Souhan: Park Won't Be Nishioka Part 2

[Seth Stohs]

Jim Souhan wrote a nice article highlighting many of the reasons that Byung Ho Park will not be the second coming of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. 

 

 

Park played in Korea. Nishioka played in Japan. Wikipedia indicates that they are not the same country. The Star Tribune is working to confirm.

 

 

 

 

Park is a power hitter. Nishioka was a slap hitter.

Those aren’t even the most important differences between the two.

 

It's a well-done article. 

[Boom Boom]

I don't want to compare the two players. However the situations are similar - two guys coming off warty video game seasons in inferior foreign leagues. The Twins scouts really blew it on Nishioka - can we trust them to be right about Park?

[nytwinsfan]

 

I don't want to compare the two players. However the situations are similar - two guys coming off warty video game seasons in inferior foreign leagues. The Twins scouts really blew it on Nishioka - can we trust them to be right about Park?

Even that isn't true. Park has had 3 to 4 video game seasons in a row (depending if you consider a .954 OPS "video game"), not 1 like Nishioka. That's a huge difference. Plus the scouting (not just Twins, but outside scouting) backs up Park a lot more than it did Nishi.

[nicksaviking]

Nishioka was a diva who insisted on wearing clothes provided by his apparel brand before being forced to change into Twins garb, who alienated many people in his own clubhouse and who wanted to be treated like a star even when he was performing like a minor leaguer.

 

Am I the only one who didn't know this?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Nishioka was a diva who insisted on wearing clothes provided by his apparel brand before being forced to change into Twins garb, who alienated many people in his own clubhouse and who wanted to be treated like a star even when he was performing like a minor leaguer.

 

Am I the only one who didn't know this?

 

 

Almost croaked when I read that one. 

[Blake]

 

 

Almost croaked when I read that one. 

Sports writers tend to sit on things. Some of the stuff that came out about Manny Ramirez after he PEDed himself out of the game was rather startling.

[Oldgoat_MN]

If Souhan gets it maybe some of the fans here will finally get it.

 

Park may succeed or not, but it's going to have nothing to do with Nishi.

 

(clubhouse diva? Who knew?)

 

[REPETE]

 

Nishioka was a diva who insisted on wearing clothes provided by his apparel brand before being forced to change into Twins garb, who alienated many people in his own clubhouse and who wanted to be treated like a star even when he was performing like a minor leaguer.

 

Am I the only one who didn't know this?

NO!  But now the question is, how does a guy with one good Japanese season get his own clothing line?  Did he make them himself in his basement?  How come Joe Mauer didn't help him out by sporting the Nishi-line?  Is this the same sporty apparel that Twins players wear during the first go-around of At Bat pictures now?  

[DaveW]

 

If Souhan gets it maybe some of the fans here will finally get it.

 

99.99% of the "fans here" understand they are two completely different cases. Bang up work by Souhan though on this lowest of low hanging fruit.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

99.99% of the "fans here" understand they are two completely different cases. Bang up work by Souhan though on this lowest of low hanging fruit.

 

I appreciate your confidence in your fellow fans (us), but you know very well that 99.99% is about 5% too high.

 

And I agree. A good writeup by Souhan.

[alarp33]

 

NO!  But now the question is, how does a guy with one good Japanese season get his own clothing line?  Did he make them himself in his basement?  How come Joe Mauer didn't help him out by sporting the Nishi-line?  Is this the same sporty apparel that Twins players wear during the first go-around of At Bat pictures now?  

 

He was married at the time to a famous Japanese model, I remember reading stories about that at the time, I assume that had a lot to do with it

[DaveW]

 

I appreciate your confidence in your fellow fans (us), but you know very well that 99.99% is about 5% too high.

 

And I agree. A good writeup by Souhan.

99% is probably too high, but I have only seen 2 people on this board who have said "Park won't succeed because Nishi didn't suceed" So, probably closer to 99%

[DaveW]

 

 

He was married at the time to a famous Japanese model, I remember reading stories about that at the time, I assume that had a lot to do with it

It's all right here:
 

[ThejacKmp]

So I went to look at Nishioka's baseball reference page and it's really kind of baffling. I know hindsight says the Twins made a terrible call based on one season of unsustainable performance but it's way more complicated than that.

