Article: Player Projections: The Catchers

[Thrylos]

 

Given Centeno's spring numbers, why not go with the hot hand and keep Centeno on the roster as a bench bat/3rd catcher? Or maybe Murphy's the one that needs a little work in AAA. You can always swap them later, if Centeno's bat goes cold. Meanwhile, you've got a hot bat with good D in Centeno. What's not to like?

 

Murphy is out of options.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Murphy played half his games in Yankee Stadium, had a season BABIP in the high .350s, and ended up with an OPS in the .730s. I'm not sure he can sustain a .700 OPS at the MLB level away from a hitter's park and without a very high BABIP. His minor league OPS was only in the 730s.

He doesn't hit home runs so I'm not sure what Yankee Stadium has to do with anything.

 

But the BABIP is a concern.

[jimmer]

 

He doesn't hit home runs so I'm not sure what Yankee Stadium has to do with anything.

But the BABIP is a concern.

At home he batted .302/.354/.407  BABIP over .410

Away he batted .246/.293/.406 BABIP under .290.

Edited March 22, 2016 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

At home he batted .302/.354/.407 BABIP over .410

Away he batted .246/.293/.406 BABIP under .290.

Data noise, nothing more. Yankee Stadium isn't some BABIP haven.

[jimmer]

 

Data noise, nothing more. Yankee Stadium isn't some BABIP haven.

Ok

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ok

Well, it's not... Unless you're arguing that JR Murphy has figured out a way to exploit a weakness and do things much more talented players can't seem to work out on their own.

[mikelink45]

Spring predictions are seldom worth the effort.  Interesting to speculate, but who knows what either will do?  Murphy does not have enough time to establish a good track record and Suzuki does, but either can suffer one of the numerous injuries that plague catchers.

 

Look at HOF Roy Campanella:

.258 .345 .416
1949 28 Dodgers 130 436 65 125 22 2 22 0 82 67 17 36 1 0 3 11 .287 .385 .498
1950 29 Dodgers 126 437 70 123 19 3 31 2 89 55 15 51 0 0 2 17 .281 .364 .551
1951 30 Dodgers 143 505 90 164 33 1 33 2 108 53 14 51 0 0 4 19 .325 .393 .590
1952 31 Dodgers 128 468 73 126 18 1 22 2 97 57 12 59 5 0 3 22 .269 .352 .453
1953 32 Dodgers 144 519 103 162 26 3 41 0 142 67 13 58 0 0 4 13 .312 .395 .611
1954 33 Dodgers 111 397 43 82 14 3 19 0 51 42 6 49 4 1 2 13 .207 .285 .401
1955 34 Dodgers 123 446 81 142 20 1 32 0 107 56 9 41 5 9 6 14 .318 .395 .583
1956 35 Dodgers 124 388 39 85 6 1 20 0 73 66 15 61 4 2 1 20 .219 .333 .394
1957 36 Dodgers 103 330 31 80 9 0 13 0 62 34 6 50 6 6 4 11 .242 .316 .388
Career G AB R H 2B 3B HR GRSL RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
10 Years 1,215 4,205 627 1,161 178 18 242 6 856 533 113 501 30 18 30 143 .276 .360 .50

Injury stopped career, but look at the BAs.  What stands out is the OBP from year to year, but the other stats swing wildly with the wear and tear of the catcher position.  

 

I'm glad we have two that seem to be Major leaguers and some in the wings.

[DaveW]

Data noise, nothing more. Yankee Stadium isn't some BABIP haven.

It is a hitters park (beyond just home runs)

[jimmer]

 

Well, it's not... Unless you're arguing that JR Murphy has figured out a way to exploit a weakness and do things much more talented players can't seem to work out on their own.

My ok meant, ok.  I've given the info I thought was relevant and that's that.  People will have to get out of it what they want.

 

Disclaimer:  Yankee home BABIP is 28th out of 30 and their opponents 25th. Noise it is.

Edited March 22, 2016 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

Murphy is out of options.

Murphy spent all of 2015 in MLB so he didn't use an option last year. Actually, I think Murphy has two option years remaining. The only one used on him was in 2014. He was added to the 40-man when he was called up late in 2013.

 

Not that I advocate optioning him, of course.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is a hitters park (beyond just home runs)

Sure, a hitter might see a small bump in BABIP from Yankee Stadium (and many hitters might see a small BABIP bump from the friendly confines of a home park) but not to the tune of 120 points. Maybe 5, 10, even 20 points. Not 120. That's just noise. No hitter can do that on a regular basis.

