Torii's Defensive Metrics

[jimmer]

 

Can't we just enjoy the ride?  Would hate to take you guys to the amusement park.   What do your eyes tell you?  Do you have to be top 10 at everything or you suck?  Is it ok to be average at any part of your game as a player?

 

Hunter is doing a decent job out there.  Nothing special and nothing terrible.  He adds to our team as a COMPLETE PLAYER.   Enjoy the ride folks and stop looking for the negative.  Find something positive to talk about and actually enjoy talking about it.   

If you look at the title of this thread, it's to talk about whether or not Hunter has actually been good on defense this year and it brings up the metrics.  People are talking about the OP's topic. 

 

And people should be able to enjoy the game the way that works for them.  Discussing a team's good points and bad points, for some, doesn't diminish the enjoyment of the game, their love of their team, or the Twins winning.  It's a discussion is all.  Not sure why this bothers you so much.

[Hrbowski]

 

Really depends on whether or not the person knows how and when to apply them.  

 

For example, you say that the big differences in Hunter's rankings less than 2 months into this season shows how flawed the stats are. Yet the SAME stats last year had the following rankings for Hunter as follows: Last in DRS, Last in UZR, Last in Def.  

 

These are the same stats that you say are flawed, in part, because they show such a difference in rankings after not even two months but, after a full year in 2014, the rankings are matched exact.  It doesn't always end up that way, but most of the time very close, and the occasional outlier wouldn't make it invalid anyway.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

If you follow the link and look at those three stats (DRS, UZR and Def) for each RF, you'll see that players are very close in each ranking at all three stats.  Won't always be exact because they measure different things.

I still am not convinced, sometimes there calculations for the same stat contradict each other, such as Kevin Pillar leading the Majors with 7 DRS, but then when you look at outfield it says he has 9 DRS, and other places say that Lorenzo Cain has 14 DRS and Kevin Kiermaier has 10 DRS but then others say 12 and 9. What I am trying to say is that you either saved a run or you didn't, there should be no stats contradicting each other, and another thing that I would like to point out is that someone like Juan Lagares had 28 DRS last year, but has -2 this year, but when you watch him it is obvious that he has not regressed that much, as is saying that Mike Trout went from being the best center fielder in the big leagues to well below average the next year. Defensive sabermetrics might be helpful to get an idea on who are the best defensive players, but you can't use them to evaluate a player, it just doesn't make sense.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Hunters defensive value will fluctuate and depend on what types and where balls are hit to him. He simply is going to not get to some balls that many other RF's would have gotten to. That might become a two out double with runners on that turns a 0 run inning into a 3 run inning, and Trevor May looking bad instead of good. Or, he could have more not easy to get to balls that fall, that not many others would have gotten either, but he makes a good and smart throw on. If he gets easier to get to balls hit to him, he will look good. Where he hurts us are the balls hit to the track or wall that he misses by a step or two...and those ones can change games. Range matters.

 

The more the Twins use the shift agains left handers, the more this helps Hunter. He can play further back and has more help on the short balls. Not sure what the current data is on how often the Twins are doing this against left handers to date. I do think this is something that would be helpful to the Twins, and not just because certain hitters pull, but because it plays to help Hunters deficiencies. 

[JB_Iowa]

Molitor has played at age 40.  That would seem to give him an advantage in knowing how to use Hunter on any given day.

[Loosey]

I think he is what most expected him to be.  An "OK" Right Fielder.  Gone are the days where he is going to come out of nowhere to steal an extra base hit away.  As long as he knows he can't do that great, because when he tries to be 29 year old Torii is when doubles turn into triples and singles into extra base hits.

 

Also, when Terry Ryan mentions someone being "good" in the field I very highly doubt he uses any metrics to come to those conclusions.  Good to Ryan means he can catch the balls he is supposed and limits errors and mistakes, which is exactly what Torii does.  I still would rather have him in right than Arcia.

[jimmer]

 

I still am not convinced, sometimes there calculations for the same stat contradict each other, such as Kevin Pillar leading the Majors with 7 DRS, but then when you look at outfield it says he has 9 DRS, and other places say that Lorenzo Cain has 14 DRS and Kevin Kiermaier has 10 DRS but then others say 12 and 9. What I am trying to say is that you either saved a run or you didn't, there should be no stats contradicting each other, and another thing that I would like to point out is that someone like Juan Lagares had 28 DRS last year, but has -2 this year, but when you watch him it is obvious that he has not regressed that much, as is saying that Mike Trout went from being the best center fielder in the big leagues to well below average the next year. Defensive sabermetrics might be helpful to get an idea on who are the best defensive players, but you can't use them to evaluate a player, it just doesn't make sense.

I looked at each player's Fangraphs page for each player you mentioned.

 

In Pillars case he's leading the majors in DRS in LF at 7 but he hasn't just played LF he's also played CF and he has 2 DRS there.  Hence the 9.

Cain says 12 for this year.  Not sure where it says 14 (except last year and just in CF, he had 10 more in RF).  

And I only see 9 for Kiermaier. He has 10 for his career in CF, maybe that's where the 10 comes from?

If you want to link what you're looking at, that'd be great.

[Hrbowski]

 

I looked at each player's Fangraphs page for each player you mentioned.

 

In Pillars case he's leading the majors in DRS in LF at 7 but he hasn't just played LF he's also played CF and he has 2 DRS there.  Hence the 9.

