Opening Day 25 man roster

[jokin]

 

You make the ground rules.

I, personally would be more interested in the projected 25- or 40-man rosters, ignoring any "imaginary" trade and acquisitions.

Kinda like reality.

 

Killjoy. 

 

Reality is, there will be changes... could be a few, could be a lot.   At least a couple are going to be traded (We all know the top two higher-priced guys that will/should be on the block starting on October 5)... and Terry's going to listen on a few more to either fill the obvious holes or achieve payroll rebalancing or create roster spaces. A big decision is coming on Hunter and the other FAs.  There are also probably 5 or more names that we can all quickly come up with that are prime non-tender or DFA candidates.

[jokin]

 

So because he's not quite as good as two of the top SS in the game he can't be a starting SS on a contending team? What backs up this claim other than the belief he'll just regress far below the above average SS he currently is? Why does this myth about him lacking arm continue? He has plenty of arm, where does this come from? His lack of range is also severely exaggerated.

 

Escobar's trajectory to the majors is the only evidence that provides doubt about him continuing his current level of play, and that still may bear out to be true. But for now, I'm totally fine with him being the SS on what should be a competitive team next season.

 

Oh, he can be a starting SS on a contending team, it just puts that contending team in a bigger hole against other contending teams.  I love EE, he's just not anywhere near the elite group of SS, defensively, exaggerating his liabilities, or not.  If the Twins can seize the opportunity to upgrade to Desmond, they should, and we would suddenly have a more realistic chance to BE that "contending team".

[Hrbowski]

 

That would probably take Dozier, Kepler, Gonsalves/Stewart to get Plawecki and Matz.

Mets easily win that trade.

[bluechipper]

 

Mets easily win that trade.

Maybe, but that's trading from strength to fill weaknesses for the Twins. Don't you think that's about what it would take for the Mets to hypothetically make that trade?

[Vanimal46]

That would probably take Dozier, Kepler, Gonsalves/Stewart to get Plawecki and Matz.

If it's either Gonsalves or Stewart as the 3rd piece in the trade, it's probably close to the price. Who knows... If they get close to a WS berth and lose Murphy in FA, they'd be a pretty good fit for a trade.

[Hrbowski]

 

Maybe, but that's trading from strength to fill weaknesses for the Twins. Don't you think that's about what it would take for the Mets to hypothetically make that trade?

No.

[jorgenswest]

Arcia had a bad year. The hip injury led to poor mechanics. It can be fixed. They need to have a plan that allows for him to have a role on the team. They need his left handed home run bat.

 

Santana will be valuable in a Bonifacio type utility role.

 

They can give Kepler AAA seasoning into June and get an additional year of control.

 

They can reduce Berios' innings by starting him in AAA and giving him light work the first month. They are better off having his innings at the end of the year and they will get an additional year of control with the move.

 

They need to find someone who will get a larger share of the catching role. They do not need Suzuki's contract to vest. I hoped that would be Pinto, but they may need to look outside the organization.

 

I would not re-sign Hunter with his 88 OPS+ and below average defense in RF. I don't think he can lead from the bench. 

[SwainZag]

The more I look at the Shields, the more I question why we would want the Twins to trade for him, even with including Nolasco's contract.

 

Shields turns 34 this upcoming offseason, is owed $21M per season for the next 3 years.  Obviously the guy is a workhorse, this being the 9th straight year of tossing 200+ innings.  Should that be a cause for concern?  That's a lot of mileage on an arm.

 

While 2015 could have been a down year for him, there are some concerns.  His BB/9 was double the year before and 150% higher than his career average while his HR/9 was the highest it's been in 6 years, while he leads the league in giving up HR with 33.  This all coming with a switch of leagues from the AL to the NL and pitching in one of the more pitching friendly parks in the MLB.  His FIP of 4.46 is a career high.  The good news is his velocity is still right around his career average and his K/9 was a career high this year.

 

Kyle Gibson on the other, while no spring chicken, will finish just his 2nd full season in the bigs.  While not the most consistent guy, he improved for the 2nd straight year.  His K/9 has gone from 5.1 to 5.4 and now to 6.7 this year.  His control gets him in trouble sometimes, but he looks to a guy getting better, opposed to aging and while already having TJ surgery, has a whole lot less mileage on his arm than Shields.  He isn't even eligible for arbitration until 2017.  

