Sorry...Buxton is a flop

[alarp33]

 

I won't speak for jimmer, but I'm not judging him.....I'm asking why we should set our expectations LOW for one of the top prospects in all the game. He's not a random prospect. 

 

My expectations are he is going to be a star, as soon as later this season or definitely next.  I have also watched enough baseball to know all players are not stars from their 1st 100 at bats, on.  

 

I'm not sure how that is setting expectations low. 

[jimmer]

 

I won't speak for jimmer, but I'm not judging him.....I'm asking why we should set our expectations LOW for one of the top prospects in all the game. He's not a random prospect. 

I'm not judging anyone.  His offense is speaking for itself.  And you're right, top prospects deserve to have higher expectations.

[alarp33]

 

honestly, I think phenomenal is stretching it to find a silver lining.  He's been good, and he could end up being phenomenal.  He's made 16 plays this year, that's it.

 

He's had 24 at bats this year, that's it. (But you found it ok to use that to make your argument)

 

"His offense is speaking for itself."

[gunnarthor]

 

I won't speak for jimmer, but I'm not judging him.....I'm asking why we should set our expectations LOW for one of the top prospects in all the game. He's not a random prospect. 

Other than the OP who said he was a flop, who is setting the bar low?  We think he'll be an all-star.  Comparisons to McCutchen were made.  Jeepers.  

[jimmer]

 

He's had 24 at bats this year, that's it. 

yeah, and then there was last year's offense.  And defensively, he had a negative UZR last year.  I like that he had a positive DRS, though.

[jsteve96]

you can't say he'll have an average bat/great defense along with "flop" in the same sentence. a flop is like Jurickson Profar.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The issue with calling Buxton a flop is that his bat doens't need to be near all star level for him to be a 2-3 WAR player. His defense and speed, along with a .250 average probably brings him there

Actually, while he used the word "flop" in the thread title, the original poster said he expects Buxton to be "around league average at the plate but stellar in the field".  That's about what you describe, and I think that might be a fair forecast for him right now.

 

To those that say he will be far better than that with a little work, it looks like he will need that work just to get to average.  Still possible, but probably not quite what most forecasters had in mind when they made him a perennial top prospect.  So I think it's fair to downgrade the forecast, no?

[jimmer]

Okay, serious question.  What happens if he's well below all star level 2 years from now? Where should the cutoff be to expect performance from three time top 2 prospect?

 

 

[alarp33]

 

To those that say he will be far better than that with a little work, it looks like he will need that work just to get to average.  Still possible, but probably not quite what most forecasters had in mind when they made him a perennial top prospect.  So I think it's fair to downgrade the forecast, no?

 

Mike Trout... should his forecasts have been downgraded?  (Not comparing Buxton, just giving obvious example of the previous top prospect pre-Buxton)

[alarp33]

 

Okay, serious question.  What happens if he's well below all star level 2 years from now? Where should the cutoff be to expect performance from three time top 2 prospect?

 

I don't know where the "cutoff" his, or what you "expect"... but I do know the cutoff certainly is not now, or anytime this year for that matter.  If in April 2018 he's "well below All Star level" I would say its probably fair to downgrade the extremely lofty expectations... but I'm not sure what you are asking, should he be released at that point?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mike Trout... should his forecasts have been downgraded?  (Not comparing Buxton, just giving obvious example of the previous top prospect pre-Buxton)

Trout 2011:

6.7 BB%, 22.2 K%, .171 ISO, .247 BABIP, 87 wRC+

 

Buxton, MLB career to date:

3.7 BB%, 34.8 K%, .111 ISO, .309 BABIP, 49 wRC+

 

There are degrees of struggling to adapt to MLB play, and Buxton's seems particularly severe for a top prospect.

[gunnarthor]

 

Okay, serious question.  What happens if he's well below all star level 2 years from now? Where should the cutoff be to expect performance from three time top 2 prospect?

I guess I'm not really sure what you're getting at.  If he's a slightly better Ben Revere type player in two years, I suspect most of us will be unhappy but that's still a staring CFer so I suppose he'd still be in the field.  I don't think the Twins would jetttison him at 24.

 

If you're just trolling for "when should the Twins expect him to be McCutchen" I don't have any idea.  I personally think he'll be there by the end of the season.  His history of promotions shows that it takes him a couple months to adjust to new levels.  Give him extra time since he basically skipped AAA but I think the Buxton we see in Sept will be a lot different from the one we are seeing now.

[gunnarthor]

 

Trout 2011:

6.7 BB%, 22.2 K%, .171 ISO, .247 BABIP, 87 wRC+

 

Buxton, MLB career to date:

3.7 BB%, 34.8 K%, .111 ISO, .309 BABIP, 49 wRC+

 

There are degrees of struggling to adapt to MLB play, and Buxton's seems particularly severe for a top prospect.

