Miguel Sano How Soon Is Now?

[drjim]

 

Calling up a guy who has never played in the OF to play RF in the majors solely to use his bat while meanwhile taking away his every day reps at 3B would be a mistake IMO.  

 

It would be the exact same path that Miggy Cabrera took. Sano's bat is always going to far exceed his glove. Get it up to the bigs the rest of the year, let him play 3B again in winter ball, figure it out going forward.

 

I want as many reps at 3B as possible until he makes the majors, then you can figure it out.

[jokin]

 

 

I think it's important to note, if at season-end the Twins think Sano's fully healthy and not too fatigued, he can get plenty of 3B reps in winter ball to stay sharp at the position.

[jokin]

It would be the exact same path that Miggy Cabrera took. Sano's bat is always going to far exceed his glove. Get it up to the bigs the rest of the year, let him play 3B again in winter ball, figure it out going forward.

 

I want as many reps at 3B as possible until he makes the majors, then you can figure it out.

simultaneous thought about winter ball... scary

[drjim]

 

simultaneous thought about winter ball... scary

 

Really scary that the two of us are on the same wavelength on anything.

[dbminn]

Here are the 2014-15 stats of hot prospects brought to the majors this year. Each had many more plate appearances than Buxton or Sano prior to reaching the majors. They also have had success at each level. If you want to rush Sano and Buxton, that's fine. It just seems MLB management teams think it's better for development if they spend a bit of time at AA/AAA.

 

Joc Pederson

2014: AAA  553 PA .303/.435/.582

          MLB    38 PA .143/.351/.143

2015: MLB  240 PA .253/.377/.566

 

Kris Bryant

2014:   AA  297 PA .355/.458/.702

          AAA  297 PA .295/.418/.619

2015: AAA    33 PA .321/.364/.679

          MLB 208  PA .282/.389/.471

 

Carlos Correa

2014:   A+   293 PA .325/.416/.510

2015:   AA   133 PA .385/.459/.726

          AAA  113  PA .276/.345/.449

 

(Also, Joey Gallo had 437 PA at AA before being called up.)

[tobi0040]

As part of the Sano to RF now crowd, we will have to factor Sano vs. Rosario right now in RF.  Eddie is currently sitting at a .751 OPS and 106 OPS+.  He is a former CF, so he has to be a meaningful defensive upgrade over Sano who has never played there.

 

Next year is a different story with some practice.  The gap should be smaller than I think it is right now.

[jokin]

As part of the Sano to RF now crowd, we will have to factor Sano vs. Rosario right now in RF.  Eddie is currently sitting at a .751 OPS and 106 OPS+.  He is a former CF, so he has to be a meaningful defensive upgrade over Sano who has never played there.

 

Next year is a different story with some practice.  The gap should be smaller than I think it is right now.

Kind of a moot point right now, what with Escobar going back to the IF, Rosario is in high LF clover for now. If and until Buxton is called up- he's likely going to be there most nights, and then moving over for Hunter once or twice a week- and then at that point, they will have to make a decision on Hicks and the veterans- at this point it seems like LF is Rosario's position to lose.

[tobi0040]

 

Kind of a moot point right now, what with Escobar going back to the IF, Rosario is in high LF clover for now. If and until Buxton is called up- he's likely going to be there most nights, and then moving over for Hunter once or twice a week- and then at that point, they will have to make a decision on Hicks and the veterans- at this point it seems like LF is Rosario's position to lose.

 

My overall point is Sano to the outfield right now means that position is getting worse defensively.  That needs to be part of the analysis.  And I would even say that if Sano was to replace Arcia or Hunter, right now that would mean a step back. 

[jokin]

My overall point is Sano to the outfield right now means that position is getting worse defensively.  That needs to be part of the analysis.  And I would even say that if Sano was to replace Arcia or Hunter, right now that would mean a step back.

