Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 5: (16-20)

[jsteve96]

Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, jay, Gordon, polanco, gonsalves, walker, Thorpe, Stewart, Meyer, Burdi, chargois, Jorge, Rogers, Blankenhorn, Palacios,Garver,Wade, Javier, Romero, Turner, Harrison, Vielma, minier, Sledgers, Michael, English, Melotakis, Reed, Gibbons, eades, jones,Peterson, Wells, Arias, Diaz, navarreto,batts, goodrum.... That's my top 40

[ashbury]

batts

Unless yours is a top-40 of journalism prospects, you might want to remove this name.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17937-mat-batts-2015/?p=414994

[Thrylos]

 

Baseball America Low-A Best Tools 2015
Best defensive catcher - Brian Navarreto Cedar Rapids (Twins)
Seth is not by himself on this.

 

Pretty sure that Mike Berardino had not seen Rainis Silva play before he wrote this

 

Wonder whether he will change that this off-season.

Edited October 24, 2015 by Thrylos

[jsteve96]

Wow that sucks

[Thrylos]

 

At some point he will be.

 

That's what I don't get:

Why would a top international signee will not be in some top 10 lists, while an equally unproven 1st round pick almost always breaks the top-10 in the same lists?

 

Bias?  Must be.  I'd love an alternative explanation, if we are talking about tools and potential...

 

Javier has a much higher potential than Gordon (and actually might even be a better player than him now,) for example...

 

Edited October 24, 2015 by Thrylos

[Seth Stohs]

 

That's what I don't get:

Why would a top international signee will not be in some top 10 lists, while an equally unproven 1st round pick almost always breaks the top-10 in the same lists?

 

Bias?  Must be.  I'd love an alternative explanation, if we are talking about tools and potential...

 

Javier has a much higher potential than Gordon (and actually might even be a better player than him now,) for example...

 

I know one thing... it's not a bias.

 

As I've said previously, whether it's in this thread or one of the previous ones, I typically don't rank players until they play in the GCL. I think that international signings are always very interesting. I certainly think that Javier has a big upside based on reports. I've seen minimal video. I don't know the level of competition he's playing against. I'd like to see him put up numbers in the States before making too strong of a case for him. If he comes to the States next spring - my guess is he won't go to minor league camp but will go to the DSL and then over to the GCL when that season starts - he could jump into the Top 10 easily, especially with graduations next spring. 

 

As for Gordon vs Javier... it wouldn't even be fair for me to comment on that. I think Gordon's upside is really high, and I've seen him... it's not really even fair to compare the two at this time. Just so much different. 

[Seth Stohs]

A reminder... here's a thread set up for your prospect lists (or links to your prospect lists). 

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20532-post-your-prospect-lists-here/ 

[Thrylos]

 

I know one thing... it's not a bias.

 

As I've said previously, whether it's in this thread or one of the previous ones, I typically don't rank players until they play in the GCL. I think that international signings are always very interesting. I certainly think that Javier has a big upside based on reports. I've seen minimal video. I don't know the level of competition he's playing against. I'd like to see him put up numbers in the States before making too strong of a case for him. If he comes to the States next spring - my guess is he won't go to minor league camp but will go to the DSL and then over to the GCL when that season starts - he could jump into the Top 10 easily, especially with graduations next spring. 

 

As for Gordon vs Javier... it wouldn't even be fair for me to comment on that. I think Gordon's upside is really high, and I've seen him... it's not really even fair to compare the two at this time. Just so much different. 

 

 

I am not talking about your lists Seth

 

I get your point and the restrictions you are working with (like GCL only and if they qualify for Rookie status in 2016, they qualify for your list.)  

 

I am talking about the "pros".  BA and MLB.com (even ESPN) do have people who have seen players from Latin America play and I am sure that they would have a better way of creating lists vs. what they are doing now, which is outsourcing to local writers (who have not seen people who have not made it to the US play.)   Would it hurt to spend some time and have a round table of those folks in making those lists?

[dgwills]

 

Not to minimize these prospect lists, from is an mlb.com write-up on one of my ex-HS-players who was a top candidate for NL ROY:

"Here's a look at the current candidates for NL Rookie of the Year Award, in the order I'd vote them at the moment:

1. Matt Duffy, 3B, Giants
.307 AVG, .345 OBP, .465 SLG, 129 OPS+, 9 HR, 20 2B, 5 3B, 51 RBI, 5 SB, 3.8 WAR (per Baseball Reference)

In an age of prospect prominence, at a time when guys are household names or even plastered on billboards before they set foot in the big leagues, it's refreshing when we're legitimately caught off guard"

I had him in my fantasy baseball league for most of the year. The best thing about him was how consistent he was. Even most elite players have prolonged slumps. Not Duffy. He helped me win the league.

[jsteve96]

i knew Nicky G had a good second half but didn't realize he had .763 OPS over that time.. thats why his upside has him at his rankings. also happy 20th Bday Nick

[SarasotaBill]

Comparing (ranking) two prospects, I believe the best method is which player would you be willing to trade.

 

Javier vs Turner 

 

Javier vs Navaretto

 

It's not close. Obviously the Twins think very highly to use their whole int'l pool on him.

[DJL44]

"it's not really even fair to compare the two at this time"

 

And yet to create a prospect list you have to compare them. It isn't really fair to compare Aumarys Minier to Max Kepler either.

[Seth Stohs]

 

"it's not really even fair to compare the two at this time"

 

And yet to create a prospect list you have to compare them. It isn't really fair to compare Aumarys Minier to Max Kepler either.

 

Fair enough. I think my point was mainly just amount of information we know on them at this time. But again, that could be said for any minor leaguers being compared.

[blairpaul715]

 

At some point he will be.

Its not a mistake of yours ,if you place him 5th or 55th on your prospect list or I do on mine, its the mistake of the Twins if he doesnt make it after signing him for $5M.

[Shane Wahl]

Didn't catch this earlier, but Felix Jorge turns 22 next January.

[sane]

Comparing (ranking) two prospects, I believe the best method is which player would you be willing to trade.

That would be emphasizing organizational needs/strengths ahead of the individual player's skills and projected skills.

IMO ranking prospects should be just that...RANKING PROSPECTS!

[sane]

It's the mistake of the Twins if he doesn't make it after signing him for $5M.

Incorrectly predicting the future is not a "mistake".

We are talking about a totally inexact science. (wild-ass guess?)

IMO a mistake is when you do something which someone already knows will fail.

In signing prospects, nobody KNOWS anything.

[ashbury]

Comparing (ranking) two prospects, I believe the best method is which player would you be willing to trade.

That would be emphasizing organizational needs/strengths ahead of the individual player's skills and projected skills.

IMO ranking prospects should be just that...RANKING PROSPECTS!

All tautologies are tautologies.^*

 

Point well-taken that organizational strength shouldn't creep in. Still, hypothetical trading seems like a good starting point. How about, which player would return more in a trade with an average GM? That's my baseline guess, modified only if I think a player is severely under- or over-rated generally.

 

^* Source: link