The Revere Experiment: Range vs Arm

[Kris James Kulsrud]

Y'know, factoring the offense into the equation is an important aspect too. If Ben continues to hit and run like he's been doing, I think any extra bases he gives up because of his arm will be cancelled out by all the extra bases he'll take on the offense.

 

Can you really relate the two stats? That's like saying all the runners Joe Mauer throws out as a catcher make up for his lack of homerun hitting... Defense is defense. Offense is offense... If he gives up two sac flys in a game but then hits two singles and steals two bases but is stranded at 2nd both times is that an even trade off? Not in my mind.

[Jocko87]

Any stats to back that up? Presumably they would be for bases taken when the next guys are hitting; because, at the moment, Ben has a grand total of 6 doubles and 2 triples for the season, for the extra bases gained all on his own.

 

Given all his speed, you'd expect a much greater level of legged-out doubles, and maybe an inside-the-park HR by now, so it's pretty clear that nearly all his hits are of the punch-and-judy variety, and thus don't give his speed much chance to shine.

 

This thread started with a look at Revere's arm versus range, and has now broadened to his total game. With an OPS of only .725, it's still a pretty ordinary production level for RF. Adequate yes, and I didn't expect even this much from him, so I'm cheerfully ready to admit I was wrong to peg him as 4th OF for this season, and he's young so we can hope for more and more improvement. But it's a little soon to anoint him as an asset versus his league competition yet, in a lineup with too many table setters and not enough all-around hitters.

 

I still haven't seen any stats mentioned that show bases taken against right fielders. Is it really the case that league-wide Revere is not showing up as markedly worse at this than other players?

My gut feeling was that his baserunning was markedly worse than average and the stats seem to back that up. His extra base taken percentage is 32% while league average is 40%. He should be an almost automatic first to third but rarely does. If he would run the bases like he runs in the outfield it would be pretty sweet.

[Curt]

The reasons why Revere is better suited for LF rather than RF are two-fold. As noted, in LF, his arm would be less of a liability on throws to third and, also, since LF at Target Field is larger than RF, his range would be more of an asset there.

 

I agree that, in both of those cases, the differences are not very consequential but they are there. You do have to factor in that Willingham would have to play right and doesn't want to. It seems like it would be do-able for him to transition there but might not be worth it if he plays worse there than he does in left.

[Scheherezade]

My gawd, what a love fest we have going here.

 

I thought I remembered multiple commenters this spring saying Revere would never make it as an outfielder because of his arm. Am I mis-remebering? Are they just ducking for cover? C'mon, someone out there has to take the other side here. Or has this truth just become that self-evident?

 

Or have some, like nokomosid, changed their minds?

There were plenty. Ben's bat and feet made them duck out of this thread. =D

[John Bonnes]

Some points:

 

2. However, the "he can't play right field" crowd has always been wrong. First, while arm strength is slightly more important in RF than LF, again it's not a zero sum game. It's not like his arm won't cost bases in left, too. Second, "his range counts for less in RF" is incorrect. That makes no sense. His "range" is the same in right as left. In fact, his range might account for more outs in right, since more balls are hit to right than left.

 

Is that true? It is not obvious - I would think the opposite. Most hitters are right-handed, and most hitters pull the ball, so I would think there would be a lot more balls to left field than to right field. That (along with the aforementioned bigger space and shorter throws to 3rd) would be the reason I think it would make a lot more sense for him to play LF over RF.

 

But I'll be interested to find out if I'm wrong.

[Guest USAFChief]

Is that true? It is not obvious - I would think the opposite. Most hitters are right-handed, and most hitters pull the ball, so I would think there would be a lot more balls to left field than to right field. That (along with the aforementioned bigger space and shorter throws to 3rd) would be the reason I think it would make a lot more sense for him to play LF over RF.

 

But I'll be interested to find out if I'm wrong.

This has been posted before: right fielders make more put outs than left fielders virtually every year, something on the order of 10 percent or so. I'm not going to do the research again, it can be found on baseball ref. Check put outs by RFer vs. by LFer. CFers make more than either left or right.

