Souhan: Hunter better value than Mauer

[gunnarthor]

 

30.9 to 19.1 WAR is what he was likely using (Fangraphs WAR) you are using bWAR.

 

Also Mauer made 121.25 million from 2008 to the end of 2014, I'm guessing he hasn't included 2015 yet because we aren't even 1/4th through the season. But Hunter made 105.5 million during that time, so it looks like Mr Gleemans numbers are off on that end. (I thought 5% seemed really really small)

Even with those numbers, Mauer isn't 60% "more than" Hunter.  Hunter's total is 60% of Mauer's total so Mauer would have produced 40% more?  Maybe I'm reading too much into his tweet but if someone did something 60% more, I'd expect his number to be more than half of the others number.  I guess he's arguing that the 12 WAR difference is 60% of Hunter's total as opposed to about 40% of Mauer's total? 

 

Oh well, it doesn't really matter. 

[Kwak]

"Hunter more valuable than Mauer"?--or is it Mauer more valuable than Hunter?  It really doesn't matter.  Neither competes with the other for playing time, plus the cost of their respective salaries can be comfortably paid--by somebody else.  The Twins can have both (or one, or neither) and still survive.

 

As for Hunter signing with the Angels (back in the day), the Angels were a better team, with far more financial resources (to build a better team), and played in what most players consider a more desirable city.  Hunter would have been questioned (mocked) by many for sticking with the Twins rather than signing with the Angels.

[Willihammer]

Even with those numbers, Mauer isn't 60% "more than" Hunter.  Hunter's total is 60% of Mauer's total so Mauer would have produced 40% more?  Maybe I'm reading too much into his tweet but if someone did something 60% more, I'd expect his number to be more than half of the others number.  I guess he's arguing that the 12 WAR difference is 60% of Hunter's total as opposed to about 40% of Mauer's total? 

 

Oh well, it doesn't really matter.

Take Hunter's WAR, multiply by 1.60, that's 60% more. That part is right. The salary is off though.

[gunnarthor]

One last thought on this, even if you like WAR, an 8 WAR difference (by b-r) between two players over 8 years is actually within the margin of error for WAR. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Jim Souhan reached rock bottom several years ago in a column he wrote about Gopher Football Coach Jerry Kill. In the Article, Souhan went out of his way to make fun of Coach Kill's epilepsy with the following comments.

 

"Kill suffers a seizure on game day as the coach of the Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium exactly as often as he wins a Big Ten game."

 "No one who buys a ticket to TCF Bank Stadium should be rewarded with the sight of a middle-aged man writhing on the ground." 

 

This tells you all you need to know about Jim Souhan. Needless to say, the Tribune issued an apology. Souhan's nastiness towards a number of Twins Players is par for the course.

 

Souhan: In category of health, Kill falls too short to continue - StarTribune.com

Wow. That is ugly.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

I don't find much merit in Souhan's thesis, but I think it's fair to say Mauer has not sustained even pessimistic levels of production that we had hoped for his early 30s seasons.  That's the disappointing part, but resigning him was still the only smart choice.

 

The 'Mediocrity of Mauer' could be an interesting column for the right person. One that's going to look objectively and not be a jerk for the sake of sparking outrage. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The 'Mediocrity of Mauer' could be an interesting column for the right person. One that's going to look objectively and not be a jerk for the sake of sparking outrage. 

 

Right, I think it was widely accepted that his season was an outlier before we signed him.  Most reasonable people wouldn't set that as his bar for production.

 

But I also think the bar most reasonable people would've set has also been a struggle for him.  (In large part due to injury admittedly)

[JB_Iowa]

While not the deciding factor, I thought Hunter unwanted to go someplace with natural turf.

 

Would he still be playing if he had spent 2 or 3 more seasons on the outfield iron at the Dome?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Print is dead.

Me and my teletype machine are doing just fine.  Thank you very much....

[mikelink45]

I have a hard time seeing how Souhan's column is controversial.  He wrote the truth - the figures are there for anyone to check.  Joe was great and on his way to the HOF.  Right now he has moved to the margins of the hall and if he continues to play at the level that he is currently performing he will fall short. Hunter, never a HOF, continues to play in a way that invigorates the team and is productive.  I would take Hunter over Mauer for the time since Mauer left the mask behind.  This is a fact, not a bash, I feel really bad that Mauer's career took this path.

[HitInAPinch]

Geez, will Souhan ever stop?  Trying to compare 2 players at vastly different ages makes zero sense.

 

Hunter was 32.  At that age you have to start thinking about the future.  He signed a longer term contract for [what I think] was better money.  Only thing I found odd what signing with the Angels thinking it would lead to another World Series ring.  The Angels have a long track record of misfortunes.

