Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, Santana

[Linus]

 

 

It takes time for the process to click with some prospects. Arcia's injury history is unfortunate but guys are often "injury prone" until they aren't. The same is true of "workhorses". Past injuries (or lack thereof) are little indication of future injuries (unless it's a permanent injury that has a good chance of being aggravated again).

 

Oswaldo has 850 PAs with a 103 OPS+.

 

Torii Hunter's first 800 PAs resulted in a 76 OPS+.

Justin Morneau's first 900 PAs resulted in a 100 OPS+.

Michael Cuddyer's first 1100 PAs resulted in a 97 OPS+.

 

I just can't understand why people give up on prospects so quickly. This is part of the learning process. This happens to so many players who become productive MLB players. There are far more Michael Cuddyers in baseball than Mike Trouts.

 

Patience. Patience. Patience. That's the name of the game with prospects.

Nobody is giving up on him.  What people are skeptical about is that he has demonstrated the same approach during his entire big league tenure.  This approach has not resulted in progress at the plate or in the field.  I'm going to be worried about the guy until he stops swinging out of his shoes and striking out a third of the time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Nobody is giving up on him.  What people are skeptical about is that he has demonstrated the same approach during his entire big league tenure.  This approach has not resulted in progress at the plate or in the field.  I'm going to be worried about the guy until he stops swinging out of his shoes and striking out a third of the time.

There is cause for concern. I don't think anyone is disputing that... But comments like "NEXT!" don't really fit in with "no one is giving up on him". Arcia is going to either succeed or fail in MLB. The only way to find out which it will be is to give him a bunch of plate appearances.

[stringer bell]

I don't think the Twins should give up on Arcia or Vargas or Pinto yet.  However, not all of these guys can be in the majors at the same time (IMHO), given the structure of the roster.  I tend to be a bit more negative about Arcia because his flaws are so apparent, but that upside is worth waiting for.  The other thing is that the player has to be willing to adjust and until I see Arcia hitting more line drives and doing better against lefties, I will be skeptical. 

 

I like that Rosario offers value even if he isn't hitting much.  He plays a really good corner OF with a good arm and he can steal a base.  I hope he can learn to stay in the strike zone more. I think he can be a .300 hitter with double digit HRs.

 

I remain mystified that so many think Polanco is ready to become a major league regular SS.  He's hit well in Chattanooga, but he has played the last two years, while super-prospects Buxton and Sano didn't get out on the field much, if at all last year.  If the Twins actually do contend, the shortstop won't be Polanco (of course that's my opinion!).

[Linus]

 

There is cause for concern. I don't think anyone is disputing that... But comments like "NEXT!" don't really fit in with "no one is giving up on him". Arcia is going to either succeed or fail in MLB. The only way to find out which it will be is to give him a bunch of plate appearances.

I agree with that.  I guess I should have said "i'm not giving up on him".  I would leave him (and all players on rehab assignments) down there until he is 100% healthy and has his timing back completely.

 

I can't shake the good feeling of watching Rosario and HIcks playing great D.  Ozzie might have to DH until the next injury or something.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's waaaaaaaayyyyy too early to make that kind of statement. With a few key tweaks to his approach, Arcia could easily turn into a 110-125 OPS+ guy in the blink of an eye.

 

As you said, he's just 24 years old.

Among corner OF qualifiers at Fangraphs for 2014 and 2015, median wRC+ has been in the 115-120 range. Admittedly, there's usually only about 20 qualifiers out of 30 teams, but expanding the sample would probably just add more part-time/fill-in type players (like Eduardo Escobar), who I don't think are all that instructive in a comparison with Arcia.

 

Of course, average still has value, albeit much less so when it is paired with bad defense.  At this point, Arcia is still a lot closer in overall value to Dayan Viciedo than present-day Torii Hunter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We should wait to bring back Arcia until he substantially heats up in his AAA rehab stint, and even optioning him for a little while after if that's what it takes (much like we did with him in May 2014).  As much potential as he has, he brings so little else to the table that we can't really afford to give him a long, slow re-acclimation process at the MLB level.

 

But if we are heck-bent on playing Escobar every day, we might as well send Danny Santana down now and make Escobar the primary shortstop.  Leave outfield to the outfielders, and get another bat back here who has a legit chance of being an asset at DH (Vargas, Pinto, or eventually even Arcia if the outfield is full upon his return).