 

I understand in the trade scenario listed that Nolasco and his $12M for the next 2 years goes, but I would take Gibson + $8M over the next 2 seasons and $21M in 2018 minus Gibby's arbitration number to vastly out produce Shields in the 3 year time span.

 

Just my 2 cents on the Shields trade scenario.  

[DaveW]

 

Are you really sure that you want Wieters? I would prefer finding a way to get a promising catcher 26 and under. Wieters seems close to becoming Mauered at first base. And the bat is potentially in decline. And he is a significant injury risk.

Wieters isn't perfect, but he is worth the risk on a 2-3 year deal IMO. I would love some young promising catcher, I just don't see the scenario we get one without parting with a Kepler or Berrios type (Which i am very opposed to)

[DaveW]

 

 

Mets easily win that trade.

I think you are over-rating the Twins pieces in that trade quite a bit. Matz likely goes into 2016 as a top ten overall prospect, he has "ACE" type stuff and the ability to stick as a front end rotation guy, Plawecki has athe potential to be a a very good catcher.

 

Either way, the Mets aren't going to give up those two guys for that package anyways. I would trade Dozier+Stewart for Matz  in a heartbeat. I like Dozier, but Matz has the ability to be an ace type for a long time.

[DaveW]

 

 

The more I look at the Shields, the more I question why we would want the Twins to trade for him, even with including Nolasco's contract.

 

Shields turns 34 this upcoming offseason, is owed $21M per season for the next 3 years.  Obviously the guy is a workhorse, this being the 9th straight year of tossing 200+ innings.  Should that be a cause for concern?  That's a lot of mileage on an arm.

 

While 2015 could have been a down year for him, there are some concerns.  His BB/9 was double the year before and 150% higher than his career average while his HR/9 was the highest it's been in 6 years, while he leads the league in giving up HR with 33.  This all coming with a switch of leagues from the AL to the NL and pitching in one of the more pitching friendly parks in the MLB.  His FIP of 4.46 is a career high.  The good news is his velocity is still right around his career average and his K/9 was a career high this year.

 

Kyle Gibson on the other, while no spring chicken, will finish just his 2nd full season in the bigs.  While not the most consistent guy, he improved for the 2nd straight year.  His K/9 has gone from 5.1 to 5.4 and now to 6.7 this year.  His control gets him in trouble sometimes, but he looks to a guy getting better, opposed to aging and while already having TJ surgery, has a whole lot less mileage on his arm than Shields.  He isn't even eligible for arbitration until 2017.  

 

I understand in the trade scenario listed that Nolasco and his $12M for the next 2 years goes, but I would take Gibson + $8M over the next 2 seasons and $21M in 2018 minus Gibby's arbitration number to vastly out produce Shields in the 3 year time span.

 

Just my 2 cents on the Shields trade scenario.  

Yeah, thats a totally fair assesment if you think he doesn't "get back to normal" which honestly none of us know at this point but is definitely a risk.

My scenario laid out was assuming/hoping/praying to the baby jesus (mauer) that he would turn back into the 3.15 ERA/220 IP type for the next couple years.

Yeah its more money then what we owe Gibson+Nolasco, but I think at the very very very least Shields Matches GIbson moving forward and Nolasco really has no place on this 25 man roster moving forward to be honest, not with Berrios, Duffey, May all deserving shots in the rotation.

[SwainZag]

 

Yeah, thats a totally fair assesment if you think he doesn't "get back to normal" which honestly none of us know at this point but is definitely a risk.

My scenario laid out was assuming/hoping/praying to the baby jesus (mauer) that he would turn back into the 3.15 ERA/220 IP type for the next couple years.

Yeah its more money then what we owe Gibson+Nolasco, but I think at the very very very least Shields Matches GIbson moving forward and Nolasco really has no place on this 25 man roster moving forward to be honest, not with Berrios, Duffey, May all deserving shots in the rotation.