 

Nishioka did have a bang up year right before he came but he also had two good years before that. He was turning 26, entering his prime. If you consider that the JPL is often considered just better than AAA (but let's call it AAA to be safe) it makes a pretty defensible call. If the Twins had a middle infield prospect in AAA (or to be honest, even AA) who put up OPS's of .820, .787 and .904 from age 23-25 there would be howls to get him up to the majors - this is a guy who is "putting it together" and "entering his prime".

 

And then . . Nishioka fell off a cliff. We know how bad he was in MLB but even back in JPL at age 28-30 he's been pretty awful. Can't stop getting hurt, OPS the last three years of .728, .724, .690. Obviously we all wish that Nishioka had been signed by the White Sox instead but it's really a somewhat defensible signing. It's hard to beat the Twins up for it in a vacuum (that last part is big: I'm just referring to signing him, not to the part where we get rid of Hardy for two minor league relievers because he couldn't steal bases - in economic terms we're ignoring the opportunity cost and just looking at the move itself).

 

Nishioka has been a huge disappointment as a baseball player, not just as a Major Leaguer. His is that classic tale of a very exciting prospect who never kindled on the big stage.

[nicksaviking]

As bad as his bat was, the biggest issue was for some reason their scouts weren't able to tell that he didn't have either the arm or the range to play SS at the MLB level.

 

They traded their SS in Hardy and were planning on replacing him with Nishioka who opened the season as a 2B because it was clear during spring training that he couldn't play SS.

 

There should be some forgiveness not knowing if the bat would play at the next level, but the glove and the arm? They should have been much easier to spot. No excuses for that.

[Boom Boom]

Even that isn't true. Park has had 3 to 4 video game seasons in a row (depending if you consider a .954 OPS "video game"), not 1 like Nishioka. That's a huge difference. Plus the scouting (not just Twins, but outside scouting) backs up Park a lot more than it did Nishi.

Nishioka was coming off back-to-back batting titles in Japan. He was more than a one-year wonder there.

 

Also... I don't know what evidence there is that scouts like Park better than Nishioka. The contracts aren't that dissimilar, which would lead me to believe that scouts in the know view Park as at least a moderate bust risk.

[Jham]

 

So I went to look at Nishioka's baseball reference page and it's really kind of baffling. I know hindsight says the Twins made a terrible call based on one season of unsustainable performance but it's way more complicated than that.

 

Nishioka did have a bang up year right before he came but he also had two good years before that. He was turning 26, entering his prime. If you consider that the JPL is often considered just better than AAA (but let's call it AAA to be safe) it makes a pretty defensible call. If the Twins had a middle infield prospect in AAA (or to be honest, even AA) who put up OPS's of .820, .787 and .904 from age 23-25 there would be howls to get him up to the majors - this is a guy who is "putting it together" and "entering his prime".

 

And then . . Nishioka fell off a cliff. We know how bad he was in MLB but even back in JPL at age 28-30 he's been pretty awful. Can't stop getting hurt, OPS the last three years of .728, .724, .690. Obviously we all wish that Nishioka had been signed by the White Sox instead but it's really a somewhat defensible signing. It's hard to beat the Twins up for it in a vacuum (that last part is big: I'm just referring to signing him, not to the part where we get rid of Hardy for two minor league relievers because he couldn't steal bases - in economic terms we're ignoring the opportunity cost and just looking at the move itself).

 

Nishioka has been a huge disappointment as a baseball player, not just as a Major Leaguer. His is that classic tale of a very exciting prospect who never kindled on the big stage.

 

Wow, analysis not predicated upon hindsight bias and an ability to see the future!  Refreshing.  The other alternative is to avoid the Asian market altogether because of one bad result and arguably bad signing.  

Slap hitter can't really shorten their swings anymore than they do which is why Nishi struggled with big league fastballs.  Park has a monster swing and power to all fields which leads me to believe he has a better chance to adjust and perhaps has the bat speed already to catch up.

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Nishioka was coming off back-to-back batting titles in Japan. He was more than a one-year wonder there.

Also... I don't know what evidence there is that scouts like Park better than Nishioka. The contracts aren't that dissimilar, which would lead me to believe that scouts in the know view Park as at least a moderate bust risk.