 

Even David Ortiz, a guy who exploits the oddities of the Monster as well as anyone, has a BABIP only 60 points higher at home than the road.

 

And Yankee Stadium doesn't have a feature as obvious or as easy to exploit as the Monster. Nothing close to it. No other team has a home stadium with anything as weird as the Monster.

[DaveW]

Park factors etc aside, the thing that stands out to me the most with JR is his 25% strikeout rate thus far in the majors and complete inability to hit the curve. I saw him play quite a bit with NYY last year, color me completely unimpressed. He looks like he will be a decent back up C, but nothing more at this stage. This would be fine if the Twins still had a guy like Mauer behind the dish or a good (or hell even average starting catcher behind the dish) but this hardly solves any issues as Suzuki is still going to play in 50%+ of the games. I just wish they actually went out and solved the starting catcher issue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Park factors etc aside, the thing that stands out to me the most with JR is his 25% strikeout rate thus far in the majors and complete inability to hit the curve. I saw him play quite a bit with NYY last year, color me completely unimpressed. He looks like he will be a decent back up C, but nothing more at this stage. This would be fine if the Twins still had a guy like Mauer behind the dish or a good (or hell even average starting catcher behind the dish) but this hardly solves any issues as Suzuki is still going to play in 50%+ of the games. I just wish they actually went out and solved the starting catcher issue.

I definitely have concerns about Murphy and really, I'll be thrilled if he's league average. Bonus points for anything better than that.

 

The Twins gave up Aaron Hicks, an enigmatic but talented player to get this guy. If Murphy busts and Hicks flourishes in New York, that's a pretty damning indictment of the Twins' scouting and analytics system. If he succeeds, that's a pretty solid endorsement.

[laloesch]

 

I definitely have concerns about Murphy and really, I'll be thrilled if he's league average. Bonus points for anything better than that.

 

The Twins gave up Aaron Hicks, an enigmatic but talented player to get this guy. If Murphy busts and Hicks flourishes in New York, that's a pretty damning indictment of the Twins' scouting and analytics system. If he succeeds, that's a pretty solid endorsement.

 

Agreed.  I hold some hope that Murphy will be a decent catcher for Minnesota but we shall see.

[DaveW]

 

If Murphy busts and Hicks flourishes in New York, that's a pretty damning indictment of the Twins' scouting and analytics system. If he succeeds, that's a pretty solid endorsement.

Murphy becoming league average isn't a solid endorsement when their are already a ton of other indictments of the Twins scouting and analytics when it comes to trades (and DFA and FA)

 

Garza and Bartlett for Delmon Young
Letting Liriano go

Letting David Ortiz go

Nolasco signing

Colabello

 

etc

Murphy has a long ways to be league average IMO, he can't keep up his .350+ BABIP, so he needs to get that K rate down or he is going to be screwed.

Hicks at least had his defense to fall back on (though he was flawed offensively), Murphy? Not sure about that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Murphy becoming league average isn't a solid endorsement when their are already a ton of other indictments of the Twins scouting and analytics when it comes to trades (and DFA and FA)

 

Garza and Bartlett for Delmon Young

Letting Liriano go

Letting David Ortiz go

Nolasco signing

Colabello

Most of those trades are ancient history and others didn't happen under the current GM's watch. Nolasco was a bust and Liriano was turned into Escobar before he walked into free agency. Those other deals were mostly bad but I'm more interested in what has happened the past 2-3 seasons, not what happened 8+ seasons ago. Ortiz and Young conversations are non-starters because they literally have nothing to do with the 2016 Twins.

 

Murphy has a long ways to be league average IMO, he can't keep up his .350+ BABIP, so he needs to get that K rate down or he is going to be screwed.

Hicks at least had his defense to fall back on (though he was flawed offensively), Murphy? Not sure about that.

By all accounts Murphy is supposed to be decent behind the dish. The most likely outcome for both Hicks and Murphy might be bench role players. At that point, can we really criticize the trade? It's a fair talent swap: backup catcher for backup outfielder. If Hicks can't figure out righties, his value is marginal, and that's being generous. A guy who hits 70% of MLB pitchers at a sub-.600 clip is a bad baseball player, it doesn't matter how good he looks in the outfield.

[DaveW]

 

Most of those trades are ancient history and others didn't happen under the current GM's watch. Nolasco was a bust and Liriano was turned into Escobar before he walked into free agency. Those other deals were mostly bad but I'm more interested in what has happened the past 2-3 seasons, not what happened 8+ seasons ago. Ortiz and Young conversations are non-starters because they literally have nothing to do with the 2016 Twins.

