Reusee: What's not to like

[gunnarthor]

http://www.startribune.com/it-s-ok-to-like-these-twins/374072231/

 

Reusse is pretty happy with the this Twins team.  Best team since 2010, which I think we all agree on.  If we stay healthy, we can make the post season.

[FunnyPenguin]

Yes it is fun to think of the what "ifs".  Like if Park hits 30 HRs and Sano 35 and Dozier 28 and Plouffe 24.  Buxton bats .310, Santana .290, Rosario .280 with 15 triples and Ervin Santanta returns to form, Gibson breaks out, Hughes goes back to 2014 form and Berrios dominates with Duffey being solid, heck we'd even beat the Cubs!!

[zenser]

I guess the one big IF would be if Sano grows up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

compare the rotation that started 2010 with what is set to start this season:

Then — Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano (coming off 5-13). Now — Erv Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco.

Pavano pitched great, and Liriano had a comeback season, but I’ll take this bunch all day long.

Interesting.  I don't think the difference is quite THAT stark.  That 2010 bunch wound up 4th in MLB in SP fWAR, I think we'd be thrilled if last year's group (13th) improved like that.

[strumdatjaguar]

Reusse seems to think that injuries could doom the TWins.  But the Twins are deep at every position and many injuries could open up a spot for a more talented replacement. What happens if the Twins lose a player to injury:

Starting pitcher:: Replaced by Berrios or Duffy (probable upgrade)

Relief Pitcher:  Replaced by Burdi, Chargois or one of the other numerous power arms in the minors (possible upgrade)

Mauer:  Park moves to first,  Sano backs up 1B and is at DH more, Kepler comes up to play regularly in the outfield  (possible upgrade)'

Dozier:  Polanco is a downgrade, but likely to make a good contribution.

Escobar:  Santana takes over at SS, and who knows what happens?

Plouffe:  Sano takes over at 3B and Kepler to RF.(possible upgrade)

Rosario or Buxton: Replaced by Kepler (likely downgrade, but still will make a decent contribution)

Suzuki or Murphy:  John Hicks had a decent Spring but it's still a probable downgrade.

 

In other words, Reusse is wrong.   Even 3 or 4 injuries would not be a disaster, and may lead to a net improvement, if spread throughout the roster.  I agree, losing 3 or 4 starting pitchers, or both catchers, would be problematic.

 

[dxpavelka]

 

Reusse seems to think that injuries could doom the TWins.  But the Twins are deep at every position and many injuries could open up a spot for a more talented replacement. What happens if the Twins lose a player to injury:

Starting pitcher:: Replaced by Berrios or Duffy (probable upgrade)

Relief Pitcher:  Replaced by Burdi, Chargois or one of the other numerous power arms in the minors (possible upgrade)

Mauer:  Park moves to first,  Sano backs up 1B and is at DH more, Kepler comes up to play regularly in the outfield  (possible upgrade)'

Dozier:  Polanco is a downgrade, but likely to make a good contribution.

Escobar:  Santana takes over at SS, and who knows what happens?

Plouffe:  Sano takes over at 3B and Kepler to RF.(possible upgrade)

Rosario or Buxton: Replaced by Kepler (likely downgrade, but still will make a decent contribution)

Suzuki or Murphy:  John Hicks had a decent Spring but it's still a probable downgrade.

 

In other words, Reusse is wrong.   Even 3 or 4 injuries would not be a disaster, and may lead to a net improvement, if spread throughout the roster.  I agree, losing 3 or 4 starting pitchers, or both catchers, would be problematic.

MIGHT be a stretch to say Ruesse is wrong here.  Even in your scenario(s) most of the potential upgrades fall into the "possible" bucket.  In other words.  Ruesse MIGHT be wrong.  He MIGHT be right to.  Injuries seldom have a net positive effect.  Are you willing to bet that the Twins will be the team that has enough LUCK to buck that trend?  Injuries can doom any team and usually do doom most if they strike.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Reusse seems to think that injuries could doom the Twins.

 

...

 

In other words, Reusse is wrong.

Huh?  Not sure where you are getting that, he doesn't seem to say that in this article at all.

[strumdatjaguar]

Reusse indeed does say that:  "The Twins could finish from second to fifth (nobody's beating Kansas City) in the salty Central, depending on whether they are one of the teams that is struck with injuries or one that avoids them." 

 

Aside from a disaster like losing three starters, I don't think the Twins can be doomed by injuries this year.  Indeed, the team is deep with talent, which is ready or nearly ready, and certain injuries could actually help the team improve.  Does anyone really think that replacing an injured Rickie Nolasco with Jose Berrios would be likely to doom this team, for example?  And I think Nolasco deserved to be named a starter.   I pick Kansas City to win the division, but each of the teams in this division appears capable of putting a division winning season together - So Reusse is wrong in saying NOBODY can beat them!!!.

[jimbo92107]

 

Yes it is fun to think of the what "ifs".  Like if Park hits 30 HRs and Sano 35 and Dozier 28 and Plouffe 24.  Buxton bats .310, Santana .290, Rosario .280 with 15 triples and Ervin Santanta returns to form, Gibson breaks out, Hughes goes back to 2014 form and Berrios dominates with Duffey being solid, heck we'd even beat the Cubs!!

If all that happens, they could beat the Vikings!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Reusse indeed does say that:  "The Twins could finish from second to fifth (nobody's beating Kansas City) in the salty Central, depending on whether they are one of the teams that is struck with injuries or one that avoids them." 

 

Aside from a disaster like losing three starters, I don't think the Twins can be doomed by injuries this year.

The division is wide open.  I don't think he is saying injuries could doom us, so much that it will be a close race and health could provide the thin margin between those teams (and not just injuries for us, but if other teams avoid injuries -- i.e. White Sox rotation, Indians rotation, Tigers big bats, etc.).

 

Also, notably absent from your injury list is Sano.  Yeah, we'd have bodies to take his spot, but probably no one to come close to his 146 OPS+ from last year (and hopefully an even better mark this year).  That alone could have a "losing Mauer or Morneau in 2011" type impact.

 

As gunnarthor noted, Reusse is pretty optimistic in this piece, I think it's wrong to characterize it with any suggestion of "doom."

[strumdatjaguar]

Yes, if Sano gets injured, he's replaced by Kepler.  That's almost certainly a downgrade offensively, and not enough of an upgrade defensively to significantly offset that.   OK, I guess I have to make a reference to Ozzie Arcia - There I did it.   It's too early to call him a nonfactor.   No, it's probably not too early!

I agree Reusse is optimistic.  I just disagree with his worry about injuries. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Reusse seems to think that injuries could doom the TWins.  But the Twins are deep at every position and many injuries could open up a spot for a more talented replacement. 

That may be a little too sweet, but it's a beautiful thought. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree Reusse is optimistic.  I just disagree with his worry about injuries. 

Again, it's not a worry about injuries.  It's about a tough division.  Any "worry about injuries" could easily mean Cabrera, Sale, Kluber, etc. NOT getting injured, as much as any Twins like Sano getting hurt.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Injuries will doom most teams.  We have some nice depth this year and can potentially survive some of them.  Not sure I'd argue for improve (though there's a couple scenarios where it's possible)