Article: TD Midseason Top Prospects: #6 Stephen Gonsalves

[Nick Nelson]

A 6-foot-5 left-handed pitcher with a fastball in the 90s and good command is a rare breed. Throw in spectacular results at his first full-season stop in the minors and you've got a player whose stock is rapidly on the rise.

 

Stephen Gonsalves ranked 13th in our preseason prospect rankings and after a tremendous first half, he's now bordering on the Top 5 in our midseason update.Age: 20

2015 Stats (A/A+): 64 IP, 7-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 81/21 K/BB

ETA: 2018

2015 Preseason Ranking: 13

 

What's To Like

 

There was a lot to like about Gonsalves as a dominating high school hurler in Southern California, to the point that many projected him as a first- or second-round pick in the 2013 draft, but he dropped to the fourth mostly due to off-the-field issues. The Twins selected him 110th overall and enticed him to forego a scholarship offer at the University of San Diego with a $700,000 signing bonus that was nearly $250K over slot.

 

Since signing, Gonsalves has performed very much like a first-round talent deserving of that lucrative bonus. By the end of his first full pro season last year, he was at Low-A Cedar Rapids and pitching well. He started there again this year and did more than pitch well, with some of the most ridiculous numbers you'll see: In nine starts for the Kernels, he went 6-1 with a 1.15 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 77-to-15 K/BB ratio over 55 innings. His 12.6 K/9 rate led the entire organization.

 

Gonsalves was particularly untouchable over his last three starts at Cedar Rapids, allowing zero earned runs and six hits over 19 innings with 30 strikeouts, and leaving the Twins with little choice but to promote him to the Florida State League, where he became one of just 10 players aged 20 or younger to throw a pitch.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

Since joining the Ft. Myers Miracle, Gonsalves has experienced the first real adversity of his pro career, failing to demonstrate the same superiority that was regularly on display in the Midwest League. What can't be emphasized enough, though, is the age and experience differential at this level of competition. The average player in the FSL is 23 years old; Gonsalves doesn't turn 21 until next month.

 

He needs to make adjustments, and refine his control against more advanced hitters (he has issued six walks over nine innings in his first two starts), but there's little reason to think he can't do so given his ability and his history.

 

What's Next

 

Gonsalves will almost surely finish out this season at Ft. Myers, and unless he finishes extremely strong he seems likely to start there again in 2016. If he can reach Double-A by the end of next year, at which point he'll be 22, that would be a good scenario, putting him on track to reach the majors potentially in 2017 but more likely in 2018.

 

That, of course, is if everything goes to plan and he avoids injury. Big "ifs," and Gonsalves has a long ways to go, which is why excitement should still be tempered for the time being. But right now, he's showing all the signs of developing into a big, overpowering lefty starter.

 

TD Top Prospect #10 - Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #9 - Max Kepler

TD Top Prospect #8 - Eddie Rosario

TD Top Prospect #7 - Nick Gordon

 

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[nater79a]

So, the walks are up after Gonsalves' promotion.  Wonder if this is a case of MWL hitters chasing more pitches out of the zone? More experienced hitters in the FSL are probably going to lay off those pitches.

 

Like you said, Nick...refinement.

[Ben Remington]

I really like Gonsalves. Drafted him in my beautifully/absurdly deep dynasty league a year ago.

 

The 'off the field issues' was supposedly not telling on a teammate who was smoking pot at a tournament, leading to a suspension. #SnitchesGetStitches

[Thegrin]

I appreciate the links to your other articles in the series. It was good to catch up on the ones I missed.

[nytwinsfan]

Another great article. That being said, although Gonsalves is a good prospect especially for his age, I guess I would take dominating AA at 22 (Kepler) over dominating low A ball as a 20 year old. I would have switched these two. But maybe this is also a result of the order being decided a few weeks ago.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Another great article. That being said, although Gonsalves is a good prospect especially for his age, I guess I would take dominating AA at 22 (Kepler) over dominating low A ball as a 20 year old. I would have switched these two. But maybe this is also a result of the order being decided a few weeks ago.

 

Forget Kepler . . . is Kohl Stewart actually being ranked higher than Gonsalves here? Stewart, Polanco, Berrios, Sano, and Buxton are left, right?

[nytwinsfan]

I was guessing Jay, but maybe they are not including him yet.

[nater79a]

Probably Jay, if eligible. I'd have Stewart down at about 11 or 12.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Another great article. That being said, although Gonsalves is a good prospect especially for his age, I guess I would take dominating AA at 22 (Kepler) over dominating low A ball as a 20 year old. I would have switched these two. But maybe this is also a result of the order being decided a few weeks ago.

 

We may have too, if we would have decided our rankings 2 weeks later than we did.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Forget Kepler . . . is Kohl Stewart actually being ranked higher than Gonsalves here? Stewart, Polanco, Berrios, Sano, and Buxton are left, right?

 

You'll just have to come back and check...

[DarrenVahtra]

I also think this is a bit high for Gonsalves. Saw him pitch, he simply overmatched mwl hitters by having a legitimate 3 pitch mix. He was able to keep those inexperienced hitters off his fastball. As he ascends I think his lack of velocity is going to increasingly limit his ability to miss bats, which in turn limits his upside a bit.

