The Front Office and Settling For Mediocrity

[sane]

"when has TR ever tried to sign or trade for an actual "star" or someone with "star potential"?

 

When they were pimping Johan Santana, he tried to trade for:

Carlos Gomez, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Bucholtz, and Phil Hughes (when he had "star potential").

[nicksaviking]

Dude you were just so far off base. Those were 4 off the top of my head, here are some more catchers who certainly aren't "boring"

 

Cervilli

Lucroy

Vogt

Grandal

Montero

Hundley

Castillo

Molina

 

 

That's not even including the Norris' of the world etc.

I see nothing special there and certainly nothing that can't be reached by anyone with even a modest ceiling, the first of which was an even more obscure Yankee backup catcher 12 months ago.

[bluechipper]

 

Dude you were just so far off base. Those were 4 off the top of my head, here are some more catchers who certainly aren't "boring"

 

Cervilli

Lucroy

Vogt

Grandal

Montero
Hundley

Castillo

Molina

 

 

That's not even including the Norris' of the world etc.

I don't think those names help your case much. If Nick Hundley is listed as one of the top players, you know the position is weak.

[sane]

How do you become a non-boring catcher?

 

Catch blasts while crashing into the outfield wall?

Dive to stop a hard-hit grounder?

Get knocked over by a come-backer?

Hot-dog it like AJ and Gary Carter?

or dive into a sunken dugout like Brian Harper?

 

My choice is Brian Harper.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Same rate as Billy Beane, actually.

Interestingly, Beane's only playoff series win was against TR, and TR's against Beane. I suggest they cancel each other out.

[DaveW]

 

(Buxton will immediately be more productive than Hicks
 

Immediately? Doubtful.

[jimmer]

 

Immediately? Doubtful.

immediately. just like he was this year :-)

[DaveW]

 

I don't think those names help your case much. If Nick Hundley is listed as one of the top players, you know the position is weak.

Snark all you want, but Hundley had an .807 OPS last year which was higher than EVERY SINGLE TWIN other than Sano last year. 50 points more than Dozier, 100 more than Hunter.

 

Hundley isn't great, and is close to the 12th best catcher then the 5th best.

[USAFChief]

For the record, the OP has a point.

 

I've seen many claims here that Murphy can hopefully, someday, be "league average."

 

That, by definition, IS mediocrity.

[twinsnorth49]

For the record, the OP has a point.

 

I've seen many claims here that Murphy can hopefully, someday, be "league average."

 

That, by definition, IS mediocrity.

If he's only talking about Murphy, point conceded. There seems to be a bit more grandstanding than that though.

[DaveW]

 

 

immediately. just like he was this year :-)

Yeah, exactly. You think the Twins would have learned the last time they traded a CF (or two) and just assumed Hicks would step in ASAP.

 

Buxton shouldn't be rushed, period, if he isn't ready now, he isn't ready, hopefully he will be ready in June or July (maybe earlier, who knows) but for now you create a hole in the OF.

 

If you are so content on trading Hicks for a non special player like Murphy, Why not wait until Buxton and Kepler are literally pushing Hicks out of a job? Instead you just hurt the current MLB ready OF depth, and an injury to Rosario or someone else suddenly has you running out Shane Robinson every day.

[bird]

 

immediately. just like he was this year :-)

 

 

Buxton being better at the plate in 2016 than Hicks might be doubtful, yes, but hardly as doubtful as DaveW's description of Hick's gold glove defense, 20 HR's and 20 SB's. Was that this year? :-)

 

But let's not obscure the irony of describing Hicks as something other than a "non-special" player, attaching that label to Murphy, and then declaring the decision to be just another example of a concerted effort to produce mediocrity despite the liklihood that Hick's replacement and Murphy's addition, let alone Park's, will improve the offensive production from three spots in the lineup. Immediately.

[USAFChief]

I'll be honest...I'm terrified Hicks goes on to be the next Bernie Williams.

