SI on Mauer and Twins

[gunnarthor]

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/05/21/hit-and-run-tim-lincecum-joe-mauer-san-francisco-giants-minnesota-twins

 

It looks at Mauer's lost power and concludes with "Minnesota may not wind up contending, but if Mauer and some of those other players can get going, it could at least break its four-year string of sub-.500 finishes, turning the corner toward a time when top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano become centerpieces of the lineup."

 

The most interesting thing in the article is that Mauer has lost a lot of distance on his fly balls while his strike out rate has increased.  

 

I'm certainly not a scout but it always seemed to me that his bat always took a long route threw the zone, which led to a lot of opposite field hits.  But his bat speed may have slowed a bit, leading to more strikeouts and less power (esp up in the zone).  So maybe he needs to completely abandon his inside out swing and use his lower half more?  Someone like Parker would know more than I, obviously.  

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I don't have the data - but it seems Joe is not getting the calls from umpires that he once got.  He often looks flummoxed by called strikes on the corners.  He's even had some choice words for umpires.

 

Regarding bat speed - you may be right that it is slower, but he is pulling the ball more often.  It may be that he is committing a bit earlier to get out front on pitches - making him vulnerable to off speed and breaking stuff - resulting in more Ks.  

 

It was interesting that in the postgame interview after his home run the other night he said that he was looking to go the other way, but reacted to the hanging slider and pulled it.   

 

Mauer may not be a hitter at his peak - but I think his descent will be far more gradual than the vast majority of veterans.  

 

[jimmer]

 

I don't have the data - but it seems Joe is not getting the calls from umpires that he once got.  He often looks flummoxed by called strikes on the corners.  He's even had some choice words for umpires.

 

Regarding bat speed - you may be right that it is slower, but he is pulling the ball more often.  It may be that he is committing a bit earlier to get out front on pitches - making him vulnerable to off speed and breaking stuff - resulting in more Ks.  

 

It was interesting that in the postgame interview after his home run the other night he said that he was looking to go the other way, but reacted to the hanging slider and pulled it.   

 

Mauer may not be a hitter at his peak - but I think his descent will be far more gradual than the vast majority of veterans.  

Prior to this year, the strike zone (as it was being called) had been expanding each year for the last 5 years (which helps pitchers).  

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-expansion-is-out-of-control/

 

For a player with such a an exact feel for the strike zone, these changes are bound to hurt him.  Not that it's the only reason we've seen a steady rise in his Ks, but it's got to be a factor.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

Prior to this year, the strike zone (as it was being called) had been expanding each year for the last 5 years (which helps pitchers).  

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-expansion-is-out-of-control/

 

For a player with such a an exact feel for the strike zone, these changes are bound to hurt him.  Not that it's the only reason we've seen a steady rise in his Ks, but it's got to be a factor.

Given this data, it stands to reason that pitchers will live on the corners and take their chances with Joe. 

 

This may explain Joe's success with RISP and particularly with the bases loaded.   Pitchers have to pitch within the strike zone more often in those situations and Joe is raking.

[TheLeviathan]

One thing interesting from fangraphs is that Joe appears to be swinging much more frequently in general, but in particular at pitches outside the zone.  That could be a symptom of that problem or a reflection of a more aggressive approach or something else entirely.  But it's a trend clearly outside his previous track record.

[nicksaviking]

 

"Minnesota may not wind up contending, but if Mauer and some of those other players can get going, it could at least break its four-year string of sub-.500 finishes,

 

The Twins may not be contenders, they also may be a team over .500, but I doubt both   parts of that statement will be accurate. 

 

It seems to me that if you finish over .500 in this day with five playoff teams, you're probably contending.

[GoGonzoJournal]

It's really hard for any hitter, regardless of how good, to hit the strike that's just below the front knee cap. Umpires have made it a point to call the low strike because MLB made it a point to harass them for not calling it in the past. MLB basically shot itself in the foot by doing so, lengthening games and decreasing hits and runs. Now they're trying to fix it with the stupid "pace of play" rules, which are garbage.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins may not be contenders, they also may be a team over .500, but I doubt both parts of that statement will be accurate.

 

It seems to me that if you finish over .500 in this day with five playoff teams, you're probably contending.

Yeah, I think we'll see a lot of 86 win WC teams now. 82 wins or better almost automatically makes you a "contender".

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, I think we'll see a lot of 86 win WC teams now. 82 wins or better almost automatically makes you a "contender".

 

I'd love to see the GM who says in July, "We're four games out, time to sell."

[TRex]

 

I'd love to see the GM who says in July, "We're four games out, time to sell."

Didn't Kenny Williams (ChiSox) do that one year... and was equally vilified and praised?

[spinowner]

 

Now they're trying to fix it with the stupid "pace of play" rules, which are garbage.

Don't get me started. Actually, I'll start just a little. The only good way to speed up the game that I can think of would be to make the strike zone larger at the TOP of the zone, not the bottom. And to counteract that advantage for the pitcher the mound should be lowered by an inch or two. A larger zone means fewer pitches taken and fewer walks. Don't mess with any other rules, and especially don't institute a pitch clock. This is baseball, not basketball.

[spinowner]

 

I'd love to see the GM who says in July, "We're four games out, time to sell."

 

 

Didn't Kenny Williams (ChiSox) do that one year... and was equally vilified and praised?

And they wound up winning the WS a few years later.

[drjim]

 

And they wound up winning the WS a few years later.

 

It was 8 years later, with no of the players acquired having anything to do with it. But they did have some impact on winning the division in 2000, 3 years after the trade.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Flag_Trade

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah, I think we'll see a lot of 86 win WC teams now. 82 wins or better almost automatically makes you a "contender".

 

that move would take some serious job security. Fans would hate it, and understandably so.  But if you know your team is a pretender, that makes sense as that team would bring in the biggest haul.  I could see the Twins doing something like that.  Trade Plouffe at the deadline to make room for Sano.  Send Hunter packing to bring up Harrison or Buxton.  Short term, they would probably lose a few more games.  Long term, it brings up key pieces and gives them valuable experience while picking up some pretty nice prospects. 

 

Not sure I'd do it though.  I'm enjoying this season so far, and it's been a while since I've enjoyed Twins baseball.  I think the press would crucify Ryan, and rightfully so. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I don't think that's the right move for the Twins. It has been too long since fans saw competitive baseball and pulling the rug out from under them would hurt PR quite a bit.