Rand: Byron Buxton and the Paradox of Potential

[Seth Stohs]

This Michael Rand article is equal parts way over my head and very interesting. There are several paradoxes that he references in the article. One late in the article is quite interesting:

 

 

We’re past potential now, into the dirty world of reality. If Buxton is as great as we all believe he will be, he will fail thousands of times. If he’s less than great, he won’t get the chance to fail as much. If that’s not a lesson that failing doesn’t make you a failure, I don’t know what is.

 

I also agree whole-heartedly with his conclusion:

 

 

The only failure is being to scared to try. I just hope we can try to push aside the fear and enjoy watching Buxton become whatever he is.

 

[Craig Arko]

Good job, Michael. That's the big picture view.

 

For Byron, even if he doesn't turn out to be Superman (and there's no reason to think he can't), he should still be able to build a fine career as The Flash. And then go mow the lawn afterwards.

[Oldgoat_MN]

A fun article with a wise message:

 

Patience.

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I'm with you, Seth!  Although when it comes to the Rand articles, I'm more on the "insufferable gas-bag" side than the "he's over my head" side

 

Buxton is what he is:  physically talented and listed as a "5-tool" talent.  Problem is:  these 2 things do not always lead to baseball success.  Two names:  Kirby Puckett and Harmon Killebrew. IF Buxton pans out, he could be the next Lyman Bostock. 

 

The Buxton flip side:  Do not forget:  he was an emergency call up because Paul Molitor was essentially down to a single bench player.  And, yes, Buxton showed progress over the past few weeks.  In the non-emergency world of baseball, Buxton would have earned a promotion to AAA.  What I have seen in videos of his AB's at AA and yesterday, he still has that tap tap thing going.  Martinez took advantage in his first AB ending it with a breaking ball [slider] down and out of the strikezone. 

 

Right now, as a MLB player, Buxton is closer to Hicks 2.0 than Bostock.  He'll get ample AB's in MLB to get a better read on his hitting skills, but I'm expecting a return to AA in a couple weeks.  Work on that bizarre tap tap thing, smooth it out and target and late July move to AAA and a Sept call up.

[Platoon]

Buxton is like a new car, motorcycle, boat, house, or job you have dreamed of having. From the day you acquired the "object", it's interest and intrigue have diminished. Familialarity does not have to breed contempt, it can just breed more familiarity! Buxton, like Mauer will never again have the value to the salivating Twins fan as he did before yesterday. His warts, and he will have some, will be exposed. The same instant media presence which adjudged him to be the second coming of a biblical icon, will be the same instant media which will point out his failures! (Instantly) Social medias effect on how we are viewed causes decisions and judgements to be short term based. Taking the long view is sadly a forgotten trait. Very sadly!

[Steven Buhr]

Buxton should never return to the minors. He should be allowed those early failures at the big league level.

 

At almost every level, he has taken his lumps early as he sees a new, higher, level of pitching. But he has always successfully adapted. He'll get fooled for a while, as he did more than once in his first game. But he adjusts. He always adjusts. He will adjust to Major League pitching. It would be foolish to send him down, regardless of whether it's AA or AAA, before he's completed making those adjustments.

 

Rand is right. His early failures will be met with instant cries of anguish and anger via social media. It's the way things work now. Fortunately, the Twins tend to ignore that kind of thing when making their decisions.

[Mike Sixel]

why do people care all the much what other people say about the Twins or Buxton? I mean, if we are here talking, let's talk......but why does anyone care if the national media likes the Twins, or other fans do, or any of that stuff? I don't get it.....

 

Expecting greatness is a mistake......because greatness rarely happens. But, I wouldn't be surprised by eventual greatness.

[DuluthFan]

 

Buxton should never return to the minors. He should be allowed those early failures at the big league level.

 

At almost every level, he has taken his lumps early as he sees a new, higher, level of pitching. But he has always successfully adapted. He'll get fooled for a while, as he did more than once in his first game. But he adjusts. He always adjusts. He will adjust to Major League pitching. It would be foolish to send him down, regardless of whether it's AA or AAA, before he's completed making those adjustments.

 

Rand is right. His early failures will be met with instant cries of anguish and anger via social media. It's the way things work now. Fortunately, the Twins tend to ignore that kind of thing when making their decisions.

 

Just because he was able to adjust at the lower minor league levels doesn't mean he will be able to adjust at the major league level. The Aaron Hicks promotion is proof that that is not always the case. The minor leagues are the place to learn how to make adjustments, to hone your skills, to develop into a major league player. Doing it at the major league level comes with more risk. Playing against major league talent is different than playing against players still learning the game. Those triples Buxton hit against AA talent may not find the gaps against major league talent. The major league players will know how to position themselves to cut off some of those balls.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buxton should never return to the minors. He should be allowed those early failures at the big league level.

There is nothing wrong with making a return trip to the minors.  Trout did it.  It's one of the reasons I might like to see Sano soon too -- it can help the team see what they have in the player (can they contribute this year?), and helps the player see what they have to do to succeed in MLB.

 

Obviously, any return trips to the minors should be done judiciously.

[stringer bell]

I suspect Buxton will struggle to hit. He should hit for a high enough average because he will beat out a bunch of infield hits and then hit mistakes. Let him hit ninth until he's really rolling.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I expect him to struggle a bit (so far he has), but I also think that since they called him up, he gets an extended trial.  I would not send him back down this season (not to mention that he's not really being blocked by anyone either). 

[bird]

I don't think Rand is describing anything that's terribly unique to his generation or the half-generation behind him. Social media exposes fans and their expectations, and often makes folly of fans' impatience, among other traits. When a player succeeds, we get the clamor to call him up or promote him, often garnished with harsh criticism directed at the front office. The same goes for failure: trade the chump, send him down, etc. But when we pause and reflect, how often do we find that whatever failings or success we got all worked up about were actually sustained, but simply at a more moderate level?

 

I'm going to take Rand's advice from the last sentence and sit back and enjoy whatever ride these new guys give me, and my hunch is it's going to be good enough. Buxton has been a baseball pleasure, failures and all.