 

I'm not joking.

[DaveW]

 

 

For the record, the OP has a point.

I've seen many claims here that Murphy can hopefully, someday, be "league average."

That, by definition, IS mediocrity.

Yup, and again, if we give up Arcia, Vargas or someone else (who someday may be "league average") I'm fine with it. But not Hicks, not a 5 tool type guy who is only going to get better and just turned a corner last year.

 

It sorta reminds me of when the Vikings wasted a high and valuable pick on Christian Ponder, it wasn't that Ponder was terrible at the time, it's just his upside was "well, maybe he can become Chad Pennington aka league average" it's thinking like that, that ultimately gets you decent seasons but no real chance at a championship.

[jimmer]

 

Yup, and again, if we give up Arcia, Vargas or someone else (who someday may be "league average") I'm fine with it. But not Hicks, not a 5 tool type guy who is only going to get better and just turned a corner last year.

 

It sorta reminds me of when the Vikings wasted a high and valuable pick on Christian Ponder, it wasn't that Ponder was terrible at the time, it's just his upside was "well, maybe he can become Chad Pennington aka league average" it's thinking like that, that ultimately gets you decent seasons but no real chance at a championship.

I get your point but *cough* Trent Dilfer *cough* ;-)

[DaveW]

 

 

Buxton being better at the plate in 2016 than Hicks might be doubtful, yes, but hardly as doubtful as DaveW's description of Hick's gold glove defense, 20 HR's and 20 SB's. Was that this year? :-)

Well, Hicks only played 97 games this year, so 20/20 would be quite the feet! However if you pro-rate his stats this year to a 520 PA year (not even a "full" season) he has 17 HR and 20SB. So if Hicks doesn't improve a lick (doubtful) he is already a 20/20 type guy

 

Also FWIW: From July on (250 at bats) Hicks had 10 HR, which puts him right at current 20/20 offensive already.

Any solid improvement he becomes a 25/25 type guy.

 

If you don't think Hicks has at least the very real potential for gold glove defense, I guess that's your opinion but it flies int he face with most every defensive stat and scout.

[USAFChief]

If he's only talking about Murphy, point conceded. There seems to be a bit more grandstanding than that though.

True.

 

But I'm disappointed in THIS case, about this trade, and the appearance to me of intentionally aiming low. And for me, at least, that's not a new phenomena.

 

Hopefully, Murphy surprises, and plays above his likely ceiling, because if he doesn't, I don't see how the Twins have done much to fix the catcher spot.

 

I will gladly retract if wrong.

[DaveW]

 

 

I get your point but *cough* Trent Dilfer *cough* ;-)

I know you are joking but its worth noting that Dilfer was the 6th pick in the draft and had a lot of "upside" coming out of college. (You don't get drafted that high from a small school without a lot of upside) Anyways, he ended up being league average, and yes he won a super bowl, but that had little to do with him as that defense was absolutely nasty!

 

Dilfer had a much higher ceiling then Ponder had (and a much higher floor as it turned out)

[DaveW]

 

 

I'll be honest...I'm terrified Hicks goes on to be the next Bernie Williams.

I'm not joking.

Yeah I was thinking that earlier actually. Though Williams was a really, really nice player, think of basically a Torii Hunter like career (but better, but not good enough to make the hall) players like that are pretty rare, but I could see it happening with Hicks. More likely he becomes Brett Gardner esque in terms of overall value (which again, is too much to give up)

[DaveW]

 

 

If he's only talking about Murphy, point conceded. There seems to be a bit more grandstanding than that though.

Well that's obviously the main topic that drove this thread, no?

 

I brought up several more examples as well:

Stauffer

Bartlett

Kubel

Santana (Jury prob still out)

Hughes

Nolasco

Hunter

 

A lot of guys that are league average (at best in most cases) and have no real upside to be impact players.