I like how the poster said "not comparing" and then you did exactly that to completely miss the point.

[jimbo92107]

Interesting concept, flopping at 22 years old with under 300 at-bats. 

 

Clearly Buxton has important issues to work on. He has not yet programmed himself to be a disciplined hitter, and he still appears to lack the ability to read a pitcher to time his steals. Quite possibly these fundamentals could be imparted to him more quickly in AAA, where failure does not affect the major league club. 

 

However, it's also true that Buxton has the tools to be a great ballplayer, including a sweet, powerful swing, blazing speed, a rifle arm and a good glove, getting better. He misread one fly ball a game ago that curved over his head, but otherwise he's been by far the best CF the Twins have had since Carlos Gomez.

 

Buxton needs further coaching on advanced techniques of hitting and stealing bases, but calling him a flop? That conclusion is premature by about five years. If he still can't hit .260 and read a pitcher's move to home at 27 years old, then you can call him a flop, relative to what pundits expected. Even then he's going to be a great fielder for many years, so long as he doesn't crash into too many things.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like how the poster said "not comparing" and then you did exactly that to completely miss the point.

The poster obviously compared them in relative terms -- Trout was a top prospect who scuffled in his first taste of MLB.  I think my response was perfectly appropriate -- read the last sentence again.  It's all relative.

[alarp33]

 

Trout 2011:

6.7 BB%, 22.2 K%, .171 ISO, .247 BABIP, 87 wRC+

 

Buxton, MLB career to date:

3.7 BB%, 34.8 K%, .111 ISO, .309 BABIP, 49 wRC+

 

There are degrees of struggling to adapt to MLB play, and Buxton's seems particularly severe for a top prospect.

 

Trout numbers not all that impressive, it's almost like 130 at bats don't mean much, seeing as he should've won AL MVP in 2012.

 

*Top prospect who missed virtually all of 2014, and a chunk in 2015, FWIW.  

 

I'm curious what the point of threads like this is? Are people suggesting we should run Buxton out of town for his performance to date, if not now, when?

[alarp33]

 

I like how the poster said "not comparing" and then you did exactly that to completely miss the point.

 

He kind of made my point for me. Trout was very bad in 2011, and has turned out ok I would say.  I know the numbers don't match up exactly. 

[Loosey]

 

I won't speak for jimmer, but I'm not judging him.....I'm asking why we should set our expectations LOW for one of the top prospects in all the game. He's not a random prospect. 

I wouldn't say we set our expectations low.  I would say the Twins brought him up twice when he clearly was not ready for MLB pitching.  So even though he is a top 2 prospect, doesn't mean he is MLB ready.  He was the #1 prospect 2-3 years ago when he was in A ball.  If the Twins brought him up then it would have been absurd and everyone would have expected failure.  I think he needs more time to develop in the minors and will in time start to show signs of being a star. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Put another way, the degree of Trout's breakout was unexpected, even given his top prospect status and holding his own around his 20th birthday before playing a single game in AAA (or even the AFL).

 

I think it's fair to say that a McCutcheon level breakout in the near future for Buxton would be equally unexpected, given that he's a bit more advanced in age and experience and he's not particularly close to even holding his own in MLB yet.  Not impossible, of course, but it would have to be a pretty optimistic forecast.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

I think it's fair to say that a McCutcheon level breakout in the near future for Buxton would be equally unexpected, given that he's a bit more advanced in age and experience and he's not particularly close to even holding his own in MLB yet.  Not impossible, of course, but it would have to be a pretty optimistic forecast.

 

I'm not sure what this means. Buxton at 21 was in the majors (struggling). McCutcheon's Age 21 season was spent entirely at AAA (512 At bats), which he repeated for another 49 games and 200 at bats at 22. What does a bit more advanced in age and experience mean?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Trout numbers not all that impressive, it's almost like 130 at bats don't mean much, seeing as he should've won AL MVP in 2012.

Look at the numbers again.  Trout had good power, reasonable K and BB rates, bad BABIP luck, overall near league average bat in 2011.  Buxton is nowhere close to that.

 

In fact, here is Trout's 2011 season broken down a little further:

 

July, 47 PA:

6.4 BB%, 21.3 K%, .116 ISO, .182 BABIP, 34 wRC+

 

Sent back down to AA for a few more weeks and had his 20th birthday in August.

 

August/September, 88 PA:

6.8 BB%, 22.7 K%, .200 ISO, .286 BABIP, 115 wRC+

 

Trout did kind of a classic progression: initially struggle but some decent rate stats and bad BABIP luck , sent back down briefly, came back much better right away.  A pretty quick adaptation to league-average or better bat.

 

I think we can all agree that Buxton hasn't done any of that yet, right?  I didn't think that was a controversial point.