[CDog]

This has been posted before: right fielders make more put outs than left fielders virtually every year, something on the order of 10 percent or so. I'm not going to do the research again, it can be found on baseball ref. Check put outs by RFer vs. by LFer. CFers make more than either left or right.

I know the above has been out there before, but is there corresponding data that you (or anyone else) knows of on balls hit to the various fields? I'm curious if there's just more balls hit to RF and that's all there is to it, or if there are more in the air but fewer on the ground, or if it's possible RF's are just showing more range, or something else.

[Guest USAFChief]

I know the above has been out there before, but is there corresponding data that you (or anyone else) knows of on balls hit to the various fields? I'm curious if there's just more balls hit to RF and that's all there is to it, or if there are more in the air but fewer on the ground, or if it's possible RF's are just showing more range, or something else.

 

Ive looked for spray chart data, can't find it. But if right fielders are annually catching more balls than left fielders isn't that what we care about?

[rinkratfrits]

I have said all along on multiple different threads here that Revere is a premier player to come, and his speed and instincts in the outfield significantly make up for his lack of arm strength. Anybody that understands how baseball is played and really gets the outfield position, should know that good reads/good angles to the ball/accurate cut off throws/great speed/relentless effort without care for ones body, outweigh a weak arm any day. Now add the fact that the kid can just flat out hit, and we have a piece of the puzzle that needs to be held on to. I probably watch almost every game the Twins play, and have been watching Ben closely ever since comments were made on here about how runners will have no problem at all going from 1st to 3rd on routine singles to right. Not once have I seen a play where a runner advanced to third due to his lack of arm strength. Where are all the Revere haters now?!

Revere's routes to fly balls are atrocious! He makes up for it with great athletic ability and speed. That is why Span plays CF.

[rinkratfrits]

I'm not saying that Revere is not turning into a major league outfielder. I'm one of the biggest Revere bashers out there, but he still has a ways to go...

[CDog]

Ive looked for spray chart data, can't find it. But if right fielders are annually catching more balls than left fielders isn't that what we care about?

Probably, but it's different if they (right fielders) are catching a higher % of fly balls hit their way (which would surprise me, especially by that margin) or if they're actually getting that many more chances (which is also slightly surprising, but makes more sense). Or some combination. Mostly curiosity, though.

[spideyo]

I'm not saying that Revere is not turning into a major league outfielder. I'm one of the biggest Revere bashers out there, but he still has a ways to go...

Yes, he has a ways to go before he becomes a superstar, but remember, he's only 24. He doesn't have the power that Span does, but he can still get stronger. He also steals more and gets picked off less than Span.

[Turd Furgeson]

Superstar? That's a wee bit lofty of an expectation to put on the kid. I don't see it. A valuable player, absolutely but not a superstar.

[spideyo]

Regardless, the point remains the same. He's still very young, and has plenty of time to grow his skills

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll admit to being one of the naysayers on Revere and thus far, I am quite happy to be wrong. I'm not, however, convinced in him just yet.

 

1) To answer the original question, I doubt anyone would say that the arm is more important than the range. I'd agree that range is the most important defensive aspect of OF because it eliminates base runners alltogether. The arm, however, does cost the Twins runs. The question is how many runs are picked up with range that are cost with the arm. If I were a guessing man, it's probably 3 to 1 or so, which is still a net win... that said...

 

2) Revere's biggest problem is a lack of power. That hasn't changed. I don't know where people get the idea that a SB is the same as a double. It isn't. It is certainly better than a single and nothing, but a double will clear the bases with just about any runner on 1st. A stolen base does not advance runners, and last I checked, we have a manager that talks the talk with SBs but doesn't call them nearly as often as he should. This just means that Revere at the plate with runners on will typically generate less runs than a Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, or Plouff in the same situation. Putting him up at the top helps limit that exposure, which is fine.

