Reusse article on Adam Brett Walker

[gunnarthor]

http://www.startribune.com/as-always-twins-prospect-walker-looking-to-connect/368566581/

 

Article is a fun read, his mother might be the best athlete in the family.  I don't know if Walker will make it but I really, really hope he does.  

 

Fun little quote:

"Allen was the hitting coach for Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League last year, a team with Walker and six other Twins prospects that won the AFL championship.

“Adam hit one in a game at our park … there’s a berm that has to be 50 yards behind the left field fence, and he hit it over the berm,” Allen said. “One of our coaches who had been in baseball a long time said, ‘Chad, that might be the farthest ball I’ve ever seen hit.’

“Obviously, with those strikeout numbers, Adam’s still in the process. But if he continues to learn what a pitcher is trying to do to him, and stays aggressive in the zone where ‘he’ likes the ball …

“I’m telling you, raw power, the only guy I ever saw who hits ’em where Adam hits it when he gets one was Mark McGwire.”"

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, not a lot of people seem to think that he will be able to transition to the big leagues well, and history would probably not disagree with them... but I still say let's let it play out for awhile. Let's see if he starts in AA or AAA... And let's be patient. 

 

He is a tremendous person and I really hope that he can make a few adjustments and make it.

[drjim]

He strikes me as a guy who would benefit from a roster expansion to 26 (or more). Does seem like he could carve out a role a lefty masher even if he can't work through his contact issues. That position just isn't that common in today's roster crunch.

[DaveW]

He strikes me as a guy who would benefit from a roster expansion to 26 (or more). Does seem like he could carve out a role a lefty masher even if he can't work through his contact issues. That position just isn't that common in today's roster crunch.

He wouldn't benefit from it on this team. The twins fascination with carrying 3 catchers and 13 pitchers will prevent that even if they get to 26 total

[BoomBoom]

Anybody who hits .292 (BA) with a .503 (OBP) when they are ahead in the count (last year in AA) has a chance.  Great kid and I'm praying for him to make those adjustments.  Doubles excite me as much as the home runs. Good article.

[drjim]

 

He wouldn't benefit from it on this team. The twins fascination with carrying 3 catchers and 13 pitchers will prevent that even if they get to 26 total

 

3 catchers is still a thing, eh?

[bird]

 

He wouldn't benefit from it on this team. The twins fascination with carrying 3 catchers and 13 pitchers will prevent that even if they get to 26 total

 

 

right

[Kwak]

If ABW succeeds in Rochester the same as at the lower levels, he'll push Rosario to the 4th OF--unless the Twins made a trade!  HR sluggers are very trade-able  anf for some very useful pieces.

[DocBauer]

My prediction? With so many OF's available for Rochester to begin the season...Walker, Benson, Mastroianni, Kepler, Sweeney, Rodriguez (also 1B), and MAYBE Quentin, and even with outstanding 2015 AA production...I could see Walker beginning '16 at AA for the first month. I don't want it to happen, but let's be honest...there are a lot of players and pitchers that have a certain something to work on, and beginning where they left off the previous year helps springboard their next season. I could see that here.

[Seth Stohs]

My prediction? With so many OF's available for Rochester to begin the season...Walker, Benson, Mastroianni, Kepler, Sweeney, Rodriguez (also 1B), and MAYBE Quentin, and even with outstanding 2015 AA production...I could see Walker beginning '16 at AA for the first month. I don't want it to happen, but let's be honest...there are a lot of players and pitchers that have a certain something to work on, and beginning where they left off the previous year helps springboard their next season. I could see that here.

I don't think it would be a bad thing for him at all.

[gunnarthor]

 

3 catchers is still a thing, eh?

Some narratives survive despite facts.

[TNLooky2015]

 

My prediction? With so many OF's available for Rochester to begin the season....I could see Walker beginning '16 at AA for the first month. I don't want it to happen, but let's be honest...there are a lot of players and pitchers that have a certain something to work on, and beginning where they left off the previous year helps springboard their next season. I could see that here.

