan of the Shore pick to be frank, but I do think that given what I've read (where there's little distinction between picks 10 and 40), trying to get some of their preferred picks to take a deal at 1-15 and drafting some easy college signs in the 4-8 range so they can pry away a high ceiling prep prospect at 2 and 3 and a backup in the later rounds makes a ton of sense. 

[biggentleben]

 

I'm sure he'll be gone much earlier, but I agree, I want no part in Shore. The Twins continual drafting of high floor/low ceiling guys in the middle and late in the first rounds is what crushed the farm system last decade.

 

Aaron Nola has made me eat my words a bit, but these guys with very low strikeout potential should be steered clear of until later rounds; without put-away stuff, they just need so much more to break right for them. Why would you want to use a high draft pick on a #3-4 starter? Even the Twins have shown they can afford to pay those kinds of guys in free agency, draft the guys who have the potential to profile as players you CAN'T afford in free agency.

 

Nola was one of those moments when the things you heard pre-draft didn't jive with the scouts who saw him. People who saw Nola frequently said over and over that he was a guy who could be an ace, and he would also move quickly. Not that he was a backend guy that would move quickly, but for some reason, the move quickly part cannot be computed in the average report without believing the upside must not be as high as well.

[gunnarthor]

 

Let us all not forget that Carlos Correa was taken as an underslot #1 instead of Mark Appel or Byron Buxton and the Astros took that surplus to take Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz later in the draft.

Sure, but Correa was shooting up draft boards and a lock to go in the top 5 or 6 picks.  The Twins worked him out and might have taken him if Buxton went 1-1.  He was a stud.

 

I think there's a difference between playing draftees off one another to get the best deal and going under slot with a lesser talent - think Royals with Hunter Dozier in 2013.  If the Twins have the choice of Manning, Anderson and Garrett and they cut a deal with the cheapest one, that's ok.  All three of those guys should go in the #15 range.  But drafting Shore, who shouldn't, would be a mistake.  IMHO.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let us all not forget that Carlos Correa was taken as an underslot #1 instead of Mark Appel or Byron Buxton and the Astros took that surplus to take Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz later in the draft.

 

the next time the Twins are that good at manipulating the draft will be the first time, right? 

 

Also, Carlos was a top 5 talent, he wasn't a 3rd rounder......

[biggentleben]

 

the next time the Twins are that good at manipulating the draft will be the first time, right? 

 

Also, Carlos was a top 5 talent, he wasn't a 3rd rounder......

 

neither is Shore.

[Mike Sixel]

 

neither is Shore.

 

I have no idea......is he worthy of top 20? That's not my impression.

 

Plus, this is the Twins. They'll just take a guy that is about 15th on most boards, and pay him slot, and move on with their unimaginative lives, imo. 

[alarp33]

 

I have no idea......is he worthy of top 20? That's not my impression.

 

Plus, this is the Twins. They'll just take a guy that is about 15th on most boards, and pay him slot, and move on with their unimaginative lives, imo. 

 

No, definitely not top 20. When I said 3rd round I was probably using a bit of hyperbole, I'd say its more likely he goes sometime in the 2nd round. 

 

MLB.com has him the 40th ranked prospect, Keith Law did not have him in his top 50 (and said he was nowhere close).  Who knows where the Twins have him, but I think its safe to say he's not in their top 15. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Hey guys - lots of good stuff in this thread. 

 

There are so many variables with what can happen before the Twins that I'm over 20 names still for #15. There are a few guys - not huge names -  that have seem to already have stuff in the works and aren't returning their stuff to the Twins, essentially taking themselves off of the team's board. 

 

There's going to be a lot on the area scouts' plates: They'll have to know the demand going in, cause guys could fall. But they'll also need to be ready to settle for BPA that will sign. For example, if Jason Groome (random name) is on the board at #15, will he sign? Even though he's the BPA, they'll have to pass. Which could lead them to the position of drafting the best guy on their board, even though he's 18th or 20th or whatever when the draft started. 

 

It's gonna be a mess.

 

I'm going to post a mock tomorrow night.

 

[biggentleben]

 

No, definitely not top 20. When I said 3rd round I was probably using a bit of hyperbole, I'd say its more likely he goes sometime in the 2nd round. 

 

MLB.com has him the 40th ranked prospect, Keith Law did not have him in his top 50 (and said he was nowhere close).  Who knows where the Twins have him, but I think its safe to say he's not in their top 15. 

 

I'd wager that he'll be part of the college pitching run that we'll see from the 24th through 45th pick.

[gunnarthor]

This seems like a nice place for it.  ESPN had a pretty good article about scouting and heavily featured the Twins and mentioned a handful of names that might be taken on draft day.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15292494/minnesota-twins-other-mlb-teams-circling-back-scouting