You are right, not all of those happened under the current GM (who has failed to win a playoff game in 10+ years and has won exactly one playoff series in 18 seasons)

As far as being interested in what has happened the past 2-3 seasons:

-Suzuki extension (terrible)

-Pelfrey signing and re-signing (terrible)

-Nolasco signing (terrible doesn't even describe it)

-Hughes re-signing (terrible)

-Santana signing (TBD)

-Jepsen trade (good)

-Park signing (TBD)

-Roster crunch that forces your best player(Sano) in a position he can't handle (terrible)

-Forcing young talented pitchers (May...Duffey perhaps) out of the rotation in order to give starts to mediocre or terrible pitchers (Nolasco, Pelfrey etc)

-Colabello walking (Not terrible, but definitely a whiff)

-Stauffer signing (terrible results, but meh)

-Not fixing the pen earlier last season and relying on Boyer types in crunch spots (terrible, may have cost the Twins a wild card berth in a "down" year and a "lucky" year)

Playoff appearances the last 2-3 years: (0), overall record during this time? 48 games under .500

Yeah, I'd say that's a pretty significant indictment.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not going to participate in another Terry Ryan thread. Keep the subject on catchers, shall we? You didn't even bother to quote the second half of my post. We've been on the Terry Ryan merry go-round plenty of times already.

[DaveW]

I'm not going to participate in another Terry Ryan thread. Keep the subject on catchers, shall we? You didn't even bother to quote the second half of my post. We've been on the Terry Ryan merry go-round plenty of times already.

fine. I will talk about this trade, you seemingly want to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt on it. While I give the GM who has beaten the Twins 9 straight playoff games (and has won World Series) the benefit of the doubt on it.

 

Ntm most everyone around baseball said the Yankees won that trade.

 

If the wild made a trade with the Blackhawks would everyone just give Fletcher the benefit of the doubt?

 

Nope.

 

Also, the Yankees seem to be pretty damn spot on when it comes to evaluating catchers.

Edited March 22, 2016 by DaveW

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

fine. I will talk about this trade, you seemingly want to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt on it. While I give the GM who has beaten the Twins 9 straight playoff games (and has won World Series) the benefit of the doubt on it.

Ntm most everyone around baseball said the Yankees won that trade.

If the wild made a trade with the Blackhawks would everyone just give Fletcher the benefit of the doubt?

Nope.

Also, the Yankees seem to be pretty damn spot on when it comes to evaluating catchers.

1. I'm not giving anyone the benefit of the doubt, I'm merely saying "the proof is in the pudding". Results will dictate the success/failure of the trade.

 

2. You're still trying to make the conversation about Terry Ryan, not JR Murphy.

[DaveW]

 

1. I'm not giving anyone the benefit of the doubt, I'm merely saying "the proof is in the pudding". Results will dictate the success/failure of the trade.

 

2. You're still trying to make the conversation about Terry Ryan, not JR Murphy.

JR Murphy had a .350 BABIP+ in his time in the majors and his numbers still weren't that good. One glance at that and his 25% k rate shows that it's going to take a significant improvement across the board to become anything more than a backup (his D needs work as well)

 

More to the fact, by having JR Murphy on the roster, we are now forced to rush a guy in CF who clearly isn't ready at the plate and will struggle to hit .200 the first couple months more likely than not. Sort of reminds me on how the Twins rushed the guy who they traded for Murphy to begin with, it's sort of like deja vu all over again, no?

 

 

(note: I think Buxton ends up being a stud, I just don't see how giving him the starting role out of ST where he will struggle more than likely is a good decision)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

JR Murphy had a .350 BABIP+ in his time in the majors and his numbers still weren't that good. One glance at that and his 25% k rate shows that it's going to take a significant improvement across the board to become anything more than a backup (his D needs work as well)

 

More to the fact, by having JR Murphy on the roster, we are now forced to rush a guy in CF who clearly isn't ready at the plate and will struggle to hit .200 the first couple months more likely than not. Sort of reminds me on how the Twins rushed the guy who they traded for Murphy to begin with, it's sort of like deja vu all over again, no?

 

 

(note: I think Buxton ends up being a stud, I just don't see how giving him the starting role out of ST where he will struggle more than likely is a good decision)

I'm wishy-washy on Buxton. It's likely I'd send him to Rochester but I haven't seen enough plate appearances this spring to know for sure.

 

And the Twins don't *have* to start Buxton. They can slide Rosario to center and field a subpar defensive alignment for a month or two while he gets it together.

