Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[spinowner]

 

I don't understand how having him DH from July on hurts his long term development permanently, I just don't understand that. Plus, I think everyone would agree that a game a week at 3B would make sense also......though I'd still move him to 1B now.....

I don't think it would hurt his development permanently. But after missing all last year I think the Twins feel it's highly important for him to play 3B as much as possible just to try to make up for lost time. I don't think the Twins want to spend time and effort having him learn 1B with Vargas, Kepler and ABWII all potentially playing there in the future. And how much of a difference would DHing Sano really make for the Twins this season? I highly doubt his presence would increase the team's win total more than 1 or 2 over a 2-3 month period, and given how rookies frequently struggle at first it could easily cost the team a couple wins. I think the best course is to have him play 3B every day in AA or AAA until the time comes to play there in the majors. What we hope for is for him to force the Twins' hand, like when Morneau forced the Twins to move Mientkiewicz out.

[jokin]

Yup.  Team control, we are long past, at least until May 2016.  And we should be past Super 2 now too, hence the Correa call-up.

 

Sano is the particularly vexing one.  He lost a season last year, but he's already on the 40-man so it costs us very little to call him up this season.  He's also slightly older than Buxton with a lot more pro experience.  He should be in a position to be called up any day now -- if not to MLB today, then at least see how he adapts to a AAA promotion right now, with an eye toward MLB.  Waiting until midseason for AAA and/or September for MLB just doesn't make sense for him.

Yep, way back upthread, the Fangraphs article is cited showing how Correia's chances for Super 2 are now between 0.0% and 0.1%. So for Sano and Buxton this is not an issue. (Arcia is about a week from certainty).

 

At worst, Sano should be batting right before, or right after, Arcia in Rochester within a week or so. Let them share DH and OF duties, and may the best man win the Twins roster spot sweepstakes (deadline ASG break?).

[Mike Sixel]

If Sano helps by 2 wins, and Buxton by 2 wins, and anyone but Stauffer and Duensing adds 2 wins, and and and.....that's how you win, by adding wins at many positions.

[jokin]

I think the best course is to have him play 3B every day in AA or AAA until the time comes to play there in the majors.

 

What we hope for is for him to force the Twins' hand, like when Morneau forced the Twins to move Mientkiewicz out.

 

 

Sano's recent play, and the Twins lack of hitting, is effectively forcing the Twins hand now. And Plouffe has a better hit tool than Dougie, plus he's likely a better glove than Sano. What if the "time to play there in the majors" doesn't come until Plouffe is a Free Agent? Would "we" be willing to wait until 2018?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And how much of a difference would DHing Sano really make for the Twins this season? I highly doubt his presence would increase the team's win total more than 1 or 2 over a 2-3 month period

This could be said about almost any player.  Plouffe was a 3.6-3.9 WAR player last year, which is 1 or 2 wins over a 2-3 month period.  (And indeed he's been worth 1.3-1.7 WAR over this season's first 2 months.) 

 

We need more contributors on that level in our lineup. We've got 4 regulars around zero WAR right now, could be 5 if you don't like Hunter's defense, and that's still not counting Rosario or Hicks who aren't out of the woods yet (currently performing at prorated 1.2-2.4 season WAR paces).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

At worst, Sano should be batting right before, or right after, Arcia in Rochester within a week or so. Let them share DH and OF duties, and may the best man win the Twins roster spot sweepstakes (deadline ASG break?).

Why not let Sano continue to play 3B in Rochester?  Ryan Wheeler can take a seat or shift around the field instead.

 

I don't think we really need Sano in the OF right now, particularly since he's behind Buxton in that line.  And not messing with his defensive position seems like it would make the smoothest transition.

[spinowner]

 

If Sano helps by 2 wins, and Buxton by 2 wins, and anyone but Stauffer and Duensing adds 2 wins, and and and.....that's how you win, by adding wins at many positions.

Those are some extremely optimistic ifs. Unrealistically optimistic, IMHO. Each of those ifs could just as easily be subtractions of 2 wins, and in the AL Central this year that could mean a fast ride to last place.

 

[tobi0040]

 

Why not let Sano continue to play 3B in Rochester?  Ryan Wheeler can take a seat or shift around the field instead.

 

I don't think we really need Sano in the OF right now, particularly since he's behind Buxton in that line.  And not messing with his defensive position seems like it would make the smoothest transition.

 

I would be okay cutting his minor league season about 30 games short to DH with the Twins.  Or 60 games short if he plays 3B in winter ball.

