Liriano .... 4 more starts???

[greengoblinrulz]

8 relatively solid starts now for Frankie since being reinstated.

49.2 IP 30h 15er 2.72ERA 52k 24bb.....99.25pitches per start

He can only screw up a deal 4 more times.....

If he woulda started the season like this, would he have gotten an extension???

[Mchans24]

Without a doubt. Problem is, we all expect him to melt down again at some point. They are trying to trade him, Gardy doing nothing but praising him on a night he walked six guys!!

[minn55441]

Will it be a package deal? The team that Takes Liriano also has to take Drew? they are a pitching team now.

[greengoblinrulz]

Will it be a package deal? The team that Takes Liriano also has to take Drew? they are a pitching team now.

without Frankie, Butera is again a AAA player.....but who will Gardy appoint to Drew to be his defensive savior after the deal??? My guess for personal catcher will be Blackburn

[jokin]

without Frankie, Butera is again a AAA player.....but who will Gardy appoint to Drew to be his defensive savior after the deal??? My guess for personal catcher will be Blackburn

Great! Can we send him down to Roc to join Blackie tomorrow?

[spideyo]

Hey, if Butera could get Blackburn to pitch like a Major League starter on a consistent basis, I'll take that!

 

On another Liriano note, anybody else read MLB.com's recap of the game? "It's certainly not a stretch to say Francisco Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since rejoining the Twins' rotation on May 30 after a stint in the bullpen." It goes on to say that he has been dominating, and pitching like an ace.

 

I'll give you that he's pitching much better, but one of the best pitchers in baseball? I don't think so. I would expect one of the best pitchers in baseball to make it through the 7th inning more than once in 8 games. Also, when I think "best pitcher in baseball" I think of guys who keep the bases clear, not guys who are really good at keeping the two guys they walked back to back from scoring.

 

But hey, if the excessive praise jacks up his trade value, then I suppose let's just keep piling it on.

[Boom Boom]

I was ready to give up on Liriano and trade him for anything... but given the dearth of pitching in the Twins org., I'd seriously consider offering Liriano a 2 year + option deal right now while the price may be cheaper.

 

If he continues pitching well, it's a great move. And if he does the Jekyll and Hyde routine again, you can try trading him later.

[Thrylos]

Hey, if Butera could get Blackburn to pitch like a Major League starter on a consistent basis, I'll take that!

 

On another Liriano note, anybody else read MLB.com's recap of the game? "It's certainly not a stretch to say Francisco Liriano has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since rejoining the Twins' rotation on May 30 after a stint in the bullpen." It goes on to say that he has been dominating, and pitching like an ace.

 

I'll give you that he's pitching much better, but one of the best pitchers in baseball? I don't think so. I would expect one of the best pitchers in baseball to make it through the 7th inning more than once in 8 games. Also, when I think "best pitcher in baseball" I think of guys who keep the bases clear, not guys who are really good at keeping the two guys they walked back to back from scoring.

 

But hey, if the excessive praise jacks up his trade value, then I suppose let's just keep piling it on.

 

Do not confuse Liriano's results (1.179 WHIP, .178 OBA, 3.38 ERA, 8.4 K/9 his last 6 starts) with when GardynAndy decide to take him out of the game. Manager's choice. Yes he has been pitching like an ace., but Gardy has been taking him out of the game.

[CTS]

Can anyone explain why this page: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins shows Liriano as the team leader in ERA? Surely Diamond has enough innings to qualify?

[IdahoPilgrim]

Can anyone explain why this page: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins shows Liriano as the team leader in ERA? Surely Diamond has enough innings to qualify?

No, he doesn't. To qualify you have to have one inning pitched per game the team as played. That means right now you need 83 innings. Liriano is the only one on staff who has that (83.1). Diamond has only 79. He'll probably qualify, though, after his next start.

[ancestral]

Teams would want Liriano not as a starter (this year) but as a middle-relief/situational pitcher. The fact that he is left-handed is perhaps the biggest reason to trade for him. Not sure where he ranks in the league this year, but lefties are batting .154 against Liriano.

[Guest USAFChief]

Teams would want Liriano not as a starter (this year) but as a middle-relief/situational pitcher. The fact that he is left-handed is perhaps the biggest reason to trade for him. Not sure where he ranks in the league this year, but lefties are batting .154 against Liriano.