 

Yeah, that's really the selling the point, does he rebound to career norms?  I guess I am just skeptical of the switching leagues, bigger park and worse numbers entering his mid 30's.  I can only imagine if he bounces back and the Padres aren't in contention we might be talking about this towards the deadline next year as well.....if he isn't moved this offseason.

[jokin]

 

Arcia had a bad year. The hip injury led to poor mechanics. It can be fixed. They need to have a plan that allows for him to have a role on the team. They need his left handed home run bat.

 

Santana will be valuable in a Bonifacio type utility role.

 

They can give Kepler AAA seasoning into June and get an additional year of control.

 

They can reduce Berios' innings by starting him in AAA and giving him light work the first month. They are better off having his innings at the end of the year and they will get an additional year of control with the move.

 

They need to find someone who will get a larger share of the catching role. They do not need Suzuki's contract to vest. I hoped that would be Pinto, but they may need to look outside the organization.

 

I would not re-sign Hunter with his 88 OPS+ and below average defense in RF. I don't think he can lead from the bench. 

 

All good points. But I think they HAVE TO- not "may need to"-  look outside the organization for a catcher. Turner's likely not ready until 2017, if then, and there's obviously not much to get excited about  among any of the alternatives.  And to your point, to avoid compounding the problem into 2017 the Twins simply cannot let the Suzuki contract vest.  As of this season, the Twins are paying more for their rostered catchers than the Angels, Astros, Nationals, Red Sox, Rangers.... plus the freaking Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

Unfortunately, I think the Twins marketing department has the first post-season press conference announcement about Torii's re-signing already baked into the cake and well on its way to the season ticket holders.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Oh, he can be a starting SS on a contending team, it just puts that contending team in a bigger hole against other contending teams.  I love EE, he's just not anywhere near the elite group of SS, defensively, exaggerating his liabilities, or not.  If the Twins can seize the opportunity to upgrade to Desmond, they should, and we would suddenly have a more realistic chance to BE that "contending team".

Can't that be said about any position where the other team has a superior player? I'm not sure the last WS team I've seen that  have superior personnel at every position, or  is "elite" all the way through.

 

All Escobar has to do is outplay his opposition on any given day, which he's proven to do quite regularly this year and last. I don't see how he puts the Twins at such an obvious disadvantage, it doesn't add up. 

[sane]

 

Killjoy. 

 

Reality is, there will be changes... could be a few, could be a lot.   At least a couple are going to be traded (We all know the top two higher-priced guys that will/should be on the block starting on October 5)... and Terry's going to listen on a few more to either fill the obvious holes or achieve payroll rebalancing or create roster spaces. A big decision is coming on Hunter and the other FAs.  There are also probably 5 or more names that we can all quickly come up with that are prime non-tender or DFA candidates.

Non-tenders, DFA's and FA's make up a finite number of known names to talk about.

Potential trades make up a very large number of possibilities (or IM-possibilities if one of the two "potentially interested teams" is NOT interested).

No probem. I just have difficulty dealing with a large # of unlikely hypotheticals.

[DaveW]

Can't that be said about any position where the other team has a superior player? I'm not sure the last WS team I've seen that have superior personnel at every position, or is "elite" all the way through.

 

All Escobar has to do is outplay his opposition on any given day, which he's proven to do quite regularly this year and last. I don't see how he puts the Twins at such an obvious disadvantage, it doesn't add up.

Yeah, SS, 2B, 3B, closer, back end rotation and LF/CF I am not worried about at all for 2016. At least at this point, I wouldn't try to upgrade any of them until: bullpen, catcher, front end starter? Are addressed.

[DocBauer]

FWIW.....IMHO....trade or FA the team needs a pair of quality relievers, one from each side, and I think a quality veteran LH bench bat. 

 

This is in addition to making some sort of move/decision at catcher.

 

Broken record time; Nolasco really needs to be moved somehow. The Twins will probably have to eat half the remaining 2 years and include someone else in any deal. Said deal could be for a reliever, or a prospect. But moving him is more about clearing roster space and some money than necessarily being part of a major deal. 