[laloesch]

 

This pitching staff needs an outfield that can play the positions. Rosario and Hicks have been the ticket. Please keep Escobar out of the outfield. He looked like Delmon Young the other night in the rain delayed game. Get it back to 7 in the bullpen. There is not room on this team for both Vargas and Arcia. My vote goes for switch-hitting Vargas. Arcia should never play the outfield with this pitching staff that does not miss bats. Try to trade Arcia, Meyer, and Santana to Colorado for Tulo. Or Polanco or Gordon instead of Santana, Colorado's choice. Escobar is a super valuable utility man for the infield for the Twins. I would like to see Stauffer culled for Fien (DFA him and see what happens - he cannot just be "sent down")....... right now. He is not a Twin, anyway, in my head. Arcia can rake in Rochester, and increase his trade value and show he is healthy. Tonkin back down and Vargas back up, and let him switch hit as DH. Buxton's arrival should get rid of both Robinson and Schafer.

 

I like the outfield combo of Rosario, Hicks and Hunter.  All three play adequate defense and they seem to have figured out the hitting woes (knock on wood).  I didn't like the Vargas demotion then and i like it less even now.  Call him back up.  Arcia is the odd man out right now in my opinion.  He probably should go to AAA for a while, but could stay with the club as a 4th outfielder / backup DH / PH.  Schaffer and Stauffer are easy DFA's.  

[Willihammer]

Why are people so down on Arcia? The guy is 24 years old and has a career OPS+ of 103 in over a season's worth of PAs. Given how the Twins are trucking right now and how Rosario is starting to look relatively competent, I'd strongly consider bringing Oswaldo back to Minnesota and putting him at DH every day. The Twins are trying to win ballgames in 2015 and Oswaldo at DH gives them a better chance of doing that every night.

Vargas should be DH IMO. Why he got demoted just as he was turning the corner was very hard to swallow. He should be back ASAP.

 

Arcia is frustrating because he still can't catch up to good belt high fastballs. He should be crushing those by now since its been an obvious weak spot from the get-go.

 

Rosario OTOH took Porcello deep on a fastball then in the next at-bat hit a changeup 6 inches off the plate. He's way better in left field, obviously. IMO its a no brainer to keep him up unless/until Arcia forces the issue.

[dxpavelka]

 

If Casey Fien feels okay, he will be in uniform tomorrow.  That could be the end of the road for Stauffer or Duensing, or mean an option for Tonkin or Pressly.  It still doesn't deal with the logjam between left field, shortstop, and DH.  Arcia is rehabbing and so far Vargas is raking at AAA.  Who should be with the Twins and who should be in the minors? 

Nice problem to have and nice to not be looking at the Dedunos, Berniers, Fulds, Schaefers, Mastroiannis & Florimons of the world when reinforcements are needed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rosario OTOH took Porcello deep on a fastball then in the next at-bat hit a changeup 6 inches off the plate. He's way better in left field, obviously. IMO its a no brainer to keep him up unless/until Arcia forces the issue.

I'd love it if Rosario could stay in Minnesota but I think he's going to struggle when pitchers realize that he'll swing at pretty much anything.

 

Since the call-up, Rosario has swung at 64% of all pitches, yet only 41% of those pitches have been in the strike zone. Of the pitches outside of the strike zone, Rosario still swings at 56% of them.

 

That has disaster written all over it. People criticize Arcia for swinging contantly and from his heels yet in his career, he has only swung at 38% of pitches outside the zone and 52% of all pitches.

[Willihammer]

I'd love it if Rosario could stay in Minnesota but I think he's going to struggle when pitchers realize that he'll swing at pretty much anything.

 

Since the call-up, Rosario has swung at 64% of all pitches, yet only 41% of those pitches have been in the strike zone. Of the pitches outside of the strike zone, Rosario still swings at 56% of them.

 

That has disaster written all over it. People criticize Arcia for swinging contantly and from his heels yet in his career, he has only swung at 38% of pitches outside the zone and 52% of all pitches.

Good point. Rosario has to stop swinging at everything. I guess I see them as more or less equivalent players right now, only Arcia has the baggage of going 2+ years unable to correct the same damn weakness. Maybe Rosario can adjust quicker, or maybe merely replacing Arcia will cause Arcia to finally make whatever adjustment he needs to make.