[DocBauer]

With his stuff and potential and not even 21 yet, he should throw his first ML pitch 23-25. 23 would be awesome, but if he doesn't stick full time until 25, who could complain? Big, strapping, hard throwing LHSP who can dominate and get SO's are just so rare the a little patience/impatience may be well rewarded.

[drjim]

 

Forget Kepler . . . is Kohl Stewart actually being ranked higher than Gonsalves here? Stewart, Polanco, Berrios, Sano, and Buxton are left, right?

 

Are you sure Stewart wouldn't put up similar numbers in Low A?

 

I certainly have advocated pumping the brakes a little on Gonsalves. I like him and don't especially quibble with this placement considering the alternatives, but putting up numbers in a second go around in Low A doesn't move the needle a ton for me.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Another great article. That being said, although Gonsalves is a good prospect especially for his age, I guess I would take dominating AA at 22 (Kepler) over dominating low A ball as a 20 year old. I would have switched these two. But maybe this is also a result of the order being decided a few weeks ago.

Part of it is that these rankings are based on more than this season's production alone. The other part is that we're looking at player types. All things being equal, you're going to value a guy who projects as a big LH starter that misses bats over a guy who projects to be a solid offensive corner OF.

 

 

I also think this is a bit high for Gonsalves. Saw him pitch, he simply overmatched mwl hitters by having a legitimate 3 pitch mix. He was able to keep those inexperienced hitters off his fastball. As he ascends I think his lack of velocity is going to increasingly limit his ability to miss bats, which in turn limits his upside a bit.

He's also still only 20, so I don't think it's safe to assume he's done adding velocity.

 

 

Are you sure Stewart wouldn't put up similar numbers in Low A?

 

I certainly have advocated pumping the brakes a little on Gonsalves. I like him and don't especially quibble with this placement considering the alternatives, but putting up numbers in a second go around in Low A doesn't move the needle a ton for me.

I mean, he threw 36 innings in Low A last year so calling this his "second go around" doesn't seem entirely fair. And this wasn't just putting up numbers. This was flat-out domination. 

 

[Shane Wahl]

I wasn't even thinking about Jay. That seems pretty high for him too, honestly! Kepler at 9 is a ridiculously high standard.

[Shane Wahl]

I am relieved, though, that it is clearly the case that Stewart is just out of the top 10.

[Mike Sixel]

Any LH with 3 legit pitches.....that guy is a top 10 prospect in any system. I expected a slow start in Ft Meyers, and by the end of the year for him to be good, but probably not great. Start next year there, and then move to AA after I whine for weeks that he should already be there.....

[tobi0040]

 

Are you sure Stewart wouldn't put up similar numbers in Low A?

 

 

I don't think Stewart would put up 81 K in 64 IP in Low A.  He only had 62 k in 87 IP last year. 

[drjim]

 

I don't think Stewart would put up 81 K in 64 IP in Low A.  He only had 62 k in 87 IP last year. 

 

Actually that strikes me as a very possible outcome for Stewart (barring injury). And Stewart, by all accounts I've read, has better raw stuff.

[tobi0040]

 

Actually that strikes me as a very possible outcome for Stewart (barring injury). And Stewart, by all accounts I've read, has better raw stuff.

 

But he simply hasn't missed bats.  I don't think repeating low A would bring Stewart from 6.5 K per 9 to 11.3.  That seems pretty dramatic.

 

Kohl's K per 9 is 4.5 in high A.  I guess I don't see low to high A being a 4.5 to 11.3 jump. 

 

[d-mac]

 

Part of it is that these rankings are based on more than this season's production alone. The other part is that we're looking at player types. All things being equal, you're going to value a guy who projects as a big LH starter that misses bats over a guy who projects to be a solid offensive corner OF.

 

 

He's also still only 20, so I don't think it's safe to assume he's done adding velocity.

 

 

I mean, he threw 36 innings in Low A last year so calling this his "second go around" doesn't seem entirely fair. And this wasn't just putting up numbers. This was flat-out domination. 

 

To your first point Nick, I say TINSTAAPP. Kepler is less than a year away and doesn't have as high of a risk of having a career altering injury. But I completely agree with the other points. 

 

[markos]

 

He's also still only 20, so I don't think it's safe to assume he's done adding velocity.

I think much of the recent research on pitching aging would argue otherwise. While the probability of him gaining velocity isn't zero, from (at least) age 21 onward, the average pitcher experiences a slow, steady decline in velocity over the rest of their career. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think much of the recent research on pitching aging would argue otherwise. While the probability of him gaining velocity isn't zero, from (at least) age 21 onward, the average pitcher experiences a slow, steady decline in velocity over the rest of their career. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

That might be true on average, I'm just not sure it is in this case. Gonsalves is a big kid who's still growing into his body. In any case, I think his velocity plays up because of his size and release point.

[gunnarthor]

I like Gonsalves but this is too high.  We're putting too much stock in numbers and not as much on scouting reports, which still question him.  But he's an exciting prospect.

[markos]

 

But he simply hasn't missed bats.  I don't think repeating low A would bring Stewart from 6.5 K per 9 to 11.3.  That seems pretty dramatic.

 

Kohl's K per 9 is 4.5 in high A.  I guess I don't see low to high A being a 4.5 to 11.3 jump. 

I say this tongue-in-cheek, but I have to disagree. It would appear from Gonsalves's performance that the low to high A difference is more of a 3.9 K/9 to 11.3 K/9 jump.