Which active players should/will make it to the HOF

[Hrbowski]

You can post lists below of who you think should, below is mine:

 

Let's start with the obvious pitchers:

 

Felix Hernandez

Clayton Kershaw

Madison Bumgarner

 

And now the highly probable:

 

Justin Verlander

David Price

Max Scherzer

CC Sabathia

 

And now the very good chance, but may be declining:

 

Cole Hamels

Zack Greinke

Tim Lincecum

Jered Weaver

 

And now the ones who could move into the discussion:

 

Jake Arrieta

Corey Kluber

Craig Kimbrel

Chris Sale

 

Here are the highly probable hitters:

 

Albert Pujols

Ichiro Suzuki

Miguel Cabrera

Adrian Beltre

David Ortiz

 

And now the highly probable:

 

Mike Trout

Bryce Harper

Buster Posey

Joe Mauer

Joey Votto

Dustin Pedroia

Andrew McCutchen

Yadier Molina

Carlos Beltran

 

And the ones who could move into the discussion:

 

Josh Donaldson

Alex Rodriguez

Matt Holliday

Giancarlo Stanton

Robinson Cano

Jimmy Rollins

Adrian Gonzalez

Victor Martinez

Ryan Braun

Prince Fielder

Troy Tulowitzki

Mark Teixeira

 

Of course some of these won't make it, and others will make it on the veteran's committee.

 

[drjim]

I would say Kershaw is pretty much in, Felix is on a great trajectory, Bumgarner has work to do but has a great base.

 

Agree on first list of hitters, and not sold on many more. Don't want to predict anything for Harper/Trout but they are certainly off to a good start.

 

Posey/Molina/Cutch/Stanton cerainly worthwhile to track.

 

And I have a feeling a rookie or four from this class might put themself in the conversation. Correa is my first guess.

[drjim]

I shoulf add A Rod too. Clearly deserves it based on production.

 

Cano would need quite a rebound.

 

Sale too if he somehow stays healthy.

[gunnarthor]

I don't think any current pitcher is a lock but I think CC, Kershaw, Grienke, Buerhle, King Felix should.  A few others have HOF talent but it's too early to tell - (Price, Sale). 

 

A few hitters would be locks (esp if we keep the PED specter out of this) and I think ARod, Pujols, Miggy, Ichiro, Wright, Mauer, Beltre all absolutely belong.  Beltran might be there too.  Utley's a good litmus test on how much you value you peak over longevity.  Trout and Cano aren't there yet but are close. 

 

Guys like Kinsler, Pedroia, Longo, Ortiz, Texeira probably don't make it.

[jimmer]

About your list, it's a list that promotes good discussion. Few thoughts on it:

 

I don't think Bumgardner is a shoo-in at all, he's a quality pitcher, and he had a legendary W Series performance in 2014, but he doesn't have a CY nor has he been in top 3 in voting,  He's never led the league in ERA, Ks, IP, ERA+, Wins, Etc.  All the things that get looked at, whether I agree with all of that or not.  If Mussina can't get in (and he likely won't though he should) I doubt Bums deserves it.  

 

I think Weaver has zero chance.

 

I think Trout will definitely get in unless he just crashes and burns, which I can't see happening.

 

I think Molina will definitely make it. If you value defense (both throwing guys out and calling a game), he's likely a top 5 catcher ever.  He's the Ozzie Smith of catchers.

 

I think Mauer should for what he accomplished as a catcher, but he likely won't now due to his drop-off unless he can come back strong.

 

ARod and Braun likely won't due to PED stuff and in ARod's case, one can add the media dislike for him as well. 

 

Stanton will very likely make it unless he just drops off a cliff.  His talent is too strong.  

 

Tulo won't due to the Coors Field bias.

[Thrylos]

I really like to look at WAR as a  good indicator of a career. There are others to supplement WAR, but WAR is a good one for a rough cut.  My usual cut for HOF  is around 75.

