Big Day for Buxton/Lead-off hitter

[jimmer]

 

I'm sorry but that doesn't make sense. I intentionally used Nolasco because he has played in multiple leagues and for multiple teams. He has consistently underperformed what he should be doing on the field according to advanced metrics (as has Samardzija in three of his four seasons as a starter).

 

At that point, one of the following needs to be acknowledged:

 

1. Ricky Nolasco struggles in real-world situations, lowering his overall numbers

2. The metric is somewhat broken when applied to certain styles of players

 

Either way, it casts doubt on the ability of the metric to accurately predict the performance of that player.

I'm sorry it doesn't make sense to you.  It doesn't make sense to me to say that a stat that is dependent on many things outside of a pitcher's control is a better indicator of his performance than a stat that isn't.

[DaveW]

FIP sucks.

[jimmer]

 

I'm hesitant to say that about ERA but when we're talking about an MLB player with 4+ seasons under his belt, I often put more stock in ERA+ than I do FIP/xFIP.

I was using year to year info, not career FIP versus career ERA in my discussion.

[jimmer]

 

FIP sucks.

clearly that seem to be the common belief.

[DaveW]

 

 

I'm hesitant to say that about ERA but when we're talking about an MLB player with 4+ seasons under his belt, I often put more stock in ERA+ than I do FIP/xFIP.

Yeah, any pitcher with 3+ seasons and who is at least 27/28, ERA is where I am looking. Results matter. Some guys just frankly aren't hit as hard as other ones (even if they aren't striking out loads of guys)

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

'FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him, for example. Certain pitchers have shown an ability to consistently post lower ERAs than their FIP suggests, but overall FIP captures most pitchers’ true performance quite well.'

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

 

I understand what FIP is and what it is designed to do.  But when you have a guy that has recorded 2,700 outs in both leagues, across eight seasons for three teams.....the impact luck and defense kind of gets smoothed out.

 

Looking at a pitcher over a 1-3 year period that has pitched for the same team with roughly the same defenders behind him....that is more valuable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was using year to year info, not career FIP versus career ERA in my discussion.

Year to year, it gets a bit stickier because of the volatility of ERA and its relative small sample size per year... But my point about underperforming compared to advanced metrics stands. If a player routinely underperforms his year-to-year FIP, I'm going to be skeptical of its ability to accurately project that player's performance the following year.

[jimmer]

 

I understand what FIP is and what it is designed to do.  But when you have a guy that has recorded 2,700 outs in both leagues, across ten seasons for three teams.....the impact luck and defense kind of gets smoothed out.

over a career, like Maddux, ERA and FIP get real close.  One reason why is, over a career, a guys defense will be betetr some years and worse other.

 

 Jeff S has less than 800 innings as a starter.  And I was using year to year FIP, not a career FIP versus career ERA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm sorry it doesn't make sense to you.  It doesn't make sense to me to say that a stat that is dependent on many things outside of a pitcher's control is a better indicator of his performance than a stat that isn't.

Because the latter assumes that a pitcher is the same guy with the same odds against every batter in every situation.

 

Look at Mike Pelfrey's former inability to pitch from the stretch. That's a real thing that happened and neither FIP nor xFIP can account for it. Did it affect his performance? Of course it did. That's a big problem for a pitcher.

 

Now that won't apply to most players, which is why I'm not discounting FIP/xFIP entirely... But if you see a trend in 5+ years of a player's career where something is always off in his advanced metrics, alarm bells should start going off.

 

I hate to use such a dumb phrase but it rings true here... "These guys aren't robots". There could be something as simple as tipping pitches that consistently throws FIP/xFIP out of whack for any single pitcher in MLB.

[jimmer]

 

Year to year, it gets a bit stickier because of the volatility of ERA and its relative small sample size per year... But my point about underperforming compared to advanced metrics stands. If a player routinely underperforms his year-to-year FIP, I'm going to be skeptical of its ability to accurately project that player's performance the following year.