Cain says 12.  Not sure where it says 14.  Not on Fangraphs as far as I can see. I'd have to have a link to see that.

And I only see 9 for Kiermaier.

If you want to link what you're looking at, that'd be great.

 Did you look at Juan Lagares and Mike Trout? There is no way you can go from the best to the worst in one year via stats, but scouting shows that there was no such regression. Those stats for Cain and Kiermaier were from a link that somebody sent to me on another website, but I can't remember where, and the only explanation that I could see would be that they "allowed" some runs, so that they got some knocked off.

[jimmer]

 

 Did you look at Juan Lagares and Mike Trout? There is no way you can go from the best to the worst in one year via stats, but scouting shows that there was no such regression. Those stats for Cain and Kiermaier were from a link that somebody sent to me on another website, but I can't remember where, and the only explanation that I could see would be that they "allowed" some runs, so that they got some knocked off.

I only use Fangraphs for defensive metrics stuff. I find them the most reliable, so I can't speak for other places or the quality/accuracy of their info.

 

Well, Trout played at different positions so comparing him to other CFs as opposed to other LF will show an issue.  Lagares, I haven't watched him much this season, but the season is still early, so who knows. He was out of his mind very good the last two seasons and still projects very good for the season.  But finding a select group of random players you think are outliers doesn't negate an overall process.  

 

In any event, I'm not trying to convince you to trust these metrics, they have issues and even the people who are the most staunch defenders of metrics know that (you can look at Dave Cameron's chat on Wednesday at Fangraphs and he says the same thing), but the question is, what is a better way currently available to evaluate?  As I pointed out in our debate, you have to know how and when to use them. And you have to know how to read the info too so as not to misread it and draw a conclusion based on that.

 

But now we've gotten off the Torii Hunter part of the metric conversation, so I'm going to stop my part of the discussion with you here.  It shouldn't be taking place here. So unless we want to continue by PM,  I'll just say I enjoyed the conversation, Hrbowski.

[BoomBoom]

 

 

 

 

Also, when Terry Ryan mentions someone being "good" in the field I very highly doubt he uses any metrics to come to those conclusions.  Good to Ryan means he can catch the balls he is supposed and limits errors and mistakes, which is exactly what Torii does.  I still would rather have him in right than Arcia.

 

 

 

I agree

[BoomBoom]

 

If you look at the title of this thread, it's to talk about whether or not Hunter has actually been good on defense this year and it brings up the metrics.  People are talking about the OP's topic. 

 

And people should be able to enjoy the game the way that works for them.  Discussing a team's good points and bad points, for some, doesn't diminish the enjoyment of the game, their love of their team, or the Twins winning.  It's a discussion is all.  Not sure why this bothers you so much.

 

You are right.  The thread does ask for this discussion.  I guess I'm just happy that we have a team dynamic that is a winning one right now.  I can just see these types of questions being asked by media as well.  That's all.  We have been bad for soooo long that I want to spin things to feed the positive.  

 

Like:   "Torii has been much better than we imagined out there.  He is making the plays he is supposed to make and giving us what we hoped for offensively as well."  I think he is an asset to the team actually.  Overall  IMO  --  Shouldn't stop others from feeding to the conversation however, and for that you are right.    There are only so many Mike Trouts out there (great  at everything).  Oh yeah - we have a better record than Trouts team too.  Actually playoff bound if season ended today.  Those are the Metrics I'm talking about!   "TORRI'S PLAYOFF METRICS" - How his teams seem to find themselves into the playoffs every year?

[USAFChief]

Overall, he's been a plus player for us and that's a good thing.

 

According to the metrics, he's tied for last in DRS, he's tied for 3rd in plays made outside of zone, and he's been middle of the road in range. UZR is the worst tool to use this early in the season, so I won't use that.

 

I don't think 2014 was an outlier for him because 2013 was also bad for him defensively(though not AS bad as 2014) and one would expect the closer he gets to 40, his defense would trend down which is exactly what happened between 2013 and 2014.

 

In any event, the metrics will normalize and look closer to level when the season is over.

 

He's a good or as bad as your opinion thinks he is on defense. But he's almost 40 and it shouldn't surprise anyone that some of us would see that he's just not good on defense anymore as we remember nor as good as a lot of the young studs out there are that we also see.

 

At this point, he's what Jeter was a good chunk of his career. He makes the plays he gets to, he's sure handed, he's smart on defense and he makes an occasional good play (the last thing is something almost every player does).

Is there a study done somewhere indicating DRS is more accurate in smaller sample sizes than UZR?

[sane]

will the WAR over this never end?

War, huh Good God y'all

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing, just say it again

War whoa Lord

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing!

[Thrylos]

 

Molitor has played at age 40.  That would seem to give him an advantage in knowing how to use Hunter on any given day.

 

He should be using Hunter at his (Molitor's) old position then...

[nicksaviking]

He should be using Hunter at his (Molitor's) old position then...

Worth a shot but both Plouffe and Dozier might protest getting moved.

[Thrylos]

 

Worth a shot but both Plouffe and Dozier might protest getting moved.

 

I mean Molitor's position when he was Hunter's age...

[Trevor0333]

There was definitely something to him playing too deep and catching too many 1 hoppers he should have been able to reach. He could get away with that when he was younger but seemed to refuse to compensate. He appears to have come in a little bit from the normal depths he'd play but that could also be influenced by the shorter RF at Target Field.