 

Plouffe might be the most valuable trade chip the team has in making a deal for a young catcher, but I don't believe he's the only one. I can see scenarios involving Arcia, Polanco and other pitchers and players in the system. I can also see the team making a move for a veteran to join Zuke, very possibly and probably AJ. While the team needs to add youth at catcher, going the veteran route for a year isn't all bad. You have experience, potentially a better offensive situation (possible platoon even) and another year to see if the young catchers in your system really are quality prospects or not.

 

I just don't see blockbusters being involved. 

[jorgenswest]

It might be best to simply release Nolasco. The cost of trading him may be greater either in prospect or a decline phase veteran contract that is a bigger liability.

[jokin]

 

Can't that be said about any position where the other team has a superior player? I'm not sure the last WS team I've seen that  have superior personnel at every position, or  is "elite" all the way through.

 

All Escobar has to do is outplay his opposition on any given day, which he's proven to do quite regularly this year and last. I don't see how he puts the Twins at such an obvious disadvantage, it doesn't add up. 

 

Superior personnel at #1/#2 Starting Pitcher and Shortstop are the most important spots for post-season success, and are 2 of the 3 obvious areas that are currently holding the team back- [they're severely lacking in all 3 of the spots stated, plus catcher]- from being considered a legitimate WS contender.

 

Through today's game, EE's wRC+ for both one-year and two-year time spans is 102 (that's 10th best among SS this season), which is pretty good at the position.  But is there anyone that follows baseball that says his glove is top ten at the position?  IMO, pretty good isn't good enough if they're going to make a run, because we know there isn't a Johan/Liriano duo waiting in the wings and ready to debut for this club in 2016.  

 

Also IMHO, the Twins would be far better off in 2016 and going forward to '17, by:

 

1) giving Dozier more days off in the first half of the season to hopefully keep him productive for 162 games, not 85 games;

2) splitting Sano's time between 3rd and DH;

3) signing Ian Desmond at SS and;

4) giving Escobar regular reps at 2nd, SS and 3rd, which seems to be what he was born to do.

[DaveW]

I wouldn't mind Desmond, but I don't think there is any chance whatsoever the Twins sign him

[jokin]

 

It might be best to simply release Nolasco. The cost of trading him may be greater either in prospect or a decline phase veteran contract that is a bigger liability.

 

Hard to imagine who in baseball would be a bigger liability than Nolasco.  At least with Shields you'd have a guy who, even in decline phase, wouldn't have one phantom? injury after another, actually gave a damn about his team, and represented true veteran leadership to a pitching staff looking to make a run in the post-season.

[jokin]

 

I wouldn't mind Desmond, but I don't think there is any chance whatsoever the Twins sign him

 

Probably right, but there's still no excuse that the MN Twins have the 23rd lowest payroll in baseball.***  

 

Remember in 2012 when everyone was saying that signing any big FAs had to wait until the table was set with the next wave?  Well, dinner is served, Terry! Time to move that payroll up to the median range of $125-$135M.

 

 

***http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

[jokin]

 

FWIW.....IMHO....trade or FA the team needs a pair of quality relievers, one from each side, and I think a quality veteran LH bench bat. 

 

 

 

As i noted upthread, Tommy Hunter and Neftali Feliz. Flamethrowers, need some Neal Allen TLC coach-whisperer adjustments.  Hunter's velo has actually steadily risen throughout his career (96.4), Feliz's has been stable over 4 seasons (~95). Should be available at slightly above TR bargain special rates.  If one or both of these two pan out, Perkins (I think his days as the full-time closer are in jeopardy) and Taylor Rogers can be the hi-lev LHRPs, add O'Rourke as your LOOGY... Darnell and Dean waiting in the wings.

 

LH bench bat?  Would Thome consider coming out of retirement?

[DocBauer]

 

Probably right, but there's still no excuse that the MN Twins have the 23rd lowest payroll in baseball.***  

 

Remember in 2012 when everyone was saying that signing any big FAs had to wait until the table was set with the next wave?  Well, dinner is served, Terry! Time to move that payroll up to the median range of $125-$135M.