 

That means he is up close to now if he plays winter ball, the first week or July

[SwainZag]

 

Sano's recent play, and the Twins lack of hitting, is effectively forcing the Twins hand now. And Plouffe has a better hit tool than Dougie, plus he's likely a better glove than Sano. What if the "time to play there in the majors" doesn't come until Plouffe is a Free Agent? Would "we" be willing to wait until 2018?

 

If we were in late August and Sano was raking in AAA and the Twins really needed a bat for the stretch run I would say that would be forcing their hand.  It's the 2nd week of June.  

[Kwak]

 

True, but we are really close to that day.  We may already be past it.

I meant in the 2016 season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Those are some extremely optimistic ifs. Unrealistically optimistic, IMHO. Each of those ifs could just as easily be subtractions of 2 wins, and in the AL Central this year that could mean a fast ride to last place.

Point is, you can't dismiss any one of those potentialities as "only 1 or 2 extra wins"

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would be okay cutting his minor league season about 30 games short to DH with the Twins.  Or 60 games short if he plays 3B in winter ball.

 

That means he is up close to now if he plays winter ball, the first week or July

Good point about winter ball, and the early end to the minor league season.  July 1st isn't a bad target, but I'd err on the side of earlier rather than later, so if he doesn't have instant success, he's got some time to adjust (either in MLB or back in AAA).

[jokin]

If we were in late August and Sano was raking in AAA and the Twins really needed a bat for the stretch run I would say that would be forcing their hand.  It's the 2nd week of June.

And the Twins are in the thick of the pennant race, despite only 2, maybe 3, quality hitters. Their hand is being forced as we speak- IF, they want to take their best shot at gaining a post-season berth.

[jokin]

Why not let Sano continue to play 3B in Rochester?  Ryan Wheeler can take a seat or shift around the field instead.

 

I don't think we really need Sano in the OF right now, particularly since he's behind Buxton in that line.  And not messing with his defensive position seems like it would make the smoothest transition.

So you're ready to move to another position/bench/jettison Plouffe, then?

[jokin]

Those are some extremely optimistic ifs. Unrealistically optimistic, IMHO. Each of those ifs could just as easily be subtractions of 2 wins, and in the AL Central this year that could mean a fast ride to last place.

If you don't think Sano could possibly be a a 2 WAR player over the last 3.5 months of the season, there's really nothing to debate. Most of the rest of us can easily forsee that potential level of contribution from the #6 ranked prospect. And what's the downside if the Twins are forced to pull the plug on him after a 15 game tryout?

[tobi0040]

 

If you don't think Sano could possibly be a a 2 WAR player over the last 3.5 months of the season, there's really nothing to debate. Most of the rest of us can easily forsee that potential level of contribution from the #6 ranked prospect. And what's the downside if the Twins are forced to pull the plug on him after a 15 game tryout?

 

Well, a 2 WAR player is one thing.  2 additional WAR over Trevor  Plouffe at 22 is another.  TP is at 1.7 already this year.  

 

If he is the DH, that is a tougher positon to accumulate WAR but could be possible given what we have there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So you're ready to move to another position/bench/jettison Plouffe, then?

Sano could DH most days, and play 3B on the days Plouffe or Mauer are off (which should be frequent in the latter case).

 

If we give Vargas a few more weeks and he claims the spot, then I suppose you could throw Sano into RF for a few games -- by that point, our lineup would feel like the '27 Yankees compared to now, so who cares?  But I don't know if that's super-likely, so I wouldn't mess with Sano's position yet with that expectation.  (Just like I wouldn't mess with Plouffe's under the assumption that Sano will instantly hit and be able to stick at 3B)

[jokin]

Well, a 2 WAR player is one thing.  2 additional WAR over Trevor  Plouffe at 22 is another.  TP is at 1.7 already this year.  

 

If he is the DH, that is a tougher positon to accumulate WAR but could be possible given what we have there.

Very few are suggesting that Plouffe be jettisoned in place of Sano. I think we're talking about Sano adding 2 WAR over the status quo. As of now, there are 3 guys in the lineup with positive WAR (Rosario and Hicks are right at +/- replacement level on minimum reps).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If he is the DH, that is a tougher positon to accumulate WAR but could be possible given what we have there.

Kennys Vargas solid but unspectacular 2014 performance at DH was 1-1.5 WAR prorated to 3.5 months.  Given his pedigree, Sano probably has a fair chance of matching that (if not exceeding it) -- and more importantly, sustaining it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kennys Vargas solid but unspectacular 2014 performance at DH was 1-1.5 WAR prorated to 3.5 months.  Given his pedigree, Sano probably has a fair chance of matching that (if not exceeding it) -- and more importantly, sustaining it.