No doubt about Hunter. But Hunter soon turns 40, and might benefit quite a bit from a 60-40 or even a 50-50 split between RF and DH the rest of the way. Even as a newcomer, it's hard to imagine a former SS could be worse than Arcia in RF, especially if they start giving him reps in Chattanooga right away. AS for Arcia, he was a mess in LF, for now, and especially with his batting slump, it seems clear he's got a long way to go to ever claim back either LF or RF in 2015..

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here are the 2014-15 stats of hot prospects brought to the majors this year. Each had many more plate appearances than Buxton or Sano prior to reaching the majors. They also have had success at each level. If you want to rush Sano and Buxton, that's fine. It just seems MLB management teams think it's better for development if they spend a bit of time at AA/AAA.

We all know why Bryant's path to MLB was slow, and it didn't have much to do with his development as a player.  And Pederson's was slowed by a very crowded (and expensive) Dodger outfield.

 

Sano now has 482 PA at the AA level, more than Gallo, Bryant, and Correa, and virtually the same as Pederson (519 PA).  Maybe he's not ready to jump to MLB but if not, he should be in AAA very soon, no?

[HitInAPinch]

 

That strong difference in opinion is why it's probably worth exploring and finding out. ZiPS has a strong predictive track record and projected that in 400 PAs, Sano would hit 20 HR, OPS @ .730, with an OPS+ of 100. I think it's worth finding out which opinion is correct.

Aren't those stats based strictly on MiLB stats?  Unless there is a way to adjust to MLB pitching, those stats seem pretty irrelevant.

 

There was one story [sorry, can't find that column again] on Sano's spring training BP homers.  They were of minor league pitchers.  A coach ordered Gibson in and Sano didn't get another hit.  That's why I'm more of a mind to find out in AAA and fix there.  If it's even necessary.

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the subject of Gallo, who came up after Beltre's injury -- what happens if Plouffe gets hurt and requires a DL stint?

 

Looking at the 40-man roster, I think I'd bring up Sano to fill the spot, even just temporarily.  (And based on that, I think he should be up in AAA soon and in consideration for the MLB DH job shortly thereafter.)

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Here's the best part:

 

Miguel Sano Min - 3B,SS

 

6' 4" 260lbs of Short Stop.  Can't wait for the Sports Center video of him turning a DP

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

On the subject of Gallo, who came up after Beltre's injury -- what happens if Plouffe gets hurt and requires a DL stint?

 

Looking at the 40-man roster, I think I'd bring up Sano to fill the spot, even just temporarily.  (And based on that, I think he should be up in AAA soon and in consideration for the MLB DH job shortly thereafter.)

 

Great point......I agree completely. My guess is they'd move Escobar to 3B, and call up a SS.......which would make me sad (if baseball actually made me sad).

[jokin]

Aren't those stats based strictly on MiLB stats?  Unless there is a way to adjust to MLB pitching, those stats seem pretty irrelevant.

 

There was one story [sorry, can't find that column again] on Sano's spring training BP homers.  They were of minor league pitchers.  A coach ordered Gibson in and Sano didn't get another hit.  That's why I'm more of a mind to find out in AAA and fix there.  If it's even necessary.

Those are the MLB projections based on a large set of historical data points. It's speculative, but not "pretty irrelavant". I think people aren't used to the much different level of potential impact that could come from such a unique high-level prospect, this isn't Arcia, Vargas, or even Dozier. This is quite likely a generational type unique talent, well worth finding out if he's ready sooner rather than later. Plu,s there is an added sense of urgency that could really yield a big, early payoff if he finds some early success.

 

I really don't see the downside if the experiment fails.

[jokin]

Great point......I agree completely. My guess is they'd move Escobar to 3B, and call up a SS.......which would make me sad (if baseball actually made me sad).

No question in my mind, in this scenario it would be either Polanco or more likely, Bernier at SS with Esco sliding over to 3rd (sigh).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No question in my mind, in this scenario it would be either Polanco or more likely, Bernier at SS with Esco sliding over to 3rd (sigh).

I would guess Santana back to SS, with Escobar/Nunez at 3B.  But Sano would have a great case, especially since he is already on the 40-man roster and already using an option year.

[Vanimal46]

 

Deadline next year....what do you do with Sano until then?

