Aaron Hicks and the platoon

[Brock Beauchamp]

As I said last week in another thread, I think it's a mistake to platoon a guy who is raking like Aaron Hicks has been over the past month of play... But then I started realizing it's possible, maybe even likely, Aaron Hicks is good enough against RHP to not be a platoon candidate at all.

 

Aaron Hicks in first callup: .594 OPS, .5?? RHP OPS, 93 PAs.

 

While I'm too lazy to find the login for a site that will give me his RHP splits over that period of time, I think it's safe to say he probably had an OPS against RHP somewhere around .500, almost certainly under .550.

 

Aaron Hicks, today: .786 OPS, .678 RHP OPS, 237 PAs.

 

In roughly 145 PAs, Aaron Hicks has raised his RHP OPS around 150-200 points. Back of the napkin math tells me he has an RHP OPS somewhere around league average since the callup.

 

I don't know if the new Aaron Hicks is around to stay but if he is, he may be the most complete player on the team not named Brian Dozier.

[diehardtwinsfan]

At his age, I don't think you platoon him.  I'd probably have him starting next year and let him play out the entire season as an OF starter (though if you give him a day off, it should be against RH pitchers).  You can examine those splits at that point and determine if he should be platooned. 

[Linus]

He clearly should not  be platooned at this point in his career.  While he may never be a great left handed hitter, he may improve to the acceptable level and that would be worth waiting for.

 

Assuming Buxton is ready soon to take over CF, I think the more interesting question is whether Hicks has more value as a corner outfielder on the Twins or as CF trade piece.

[Headfirst]

With the addition of the bigger leg kick to his swing we need more time to see if he is an overall improved hitter at the plate.  Last night is very encouraging with 4 solid hits against a RHP.  I agree that after a full year of improved hitting we can then look at his splits more effectively.  

 

Loving the look of a healthy Buxton, the new and improved Hicks, consistent Rosario outfield on a nightly basis next year. Kepler and Arcia as bench options maybe?  

[Major League Ready]

 

He clearly should not  be platooned at this point in his career.  While he may never be a great left handed hitter, he may improve to the acceptable level and that would be worth waiting for.

 

Assuming Buxton is ready soon to take over CF, I think the more interesting question is whether Hicks has more value as a corner outfielder on the Twins or as CF trade piece.

You have to find the right trade partner but you have to believe he is more valuable as a CFer.  I think the OF situation will require most of next year to sort itself out.  We need to get Buxton and Kepler up here and then let it play out.  Kepler is starting to hit home runs and he has always produced a lot of XBHs.  He probably profiles better as a corner OFer.  Buxton, Kepler and Rosario would make a great defensive OF and they can all hit.  That could be our OF for several years.  Rosario needs to learn how to take a walk but that generally develops a little later. 

 

Form a position player standpoint, This team would be looking very good if Hicks could eventually be traded for the catcher we need.  How nice would it be if we would have drafted Trea Turner?  The team of the future would look like this ....

 

SS  Turner    ----

CF  Buxton   ----

LF  Kepler    ----  That would be some serious speed 1-3. We would lead the league in triples.

3B  Sano

2B  Dozier

1B  Mauer

RF  Rosario / AB Walker

 C   Player from Hicks trade

DH  Arcia / Walker / Vargas or other

 

Plouffe traded for pitching

Escobar / Santana - utility players

Polanco ?

[HitInAPinch]

I would not:

1. Trade Hicks
2. Platoon Hicks
3. Move Hicks out of CF for Buxton

Like I posted elsewhere this morning, the recent success Buxton has had recently is over 19 AB's.  Hicks recent success is over 24 games, 99 PA's.  I like Buxton's potential a lot.  But I don't believe in moving a successful player for potential, only.  Sept. is a good time to check it out. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

As I said last week in another thread, I think it's a mistake to platoon a guy who is raking like Aaron Hicks has been over the past month of play... But then I started realizing it's possible, maybe even likely, Aaron Hicks is good enough against RHP to not be a platoon candidate at all.