 

Walker had 27 HRs and 109 RBI under Tommy Watkins guidance as the hitting coach (2013) and had a 20% K rate.  Best of his career.  Maybe Mr. Watkins knows something the other coaches didn't when it came to Walker's everyday approach.  Maybe it's not such a bad thing.  Travis Harrison also had 15 HRs under Watkins as well.  Hasn't been close since.  DJ Hicks led the minors in RBI (110) under Watkins.  Hasn't been close since.  Oh yeah - That was Buxtons best year as well (haha).

[BoomBoom]

MLB - AL Central Prospect Projections

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160125&content_id=162671830&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

Would that be enough? or At least something to build on?

[beckmt]

Walker will probably get a chance at some point in time.  Hope he starts in AAA, expect that some of the 4 outfielders signed this winter(for depth) (Benson, Mastro, Sweeney, Quentin) will be released during spring training. At least I hope they do, can't block all the OF prospects at AA.

[DaveW]

3 catchers is still a thing, eh?

It would be if the Twins went to a 26 man roster, without a doubt.

[TNLooky2015]

BP this past week.  

 

Outfield Drills this past week

[drjim]

One other thought on Walker, it would be interesting to start him at AA and see if he can improve his bb/k ratios. Twins have been pretty aggressive with him, bumping him a level each year, wonder if it might be of some benefit to give him some consolidation time.

 

He has been inching up his bb rate the last couple of years with a corresponding larger jump in k rate. Would be interesting to see if another half year at AA would keep inching up the bb rate (maybe to 11ish%) and also drop back down the k rate (say, to 27ish% from the 34% last year).

 

As a 24 yo in AA, a 11/27 split is not great, but you can squint and see a guy who can survive in the bigs, and hope for some improvement as he gets more pa.

 

Maybe loading up on those minor league fa ofs wasn't the worst idea. In addition to backing up a young mlb of, it gives some more time to prospects that might need it. Will be interesting to see where AB Walker starts the season.

[shs_59]

I have OF as follows:

 

(obviously this will change by the end of Spring Training, but if I had it MY way it would be:)

 

MLB :  Rosario, Santana, Sano     - reserves: Arcia and 1 of Maestro/ Benson/ Sweeney

  +Eduardo Nunez can back-up Left-Field

leaving infield of Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, and Park.

+ Suzuki and Murphy (thats our 13 guys)

 

AAA :   Kepler, Buxton, Benson , ect.

 

AA :  Walker, Harrison, Wilkerson, ect.

 

A.B. Walker can move up to AAA in May or Early June when Buxton gets the call to the Bigs to man CF the rest of the year!  :-)

 

Rosario / Nunez in Left............ Buxton/ Santana in Center .........Sano/ Arcia in Right

[TNLooky2015]

What do prospects learn in AA that they don't learn in AAA?  Is there a particular pitching style to learn from in AA and AAA?  Is that why players need to repeat a level in AA or AAA?  So many pitchers shuffle through a minor league season, that I remain troubled of the thought of learning "something" special at a particular level.  The Lookouts kept 4 of their opening day 13 pitchers.  

 

I'm not here to disagree.  I just don't know what Walker is expected to learn back at AA that he can't learn from AAA?  Are Fastballs different?  Are Change Ups different?  Is command that much different?  Etc. etc..  My only thought for keeping him in AA was to reconnect and work with coach Watkins.

[Kwak]

It would be foolish to ever play Walker at AA.  It is (past) time to advance Walker and challenge him to force his way unto the Active Roster.  Enough time has been  wasted on the retreads and never-were's from the dumpster.  Focus on those in the system and challenge them--if they fail, they fail.  There are plenty more "prospects" in the sea. 

[drjim]

It would be foolish to ever play Walker at AA. It is (past) time to advance Walker and challenge him to force his way unto the Active Roster. Enough time has been wasted on the retreads and never-were's from the dumpster. Focus on those in the system and challenge them--if they fail, they fail. There are plenty more "prospects" in the sea.