Huh?

 

Get the extension done, TR. Get the extension done.

[TheLeviathan]

Apparently ERAs near 5 constitute ace material. Liriano has a strange power to inspire delusion.

[Guest USAFChief]

Apparently ERAs near 5 constitute ace material. Liriano has a strange power to inspire delusion.

A year from now you (and a lot of folks) will be bemoaning the Twins lack of front line starting pitching, while simultaneously shaking your head in wonderment at how good Liriano has been for the (insert team name here).

 

Much like you've had to back off from your "there is no reason to let Plouffe play, ever, anywhere, he can't hit or field" take from a couple months ago.

[greengoblinrulz]

A year from now you (and a lot of folks) will be bemoaning the Twins lack of front line starting pitching, while simultaneously shaking your head in wonderment at how good Liriano has been for the (insert team name here).

 

Much like you've had to back off from your "there is no reason to let Plouffe play, ever, anywhere, he can't hit or field" take from a couple months ago.

there were just enough of us yelling for Plouffe to get everyday ABs to show what he can do.

There is NO way I give Liriano even a 1yr extension right now....trade him. HOWEVER, after trading him....nothing wrong with looking at him in FA if the money is right.

[TheLeviathan]

A year from now you (and a lot of folks) will be bemoaning the Twins lack of front line starting pitching, while simultaneously shaking your head in wonderment at how good Liriano has been for the (insert team name here).

 

Much like you've had to back off from your "there is no reason to let Plouffe play, ever, anywhere, he can't hit or field" take from a couple months ago.

Are you unable to constitute a fair argument ever? I didn't want him getting regular ABs at second and still don't. Never had an issue with third.

 

I won't ever go back and question letting Liriano go. He's garbage. By the way ~ five ERA is frontline material eh? One of the ten worst starters in all of baseball by virtually every stat for two of the last three years is "frontline"?

 

My god. With the ability to delude people about crappy performance Frankie missed his calling as an infomercial pitchman.

[Guest USAFChief]

Are you unable to constitute a fair argument ever? I didn't want him getting regular ABs at second and still don't. Never had an issue with third.

 

I won't ever go back and question letting Liriano go. He's garbage. By the way ~ five ERA is frontline material eh? One of the ten worst starters in all of baseball by virtually every stat for two of the last three years is "frontline"?

 

My god. With the ability to delude people about crappy performance Frankie missed his calling as an infomercial pitchman.

1. Fair Argument? Perhaps I'm mistaken...are you a different Leviathan? Not the one that spent a month ridiculing anyone on BYTO who suggested Plouffe should be given a full time shot, somewhere?

 

You're embarrassing yourself to anyone who knows the backstory.

 

2. If you think Liriano is always going to be a "five ERA pitcher" or is even right now a "five ERA pitcher" then you're right. I don't. I think gambling on him is a better bet than anything they're likely to get for similar money.

 

We'll see. I'll be here to admit I was wrong, if I indeed was wrong. Somehow I doubt you'll reciprocate.

[TheLeviathan]

Backstory is easy: you wanted him at second base because you didn't think he could hit enough for RF. I wanted nothingnothing to do with that. I still wouldn't. But he has been an offensive marvel. I hope it continues and I'm glad a spot that made sense for him opened up so we could see this. Never once did I have an issue with him playing third just had low expectations. So far my expectations were wrong. Hope it stays that way just like Perkins, Span, and others. That's the true, fair version. Not your warped nonsense.

 

But its cute that less that 10 starts are enough to justify 20 million. Certainly these last ten tell us way more than last year, the start of this year, and all of 2009. Frontline indeed.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Is there a chance we could let Liriano go and, next year, when he has his head together, makes us look foolish? Yes - that is a real risk.

 

There is also a real risk that, if we give him an extension, he ends up going back into a funk, and people are griping next year about how foolish it was for Ryan not to move him when he had some/any value.

 

I guess it all comes down to which risk you think is greater. For myself, I have to look at his track record, and I'm more worried about the second choice than the first.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess it all comes down to which risk you think is greater. For myself, I have to look at his track record, and I'm more worried about the second choice than the first.

Any other conclusion is based on hope and a denial of the statistical preponderance of evidence. It isnt impossible for him to be great again but his track record says that is the sucker bet at this point.