 

And their current DHs can't even manage replacement level........

[jokin]

Sano could DH most days, and play 3B on the days Plouffe or Mauer are off (which should be frequent in the latter case).

 

If we give Vargas a few more weeks and he claims the spot, then I suppose you could throw Sano into RF for a few games -- by that point, our lineup would feel like the '27 Yankees compared to now, so who cares?  But I don't know if that's super-likely, so I wouldn't mess with Sano's position yet with that expectation.  (Just like I wouldn't mess with Plouffe's under the assumption that Sano will instantly hit and be able to stick at 3B)

The Twins seem pretty insistent that Plouffe is their 3rd baseman and Sano "isn't ready". It's hard to see them trading Plouffe before the deadline, almost about as much as it's hard to see them cut back on Mauer's time (plus he's still decent vs. LHP). Hunter has dictated his own spot in RF from the day of his signing.

 

That amounts to some serious blockage.

[GoGonzoJournal]

 

Huh?  I don't mind Hicks at the moment, but he's got the same OPS and ISO that he posted last year, for a 73 OPS+.  Hopefully those things starting moving up with a better approach, but he hasn't locked down anything, and he certainly should not be an impediment to Buxton at this point (especially with uncertainty in both corners -- can Rosario keep it up, and how often should Hunter play the field).

 

Hicks as 4th OF (still getting a lot of starts) would be a real sign of strength and improvement for our OF and on our team.  As it is, we've still been giving a lot of OF starts to Escobar and even some to Robinson (who is batting .088 the past month).

I meant defensively locked down center field. He's taking great routes and making plays. Makes it easier to put Hunter in right and platoon left.

[jokin]

I meant defensively locked down center field. He's taking great routes and making plays. Makes it easier to put Hunter in right and platoon left.

Hicks has really bought time for Buxton to continue to get his groove back and stabilized the OF defense. He has improved defensively at nearly every facet, but his reads and routes for balls over his head still leave something to be desired.

[spinowner]

 

Hicks has really bought time for Buxton to continue to get his groove back and stabilized the OF defense. He has improved defensively at nearly every facet, but his reads and routes for balls over his head still leave something to be desired.

Baseball people will tell you balls hit straight over the head of an outfielder are the most difficult ones to judge. I give Hicks (and almost everyone else) the benefit of doubt on those.

[jharaldson]

When Albert Pujols came up with the Cardinals they didn't hold him back because the perfect position with the perfect timing wasn't ready.  They saw the value in his bat and played him all over the place with starts in LF/RF/1B/3B.  If a model organization like Cardinals can do that I see no reason why the Twins can't.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B&type=&gds=&gde=&season=2001

[spinowner]

 

When Albert Pujols came up with the Cardinals they didn't hold him back because the perfect position with the perfect timing wasn't ready.  They saw the value in his bat and played him all over the place with starts in LF/RF/1B/3B.  If a model organization like Cardinals can do that I see no reason why the Twins can't.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B&type=&gds=&gde=&season=2001

But Pujols was ready for the majors. Most baseball people say that after missing a year Sano isn't yet. 

[jokin]

Baseball people will tell you balls hit straight over the head of an outfielder are the most difficult ones to judge. I give Hicks (and almost everyone else) the benefit of doubt on those.

Yes. this ability is one of the chief criteria in separating the mediocre and good CFs from the elite ones. Buxton has it, Hicks, not so much.

[Hrbowski]

 

Yes. this ability is one of the chief criteria in separating the mediocre and good CFs from the elite ones. Buxton has it, Hicks, not so much.

Hicks has actually done a better job than most center fielders on fly balls hit over his head, but he has had trouble on deep line drives, but a lot of center fielders do.

[jokin]

But Pujols was ready for the majors. Most baseball people say that after missing a year Sano isn't yet.

Already discussed Pujols upthread. Pujols was promoted after stints at A, A+ and then a very brief stay at AAA, all in one season, Sano has produced equivalent or superior numbers at the first two levels. Only way to find out for sure one way or another if Sano is ready, is to get him up to the Twins.

[jokin]

Hicks has actually done a better job than most center fielders on fly balls hit over his head, but he has had trouble on deep line drives, but a lot of center fielders do.

No way to state that with certainty. Based on the eye test, he's never impressed me as being better than "most CF on FBs over his head", but he's certainly better than most other recent Twins CFers, for sure! And again, he's not nearly as good as Buxton in this area.