 

Aaron Hicks in first callup: .594 OPS, .5?? RHP OPS, 93 PAs.

 

While I'm too lazy to find the login for a site that will give me his RHP splits over that period of time, I think it's safe to say he probably had an OPS against RHP somewhere around .500, almost certainly under .550.

 

Aaron Hicks, today: .786 OPS, .678 RHP OPS, 237 PAs.

 

In roughly 145 PAs, Aaron Hicks has raised his RHP OPS around 150-200 points. Back of the napkin math tells me he has an RHP OPS somewhere around league average since the callup.

 

I don't know if the new Aaron Hicks is around to stay but if he is, he may be the most complete player on the team not named Brian Dozier.

Ok ok Brock, you (or rather Aaron Hicks) earned this I Told You So. Fair enough. I'm thrilled to see him crush a right-hander, but just keep in mind, one game-- even one this good, doesn't make him a major-league caliber left-handed hitter.  A .678 OPS against RHP is fine for a plus-defender CF, but it won't cut it long-term as a corner outfielder, which we all know is where Hicks will be playing when Buxton "arrives" for real. That being said, as you note, hopefully this is the continuation of a trend that will be ongoing, in which case fantastic. If he can hit .700-.750 OPS again RHP then with his plus defense (especially for a corner) and his absolute obliteration of LHP, he can definitely be a huge asset in a corner spot. Then it comes down to whether you want Rosario or Kepler as your LF.  I think that depends on whether you are going to have space to play Kepler at 1B and DH somewhat regularly, in which case I think you make Rosario your primary left fielder.  But with Sano at DH (unless Plouffe is traded) and Mauer, Arcia, and Vargas all options at DH/1B, I don't see that happening.  So then what do you do with those four outfielders? Trade one? Semi-platooon them with Hicks sitting only against the best RHP? I'm not sure. But it sure is a fun problem to have.

[GACbaseball]

I would not:

 

• Trade Hicks
• Platoon Hicks
• Move Hicks out of CF for Buxton

Like I posted elsewhere this morning, the recent success Buxton has had recently is over 19 AB's.  Hicks recent success is over 24 games, 99 PA's.  I like Buxton's potential a lot.  But I don't believe in moving a successful player for potential, only.  Sept. is a good time to check it out.

I would definitely move Hicks out of CF for Buxton. Hicks is a better hitter right now, I get that, but that has nothing to do with outfield defense. I think Buxton is a better defensive CF than Hicks right now, and that's not selling Hicks short at all, just saying that Buxton is an absolute freak out there. Hicks could certainly keep hitting and playing outstanding defense in RF. What ball would drop with a Rosario-Buxton-Hicks OF?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd trade an outfielder. My personal preference is Rosario but I doubt the Twins feel the same because they seem to love Eddie's grustle and hit.

 

Or hustle and grit. Whatever. I don't ****ing care, it's a dumb reason to keep a player, IMO.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I would not:

1. Trade Hicks
2. Platoon Hicks
3. Move Hicks out of CF for Buxton

Like I posted elsewhere this morning, the recent success Buxton has had recently is over 19 AB's.  Hicks recent success is over 24 games, 99 PA's.  I like Buxton's potential a lot.  But I don't believe in moving a successful player for potential, only.  Sept. is a good time to check it out. 

I agree with those for this season. But if Buxton plays defense like we know he can this September, I think you move him to CF. The decision on whether Hicks or Buxton plays CF should be based solely on their defense. They are both going to be in the lineup next season anyway.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I would definitely move Hicks out of CF for Buxton. Hicks is a better hitter right now, I get that, but that has nothing to do with outfield defense. I think Buxton is a better defensive CF than Hicks right now, and that's not selling Hicks short at all, just saying that Buxton is an absolute freak out there. Hicks could certainly keep hitting and playing outstanding defense in RF. What ball would drop with a Rosario-Buxton-Hicks OF?

 

Do we KNOW that Hicks will play outstanding defense in RF?  It's a different animal:  in CF, most hits will be in a straight line and there's only one wall to worry about.  In RF, there's gonna be some nasty sliced drives out there and another wall to work with. 