Nishioka's prior 4 years of OPS before coming to the Twins, with JPPL League mean OPS in parens. and difference between the two after the dash, in bold:

.759 (.706) - .053

.820 (.732) - .088

.787 (.740) - .047

.904 (.739) - .165

 

Park's prior 4 years of OPS (KBO mean OPS in parens.):

.954  (.698)  - .256

1.039 (.737) - .302

1.119 (.807) - .312

1.150 (.785) - .365

 

*drops mic*

[alarp33]

 

Nishioka's prior 4 years of OPS before coming to the Twins, with JPPL League mean OPS in parens. and difference between the two after the dash, in bold:

.759 (.706) - .053

.820 (.732) - .088

.787 (.740) - .047

.904 (.739) - .165

 

Park's prior 4 years of OPS (KBO mean OPS in parens.):

.954  (.698)  - .256

1.039 (.737) - .302

1.119 (.807) - .312

1.150 (.785) - .365

 

*drops mic*

 

I'm not really sure how any of this is relevant. You ignored position and age.  

 

Park is going to be able to catch up to a major league fastball, or he isn't.  Nishioka has nothing to do with it. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I'm not really sure how any of this is relevant. You ignored position and age.  

 

Park is going to be able to catch up to a major league fastball, or he isn't.  Nishioka has nothing to do with it. 

LOL. The name of this thread is "Souhan: Park Won't Be Nishioka Part 2" and I was responding to someone expressly comparing Park to Nishioka, but yet somehow "Nishioka has nothing to do with it."

 

OK then.

 

I'm not saying Park has no risk attached to him (although the risk is low because of the size of the contract), or that he 100% will be able to hit well against MLB pitching (he might not). I'm just saying there is no reason to compare him to Nishioka.

[alarp33]

 

LOL. The name of this thread is "Souhan: Park Won't Be Nishioka Part 2" and I was responding to someone expressly comparing Park to Nishioka, but yet somehow "Nishioka has nothing to do with it."

 

OK then.

 

I'm not saying Park has no risk attached to him (although the risk is low because of the size of the contract), or that he 100% will be able to hit well against MLB pitching (he might not). I'm just saying there is no reason to compare him to Nishioka.

 

Maybe I misunderstood.  *drops mic* led me to believe you thought you had it solved. And that Park was clearly going to be good. 

[nicksaviking]

His entire four year contract is what Nolasco is going to make each of the next two years, and I think most people, fairly or not, have already written off Nolasco as a sunk cost. There is so little risk here it seems pretty needless to even worry about it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nishioka sure didn't seem like a diva when he returned cash to the Twins to terminate the contract.  Seems petty to trash talk about him after that (and the various Twins misjudgments that contributed to his American career).

[alarp33]

 

His entire four year contract is what Nolasco is going to make each of the next two years, and I think most people, fairly or not, have already written off Nolasco as a sunk cost. There is so little risk here it seems pretty needless to even worry about it.

 

The risk is the trickle down effect on the roster.  See the 9 page Sano to RF thread.  

 

If Sano gets hurt in April while trying to learn RF.... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

His entire four year contract is what Nolasco is going to make each of the next two years, and I think most people, fairly or not, have already written off Nolasco as a sunk cost. There is so little risk here it seems pretty needless to even worry about it.

Let's not ignore the posting fee.  Still not a whole lot of money, $6 mil AAV, but his next 4 years (total) basically involve the same financial commitment as Nolasco's next 2 (total).  Which in Nolasco's case, could be enough to adversely affect roster decisions around him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nishioka's prior 4 years of OPS before coming to the Twins, with JPPL League mean OPS in parens. and difference between the two after the dash, in bold:

.759 (.706) - .053

.820 (.732) - .088

.787 (.740) - .047

.904 (.739) - .165

 

Park's prior 4 years of OPS (KBO mean OPS in parens.):

.954  (.698)  - .256

1.039 (.737) - .302

1.119 (.807) - .312

1.150 (.785) - .365

 

*drops mic*

You might want to pick up that mic.  Obviously they are different people and very different styles of hitter which influences these numbers, but at a lower level of play (and most consider KBO lower than JPPL), it's much easier to out-perform the league by a wide margin, so these relative differences aren't all that meaningful above their already-understood different hitting profiles.  Also, according to B-Ref, Nishioka was 4.6 years younger than the average JPPL player in his final season there.  Up until that point of his career relative to the KBO, Park was a below league-average hitter overall.

