Must Read Reusse: Mauer Contributions

[laloesch]

 

I think you're confusing Joe Mauer with Richard Simmons. You do know he was recruited by Division I programs in three sports out of high school?

 

I think you've watched too many of his video's and you know him personally

[SwainZag]

 

OBP is not the be all end all and Mauer is NOT BY FAR the best hitter on this team.  Plouffe, Rosario and Dozier ALL have more multi-hit games than Mauer.  Your statement is a gross mischaracterization.  His OBP is heavily watered down by the fact that he walks more often than he gets hits.  For a #3 hitter he should be DRIVING the ball in NOT standing like a statue in the batters box praying for walks before striking out or hitting weakly into double plays. 

 

OH and by the way the Mauer critics are not expecting 2009 numbers from him just the pre 2009 numbers where he hit in the high .290's - low .300's and had 80-90 rbi.  That's what he should be doing along with actually training in the offseason.

 

It would help if you actually read my post.  I said.....He is by far the best Twins hitter with runners in scoring position this year, which is 100% true.  I could post stats backing it up, but you can look it up if you really like.

 

How if you OBP heavily watered down?  It's a static number based on hits and walks.  I think everyone on the planet knows Joe isn't a prototypical 3rd hitter.  In a perfect world he would hit 2nd, but with the Twins lacking anything in the middle of the order outside Sano, it has to do for now.

 

In your own post you said "with his eye at the plate he should be hitting .295+, 20+ hrs., 80+ rbi's, and .400 + OBP at 23 million a year.MINIMUM."  He has done that one time in his career, in 2009 when he won the MVP.  And you want that minimum.  It's not going to happen.

[DaveW]

I'm not sure how anyone in 2015 can knock a guy for taking walks. Especially when said guy is taking walks right in front of Sano.

[DaveW]

Ideally Mauer would be hitting 2 next year with Sano batting 3rd. (Dozier or Vargas batting 4th to give him some protection).

 

You want Sano to come to bat in the first inning of every single game IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Your statement is a gross mischaracterization.  His OBP is heavily watered down by the fact that he walks more often than he gets hits.

I'm just going to isolate these two sentences from the rest of the post so everyone can bask in the glorious irony.

[USAFChief]

I'm just going to isolate these two sentences from the rest of the post so everyone can bask in the glorious irony.

His point is valid, if poorly worded.

 

Getting on base is good, but not all OBP is created equally. Getting on base via a hit is more valuable than getting on base via a walk. Getting an extra base hit is more valuable than getting a single.

 

These are not controversial ideas.

[jimmer]

'Your statement is a gross mischaracterization.His OBP is heavily watered down by the fact that he walks more often than he gets hits.'

 

146 hits, 62 walks.

 

Seems he gets hits way more than he walks unless I'm reading the stat line incorrectly. I'm not sure 'fact' means what someone thinks it means.

 

[ken]

 

I'm just going to isolate these two sentences from the rest of the post so everyone can bask in the glorious irony.

His wOBA is watered down by the walks (and lack of power).  His OBP is .339 and his wOBA is .309 and according to Fan Graphs his wOBP is below average.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I know it's coming up on 2016 and Mauer of today is a different player, but this still gives me chills. Gardner's run would have ended the game. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfeJMiuKbf4

[DaveW]

 

I know it's coming up on 2016 and Mauer of today is a different player, but this still gives me chills. Gardner's run would have ended the game. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfeJMiuKbf4

I was at that game like 20 rows behind the plate, freaking amazing all around.

 

What is Mauer's on base streak up to? Getting pretty impressive even to the Mauer haters at this point, no?

 

[SwainZag]

 

I was at that game like 20 rows behind the plate, freaking amazing all around.

 

What is Mauer's on base streak up to? Getting pretty impressive even to the Mauer haters at this point, no?

 

He is at 41.  If he gets on tonight he will tie Bob Allison's team record at 42.....which he set in 1961.  Pretty long stand record.  Mauer is about the only Twin to hit Kluber this season, let's hope it continues.

[Willihammer]

Yeah Mauer broke up Kluber's no hit bid back in August IIRC.

edit: in the 9th.

[Willihammer]

Aaaand we're tied at 42 games with Bob Allison.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Aaaand we're tied at 42 games with Bob Allison.