 

What we know right now is Hicks is hitting very well and playing defense very well in CF.  Buxton does have great defensive skills.  But you also have to take into account Buxton's offense.  All we've got is 2 small sample sizes: 1 unsuccessful trip in MLB and 1 successful trip in AAA ball.  If Buxton gets a Sept callup [more that likely] then he gets another chance to prove he can hit MLB pitching.  Only then would I consider moving Hicks.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

I agree with those for this season. But if Buxton plays defense like we know he can this September, I think you move him to CF. The decision on whether Hicks or Buxton plays CF should be based solely on their defense. They are both going to be in the lineup next season anyway.

Buxton MUST hit as well.  I don't know why we'd settle for Buxton to be a partial player.  Use the same process as they did with Hicks.

[Linus]

 

I'd trade an outfielder. My personal preference is Rosario but I doubt the Twins feel the same because they seem to love Eddie's grustle and hit.

 

Or hustle and grit. Whatever. I don't ****ing care, it's a dumb reason to keep a player, IMO.

You might be on to something here.  Rosario is a nice player but has a lower ceiling than either Hicks or Kepler.  If they all reach their potential then I see an outfield of Kepler, Buxton and Hicks.

[TJW]

Hicks . . . Surprisingly Hicks

 

Unfortunately, Hicks is exactly the type of guy the twins trade - an enigmatic center fielder who has a talented player who may take his place - see Gomez, Spann and Revere.  I would rather keep Hicks and Buxton and trade/platoon any of the other options.  However, we know that TR likes to get rid of talented young centerfielders for garbage - so my guess is he gets traded.  Most likely, TR will wait until Hicks goes hitless for a couple of games so he can sell lower.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You might be on to something here.  Rosario is a nice player but has a lower ceiling than either Hicks or Kepler.  If they all reach their potential then I see an outfield of Kepler, Buxton and Hicks.

I don't know if Rosario's ceiling is lower than Kepler but I'll take Kepler's plate discipline any day of the week.

 

It's a close call. I can see the Twins trading any of Kepler, Hicks, or Rosario and I'm not sure it'd be the wrong decision. Arguments can be made for or against any of them.

 

In the end, my personal decision would come down to "which player gets the most in return?"

[nytwinsfan]

 

Buxton MUST hit as well.  I don't know why we'd settle for Buxton to be a partial player.  Use the same process as they did with Hicks.

Buxton must hit well enough to be a starter, agreed. I know you are skeptical he will, due to some extremely high baseline skepticism of prospects, but I am not.  In any event, if he hits enough to be a starter in the lineup, then the decision of who should play CF should be based solely on defense. That is all I was saying. If you disagree with that, I don't know what to tell you.

[Linus]

 

I don't know if Rosario's ceiling is lower than Kepler but I'll take Kepler's plate discipline any day of the week.

 

It's a close call. I can see the Twins trading any of Kepler, Hicks, or Rosario and I'm not sure it'd be the wrong decision. Arguments can be made for or against any of them.

 

In the end, my personal decision would come down to "which player gets the most in return?"

I guess from my perspective, Kepler's potential power gives him the nod over Rosario as they both should play above average defense.  Or, maybe one of them just doesn't make it and our "problem" is solved.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I guess from my perspective, Kepler's potential power gives him the nod over Rosario as they both should play above average defense.  Or, maybe one of them just doesn't make it and our "problem" is solved.

I think you're putting too much stock in Kepler's recent breakout. It's possible he's turning the corner and becoming a bit of a power threat but Rosario was always a power threat, at least relative to Max.

 

Rosario MiLB: 1974 PAs, 60 HR, 107 2B, 27 3B.

 

Kepler MiLB: 1714 PAs, 32 HR, 94 2B, 30 3B.

 

And while Max is a fringy centerfielder, Rosario is a legit CF. Not a particularly good one at the MLB level but certainly enough to play there a few seasons. It's questionable whether Max has the range to ever play MLB CF. Rosario is the better defender, though the difference between the players may not be large.