[jm3319]

I feel like everyone has this same conversation every year. "Wow, look at Frankie, he has the potential to be the ace of this staff. lock him up." Yet for every dominant start he easily has 2 crappy ones, he just bunches them together. I say trade him and hope for the best. If there's anything Frankie has shown us is that he is consistently inconsistent. If the Twins had any depth at starting pitching he'd have been gone years ago.

[glunn]

Is there a chance we could let Liriano go and, next year, when he has his head together, makes us look foolish? Yes - that is a real risk.

 

There is also a real risk that, if we give him an extension, he ends up going back into a funk, and people are griping next year about how foolish it was for Ryan not to move him when he had some/any value.

 

I guess it all comes down to which risk you think is greater. For myself, I have to look at his track record, and I'm more worried about the second choice than the first.

It seems to me that despite all of the debate, almost everyone agrees that Liriano might be very bad going forward, or he might be very good going forward. Liriano's track record suggests that he is likely to be bad overall, but no one can predict the future.

 

What is undeniable is that when Liriano is in the zone, he can pitch like an ace. It also seems undeniable that aces are rare, and very valuable to teams that can make the postseason. And the Twins don't have many potential aces in the farm system.

 

I agree with sbknudson that this is a matter of risk, but I hope that the Twins make some offer based on risk assessment.

 

For example, if the best guess is that there is a 25% chance of Liriano being worth $36 million over 3 years and a 75% chance of him being worth $14 million, then why not make an offer of $19.5 million per year (i.e. $36 million + $14 million + $14 million + $14 million divided by 4). We can argue about the percentage chances of each outcome or the dollar amounts, but it seems to me that there is a lot of value in the possibility of Liriano maturing and becoming able to consistently realize his potential.

 

I agree with Chief that the offer should be made soon. If Liriano stays hot (and perhaps even improves) for the rest of this season, then he might get more than $36 million on the open market. But because he and his agent realize that the risk runs both ways, it seems possible that 3 years at something less than $20 million might be possible.

[jm3319]

It seems to me that despite all of the debate, almost everyone agrees that Liriano might be very bad going forward, or he might be very good going forward. Liriano's track record suggests that he is likely to be bad overall, but no one can predict the future.

 

What is undeniable is that when Liriano is in the zone, he can pitch like an ace. It also seems undeniable that aces are rare, and very valuable to teams that can make the postseason. And the Twins don't have many potential aces in the farm system.

 

I agree with sbknudson that this is a matter of risk, but I hope that the Twins make some offer based on risk assessment.

 

For example, if the best guess is that there is a 25% chance of Liriano being worth $36 million over 3 years and a 75% chance of him being worth $14 million, then why not make an offer of $19.5 million per year (i.e. $36 million + $14 million + $14 million + $14 million divided by 4). We can argue about the percentage chances of each outcome or the dollar amounts, but it seems to me that there is a lot of value in the possibility of Liriano maturing and becoming able to consistently realize his potential.

 

I agree with Chief that the offer should be made soon. If Liriano stays hot (and perhaps even improves) for the rest of this season, then he might get more than $36 million on the open market. But because he and his agent realize that the risk runs both ways, it seems possible that 3 years at something less than $20 million might be possible.

 

$19.5 million a YEAR? Excuse my language, but you're F#$&ing crazy. We're talking about a guy whose ERA over his last 45 starts is over 5.00 dating back to last season. His lowest season ERA is 2.16 but that was before his surgery. Since then, it's 3.62. Every other season has been 4+. How many "Aces" have ERA's over 4? Maybe 19.5 M over 2 seasons. Yes he shows flashes of figuring things out. His ERA is 2.74 over his last 8 starts, but that's 8 starts not a whole season. Can you imagine if the Twins signed him for $19.5M a year and his ERA was 5 again? People hate the Mauer contract, but at least Mauer is good and consistent (when healthy), but paying frankie $19.5M for 10 good starts a year is insane.

[ashbury]

$19.5 million a YEAR?

Maybe glunn will speak up, but if you re-read the longest paragraph it looks like "per year" was a typo (brain cramp) as the rest of the analysis was for a 3 year contract.