 

Let Sano find his way into the lineup. Best thing the Twins can do is not hand over a starting job on a platter. If he starts raking on the MLB team, he will force his way into the lineup as a 3B, RF, DH, or 1B option.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let Sano find his way into the lineup. Best thing the Twins can do is not hand over a starting job on a platter. If he starts raking on the MLB team, he will force his way into the lineup as a 3B, RF, DH, or 1B option.

 

Not if he never plays OF in the minors.....or 1B in the minors....that's kind of our point. His value is tied to his BAT, imo Plouffe is good at his job, they should be looking at what else Sano could do, and training him for that.

[Seth Stohs]

 

For the record, though, I've been on the "bring Buxton and Sano up now" bandwagon since spring training, so I'm among the "crazy" crowd.

 

But we knew that... 

[jokin]

I would guess Santana back to SS, with Escobar/Nunez at 3B.  But Sano would have a great case, especially since he is already on the 40-man roster and already using an option year.

Santana could be the one to come back, but I was on the working assumption if this scenario were to happen right now. And right now, Santana is an absolute mess at the plate. I'm guessing that it's going to take some time for some serious repair work in Rochester to get his bat back to any semblance of his 2014 bat.

[jorgenswest]

Sano's transition to the majors will likely be more rocky than Buxton's. Buxton will contribute with his defense and speed day 1. His legs will get him on base even if he struggles at the plate. Sano is all about the bat. He might struggle to hit 200 but he would contribute power and walks.

[TheLeviathan]

Plouffe shouldn't be replaced, but his recent slide should put a little more doubt about how locked into 3B he really is.  Or just how committed we should be to keeping him.

[jokin]

Sano's transition to the majors will likely be more rocky than Buxton's. Buxton will contribute with his defense and speed day 1. His legs will get him on base even if he struggles at the plate. Sano is all about the bat. He might struggle to hit 200 but he would contribute power and walks.

Power and Walks are two areas where the Twins are sorely deficient.

[dbminn]

 

We all know why Bryant's path to MLB was slow, and it didn't have much to do with his development as a player.  And Pederson's was slowed by a very crowded (and expensive) Dodger outfield.

 

Sano now has 482 PA at the AA level, more than Gallo, Bryant, and Correa, and virtually the same as Pederson (519 PA).  Maybe he's not ready to jump to MLB but if not, he should be in AAA very soon, no?

 

Yes, Sano will probably move to AAA after the Southern League All-Star Game. He may even be ready for the majors by August. Just seems that Sano hasn't had either the at-bats or the performance of the others during 2014-2015.

 

Pederson, Bryant and Gallo had more than 500 PA in 2014. Sano had zero PA in 2014. A year off makes a difference. Each of these players also put up better numbers than Sano at AA.  

 

And no, Bryant didn't spend 2014 in the minors because of budget concerns. Just two weeks this year. If Sano puts up Bryant-like numbers in June and early July, maybe he's ready to come to the majors. That would be great. Until then, I don't see any reason to rush him to the Twins.

 

 

[RedBull34]

Maybe the Twins should target the Mets in a trade for Plawecki.  Thoughts?

[Vanimal46]

Not if he never plays OF in the minors.....or 1B in the minors....that's kind of our point. His value is tied to his BAT, imo Plouffe is good at his job, they should be looking at what else Sano could do, and training him for that.

Agreed. The coaches should be hitting the fungo so he can start tracking fly balls. But let's not make it sound like a transition to 1B or RF is rocket science. Plouffe as an example played exactly 1 game in LF in the minors, and we were throwing him in RF in the past when he was initially struggling at 3B & SS.

[Vanimal46]

Maybe the Twins should target the Mets in a trade for Plawecki.  Thoughts?

Sure. For who?

[RedBull34]

Sure. For who?

Plouffe

[jokin]

No question in my mind, in this scenario it would be either Polanco or more likely, Bernier at SS with Esco sliding over to 3rd (sigh).

And we can believe in what Dougie says, he said Polanco was major league ready, and here he comes...