2016 Election Thread

[mikecgrimes]

Latest New Hampshire polls have Trump anywhere from 31 to 36% with all the other candidates topping out at 17 among all the polls so even if the polls are way off Trump should still win.  I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't as he just doesn't understand the game but it would be a Kasich that would have to beat him with a slight Rubio collapse so not all that exciting for me, still as a winner take all state that would be huge for keeping Trump down in the delegate count.  With 3 candidates and about 7% of Iowa support now out of the race 36% isn't a great # but it is high enough that I couldn't write it off 31% is something that I won't be impressed by and the 27 or 28% I expect him to actually get is easily written off as a nice but meaningless base of support.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Marco Rubio with perhaps the most amusing debate disaster I can recall.

Via Marco Rubio Glitch

[mikecgrimes]

Just watched Trump say he doesn't think he needs to win New Hampshire.  First off if he doesn't win New Hampshire it might not be over, but it puts him in a must win position for either South Carolina or Nevada with negative momentum.  Second of all given the polls there is no reason not to say you  need to win unless you know something we don't.  Wow this guy is an awful candidate.  For a guy who has thought about running for years he sure hasn't educated himself on how politics works.

[Squirrel]

 

Just watched Trump say he doesn't think he needs to win New Hampshire.  First off if he doesn't win New Hampshire it might not be over, but it puts him in a must win position for either South Carolina or Nevada with negative momentum.  Second of all given the polls there is no reason not to say you  need to win unless you know something we don't.  Wow this guy is an awful candidate.  For a guy who has thought about running for years he sure hasn't educated himself on how politics works.

Personally I don't think NH is a must-win for any candidate; Iowa either, for that matter. The demographic represented in those states is hardly a microcosm of the demographics of the country; further, and how many delegates do those states represent? I wish super-Tuesday was first and everyone else later whenever.

[stringer bell]

I think there are now three frontrunnners--Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. Trump has the most pressure to win in NH, because of his disappointing finish in Iowa. Rubio has to win somewhere to be viable and Cruz can't fall too far back after his victory in Iowa. Somebody can emerge, but it will take one of the frontrunners fading.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Personally I don't think NH is a must-win for any candidate; Iowa either, for that matter. The demographic represented in those states is hardly a microcosm of the demographics of the country; further, and how many delegates do those states represent? I wish super-Tuesday was first and everyone else later whenever.

 

Trumps a different story because he probably has to get a lot closer to 50% of the delegate count then the typical candidate.  If any other candidate after 50% of delegates have been awarded has 20% of the delegates and the next closest is 5% or more behind we will all say OK fine.  If it's Trump no chance that happens.  Maybe if after 75% of delegates have been awarded and he's on pace for 40% he will get the nomination, but anything less and I would say probably not.  The delegate count from Iowa and New Hampshire don't amount to a ton but if he has 7 out of 53 delegates he will have significant ground to make up not to mention negative momentum.  Not to mention if his clear lead in the polls doesn't prove to get results it would probably mean his support isn't strong enough to win.  Right now betting sites have him at 39% I have to imagine if he loses Tuesday that drops like a rock.

 

I would say the eventual Nominee has better then a 50/50 shot of going 0 for the first 2, and with the wild card of potentially shutting Trump out even if he has a strong lead it really could be anyone.

 

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

I think there are now three frontrunnners--Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. Trump has the most pressure to win in NH, because of his disappointing finish in Iowa. Rubio has to win somewhere to be viable and Cruz can't fall too far back after his victory in Iowa. Somebody can emerge, but it will take one of the frontrunners fading.

 

Cruz should dominate caucus states as long as it looks like he still has a decent shot, but primary states may be his downfall as a great ground game can only improve turnout so much.  I would put the combo of Bush/Kasich as the #3 favorite with Cruz #4, I guess for now you have to call them #4 and 5 but that will change by Super Tuesday.

[Mike Sixel]

What I'm learning is that Christie and Kasich should have gone hard after Trump earlier.......

 

It's like football teams that play by "the book" that are completely outmanned. The odds of that working ar super low. Unless they are playing the long game for the next election, they effectively played it not to lose, and are going to lose, not surprisingly. 

 

If it isn't Rubio at this point, I'd be surprised. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

If it isn't Rubio at this point, I'd be surprised. 

Before the debate Saturday, I would have agreed; but I think the scripted Robot criticism sticks to him, and he won't be able to rise above the other establishment candidates to stop either Trump or Cruz.  

 

Honestly, the Republican nomination may not be decided until the convention...

[Mike Sixel]

I didn't see it, but I do agree, the debate cost him.......actually, I am less confident about that post after doing  a bit of reading this am......I just don't know what to predict there anymore.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I didn't see it, but I do agree, the debate cost him.......actually, I am less confident about that post after doing  a bit of reading this am......I just don't know what to predict there anymore.

 

Yeah, all the blows by Christie on Rubio landed and Rubio is reeling.  I think New Hampshire is make or break for him.

[stringer bell]

Approaching 100 pages and we haven't even gotten to the first primary. I guess there is plenty to discuss.

[DaveW]

I wonder if Paul is regretting stepping out so early, I feel he could have had a second life during the Rubio beat down. If Kasich is suddenly third in NH, no reason why Paul couldn't have made a run up the leader board.

[mikecgrimes]

 

I wonder if Paul is regretting stepping out so early, I feel he could have had a second life during the Rubio beat down. If Kasich is suddenly third in NH, no reason why Paul couldn't have made a run up the leader board.