 

Here are active career leaders in bWAR (pitchers) (seasons, age)  :

 

1. Mark Buehrle (16, 36) 59.2 L
2. CC Sabathia (15, 34) 54.9 L
3. Felix Hernandez (11, 29) 49.8 R
4. Zack Greinke (12, 31) 48.6 R
5. Clayton Kershaw (8, 27) 47.2 L
6. Bartolo Colon (18, 42) 46.1 R
7. Cole Hamels (10, 31) 44.8 L
8. Justin Verlander (11, 32) 43.9 R
9. Cliff Lee (13, 36) 43.3 L
10. Jake Peavy (14, 34) 38.7 R
11. Jered Weaver (10, 32) 36.7 R
12. Freddy Garcia (15, 38) 35.7 R
  Jon Lester (10, 31) 35.7 L
14. John Lackey (13, 36) 34.4 R
15. Adam Wainwright (10, 33) 33.4 R
16. Matt Cain (11, 30) 31.7 R
17. Max Scherzer (8, 30) 31.1 R
18. David Price (8, 29) 29.2 L
19. James Shields (10, 33) 28.6 R
20. Bronson Arroyo (15, 38) 27.2 R
21. Chris Sale (6, 26) 26.2 L
22. Joe Nathan (15, 40) 26.1 R
23. Johnny Cueto (8, 29) 25.9 R
24. Francisco Rodriguez (14, 33) 23.9 R
25. Josh Johnson (9, 31) 23.8 R
26. Jonathan Papelbon (11, 34) 23.6 R
  Anibal Sanchez (10, 31) 23.6 R
28. Aaron Harang (14, 37) 23.5 R
29. Tim Lincecum (9, 31) 22.9 R
30. Scott Kazmir (11, 31) 22.8 L
31. Ubaldo Jimenez (10, 31) 22.5 R
32. John Danks (9, 30) 21.7 L
33. R.A. Dickey (13, 40) 20.6 R
  Kyle Lohse (15, 36) 20.6 R
35. Madison Bumgarner (7, 25) 20.2 L

 

While there are the following non-hall of famers:

Mike Mussina 82.7
Curt Schilling 79.9

 

Kershaw, Fernandez and Greinke need a good 8-10 seasons to be in the conversation, with Kershaw ahead of the others because the CY Awards and leading the league in a whole bunch of stuff.

 

Here are position players:

 

1. Alex Rodriguez (21, 39) 118.9 R
2. Albert Pujols (15, 35) 99.7 R
3. Adrian Beltre (18, 36) 83.8 R
--------
4. Carlos Beltran (18, 38) 68.4 B
5. Miguel Cabrera (13, 32) 64.7 R
6. Chase Utley (13, 36) 62.3 L
7. Ichiro Suzuki (15, 41) 58.4 L
8. Robinson Cano (11, 32) 55.1 L
9. Mark Teixeira (13, 35) 52.4 B
10. David Ortiz (19, 39) 50.4 L
11. David Wright (12, 32) 50.1 R
12. Joe Mauer (12, 32) 47.8 L
13. Miguel Tejada (16, 41) 46.9 R
14. Ian Kinsler (10, 33) 46.7 R
15. Jimmy Rollins (16, 36) 46.0 B
16. Dustin Pedroia (10, 31) 45.1 R
17. Matt Holliday (12, 35) 44.1 R
18. Joey Votto (9, 31) 43.4 L

 

and

 

Jim Thome 72.9
Alan Trammell 70.4
Scott Rolen 70.0
Manny Ramirez 69.2
Tim Raines 69.1

 

The first 3 should be in, Cabrera needs 4-5  good seasons to be considered Ortiz, Texeira, Suzuki etc don't make it.  I cannot see even how Mauer and Sano make it.

 

The rest outside of the lists are to young to tell.  If you looked at Gooden's first 4 seasons he was a certain Hall of Famer for example... By age 23 he had 29.3 bWAR which is higher than David Price's at age 29.

So not sure there are many sure HOFers who are currently active other that the 3 position players I mentioned and one of them will likely not get in because of the steroid situation (and Beltre tested positive for HGH, so who knows?)

 

 

[bluechipper]

I'm going to start with some disagreements from the original post. 

 

Pitchers:

 

Justin Verlander is not a HOFer. The MVP and Cy Young was great, but the 3.52 career ERA isn't. 20 % chance

Tim Lincecum has two Cy Youngs, but a 3.61 ERA and too short of a peak. 1% chance.

Jered Weaver was very good, but not a HOFer. 0% chance.

 

Hitters:

Josh Donaldson is already 30 years old, has "just" 104 career homers. 5% chance.

Victor Martinez. Less than 1% chance.

Jimmy Rollins. Less than 5% chance.

Ryan Braun. Negative 100% chance.

Matt Holliday. Less than 1% chance.