[jokin]

If Liriano stays hot (and perhaps even improves) for the rest of this season, then he might get more than $36 million on the open market. But because he and his agent realize that the risk runs both ways, it seems possible that 3 years at something less than $20 million might be possible.

Not to speak for Glunn, but this is the math from his post that makes the most sense. With the glut of SPs in the FA market off-season, I've got to think Liriano's actual number will come in closer to the latter than the former.

[DaveW]

Offer him a 2 year/16-17 mil contract (can go up to 9 mil a year with 200 IP/incentives) with a 10 mil team option (1 mil buy out). If he declines trade him for whatever you can get.

 

Giving him a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal is bad for a few reasons:

1. You are overpaying him by at least 3-4 million. The Twins don't have the luxury at this point to be over paying for players.

2. It doesn't solve your long term pitching issues. If Liriano pitches like a stud in 2013 then they end up losing him at the end of 2013 and there is another hole in the rotation moving forward. You need to have him around for at least 2 years to make it worthwhile (since the Twins look to have a better shot to win in 2014 then 2013)

 

Also it should also be noted that Liriano wouldn't need to pitch like an "ace" to make the contract worthwhile. If you are giving him 8-9 million a year and he gives you 190-200 IP with around a 4.00 ERA he is defiantly worth that money. (See Pavano's value in 2010/2011)

[glunn]

Maybe glunn will speak up, but if you re-read the longest paragraph it looks like "per year" was a typo (brain cramp) as the rest of the analysis was for a 3 year contract.

My error -- I meant $19.5 million over 3 years. Sorry for the goof up.

[glunn]

Offer him a 2 year/16-17 mil contract (can go up to 9 mil a year with 200 IP/incentives) with a 10 mil team option (1 mil buy out). If he declines trade him for whatever you can get.

 

Giving him a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal is bad for a few reasons:

1. You are overpaying him by at least 3-4 million. The Twins don't have the luxury at this point to be over paying for players.

2. It doesn't solve your long term pitching issues. If Liriano pitches like a stud in 2013 then they end up losing him at the end of 2013 and there is another hole in the rotation moving forward. You need to have him around for at least 2 years to make it worthwhile (since the Twins look to have a better shot to win in 2014 then 2013)

 

Also it should also be noted that Liriano wouldn't need to pitch like an "ace" to make the contract worthwhile. If you are giving him 8-9 million a year and he gives you 190-200 IP with around a 4.00 ERA he is defiantly worth that money. (See Pavano's value in 2010/2011)

What you say makes a lot of sense, Dave. I would also be happy to see 3 years at a total of $19.5 million or so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Offer him a 2 year/16-17 mil contract (can go up to 9 mil a year with 200 IP/incentives) with a 10 mil team option (1 mil buy out). If he declines trade him for whatever you can get.

 

Giving him a 1 year 12.5 million dollar deal is bad for a few reasons:

1. You are overpaying him by at least 3-4 million. The Twins don't have the luxury at this point to be over paying for players.

2. It doesn't solve your long term pitching issues. If Liriano pitches like a stud in 2013 then they end up losing him at the end of 2013 and there is another hole in the rotation moving forward. You need to have him around for at least 2 years to make it worthwhile (since the Twins look to have a better shot to win in 2014 then 2013)

 

Also it should also be noted that Liriano wouldn't need to pitch like an "ace" to make the contract worthwhile. If you are giving him 8-9 million a year and he gives you 190-200 IP with around a 4.00 ERA he is defiantly worth that money. (See Pavano's value in 2010/2011)

This isn't a terrible idea. Liriano should be worth something around $8m a year even if he's just mediocre.

 

On the other hand, I wouldn't mind it if they traded him, either.

[Rosterman]

Liriano is too expensive. $12 million required BY THE TWINS to keep him in 2013. Other teams can get him for less.

 

Hey, wait, sounds like David Ortiz all over again.

 

But the hard reality is that Liriano (unproven) probably would ratehr try the fre agent market. If the Twins offer him arbitration, he would have that to fall back on.

 

Better to trade him for something halfway decent, and THEN float a free agent offer to him, assuming his new team doesn't pick up the option. Then we find out how badly he wants to be a Twin.

 

It's a tough trade decision, because the new team will have the option to resign him, or offer him arbitration and get two draft choices. The Twins should be offered at least close to two draft picks for the guy.