Again, and I'm sorry to rehash this, but if you say a guy is under--performing because his ERA is higher than his FIP, then that assumes ERA is a better indicator of performance  That's the crux of our discussion. Jeff S doesn't have 3000 IP as a starter.  He has less than 750. When his career finishes, I wouldn't be surprised if his FIP and ERA where much closer.

[tobi0040]

 

over a career, like Maddux, ERA and FIP get real close.  One reason why is, over a career, a guys defense will be betetr some years and worse other.

 

 Jeff S has less than 800 innings as a starter.  And I was using year to year FIP, not a career FIP versus career ERA.

 

At the end of the day we just disagree at what point it becomes less useful.   I think 800 IP, 2,400 outs is enough to form an opinion.

 

I would also say that it won't always get very close.  Nolan Ryan pitched 27 seasons and his .20 gap is roughly the same as Jeff S.

[jimmer]

 

At the end of the day we just disagree at what point it becomes less useful.   I think 800 IP, 2,400 outs is enough to form an opinion.

 

I would also say that it won't always get very close.  Nolan Ryan pitched 27 seasons and his .20 gap is roughly the same as Jeff S.

.20 isn't that big of a gap. .22 isn't that big of a gap which is what Jeff's is for his career.  Also make me wonder why people are saying how he has so dramatically under-performed to his FIP.  .22?

[jimbo92107]

 

Jeff S. maybe the most over-rated pitcher in the league.  His ERA this year is 4.67. Career just under 4.00.  Yet the guy is getting traded every year for top talent and people speak as if he is a top 10 pitcher.

I'm just saying that he's a rightie, and he's better than Danks. If Buxton gets a hit or two off him, that's even more impressive than yesterday. Heck, we didn't know the kid could hit his weight before that...

[big dog]

Meanwhile, to return the talk to Buxton...

 

Happy to watch him run last night.  I don't think batting him leadoff made him better.  As others have said, batting against Danks made him better.  Ditto for Vargas.  Last night was a unicorn until it happens again.  And I sure hope it does.  Tonight would be a good time for it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

.20 isn't that big of a gap. .22 isn't that big of a gap which is what Jeff's is for his career.  Also make me wonder why people are saying how he has so dramatically under-performed to his FIP.  .22?

In my opinion, what I find most telling about Samardzija is that he has routinely underperformed his FIP by .45 or greater. Last season he overperformed it a touch, which has balanced his career number a bit. He also overperformed it during his career as a reliever, which is skewing the overall number.

 

Two times in the past four seasons, his xFIP has been nearly a run lower than his ERA. In another season, it was nearly half a run lower. Only last season - the season when the hype around him started to swell - did he actually overperform his FIP/xFIP.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In Samardija's career as a starter, here are his numbers:

 

ERA: 3.96

FIP: 3.65

xFIP: 3.44

 

It's not an enormous gap but it should be noted that a gap exists.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True regarding Santana.  But Jeff S. actually turned down 5-85.  I am guessing the best deal that Ervin ever saw was the 4-55 we gave him.

He did turn that down in rumor, although that was a year ago and we really don't know the details.  He might actually come close to that if he winds up with an Ervin Santana type deal plus his 2015 arbitration award.

 

Still doesn't suggest he's really overrated -- yet.

[jimmer]

 

In Samardija's career as a starter, here are his numbers:

 

ERA: 3.96

FIP: 3.65

xFIP: 3.44

 

It's not an enormous gap but it should be noted that a gap exists.

Jeff S is not unique in that regard. A gap will exist for every pitcher, if only because ERA is affected by team defense and official scorers, amongst other things.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Meanwhile, to return the talk to Buxton...

 

Happy to watch him run last night.  I don't think batting him leadoff made him better.  As others have said, batting against Danks made him better.  Ditto for Vargas.  Last night was a unicorn until it happens again.  And I sure hope it does.  Tonight would be a good time for it.