 

3) His other problem, that to date he has fixed, is his ability to get on base. I'm not convinced that major leaguers will not adjust to him a bit, but based on what I saw of him this week, the kid should be able to consistently hit around the .300 mark as long as he takes good at bats like he did this series and continues to make good solid contact on the ball.

 

4) Like his pitch to contact brethern on the mound, Revere's skillset walks a very, very, very fine line. His usefullness will be non-existent when the speed drops off should he not develop any power. A small tweak to the hammy or something like that will result in an entire lost season. This is not the type of guy you want to depend on.

 

That said, his ceiling is still a Jason Tyner type player with better defense. It's a nice stop gap, but it isn't a stand out guy either. Tyner didn't walk much and could hit for average. He had no power and played pretty decent defense. I can live with a guy like that in the OF as a stop gap, but in reality he's more or less a very very very good 4th OF. Given that the Twins are not in contention, this should make it easy to trade Span if they want to add some starting pitching, as Revere should be able to hold down a spot until Arcia, Hicks, and Benson arrive, but to count on him for more than that is not a good idea.

[diehardtwinsfan]

oh, and just to go off topic for a minute... With Joe Mauer and his swing at the 1st pitch less than 10% of the time, why doesn't Gardy call a hit and run with Revere on and Mauer at the plate? You know Joe is going to get a meatball...

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not picking a fight, just curious - did Jackson take third today on Revere? I heard the radio call and it seemed like Provost intentionally covered it up mid-call, but maybe I was reading into it.

[snepp]

I'm not picking a fight, just curious - did Jackson take third today on Revere? I heard the radio call and it seemed like Provost intentionally covered it up mid-call, but maybe I was reading into it.

Can't put that one I Revere I don't think. Once Jackson decided he was going for third I don't think it mattered.

 

Maybe Jackson decides to stay at second if a stronger arm was out there, but I doubt it.

[Scheherezade]

I'm not picking a fight, just curious - did Jackson take third today on Revere? I heard the radio call and it seemed like Provost intentionally covered it up mid-call, but maybe I was reading into it.

I can't remember it exactly, but I'm pretty sure Ben was on the warning track when he caught it. So, a pretty easy tag on most arms.

[Kobs]

It's too bad you can only either have a guy with great range and no arm or no range and a great arm.

[Guest USAFChief]

I can't remember it exactly, but I'm pretty sure Ben was on the warning track when he caught it. So, a pretty easy tag on most arms.

I think they're talking about the triple.

 

FWIW, I was listening to the Tiger radio b'cast on the way to work, and they made it sound like a triple all the way.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

With the exception of Tags. The reality is that players will take the extra base on an OF like Doumit... More often than Revere. . The reason... Revere gets to the ball faster and in better positin to make a throw with His speed and range. That is what runners use to decide if they are going or not. Where is the OF and where is the ball.

 

I haven't seen an example of a base gained because of Bens arm this year. There will be some to come (not many) but I haven't seen it yet.

You obviously haven't been watching very closely... There were 3 in that disaster of a day game against the Chisox alone.

[Turd Furgeson]

It was about midway along foul line wall in right field. Revere had to throw the ball to Dozier, the cutoff man though. Hard to say whether someone else would have made the throw, it would have been difficult but I think Jackson might think twice about trying for it if a strong arm was there instead.

[whydidnt]

It was about midway along foul line wall in right field. Revere had to throw the ball to Dozier, the cutoff man though. Hard to say whether someone else would have made the throw, it would have been difficult but I think Jackson might think twice about trying for it if a strong arm was there instead.

Agreed.

It's too subjective to try and really quantify a net positive or negative from Revere's defense in RF. Bottom line is it is still extremely silly to put him in right and Willingham in left, especially at Target field. He has gotten on base at a higher rate than I expected so far, and that makes him an ok starter. He's a "fun" player to watch, and I'm glad he's holding his own. I just would love to see the Twins maximize his defensive value by playing him in left or center. We often talk about out it's only a few runs difference, but this team doesn't have any margin for error.