[bluechipper]

 

I really like to look at WAR as a  good indicator of a career. There are others to supplement WAR, but WAR is a good one for a rough cut.  My usual cut for HOF  is around 75.

 

Here are active career leaders in bWAR (pitchers) (seasons, age)  :

 

1. Mark Buehrle (16, 36) 59.2 L
2. CC Sabathia (15, 34) 54.9 L
3. Felix Hernandez (11, 29) 49.8 R
4. Zack Greinke (12, 31) 48.6 R
5. Clayton Kershaw (8, 27) 47.2 L
6. Bartolo Colon (18, 42) 46.1 R
7. Cole Hamels (10, 31) 44.8 L
8. Justin Verlander (11, 32) 43.9 R
9. Cliff Lee (13, 36) 43.3 L
10. Jake Peavy (14, 34) 38.7 R
11. Jered Weaver (10, 32) 36.7 R
12. Freddy Garcia (15, 38) 35.7 R
  Jon Lester (10, 31) 35.7 L
14. John Lackey (13, 36) 34.4 R
15. Adam Wainwright (10, 33) 33.4 R
16. Matt Cain (11, 30) 31.7 R
17. Max Scherzer (8, 30) 31.1 R
18. David Price (8, 29) 29.2 L
19. James Shields (10, 33) 28.6 R
20. Bronson Arroyo (15, 38) 27.2 R
21. Chris Sale (6, 26) 26.2 L
22. Joe Nathan (15, 40) 26.1 R
23. Johnny Cueto (8, 29) 25.9 R
24. Francisco Rodriguez (14, 33) 23.9 R
25. Josh Johnson (9, 31) 23.8 R
26. Jonathan Papelbon (11, 34) 23.6 R
  Anibal Sanchez (10, 31) 23.6 R
28. Aaron Harang (14, 37) 23.5 R
29. Tim Lincecum (9, 31) 22.9 R
30. Scott Kazmir (11, 31) 22.8 L
31. Ubaldo Jimenez (10, 31) 22.5 R
32. John Danks (9, 30) 21.7 L
33. R.A. Dickey (13, 40) 20.6 R
  Kyle Lohse (15, 36) 20.6 R
35. Madison Bumgarner (7, 25) 20.2 L

 

While there are the following non-hall of famers:

Mike Mussina 82.7
Curt Schilling 79.9

 

Kershaw, Fernandez and Greinke need a good 8-10 seasons to be in the conversation, with Kershaw ahead of the others because the CY Awards and leading the league in a whole bunch of stuff.

 

Here are position players:

 

1. Alex Rodriguez (21, 39) 118.9 R
2. Albert Pujols (15, 35) 99.7 R
3. Adrian Beltre (18, 36) 83.8 R
--------
4. Carlos Beltran (18, 38) 68.4 B
5. Miguel Cabrera (13, 32) 64.7 R
6. Chase Utley (13, 36) 62.3 L
7. Ichiro Suzuki (15, 41) 58.4 L
8. Robinson Cano (11, 32) 55.1 L
9. Mark Teixeira (13, 35) 52.4 B
10. David Ortiz (19, 39) 50.4 L
11. David Wright (12, 32) 50.1 R
12. Joe Mauer (12, 32) 47.8 L
13. Miguel Tejada (16, 41) 46.9 R
14. Ian Kinsler (10, 33) 46.7 R
15. Jimmy Rollins (16, 36) 46.0 B
16. Dustin Pedroia (10, 31) 45.1 R
17. Matt Holliday (12, 35) 44.1 R
18. Joey Votto (9, 31) 43.4 L

 

and

 

Jim Thome 72.9
Alan Trammell 70.4
Scott Rolen 70.0
Manny Ramirez 69.2
Tim Raines 69.1

 

The first 3 should be in, Cabrera needs 4-5  good seasons to be considered Ortiz, Texeira, Suzuki etc don't make it.  I cannot see even how Mauer and Sano make it.

 

The rest outside of the lists are to young to tell.  If you looked at Gooden's first 4 seasons he was a certain Hall of Famer for example... By age 23 he had 29.3 bWAR which is higher than David Price's at age 29.

So not sure there are many sure HOFers who are currently active other that the 3 position players I mentioned and one of them will likely not get in because of the steroid situation (and Beltre tested positive for HGH, so who knows?)