[dbminn]

Hicks's second half has been remarkable, no doubt. His splits are wide but might improve with experience. (Nice to see him have multiple LH hits last night). In any case, I agree he has earned the right to play full-time this year, at least as long as the Twins are in contention.

 

Rosario is more than hustle and grit - he has plenty of athleticism and baseball skills. He's a 23 year old rookie who's accumulated 1.2 WAR in less than 300 PA. That puts him slightly above "good" in the WAR world. As a rookie. I believe he will add a couple of percentage points to his %BB and to drop a few from %K in the next couple years. That would leave him with percentages similar to his long-term minor league history and improve his offensive WAR.

 

I would be happy with Rosario, Buxton and Hicks as the 2016 starting OF. I think this is the most likely case at this point. I could see Rosario or Hicks being traded in the offseason for either a C or SS. That's fine too. Just don't trade Kepler.

 

[Vance_Christianson]

I would hold onto all 4, Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and Kepler!!!! All 4 can play all 3 OF spots!!! Depth!!! I'd be trading guys like Arcia, Harrison, Plouffe, Vargas, etc.

 

2016 25 Man Roster by July 1st (I think Kepler starts in AAA and comes up July 1st):

1. Buxton - CF  assuming he can figure out off speed MLB pitching

2. Hicks - RF    assuming he can keep hitting .275+ and taking walks

3. Dozier - 2b

4. Sano - 3b

5. Mauer - 1b/DH

6. Hunter - DH   I think we'll resign him next year, but I could see Vargas taking over DH by then

7. Kepler - LF/1b  3-4 games a week in LF, n then 1 game a week at 1b to rest Mauer

8. catcher we add through trade from trading Plouffe and something else

9. Polanco - SS

Bench: Escobar or Nunez (1 will not be here), Rosario (plays LF n RF 1 time each a week n maybe DH 1 game), Arcia or Vargas as PH/DH (I don't think both will be here, and i think the twins like Vargas more), Suzuki

 

The reason I start Kepler, Buxton, and Hicks over Rosario is simple. Plate discipline. Assuming Buxton and Kepler follow their same MILB career stats they should develop discipline.

 

This will be the deepest 13 man bench I think I will have ever seen for the Twins, and AAA will have lots of depth for us as well with Harrison, Danny Ortiz, Beresford, Santana, Walker, etc.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rosario is more than hustle and grit - he has plenty of athleticism and baseball skills. He's a 23 year old rookie who's accumulated 1.2 WAR in less than 300 PA. That puts him slightly above "good" in the WAR world. As a rookie. I believe he will add a couple of percentage points to his %BB and to drop a few from %K in the next couple years. That would leave him with percentages similar to his long-term minor league history and improve his offensive WAR.

Rosario is absolutely more than hustle and grit. He's a nice young player. I simply prefer Hicks and Kepler for their plate discipline.

[Vance_Christianson]

 

I think you're putting too much stock in Kepler's recent breakout. It's possible he's turning the corner and becoming a bit of a power threat but Rosario was always a power threat, at least relative to Max.

 

Rosario MiLB: 1974 PAs, 60 HR, 107 2B, 27 3B.

 

Kepler MiLB: 1714 PAs, 32 HR, 94 2B, 30 3B.

 

And while Max is a fringy centerfielder, Rosario is a legit CF. Not a particularly good one at the MLB level but certainly enough to play there a few seasons. It's questionable whether Max has the range to ever play MLB CF. Rosario is the better defender, though the difference between the players may not be large.

I wonder how many of those PA's Kepler was injured and still playing anyways (the past couple years it seemed like he always had lingering injuries), but I guess that can be said for anyone. I think 60/40 will lean towards Kepler having the higher ceiling (myself included) because of this speed, athletic ability, and he's 6-4 240lbs. I personally look at him being our next Justin Morneau, just with a little more athletic ability n speed.