[jimmer]

Not once have I said he's a flop. And I'm not sure how it could be considered trolling by simply asking how long one should expect a top 2 prospect over the last 3 years to either come close to his potential or be considered a flop?  

 

Also, what kind of player/level of play is acceptable for guy like him to not be considered a flop?

 

 

 

[alarp33]

We're at the point of breaking out extremely small sample sizes (150 plate appearances) into even tinier sample sizes.  I think I will bow out now.  I look forward to laughing at this thread in a few years. 

[jimmer]

McCutchen was never a top 10 prospect, much less a #1 or #2 prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure what this means. Buxton at 21 was in the majors (struggling). McCutcheon's Age 21 season was spent entirely at AAA (512 At bats), which he repeated for another 49 games and 200 at bats at 22. What does a bit more advanced in age and experience mean?

Sorry, age and experience compared to Trout is what I meant.  I just invoked McCutchen as a "Trout lite" upside as was referenced by other posters.

 

Although McCutchen came up and held his own right away at age 22, same as Buxton is right now.  And with the degree of Buxton's MLB struggles thus far, I don't know if it is prudent to write them all off as a temporary result of past injuries.

[alarp33]

 

Although McCutchen came up and held his own right away at age 22, same as Buxton is right now.  And with the degree of Buxton's MLB struggles thus far, I don't know if it is prudent to write them all off as a temporary result of past injuries.

 

McCutcheon had nearly twice the amount of minor league at bats as Buxton.  I would say its fair to expect he be more ready to hit immediately.  In fact, there's other threads where people think Buxton should be sent down because the AAA at bats are needed (I don't agree, he'll work it out fine up here).  

 

So - he can't be compared to McCutcheon because of Age 22 numbers (a whopping 24 at bats for one of them!), but MILB plate appearances / at bats are meaningless... do I have that right?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We're at the point of breaking out extremely small sample sizes (150 plate appearances) into even tinier sample sizes.  I think I will bow out now.  I look forward to laughing at this thread in a few years. 

My point isn't buried in the stats.  It doesn't take any stats at all to see that Buxton is pretty over-matched in MLB right now.  The numbers just help quantify it.

 

Find me a prospect that had a career start like Buxton's, but quickly reversed course to achieve McCutchen performance levels.  It's not easy to find.  I hope the numbers have shown you Trout doesn't fit that mold (he wasn't great in his first MLB season, but he was nowhere near present Buxton level at the plate).

[DocBauer]

Not even going to dignify this thread with a response.

 

 

 

Oh crap!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

McCutcheon had nearly twice the amount of minor league at bats as Buxton.  I would say its fair to expect he be more ready to hit immediately.  In fact, there's other threads where people think Buxton should be sent down because the AAA at bats are needed (I don't agree, he'll work it out fine up here).  

 

So - he can't be compared to McCutcheon because of Age 22 numbers (a whopping 24 at bats for one of them!), but MILB plate appearances / at bats are meaningless... do I have that right?

I am getting lost here.  I am not saying those things.

 

What I am saying is that, Buxton's struggles right now are pretty big for a top prospect.  This doesn't look like the usual adjustment period for top prospects, of which Trout is a good example.  He's still young and could benefit from some more experience, but it's not like he's THAT raw -- 22 years old, 4 pro seasons, 1200+ pro PA.

 

Barring a sudden turnaround, I think it's fair to downgrade his future projection to something closer to solid or even average MLB regular, rather than future star like McCutchen.  Not that it's impossible for him to achieve that level, of course, but I'm having a hard time projecting it for him, especially in any near-future term.  The idea that he will be McCutchen level by September, as posited by gunnarthor on this thread, seems especially optimistic.

 

(And to be fair, the original poster's invocation of the word "flop" was equally pessimistic, although the content of his post clarified he was using a much stricter threshold for invoking that term.)

[alarp33]

 

I am getting lost here.  I am not saying those things.

 

What I am saying is that, Buxton's struggles right now are pretty big for a top prospect.  This doesn't look like the usual adjustment period for top prospects, of which Trout is a good example.  He's still young and could benefit from some more experience, but it's not like he's THAT raw -- 22 years old, 4 pro seasons, 1200+ pro PA.

 

Barring a sudden turnaround, I think it's fair to downgrade his future projection to something closer to solid or even average MLB regular, rather than future star like McCutchen.  Not that it's impossible for him to achieve that level, of course, but I'm having a hard time projecting it for him, especially in any near-future term.  The idea that he will be McCutchen level by September, as posited by gunnarthor on this thread, seems especially optimistic.

 

 

 

Through 1200 plate PA McCutcheon was just reaching AAA (2007) , where he would spend the entire next season (2008), and 1st half of the following (2009)