 

Again, different people and very different styles of hitter, and Park should transition better simply because it would be difficult to fail as badly as Nishioka, but I don't think it's wrong to acknowledge they were acquired in a similar manner (same team, same posting system, similar salaries), and faced a similar general transition.

[puckstopper1]

 

So I went to look at Nishioka's baseball reference page and it's really kind of baffling. I know hindsight says the Twins made a terrible call based on one season of unsustainable performance but it's way more complicated than that.

 

Nishioka did have a bang up year right before he came but he also had two good years before that. He was turning 26, entering his prime. If you consider that the JPL is often considered just better than AAA (but let's call it AAA to be safe) it makes a pretty defensible call. If the Twins had a middle infield prospect in AAA (or to be honest, even AA) who put up OPS's of .820, .787 and .904 from age 23-25 there would be howls to get him up to the majors - this is a guy who is "putting it together" and "entering his prime".

 

And then . . Nishioka fell off a cliff. We know how bad he was in MLB but even back in JPL at age 28-30 he's been pretty awful. Can't stop getting hurt, OPS the last three years of .728, .724, .690. Obviously we all wish that Nishioka had been signed by the White Sox instead but it's really a somewhat defensible signing. It's hard to beat the Twins up for it in a vacuum (that last part is big: I'm just referring to signing him, not to the part where we get rid of Hardy for two minor league relievers because he couldn't steal bases - in economic terms we're ignoring the opportunity cost and just looking at the move itself).

 

Nishioka has been a huge disappointment as a baseball player, not just as a Major Leaguer. His is that classic tale of a very exciting prospect who never kindled on the big stage.

I suspect the $6M he earned from the Twins may have played into this.  He came over and made his fortune and didn't need to "work" at his craft any longer.

[nytwinsfan]

 

You might want to pick up that mic.  Obviously they are different people and very different styles of hitter which influences these numbers, but at a lower level of play (and most consider KBO lower than JPPL), it's much easier to out-perform the league by a wide margin, so these relative differences aren't all that meaningful above their already-understood different hitting profiles.  Also, according to B-Ref, Nishioka was 4.6 years younger than the average JPPL player in his final season there.  Up until that point of his career relative to the KBO, Park was a below league-average hitter overall.

 

Again, different people and very different styles of hitter, and Park should transition better simply because it would be difficult to fail as badly as Nishioka, but I don't think it's wrong to acknowledge they were acquired in a similar manner (same team, same posting system, similar salaries), and faced a similar general transition.

I have no problem with the last paragraph, but that's not the qualified, reasonable argument I was responding to.

 

As to the first paragraph, I just see that as nitpicking. The point of my post is just HOW MUCH SIGNIFICANTLY better than league average Park is versus Nishioka. And I don't think I've heard that KBO is less of a league than JPPL, just that it is more of a hitter's league, which is what the comparison to average OPS accounts for. As to age thing, Park was above average in 2011, his age 24 season as well, and people forget he had two years of military service in 2007 and 2008, so it is understandable that he was only league average as a 22 and 23 year old coming off two years of military service. In the five years since then he has been great, with four years of dominance.

 

If other people really think the difference between being a 4-year average .088 above league average OPS hitter and 4-year average .309 above league average OPS hitter can be explained away by a few years age difference (despite the military service) or a perceived slight difference in league quality, then fine. I don't think hat is reasonable for a second, and I think most people will agree with me.

[nicksaviking]

The risk is the trickle down effect on the roster.  See the 9 page Sano to RF thread.  

 

If Sano gets hurt in April while trying to learn RF....

 

If the Twins hadn't signed Park and kept Plouffe, Sano almost certainly would be looking at the DH spot.

 

Committing him to DH at this age sounds like a worse fate than learning the OF.

[alarp33]

 

If the Twins hadn't signed Park and kept Plouffe, Sano almost certainly would be looking at the DH spot.

Committing him to DH at this age sounds like a worse fate than learning the OF.

 

Handing him a 1B mitt, and having him play 25 games there, 25 games at 3b, and 100 at DH and watching him hit 40 home runs sounds like a tad bit better fate than watching him butcher RF and potentially get hurt... but maybe thats just me.