You mentioned something that I'm confused by. Why is there so little media talk about David Ortiz and steroid use? That suspicion and him being a DH should make it a really tough case for him being a HOFer.

[jimmer]

I wish Holliday would get more consideration.  Career BA over .300, career OBP in the .380s,  OPS in the 900s. OPS+ close to 140. Proved his talent wasn't about Coors Field. In 12 years he's gotten to the AS game 7 times, gotten votes in the MVP voting 8 times (and should have win it in 2007).  Very under-rated ball player.  Much better version of Jim Rice.

[bluechipper]

 

I don't think any current pitcher is a lock but I think CC, Kershaw, Grienke, Buerhle, King Felix should.  A few others have HOF talent but it's too early to tell - (Price, Sale). 

 

A few hitters would be locks (esp if we keep the PED specter out of this) and I think ARod, Pujols, Miggy, Ichiro, Wright, Mauer, Beltre all absolutely belong.  Beltran might be there too.  Utley's a good litmus test on how much you value you peak over longevity.  Trout and Cano aren't there yet but are close. 

 

Guys like Kinsler, Pedroia, Longo, Ortiz, Texeira probably don't make it.

No chance for Mark Buerhle. If Jack Morris can't get in, then Buerhle and his 3.81 ERA shouldn't either.

 

David Wright isn't very likely either. He's only got 1700 hits, no MVPs, and probably is on the decline.

[bluechipper]

 

I wish Holliday would get more consideration.  Career BA over .300, career OBP in the .380s,  OPS in the 900s. OPS+ close to 140. Proved his talent wasn't about Coors Field. In 12 years he's gotten to the AS game 7 times, gotten votes in the MVP voting 8 times (and should have win it in 2007).  Very under-rated ball player.  Much better version of Jim Rice.

I think Holliday is more of a Hall of Very Good. Not going to be enough counting numbers to get in (maybe 350 HRs and 2500 hits) with below average defense and a little help from Coors.

[jimmer]

Buehrle, ERA+ of 116. Jack Morris ERA+ of 105.  And for some reason, Glavine (who I always compare to Buehrle) was a first ballot HOFer with a 118 ERA+.  Likely due to the narrative about the Big Three.

[jimmer]

 

I think Holliday is more of a Hall of Very Good. Not going to be enough counting numbers to get in (maybe 350 HRs and 2500 hits) with below average defense and a little help from Coors.

The help from Coors can be tossed aside, or should, due to the fact he's actually been better in St Louis.

 

In any event, he definitely won't make it, but if he had played in Boston he would for sure (Jim Rice).

[bluechipper]

 

I shoulf add A Rod too. Clearly deserves it based on production.

Cano would need quite a rebound.

Sale too if he somehow stays healthy.

I think Cano is a good bet. Already with 2000 hits. Should finish with over 3000 and over 350 HRs with good defense at second.

[Thrylos]

 

You mentioned something that I'm confused by. Why is there so little media talk about David Ortiz and steroid use? That suspicion and him being a DH should make it a really tough case for him being a HOFer.

 

Even without being a DH and without PED, his numbers are too low for a HOFer.  They are lower that Edgar Martinez who is also a DH and never had PED issues.  So there is no way he is in.

[bluechipper]

 

The help from Coors can be tossed aside, or should, due to the fact he's actually been better in St Louis.

 

In any event, he definitely won't make it, but if he had played in Boston he would for sure (Jim Rice).

His batting and RBI title was won in Colorado, We've seen how easy those have come by for Rockies players lately. 

[bluechipper]

 

Buehrle, ERA+ of 116. Jack Morris ERA+ of 105.  And for some reason, Glavine (who I always compare to Buehrle) was a first ballot HOFer with a 118 ERA+.  Likely due to the narrative about the Big Three.

Those are some interesting and kind of surprising stats.

 

Still, I would have hoped that Morris' playoff heroics would have counted for more.

 

And c'mon guys, Morris pitched to the scoreboard.

[jimmer]

142 OPS+ in St Louis, 131 in Colorado.

[bluechipper]

 

142 OPS+ in St Louis, 131 in Colorado.

That's fair, but his counting stats were boosted some there. I like to look at that for HOFers and I think voters do too.

[jimmer]

 

 

And c'mon guys, Morris pitched to the scoreboard.

This is a thing I read a lot along with the idea that his ERA would have been lower if he didn't complete so many games (and one might say those scenarios often occurred at the same time).  Both of those narratives seem to be put in serious question when you consider that his ERA from innings 7-9 was better than between 1-3 or 4-6.  