THANK YOU!  I was wondering when this was returning to the subject I created

 

I agree:  batting leadoff didn't make Buxton better.  It's the time Molitor, Brunansky and SomeOtherGuyICan'tRemember took to work him into a lineup position that typically has less pressure on a player.  They worked him through a series of AB's, gave advice/made corrections.  A couple (?) games ago, Buxton walked twice.  That's a pretty big deal:  pitch recognition.  Hitting against Danks was great timing, and not just for Buxton.  Not an overly brilliant move, but I'm thinking Molitor saw it as a chance to:

1.  get Buxton quality AB's against a pitcher that's struggling

2.  try to ignite the offense 

3.  pat on the back to Buxton for hanging in, learning and developing

 

It'll be great to see how he handles his next challenge in Samardzija

[Brock Beauchamp]

Jeff S is not unique in that regard. A gap will exist for every pitcher, if only because ERA is affected by team defense and official scorers, amongst other things.

True, but that's more likely to happen to a player who plays in the same stadium for the same team (with the same defensive strengths/weaknesses) for a prolonged period of time. The more a player jumps around, the less likely that is to happen.

[DaveW]

As much fun as it is to debate xFIP vs ERA vs FIP vs BA vs BABIP vs RF vs UZR vs Non refundable Boom Daddy's to the chin, can we have a cut off point of 30 posts in any given thread? Once you hit that threshold you have to go back to the topic at hand? Jeff Shashhdyashyenaskesauiemsarmismrgia's career and future FIP, xFIP and even his career ERA have little to do with the thread at hand. Less than 2% of Buxton's at bats this year will likely even come against Jeff Xylophoneviagragia anyways.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gesundheit.

[jimmer]

 

True, but that's more likely to happen to a player who plays in the same stadium for the same team (with the same defensive strengths/weaknesses) for a prolonged period of time. The more a player jumps around, the less likely that is to happen.

It happens to every pitcher every year.  I have yet to see a pitcher's ERA and FIP match at the end of the year. Is there a SP this year that doesn't have a gap at all between FIP and ERA?  Is there a pitcher over his career that has a FIP-ERA match? There's always going to be a gap, and there should be due to the nature of the stats.

 

It's not because a players jumps from team to team that causes the gap to close, it's due to more and more innings, unless we assume just because a guys defense is bad for one team it will be good on the other or vice-verus

[DaveW]

It wouldn't be a big deal if the two threads weren't merged, thus sparing the rest of us who really don't want to continually have to go down the rabbit whole of people's personal opinions on the worthiness of stats, but when it is merged it gets to be a little overwhelming.

Personally, I would add "discussions on FIP, xFIP vs ERA" to the list of things you shouldn't discuss in a bar, right next to religion and politics.

[jimmer]

Fair enough, Dave.  I'm done.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dave has a point. I absolutely hate to admit it when Dave has a point so there's that.

 

We've all had our say. Let's get the thread back on the topic of Mark De Rosa.

 

I mean Byron Buxton.

[DaveW]

 

Dave has a point. I absolutely hate to admit it when Dave has a point so there's that.

We've all had our say. Let's get the thread back on the topic of Mark De Rosa.

I mean Byron Buxton.

You jest but you bring up a good point, if they signed Mark DeRosa they could be the first team in ML history to feature a 2 man defense and 7 DH's.

[stringer bell]

Back to Buxton. Does anyone know if he had appreciable platoon splits in the minors? I suspect that he didn't, but slider off the outside corner seemed to trouble him a bit so far.

[stringer bell]

 

 

It wouldn't be a big deal if the two threads weren't merged, thus sparing the rest of us who really don't want to continually have to go down the rabbit whole of people's personal opinions on the worthiness of stats, but when it is merged it gets to be a little overwhelming.

Personally, I would add "discussions on FIP, xFIP vs ERA" to the list of things you shouldn't discuss in a bar, right next to religion and politics.

Maybe pin it and if people want to argue about it, they could go to that thread.

[jokin]

 

True regarding Santana.  But Jeff S. actually turned down 5-85.  I am guessing the best deal that Ervin ever saw was the 4-55 we gave him.

 

You definitely got that right.