I don't see the rush. It is far from "past time" to move him up, he has clear holes in his game he can work on. There isn't exactly a wave of OFs pushing him.

[drjim]

 

What do prospects learn in AA that they don't learn in AAA?  Is there a particular pitching style to learn from in AA and AAA?  Is that why players need to repeat a level in AA or AAA?  So many pitchers shuffle through a minor league season, that I remain troubled of the thought of learning "something" special at a particular level.  The Lookouts kept 4 of their opening day 13 pitchers.  

 

I'm not here to disagree.  I just don't know what Walker is expected to learn back at AA that he can't learn from AAA?  Are Fastballs different?  Are Change Ups different?  Is command that much different?  Etc. etc..  My only thought for keeping him in AA was to reconnect and work with coach Watkins.

 

Fair point and a matter of preference.

 

I see AA as having better stuff, less experience and command.

 

AAA is more veteran, some mlb vets, 40 man depth and usually better pitchability. You'll also see the occasional top guy that hasn't broken through yet (think Berrios).

 

In a sense he could learn either level, but as I said before, I just don't see the rush. He clearly has things to work on if he is ever going to be an effective big leaguer, and I guess I would advocate doing that at AA and try and master that level before moving up. Twins have the ability to be a little patient, and he is not in danger of being passed up.

[Kwak]

It's not rushing--he's dominated every level he's played at.  The next level is AAA.  Evaluate him there.  There is no need to bring back the failures like Quentin, Mastroianni, Sweeney, Benson, etc. and hold a spot at AAA for any of them.  The OF prospects of the Twins are many and they need to be challenged by climbing the system to see if they "have it".  There is absolutely no need to salvage wrecks when the pipeline is full.  I don't know if Walker will succeed or fail--but decisions need to be made on which prospects are the future--and which need to be moved to another team in hopes of filling slots elsewhere in the organization.  Wait too long--and the guy becomes untradeable for anybody of value.

[drjim]

 

It's not rushing--he's dominated every level he's played at.  The next level is AAA.  Evaluate him there.  There is no need to bring back the failures like Quentin, Mastroianni, Sweeney, Benson, etc. and hold a spot at AAA for any of them.  The OF prospects of the Twins are many and they need to be challenged by climbing the system to see if they "have it".  There is absolutely no need to salvage wrecks when the pipeline is full.  I don't know if Walker will succeed or fail--but decisions need to be made on which prospects are the future--and which need to be moved to another team in hopes of filling slots elsewhere in the organization.  Wait too long--and the guy becomes untradeable for anybody of value.

 

The OF pipeline is actually not all that robust after Walker.

 

And Walker really doesn't have that much trade value right now if that is your concern. Might be able to get a half season of a reliever or a corner bat. Keeping him in AA for a little bit longer won't change that.

[Guest]

 

It's not rushing--he's dominated every level he's played at.  

 

Except no, he has not dominated AA, unless you believe that demonstrating enormous power is all that it takes to dominate a level.

 

There is no question in anyone's mind that Walker has something to work on before he could be considered a usable MLB outfielder. The strikeouts need to be addressed. He won't have "dominated" AA until he's made some progress there.

 

I don't agree that you plug him in at AAA to sink or swim. You just don't develop future big leaguers that way. You can't. Way too many would sink. You put them at levels that continue to challenge them as they refine and improve those aspects of their game that still need work and Walker has at least one aspect that falls in that category.

 

If the Twins decide, for any reason, that Walker's best chance for improving his K rate and thus giving him a better chance of "swimming" at AAA and MLB, I'm OK with that. (I'm also just fine if they decide he can work at that in Rochester and start him there.)

 

The point is, if the Twins decide to keep some of the Mastro/Sweeney/Benson types around at AAA while Walker and others repeat AA for a time, that's a perfectly legitimate strategy. Some of those players might be kept around in case performance/injury issues open up a need in the Twins OF that Walker simply would not yet be ready to fill in the early part of 2016 (if at all).

 

[Thrylos]

 

It's not rushing--he's dominated every level he's played at. 