 

Also, about his playoff heroics go, I think people remember those great W Series but forget the bad ones.  His playoff ERA is 3.80.  HIS ALCS ERA is close to 5.00.  

 

 

[jimmer]

 

That's fair, but his counting stats were boosted some there. I like to look at that for HOFers and I think voters do too.

It's why no player who spends any significant time in Colorado will be a HOFer.  It's unfair, really. Some great players will be discarded because of it (Larry Walker, Helton, Holliday, Tulo)

 

Holliday has easily dis-proven the idea he was a product of Coors Field and it's not like his away numbers, while with the Rockies, weren't really good too.  They were.

[bluechipper]

 

This is a thing I read a lot along with the idea that his ERA would have been lower if he didn't complete so many games (and one might say those scenarios often occurred at the same time).  Both of those narratives seem to be put in serious question when you consider that his ERA from innings 7-9 was better than between 1-3 or 4-6.  

 

Also, about his playoff heroics go, I think people remember those great W Series but forget the bad ones.  His playoff ERA is 3.80.  HIS ALCS ERA is close to 5.00.  

I didn't realize his playoff ERA was that high. That being said, winning one of the best baseball games in the history of the world makes up for it in my mind.

 

If I wasn't a Twins fan though, I probably wouldn't like the precedent that having a guy with a 3.91 ERA in the HOF sets. I like the exclusivity that it has.

[Hrbowski]

 

This is a thing I read a lot along with the idea that his ERA would have been lower if he didn't complete so many games (and one might say those scenarios often occurred at the same time).  Both of those narratives seem to be put in serious question when you consider that his ERA from innings 7-9 was better than between 1-3 or 4-6.  

 

Also, about his playoff heroics go, I think people remember those great W Series but forget the bad ones.  His playoff ERA is 3.80.  HIS ALCS ERA is close to 5.00.  

People have compared Bumgarner to Morris a lot, but I like to point out that Bumgarner is a better pitcher in the post season because of this, and Madison's success at all playoff levels.

[Hrbowski]

I forgot to include one of my favorites in Paul Goldschmidt, could be one of the greatest all around first baseman ever.

[USAFChief]

When I think of "who's a HOFer" among active players, I use "what if he quit playing today?" filter.

 

Assuming current players will continue on pace with past results doesn't work for me. I go by what they've done to date.

 

ARod clearly has the career, but I wouldn't vote for him, and I think he might struggle to get enough votes for obvious reasons.

 

Pujols is in, Miquel Cabrera is in. I think Adrian Beltre probably gets in, same for David Ortiz.

 

That's it for me. The rest need to finish out their career well.

[Hrbowski]

 

When I think of "who's a HOFer" among active players, I use "what if he quit playing today?" filter.

Assuming current players will continue on pace with past results doesn't work for me. I go by what they've done to date.

ARod clearly has the career, but I wouldn't vote for him, and I think he might struggle to get enough votes for obvious reasons.

Pujols is in, Miquel Cabrera is in. I think Adrian Beltre probably gets in, same for David Ortiz.

That's it for me. The rest need to finish out their career well.

What about Kershaw and Felix? Aren't they locks?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pitchers are fickle. I don't know if there's a lock to make the HoF right now. Maybe Sabathia. HoF pitchers only seem to separate themselves from the very good once they hit 33-34 years old. It's about prolonged play as much as it is about dominance.

 

I wouldn't even call Verlander a probable at this point. Greinke has a better shot than Justin.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What about Kershaw and Felix? Aren't they locks?

No one is a lock in their 20s.

 

See Santana, Johan.

[USAFChief]

No one is a lock in their 20s.

See Santana, Johan.

Concur. Neither get in based on current career.

 

Kershaw, in particular, is obviously on pace though.

[USAFChief]

Pitchers are fickle. I don't know if there's a lock to make the HoF right now. Maybe Sabathia. HoF pitchers only seem to separate themselves from the very good once they hit 33-34 years old. It's about prolonged play as much as it is about dominance.

I wouldn't even call Verlander a probable at this point. Greinke has a better shot than Justin.

It's going to be interesting to see how much wins are devalued in future HOF voting.

 

Not just because W's have taken a beating from statheads, but also because the continuing decline in starter usage is making 300 W's harder and harder to achieve.