[jimmer]

 

I know you are joking but its worth noting that Dilfer was the 6th pick in the draft and had a lot of "upside" coming out of college. (You don't get drafted that high from a small school without a lot of upside) Anyways, he ended up being league average, and yes he won a super bowl, but that had little to do with him as that defense was absolutely nasty!

 

Dilfer had a much higher ceiling then Ponder had (and a much higher floor as it turned out)

Dilfer was like the text book definition of nothing special at the QB spot.  Not bad (due to minimizing mistakes), but not good.  Certainly not the guy you tell to win the game for you.

 

Anyway, this is off topic, so I should stop.

[bluechipper]

 

Snark all you want, but Hundley had an .807 OPS last year which was higher than EVERY SINGLE TWIN other than Sano last year. 50 points more than Dozier, 100 more than Hunter.

 

Hundley isn't great, and is close to the 12th best catcher then the 5th best.

I wonder what Murphy's OPS would have been if he were lucky enough to play in Colorado.

[DaveW]

 

I wonder what Murphy's OPS would have been if he were lucky enough to play in Colorado.

Beats me.

Feel free to pick another name from the other 10 catchers I tossed out as well.

 

Again, I think Hundley is closer to average then "good" anyways, I wouldn't be thrilled if the Twins went after Hundley as well since you are again "settling for mediocrity"

[DaveW]

 

 

Dilfer was like the text book definition of nothing special at the QB spot.  Not bad (due to minimizing mistakes), but not good.  Certainly not the guy you tell to win the game for you.

 

Anyway, this is off topic, so I should stop.

No I get what you are saying, Dilfer was nothing special in the NFL. But coming into the NFL he had "high upside" at the time by the scouts, he had just lead the NCAA in passing efficiency, had a "big arm", etc. He had upside at the time (most do when there was serious talk of him going #1), he didn't come close to his projected ceiling but then ended up being a middle of the road QB.

Ponder had a ceiling coming out of the draft that was "oh maybe he will be Chad Pennington/average at best"

 

Basically Hicks is to Dilfer and Ponder is to Murphy in this scenario.

 

Hicks has the much higher ceiling. Give me Dilfer's career over Ponder's any day.

 

And I don't see it as that far off topic, we are talking about high upside guys vs "maybe he will be average some day" guys.

 

 

It all goes back to "pitch to contact" safe pitchers versus: hard throwing, but a little more risk high upside pitchers that screwed this franchise for many years.

[drjim]

 

I'll be honest...I'm terrified Hicks goes on to be the next Bernie Williams.

I'm not joking.

 

That would be impressive. I'm not always into comparable age statistics, but here they are:

 

Age 23: Hicks .266 wOBA, 62 wRC, -0.6 WAR vs Williams .347 wOBA, 118 wRC, 2.0 WAR

Age 24: Hicks .291 wOBA, 83 wRC, 0.1 WAR vs Williams .327 wOBA, 99 wRC, 2.2 WAR

Age 25: Hicks .314 wOBA, 97 wRC, 1.5 WAR vs Williams .370 wOBA, 120 wRC, 3.3 WAR

 

That's a pretty big gap. If people are paranoid about guys we trade reaching their absolute top line comp and don't leave any space for guys acquired to have some upside, how can any trade look good? Do people expect Ryan to come in and wave a magic wand and pull off absurd trades in his favor?

 

This strikes me as a pretty fair trade and use of assets by both sides - just like most national guys said. Cameron is the acknowledged exception - which certainly highlights the scout/stat split on Murphy.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

This strikes me as a pretty fair trade and use of assets by both sides - just like most national guys said. Cameron is the acknowledged exception - which certainly highlights the scout/stat split on Murphy.

Cameron was far from the only one, as noted in other threads.

But I agree, Bernie Comp is sort of a best case scenario (which honestly COULD happen), but I think the Yankees end up seeing the better end of this deal 9 out of 10 times.