 

Looking at the latest polls and listening to the explanation from Rush Limbaugh today there was no Rubio beat down, it was just Chris Christe doubling down on a meaningless attack and his friends in the media loving it.  Christies style sometimes plays well, but when you actually think about what he said it doesn't.  Saying something the base agrees with multiple times is never a mistake.  The fact Christe tried to bully him into not saying it might have made it seem awkward in the context of that single debate, but we aren't electing debate winners we're electing a president.  Rubio might not win the nomination but there is no way Republicans will try to knock him out of the race before candidates like Christe are gone.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Looking at the latest polls and listening to the explanation from Rush Limbaugh today there was no Rubio beat down, it was just Chris Christe doubling down on a meaningless attack and his friends in the media loving it.  Christies style sometimes plays well, but when you actually think about what he said it doesn't.  Saying something the base agrees with multiple times is never a mistake.  The fact Christe tried to bully him into not saying it might have made it seem awkward in the context of that single debate, but we aren't electing debate winners we're electing a president.  Rubio might not win the nomination but there is no way Republicans will try to knock him out of the race before candidates like Christe are gone.

Why outsource your opinion to Limbaugh? Watch the segment for yourself.  

[TheLeviathan]

Did you watch the debate?  Pandering to the base does work, but in an election in which off-beat, unscripted, and out of the norms candidates rule...it's INCREDIBLY embarrassing to be called out for a memorized line and then repeat it again several more times.  

 

What it calls into question is authenticity and that matters a lot.  

 

He'll survive longer than Christie, but he may never recover from that awful debate showing.   Christie was just salt in the wound.  The wound was sounding like a cyborg being fed lines. It's the teleprompter accusation on steroids.

 

[twinsnorth49]

Looking at the latest polls and listening to the explanation from Rush Limbaugh today there was no Rubio beat down, it was just Chris Christe doubling down on a meaningless attack and his friends in the media loving it. Christies style sometimes plays well, but when you actually think about what he said it doesn't. Saying something the base agrees with multiple times is never a mistake. The fact Christe tried to bully him into not saying it might have made it seem awkward in the context of that single debate, but we aren't electing debate winners we're electing a president. Rubio might not win the nomination but there is no way Republicans will try to knock him out of the race before candidates like Christe are gone.

Wait...people actually listen to Rush Limbaugh?

[mikecgrimes]

If it wasn't a rehearsed line of attack from the guy who lost Republicans the 2012 election people might care. I wanted

To see rubio fade but it just isn't going to happen.

[TheLeviathan]

If it wasn't a rehearsed line of attack from the guy who lost Republicans the 2012 election people might care. I wanted

To see rubio fade but it just isn't going to happen.

I honestly have no clue what this paragraph means.

[mikecgrimes]

 

I honestly have no clue what this paragraph means.

 

Nothing Chris Christe says matters to Republicans.

[USMCTwin]

I actually agree with Mike on this one. It was embarrassing for Rubio at the time, but he actually got much stronger as the debate went on and recovered really well. I think Rubio is going to have a nice showing in New Hampshire today and continue on towards the eventual nomination. I think the media and some people are blowing this up way bigger than it actually is, but we shall see.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Nothing Chris Christe says matters to Republicans.

 

I didn't need Chris Christie to say it.  But he made it abundantly obvious to anyone that didn't catch what was happening.

 

Authenticity matters and that was a huge blow for Rubio.  I guess we'll find out today how much of an impact it was.

[Craig Arko]

Case closed.

 

 

 

[mikecgrimes]

Tough to say what happens.  Polls put so many candidates in the 12-17 range that any consolidation put's a Trump victory at risk.  It might be a lot easier to vote in a primary then to Caucus but I would still bet against Trump hitting his poll #'s.  If I knew another candidate would hit 25% I would bet against Trump, but there's a decent chance Trump would still win with an awful # like 22.

 

 

[PseudoSABR]

Bernie and Trump look to win by double digits.  Kasich looks to finish second.   Rubio looks to finish fifth (though he's close enough to overtake Cruz and Bush). (Maybe there was something to the Marco Robot criticism other than just media forcing the story?) The Republicans are in a scrum, and I don't see many dropping out beyond Fiorina and (maybe) Carson.  I don't think Kasich will do so well in heavily evangelical states like South Carolina, where Carson could do considerably better.  There won't be clarity in either race until at least Super Tuesday.

[TheLeviathan]

Glad to see Kasich get some love, he's the kind of Republican that needs to be more front and center.

 

And yeah, it's clear Rubio suffered from those Christie attacks.

[mikecgrimes]

 

Glad to see Kasich get some love, he's the kind of Republican that needs to be more front and center.

 

And yeah, it's clear Rubio suffered from those Christie attacks.

 

I'd agree given the results it hurt him, and from a media and momentum standpoint it's a big deal he's not in Kasich's spot in today's race right now but given Trumps 2-1 margin of victory what difference does it make.  I'm glad he slipped as it gives Cruz a solid 3rd if things hold but I think Rubio will be just fine going forward. 

[mikecgrimes]

Will be interested to see if Christie drops out.  If he does it now it would be a way of kicking Rubio while he's down by propping Bush/Kasich up.  If he waits and Rubio starts to rebound Rubio could pick up a solid portion of Christie's support.

[DaveW]

 

 I think Rubio is going to have a nice showing in New Hampshire today and continue on towards the eventual nomination.

Oops

[DaveW]

 

 

Glad to see Kasich get some love, he's the kind of Republican that needs to be more front and center.

 

And yeah, it's clear Rubio suffered from those Christie attacks.

I just can't get behind any candidate that actually wants to defund planned parent hood.