 

Regardless, I think Rosario and Kepler will both have good to great MLB careers! The Twins talent is starting to arrive, and the Farm System appears to be doing their job in developing these young studs!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I wonder how many of those PA's Kepler was injured and still playing anyways (the past couple years it seemed like he always had lingering injuries), but I guess that can be said for anyone. I think 60/40 will lean towards Kepler having the higher ceiling (myself included) because of this speed, athletic ability, and he's 6-4 240lbs. I personally look at him being our next Justin Morneau, just with a little more athletic ability n speed.

 

Regardless, I think Rosario and Kepler will both have good to great MLB careers! The Twins talent is starting to arrive, and the Farm System appears to be doing their job in developing these young studs!

That's fair. I personally believe the two players have similar ceilings, though Rosario has begun to reach that ceiling in MLB games so he gets some credit for that.

 

Max doesn't need to have Rosario's power to be a similarly valuable player. If can carry over most of that MiLB isoD (.080) to MLB games, that's worth its weight in gold.

 

By comparison, Rosario had a MiLB isoD of around .050.

[South Dakota Tom]

I like the look of Vance's lineup, with a couple of possible alterations. 

 

1.  I keep both Vargas and Arcia and do not resign Torii - they are the DH.

2.  I like keeping all four outfielders and rotating them - Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, and Kepler.

3.  DH spot moves to 5 hole; Mauer to 6.

4.  Bench is Escobar (versatility), Suzuki, 2nd DH, and 4th OF.

 

The other consideration is how to fill the C and SS holes.  I like Polanco's potential, don't know how much we could fetch for Danny Santana right now (so let him play everyday SS in AAA), but consider another option.  Trevor has improved his first step and always has had a great arm.  He could be a rock at SS at this point in his career - more like a JJ Hardy shortstop than a highlight reel, but I am convinced he would now make the plays there, and lets Sano take over 3b.

 

With Pelfrey and Torii's money gone, that could put us in the market for a C without trading substantial future assets. 

 

Then the lineup looks like this (for today, I'm assuming Eddie R doesn't start):

1. Buxton  2. Hicks  3. Dozier  4. Sano  5. Plouffe  6.  Arcia/Vargas  7. Mauer  8. Kepler  9. Catcher

 

Young and fast and powerful.  Set for several years.  In 3 years, Sano moves to 1b, Plouffe back to 3b, and future SS (Nick Gordon) is ready.

 

Bench is Escobar, Rosario, Suzuki, and Arcia/Vargas.  I have seen the names of potential catching prospects, but wonder if there aren't other position players in the organization who could be moved for that catcher, or one found on the open market or through off-season trade to fill the 9-hole with a youngish, defense-first catcher with some upside.

[Shane Wahl]

 

At his age, I don't think you platoon him.  I'd probably have him starting next year and let him play out the entire season as an OF starter (though if you give him a day off, it should be against RH pitchers).  You can examine those splits at that point and determine if he should be platooned. 

 

No platoon, but many spot starts for Kepler next year instead of Hicks and Buxton. Kepler could give all three OFs a day off once, or almost once a week, plus a 1B start almost once a week and a DH start almost once a week. Adds up to about 4 starts a week, and would really serve to complete the position player roster.

[dbminn]

 

Rosario is absolutely more than hustle and grit. He's a nice young player. I simply prefer Hicks and Kepler for their plate discipline.

 

Ultimately, I agree with you. Kepler's BB/K ratio is hard to find in the modern game. And, with Hicks on the roster the Twins have a starting RF/backup CF if Buxton gets hurt. Finally, I think Rosario has a better trade value than Kepler right now. MLB experience is valued and GMs don't want to trade an MLB ready C or SS for a player that isn't visible to the fans for a year or more.

 

I just have a higher opinion of Rosario than most (Fangraph's McDaniel predicts Rosario to be an "empty" .270 hitter for his career). Moving towards his career BB/K ratio would increase his OBP by .030+ (reduced Ks mean a few extra hits) and I believe he'll hit a few more homers as he matures. Just this reasonable improvement puts him pretty high up in OF productivity, maybe 120+ WRC.

 

Bottom line: I too would prefer Rosario traded to either Hicks or Kepler. I would not trade him for less than what I believe is his future worth.