[drjim]

Cameron was far from the only one, as noted in other threads.

But I agree, Bernie Comp is sort of a best case scenario (which honestly COULD happen), but I think the Yankees end up seeing the better end of this deal 9 out of 10 times.

Cameron was the archetype of all that criticized it. It is a stats vs scouting split on Murphy that will determine the outcome. I'm pretty skeptical of drawing strong conclusions on 24 year old catchers.

 

I also think people are really overrating Hicks. 9 out of 10 seems strong.

[DaveW]

 

Cameron was the archtype of all that criticized it. It is a stats vs scouting split on Murphy that will determine the outcome. I'm pretty skeptical of drawing strong conclusions on 24 year old catchers.

 

I also think people are really overrating Hicks.  9 out of 10 seems strong.

Next 5 years, I'm wiling to say there is a 90% chance Hicks puts up a higher WAR then Murphy, 60% chance it's significantly higher (2+ a year difference) 10% chance Hicks becomes a 2-3 time all star type.

[bird]

 

True.

But I'm disappointed in THIS case, about this trade, and the appearance to me of intentionally aiming low. And for me, at least, that's not a new phenomena.

Hopefully, Murphy surprises, and plays above his likely ceiling, because if he doesn't, I don't see how the Twins have done much to fix the catcher spot.

I will gladly retract if wrong.

 

I too was hoping they'd land a bigger fish, and was expecting we'd be parting with a more valuable player than Hicks (Plouffe?). I get the Bernie Williams fear but have no strong opinion about that. I have to assume that those experts analyzing the deal are in the range, and we're not seeing opinions about a lopsided deal. Because of that, and the whole addition by subtraction thing of Suzuki taking a seat on the bench more regularly, I'm OK with it. I'm assuming Murphy is a measurable upgrade over Suzuki. I'm assuming Hicks is replaceable at no real additional cost by someone (Buxton?) with similar or better defensive and offensive performance. I'm assuming Hicks continues his struggles from the left side. Maybe those are big assumptions, but I like it that we still have Kepler and Berrios and Plouffe and our first round draft choice, and I also assume one or more of those were going  bye-bye if we landed Lucroy or Norris or Wieters, all of whom have their own warts to go along with the added costs.

 

So, we can "over-value" Hicks, "under-value" Murphy, or think one of the big fish is so much better as to warrant a vastly steeper price. If Ryan felt the same and then STILL pulled the trigger on this deal, well THEN I'll agree he intentionally aimed low. 

 

As for the past "aim low" phenomena, remember that guys like me honestly believe there's a time to aim high and a time to aim "lower". I concede Ryan's risk-averse nature as a flaw. But as you know from reading what I've written in the past, I believe we're finally at a point in the cycle where the GM is within a half-season or so of facing that "one last piece" moment. This offseason had the shortest to-do list for the Twin's GM that I can remember in maybe four decades, so we're close and he didn't part with anyone who gets us even closer, yet upgraded two positions with this one trade in my view. It might not be this offseason, but I think he's going to eventually surprise us. In the meantime, he's making the task a lot harder for the likes of Detroit and Chicago.

[drjim]

Next 5 years, I'm wiling to say there is a 90% chance Hicks puts up a higher WAR then Murphy, 60% chance it's significantly higher (2+ a year difference) 10% chance Hicks becomes a 2-3 time all star type.

I would think Murphy sits at about a 2-2.5 WAR player. I think that is about where Hicks sits too. I would bet on higher WAR for Hicks mostly because catchers are bigger risks. But if Hicks was in a corner, which he would be opening day for the Twins, obviously his WAR would be lower.

 

I would buy that there is a higher likelihood Hicks becames a multiple all star type, but I think that is a very small chance.

 

I would even turn it around and say that because of positional scarcity there is a better chance that Murphy makes one all star team than Hicks (but a better chance Hicks is a multiple all star).