 

.246/.307/.436 Slash Line in Fort Myers.   I don't see much domination there. 

 

But let's take all his seasons:

2012 Elizabethton: .805 OPS, 8th in the team
2013 Cedar Rapids: .844 OPS, 4th in the team
2014 Fort Myers: .743 OPS, 8th in the team
2015 Chattanooga: .807 OPS, 5th in the team

 

So he was not even the best hitter in his team by far.   Even that .844 in the midwest league is not dominance.  Vargas had 1.030 OPS in that league.

 

Look at Sano's numbers.  THAT is dominance.

Walker has been an average player in his teams.  Ability to hit HRs aside.

[bird]

 

It's not rushing--he's dominated every level he's played at.  

 

Yeah, he dominated the leader board for strikeouts. 

 

To me, it doesn't much matter, AAA or AA. It's about where he gets the best chance to improve. He'll get plenty of attention this spring and the field staff will see if he's showing signs of figuring out what pitchers are doing to him.

 

As for the angst about time being wasted or spots being taken up by "failures"? Not really. Every one of those guys will have to show something to stick.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

One other thought on Walker, it would be interesting to start him at AA and see if he can improve his bb/k ratios. Twins have been pretty aggressive with him, bumping him a level each year, wonder if it might be of some benefit to give him some consolidation time.

 

He has been inching up his bb rate the last couple of years with a corresponding larger jump in k rate. Would be interesting to see if another half year at AA would keep inching up the bb rate (maybe to 11ish%) and also drop back down the k rate (say, to 27ish% from the 34% last year).

 

As a 24 yo in AA, a 11/27 split is not great, but you can squint and see a guy who can survive in the bigs, and hope for some improvement as he gets more pa.

 

Maybe loading up on those minor league fa ofs wasn't the worst idea. In addition to backing up a young mlb of, it gives some more time to prospects that might need it. Will be interesting to see where AB Walker starts the season.

 

The more I think about it, I think this might be best for him.  He's clearly improving in the BB category, and perhaps seeing if those are sustainable and that he can make a drop in his K rate might be good for him.  At AA he's a call up away regardless, but truthfully, he's going to be behind Arcia, Kepler, Rosario, and until Plouffe is traded Sano for any corner spot. I'd add that I suspect Sweeney could work himself into that mix too if he's doing well and Buxton forces things at center. 

 

Walker will likely see some time if injuries get in the way, but I suspect the bulk of year 1 on the 40 man for him will be in the minors.  Letting him spend a month or two in AA to see if the changes he's been working on are legit isn't a bad idea at all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And it seems his midseason BB/K "improvement" in 2015 corresponded with his performance tanking otherwise.  .201/.288/.368, .656 OPS from July through September last season.  He clearly has things he can continue to work on in AA.

[BoomBoom]

 

.246/.307/.436 Slash Line in Fort Myers.   I don't see much domination there. 

 

But let's take all his seasons:

2012 Elizabethton: .805 OPS, 8th in the team
2013 Cedar Rapids: .844 OPS, 4th in the team
2014 Fort Myers: .743 OPS, 8th in the team
2015 Chattanooga: .807 OPS, 5th in the team

 

So he was not even the best hitter in his team by far.   Even that .844 in the midwest league is not dominance.  Vargas had 1.030 OPS in that league.

 

Look at Sano's numbers.  THAT is dominance.

Walker has been an average player in his teams.  Ability to hit HRs aside.

Actually his number are very good.  Just because other guys have Superior numbers don't make his number shabby.  If someone sells 50 million records and you sell 5 million - You still have a Gold record.  That's pretty damn good.  Let's pay attention to who we compare people to all the time.  Vargas and Sano had incredible Future Star Game seasons.  What Walker does well is lead his leagues in Total Bases.  That is not done by hitting home runs alone.   31 Doubles in AA is not shabby.  You seem to be the one blinded by his home runs alone.  250 Total Bases is impressive for anyone in 131 games.  That's his calling card.  Every player has one.