 

 

***http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

Absolutely agree. But to me, this doesn't mean keeping the Nolasco's of the world, or signing more of them, or taking on a huge contract in trade where the player has no value at the end of the deal "just because we can afford to." 

 

EX: A..what appears to be...declining Shields or injured and over 30 Tulo and parting with prospects to get a year or two of quality play and then eating the remainder of their contracts. I'd rather the raise in payroll come from keeping our own talent, and FA or trade, acquiring under 30 or just turned 30 yo talent, as well as those yearly "fillers" for the bench or a bullpen spot. 

 

I do think Ryan gets too conservative/careful at times. But I also don't want to see the Twins suddenly become the Mariners or Angels where I have multiple big contracts on the books for players I frankly don't want any longer.

 

 

 

[DocBauer]

 

 

 

LH bat?  Would Thome consider coming out of retirement?

No question that someone like him would be perfect.

 

In fact, the perfect candidate might already be on the roster. Mauer, an over 30 LH professional hitter with a good eye and good OB and some XB power who can still play the field a bit would be perfect. Now, of course, we're not going to pay/play Mauer at this point to be a bench bat. But he's a good example.

 

I'm just not sure right now who's going to be available for that role on the market.

[jokin]

 

EX: A..what appears to be...declining Shields or injured and over 30 Tulo and parting with prospects to get a year or two of quality play and then eating the remainder of their contracts. I'd rather the raise in payroll come from keeping our own talent, and FA or trade, acquiring under 30 or just turned 30 yo talent

 

Ian Desmond fits your criteria perfectly.

[jokin]

 

No question that someone like him would be perfect.

 

In fact, the perfect candidate might already be on the roster. Mauer, an over 30 LH professional hitter with a good eye and good OB and some XB power who can still play the field a bit would be perfect. Now, of course, we're not going to pay/play Mauer at this point to be a bench bat. But he's a good example.

 

I'm just not sure right now who's going to be available for that role on the market.

 

Justin Morneau?  The Rockies seem to be in housecleaning mode and could easily decline his option and let him walk.

[DocBauer]

Key here is, obviously, OPENING DAY roster, and not what any of us think it will be a month or so in. LOL

 

Names of some are a little hard to plan at this point, not until the season is over and FA and trade rumors begin.

 

OF: Rosario, Buxton and Hicks. I think Buxton takes this season's experience and builds on it to warrant breaking with the club next year, even if he is still learning on the job. 

 

4th OF is a veteran LH bat yet TBD. I just don't know that Arcia could fit the role of part-time OF/PH/DH. If he could, that would be an obvious in house choice.

 

INF: Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Sano and Nunez. Plouffe will also play 1B with Sano at 3B. You could do a lot worse than Nunez as your utility infielder with a decent bat and decent speed.

 

C: Suzuki and I still don't know. But to be honest, I'm really, really leaning the FA route for a year and AJ. I think we have a nice veteran duo there.

 

SP: Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone, May or Duffey (until Berrios comes up and Milone moves to the bullpen.

 

RP: Jepsen, May or Duffey, TBD, Pressly, Perkins, TBDLH, O'Rourke as probably winner of LH audition.

[DocBauer]

 

Justin Morneau?  The Rockies seem to be in housecleaning mode and could easily decline his option and let him walk.

And I have thought about him. He could be perfect for the role! And, like Hunter, it would be a great story.

 

He has the further benefit of being a primary DH possibility if he comes back around fully and the Twins DO trade Plouffe.

[mikelink45]

No to Shields and Wieters.  Shields is not that good when we have young arms that can be better and I cannot see Wieters signing here, even though I would love it.  I just cannot see TR making any big moves.  Getting rid of Nolasco would be my first priority but I would not sacrifice future talent to do it. 

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Duffey

Berrios

 

In the pen

Nolasco

May

Perkins

Tonkin

Milone (may start before Berrios if the Twins do their normal wait)

Ryan

Jepsen (he did so well I see them thinking that they are okay)

 

Hicks

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Plouffe

Rosario

Santana

Suzuki

Buxton

 

Alex Avila (FA)

Vargas

Santana

Robinson

 

Kepler up later and bull pen will turn over from minor league additions through the summer and the inevitable injuries.