[Riverbrian]

You obviously haven't been watching very closely... There were 3 in that disaster of a day game against the Chisox alone.

I didn't see that game. I also haven't seen runners flying around the bases because Ben is out there and I won't. Because too much is made of his arm.

[TheLeviathan]

I didn't see that game. I also haven't seen runners flying around the bases because Ben is out there and I won't. Because too much is made of his arm.

Well, as long as you're being reasonable about it......

[Guest USAFChief]

Agreed.

It's too subjective to try and really quantify a net positive or negative from Revere's defense in RF. Bottom line is it is still extremely silly to put him in right and Willingham in left, especially at Target field. He has gotten on base at a higher rate than I expected so far, and that makes him an ok starter. He's a "fun" player to watch, and I'm glad he's holding his own. I just would love to see the Twins maximize his defensive value by playing him in left or center. We often talk about out it's only a few runs difference, but this team doesn't have any margin for error.

You can make a case for Revere in left, and Willingham in right, but extremely silly? No. The difference is very slight, at best. Revere's range plays the same in left or right. If indeed more balls are hit to right, and it's hard to read the baseball ref data any other way, then perhaps Revere's range even plays better in right. Some runners would advance on Revere's arm in left, just as they do when he's in right. Likely not as many, but it's not like a runner here and there wouldn't go first to third on a ball to Revere in left that wouldn't on Willingham, and a runner on third will occasionally tag and score on a fly ball to Revere in left that wouldn't score on Willingham.

 

People make way too much of this.

[old nurse]

[quote name=USAFChief

 

People make way too much of this.[/quote]

 

What else do you do when the team has lousy pitching, lousy clutch hitting and thus a losing season?

[Riverbrian]

Well, as long as you're being reasonable about it......

Im trying for reason... I really am.

 

Q: Does his arm suck comparably to the average?

A: Yes it does.

 

Q: Can Ben throw the ball 200 feet

A: Yes he can

 

Denard Span has played 1219 innings since 2011 and has 3 assists over that span(pun not intended).

Ben Revere has played 1330 innings since 2011 and has 5 assists over that span.

 

Looking at 2011

Alex Gordon played 1309 innings in 2011 and led the league with 20 Assists.

Nick Swisher (Random RF) 1190 innings in 2011 9 assists.

 

Somehow Span gets a free pass for his arm and a large majority of posters wring their hands over Revere

 

In a similiar amount of innings Alex Gordon threw out 15 more runners than Revere which is a about 1 base runner every ten games. Keep in mind that Gordon was the top arm in 2011.

 

Random RF Nick Swisher threw out 9 last year. That's 1 more baserunner tossed every 35 games in comparison to Revere.

 

Swisher and Revere both have 2 this year. Ben has less innings this year. What exactly are we talking about here?

 

Its real simple... Bens arm does suck but Runners are advancing the extra base on Francouer and they are advancing on Ben Revere. They advance based upon where the ball is and where the fielder is.

 

Ben will get to the ball(assumption) 3 to 5 steps quicker than Ryan Doumit and should more often be able to get into a better throwing position with his Speed to the ball. This is what runners and base coaches use to determine if the extra base will be attempted to be taken. Does he have the ball in his hands or is he still running toward the ball. They don't want to get tossed out on the base paths. If Ben has the ball. They will stop the runner. He doesn't have a hose but he does have the ball and he can throw the ball faster than any of them can run despite his piss poor arm.

 

The Hose from the OF is a beautiful thing and it's a key out when it happens. Absolutely huge... It just doesn't happen that often and I haven't witnessed an over abundance of advancement of extra bases on Bens arm.

 

I missed the White Sox debacle. Would Parmelee or Willingham in RF made a difference in that game. I don't know... I didn't see it. In the games I've watched. The arm just hasn't come into play enough to say that it's a concern.

 

I say this as reasonably as I can.

[Cody Christie]

There has been more than one time this season that I have been impressed with the throws from Revere. I liked his range better in CF last year but he has been fine in RF this season.