[Vanimal46]

I think Duensing has a tiny bit more value as a lefty in the bullpen over Stauffer, even though Duensing has done nothing of significance this season. So, see you later Timmy.

 

As far as Vargas vs. Arcia, I'm in the Vargas camp to see him back up in Minneapolis. I have no stats to back up this decision. It's purely personal on my part where arcia really rubbed me the wrong way with his boneheaded mistakes in the OF and body language earlier this season.

[gocgo]

 

Fien up Stauffer DFA'd.  Tonkin down and Vargas back up.  Arcia sees time in AAA beyond his rehab.  Just my guesses.

Totally agree...but that makes waaaay too much sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Good point. Rosario has to stop swinging at everything. I guess I see them as more or less equivalent players right now, only Arcia has the baggage of going 2+ years unable to correct the same damn weakness. Maybe Rosario can adjust quicker, or maybe merely replacing Arcia will cause Arcia to finally make whatever adjustment he needs to make.

It's very possible that Rosario will adjust but we've seen this happen to a bunch of prospects over the years. I'd have more faith in Eddie adjusting if he was more selective in the minors but he was an excessive free-swinger down there as well. I don't think he has the talent to be the free-swinger Oswaldo is with his incredible bat speed and wrists.

 

But that's okay. Rosario is only 23 years old. He has plenty of time to learn but it's probably going to be in the minor leagues sooner rather than later.

 

[drjim]

OK, another question. Why do people think Oliveros is better than Pressly or Tonkin (or even Graham)? Is this anything other than seeing some numbers and dreaming on the mediocrity you can't see over the mediocrity right in front of your face?

 

I understand wanting to get rid of Stauffer and (to a lesser extent) Duensing, but that would be for Fien and hopefully a bat. I also understand that Boyer and Thompson probably aren't sustainable, but shouldn't we at least wait until it actually happens. Just don't see the reason to send down Tonkin or Pressly for Oliveros. Oliveros is just fine as org depth, ready if there is an opening.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

OK, another question. Why do people think Oliveros is better than Pressly or Tonkin (or even Graham)? Is this anything other than seeing some numbers and dreaming on the mediocrity you can't see over the mediocrity right in front of your face?

 

I understand wanting to get rid of Stauffer and (to a lesser extent) Duensing, but that would be for Fien and hopefully a bat. I also understand that Boyer and Thompson probably aren't sustainable, but shouldn't we at least wait until it actually happens. Just don't see the reason to send down Tonkin or Pressly for Oliveros. Oliveros is just fine as org depth, ready if there is an opening.

I don't know if many people are advocating Oliveros over Pressly, Tonkin, or Graham.  I certainly am not, at this point.

 

I think it was suspect not to take any of those guys north to begin with (except the Rule 5'er), and I think it is suspect to retain the one that has failed and clearly been relegated to extreme mop-up duty (Stauffer).

[drjim]

 

I don't know if many people are advocating Oliveros over Pressly, Tonkin, or Graham.  I certainly am not, at this point.

 

I think it was suspect not to take any of those guys north to begin with (except the Rule 5'er), and I think it is suspect to retain the one that has failed and clearly been relegated to extreme mop-up duty (Stauffer).

 

Stauffer certainly doesn't belong on the roster, but he really should go for a bat, so it would have little to do with Oliveros.

 

I didn't have a huge problem keeping Pressly and Tonkin in the minors to begin the season, they weren't good in the spring (from all accounts, official and media). Tonkin shouldn't be going down now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Stauffer certainly doesn't belong on the roster, but he really should go for a bat, so it would have little to do with Oliveros.

 

I didn't have a huge problem keeping Pressly and Tonkin in the minors to begin the season, they weren't good in the spring (from all accounts, official and media). Tonkin shouldn't be going down now.

We're probably mostly in agreement, I'm no fan of 13 pitchers, although I think you could also send down Santana to get that bat up here at this point (or Herrmann, if the bat is Pinto).

 

I'm not crazy about our AAA relievers either, but I was a little uninspired by our opening day bullpen.  And our current bullpen.  I feel like we are going to be scrambling to find quality bullpen arms at some point, and I'd like to look through some more options now.  Drop Stauffer and use his spot to rotate Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter, Darnell, Thielbar -- maybe one of them catches lighting in a bottle like Boyer and Thompson.  None should be worse or more worthless than Stauffer has been thus far this season.