 

I was pretty surprised at his overall numbers during this stretch.  They are not nearly as impressive as I thought they would be.  

 

.275 average, .771 OPS.  3 HR.  11 2B.   13.5% BB rate is driving the streak really.  

 

Of the guys I looked up, Sano (.985) and Rosario (.773) were higher during this stretch.  Escobar not too far back (.754)

[Otto von Ballpark]

For reference, I looked up Bob Allison's 1961 streak (July 16 - August 29).  .281/.411/.555, .966 OPS, better than any of Allison's full season OPS figures, roughly translating to a 150 OPS+ with the Met Stadium park factors that year.

 

Mauer's .771 OPS is his current streak would be about a 106 OPS+.

 

I don't have a B-Ref play index subscription, but it would be interesting to compare Mauer's streak performance to others.

[tobi0040]

 

For reference, I looked up Bob Allison's 1961 streak (July 16 - August 29).  .281/.411/.555, .966 OPS, better than any of Allison's full season OPS figures, roughly translating to a 150 OPS+ with the Met Stadium park factors that year.

 

Mauer's .771 OPS is his current streak would be about a 106 OPS+.

 

I don't have a B-Ref play index subscription, but it would be interesting to compare Mauer's streak performance to others.

 

This is just a Cardinals list....but the most relevant time wise are:

 

Edmonds  1.290 OPS  (47 games)

Holladay    .872 OPS    (45 games)

Pujols       1.152 OPS (48 games)

 

http://thecardinalnationblog.com/2015/05/27/holliday-joins-new-top-10-on-base-list/

 

Vince Coleman was an outlier at .781.  But the others were much better.

 

 

[SwainZag]

 

I was pretty surprised at his overall numbers during this stretch.  They are not nearly as impressive as I thought they would be.  

 

.275 average, .771 OPS.  3 HR.  11 2B.   13.5% BB rate is driving the streak really.  

 

Of the guys I looked up, Sano (.985) and Rosario (.773) were higher during this stretch.  Escobar not too far back (.754)

 

What's his OBP over that stretch? I would imagine it's around .400 or so?  I don't know why everyone is surprised the OPS isn't higher, Joe hasn't increased his power numbers during the streak.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What's his OBP over that stretch? I would imagine it's around .400 or so?  I don't know why everyone is surprised the OPS isn't higher, Joe hasn't increased his power numbers during the streak.

His OBP is .371 during the streak.  His OPS during the streak is about the same as Dozier's season OPS, which so far translates to a 106 OPS+.  A 114 wRC+ during the streak according to Fangraphs, which is still less than his preseason overall ZiPS projection of 117.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's a breakdown of his total hits + walks per game during the 42 game streak:

 

1: 20 (48%)

2: 17 (40%)

3: 5 (12%)

 

Here a breakdown of his total plate appearances per game during the 42 game streak:

 

5: 19 (45%)

4: 22 (52%)

3: 1 (2%)

[tobi0040]

 

What's his OBP over that stretch? I would imagine it's around .400 or so?  I don't know why everyone is surprised the OPS isn't higher, Joe hasn't increased his power numbers during the streak.

 

What this tells me is that being on base 37% of the time, that this streak is more about equally spreading out his hits and walks in a manner to keep this streak alive, vs. a real hot streak.  Most of the time streaks like this are primarily a hot streak with some luck sprinkled in.   In fact, he has gone hit less 11 times.

[Parker Hageman]

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/647245161508933632

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mauer's wRC+ during his streak is now 111.

 

Just for comparison, in 2014 between the exact same calendar dates, his wRC+ was 128 (due to a higher walk rate and BABIP), he just had the misfortune a sprinkling a couple Oh-fors in there.  That was the "hot streak" (still below his pre-2014 career wRC+, though) that encouraged people about him going into 2015.

 

His current run is definitely more of a statistical anomaly rather than a hot streak.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What this tells me is that being on base 37% of the time, that this streak is more about equally spreading out his hits and walks in a manner to keep this streak alive, vs. a real hot streak.  Most of the time streaks like this are primarily a hot streak with some luck sprinkled in.   In fact, he has gone hit less 11 times.

Yep. Joe is, in a sense, getting very lucky. He's not performing much better than his 2015 line but has managed to reach base in 40+ consecutive games.