 

As for Murphy, I'm far from sold on the guy. I didn't particularly like the trade when it happened... But he filled a need. Now it's on the front office's shoulders to prove they picked the right guy.

[DaveW]

 

I'm wishy-washy on Buxton. It's likely I'd send him to Rochester but I haven't seen enough plate appearances this spring to know for sure.

 

And the Twins don't *have* to start Buxton. They can slide Rosario to center and field a subpar defensive alignment for a month or two while he gets it together.

 

As for Murphy, I'm far from sold on the guy. I didn't particularly like the trade when it happened... But he filled a need. Now it's on the front office's shoulders to prove they picked the right guy.

It's apparent that Suzuki is still the starting catcher, you don't need to trade a young guy with upside to fill a "back up catcher" need. If Suzuki wasn't around, I understand it a bit more, but in this case, it just seemed like a trade to make a trade.

 

An OF defense of Sano-Rosario-Arcia is a little less than "sub par" it would be an unmitigated disaster.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's apparent that Suzuki is still the starting catcher, you don't need to trade a young guy with upside to fill a "back up catcher" need. If Suzuki wasn't around, I understand it a bit more, but in this case, it just seemed like a trade to make a trade.

 

An OF defense of Sano-Rosario-Arcia is a little less than "sub par" it would be an unmitigated disaster.

Oh, that defensive alignment would be terrible, of that I have little doubt... But it might work in the short-term. It's not what I'd like to see but it might be in Buxton's best interest, which should be at the front of the team's mind.

 

And it also fixes the Arcia/Quentin problem in the short-term. The way Carlos is raking this spring, it's hard to leave him off the roster. I know, Spring Training SSS and all that but damn, the dude is flat-out raking.

 

And yeah, Suzuki is "starting" right now but I doubt the Twins traded for Murphy with the expectation Kurt would be squatting behind the dish four times a week in August.

[DaveW]

 

And it also fixes the Arcia/Quentin problem in the short-term. The way Carlos is raking this spring, it's hard to leave him off the roster. I know, Spring Training SSS and all that but damn, the dude is flat-out raking.

 

 

Dude it's 29 at bats...you don't need to bring Quentin north at all. Suzuki also has a .971 OPS in ST this year....again SSS and spring training numbers are pointless overall, everyone is "mashing" because 50% of the at bats are against AAAA or worse type pitchers.

Don't believe me?

Mastrionni is above .820 OPS

Sweeny is above .800

Edited March 22, 2016 by DaveW

[DaveW]

And no, Sano-Rosario-Arcia would absolutely NOT work in the short term.

[Willihammer]

 

Murphy spent all of 2015 in MLB so he didn't use an option last year. Actually, I think Murphy has two option years remaining. The only one used on him was in 2014. He was added to the 40-man when he was called up late in 2013.

Not that I advocate optioning him, of course.

I would be really curious to know how big of a factor the options were. Perhaps the Twins felt they could ill-afford for Hicks to go into another sub-.600 slump, and chose to move him for a guy they could afford to be patient with (due to options), and would not risk losing Hicks for nothing. If true, that would tell us a lot about their 2016 eval / expectations for the guy.

 

Or maybe, they liked Murphy regardless of the roster flexibility he provides.

Edited March 23, 2016 by Willihammer

[Shane Wahl]

They are both going to put up roughly the same numbers:

 

.264/.322/.346 (.668) for Suzuki

.272/.315/.361 (.676) for Murphy

[tobi0040]

It's apparent that Suzuki is still the starting catcher, you don't need to trade a young guy with upside to fill a "back up catcher" need. If Suzuki wasn't around, I understand it a bit more, but in this case, it just seemed like a trade to make a trade.

 

An OF defense of Sano-Rosario-Arcia is a little less than "sub par" it would be an unmitigated disaster.

I think the issue is we don't have a future starting MLB quality catcher in our system. Period.

 

I think the Twins lack of investment here (picks, FA signings, international prospects) signals they were not really thinking they needed one for several years. I think they thought Mauer was going to catch longer even though it was the other way around. Or they thought s guy like Pinto was their guy even though they never seemed sold on him.

[Rosterman]

It will be interesting to watch the development of Hicks in anotehr uniform.

 

Remember, Murphy is still young. Younger than the other potential backups in the system. If he is being groomed to take over the catching spot, it was a big spring training for him...learning The Twins Way and working with a whole new group of pitchers. Happily he will be able to grab a starter or two to be the regular backstop for, and move up the at-bat pecking order from there.