 

Mauer's contract [at age 26] was made because, at that time, everyone saw him as a perennial MVP candidate, state-of-the-art .300+ hitting, Gold Glove catcher and sure thing 1st ballot HOFer.  Then came the injuries.  I have sympathy for Mauer.  It's gotta hurt thinking about what could have been....

[gunnarthor]

When Mauer signed his deal, I thought it was a good thing.  Even if he had to move off of catching, those hit skills of him would make him a great player, even as a full-time DH.  I compared him to Molitor and figured if Molitor could remain a very valuable hitter into his mid-30s (and beyond) Mauer could too.

 

But for whatever reason, Mauer aged very badly.  His 28-32 years were a waste and I don't see him getting better as he gets older.

[USAFChief]

Right, I think it was widely accepted that his season was an outlier before we signed him.  Most reasonable people wouldn't set that as his bar for production.

 

But I also think the bar most reasonable people would've set has also been a struggle for him.  (In large part due to injury admittedly)

I don't think it was "widely accepted" at all. In fact, just the opposite...most saw him as a talented hitter for average who was adding power to his game. Maybe not 29 a year, but 20 or so, with lots of doubles, every year.

 

That he hasn't been ale to do that is part of the reason his contract is widely viewed now as too much money.

[Otto von Ballpark]

One last thought on this, even if you like WAR, an 8 WAR difference (by b-r) between two players over 8 years is actually within the margin of error for WAR.

Not necessarily, assuming you are multiplying 1*8. The margin of error is based on sample size, so as the sample gets bigger, the margin gets smaller, I think.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think it was "widely accepted" at all. In fact, just the opposite...most saw him as a talented hitter for average who was adding power to his game. Maybe not 29 a year, but 20 or so, with lots of doubles, every year.

That he hasn't been ale to do that is part of the reason his contract is widely viewed now as too much money.

I don't think most saw that HR binge continuing. Almost certainly the expectation was for more than what we've seen, but I guess my sense of the fan base was different.

[JB_Iowa]

I think many saw this as a questionable extension thinking only about baseball but a NECESSARY extension when thinking about a home-grown baseball player.

 

Although a year before Mauer would hit free agency, the extension was agreed  upon less than a month before the opening of TF.

 

Mauer had the Twins between a rock and a very hard public relations place.  They simply couldn't let contract extension talk overshadow the opening of TF.  They were under no such constraints when they let Hunter leave.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think many saw this as a questionable extension thinking only about baseball but a NECESSARY extension when thinking about a home-grown baseball player.

 

Although a year before Mauer would hit free agency, the extension was agreed  upon less than a month before the opening of TF.

 

Mauer had the Twins between a rock and a very hard public relations place.  They simply couldn't let contract extension talk overshadow the opening of TF.  They were under no such constraints when they let Hunter leave.

That's why the delay in signing such a contract was so baffling.  I guess it is possible that Mauer was playing hardball, but given the Twins contract history, I suspect they didn't pursue things much earlier, or seek a longer deal for his first contract (which was signed after Mauer had already won a batting title and Target Field construction had already begun -- THAT should have had the structure of a "lifetime deal", and it probably would have expired about the time his catching load was reduced, and his current deal would seem much more appropriate for his current position and skill level).

[Brandon Warne]

Torii Hunter is playing better than Joe Mauer at this exact second.

 

Torii Hunter will soon be 40, and came into this month with like a 560 OPS.

#analysis 

[E B Farnum]

The problem with Joe Mauer is he is holding up the advancement of young first bacemen and designated hitters.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

Right, I think it was widely accepted that his season was an outlier before we signed him.  Most reasonable people wouldn't set that as his bar for production.

 

But I also think the bar most reasonable people would've set has also been a struggle for him.  (In large part due to injury admittedly)

 

Not 2009 but he's really fallen off big time. Now he's not even getting on-base at a good clip and the swing looks slow and weak like last season. 

[Thrylos]

 

The problem with Joe Mauer is he is holding up the advancement of young first bacemen and designated hitters.

 

Such as?

Brock Peterson? Reynaldo Rodriguez? DJ Hicks? Michael Gonzales?
(those are the Twins AAA and AA 1B/DH players)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Such as?

Brock Peterson? Reynaldo Rodriguez? DJ Hicks? Michael Gonzales?

(those are the Twins AAA and AA 1B/DH players)

Primarily, Vargas isn't playing everyday in MLB. It is also suggested that Pinto can't get enough DH ABs to be in MLB right now. There might be a case soon for Arcia to see more DH action and thereby opening OF opportunities for others.

[Thrylos]

 

Primarily, Vargas isn't playing everyday in MLB. It is also suggested that Pinto can't get enough DH ABs to be in MLB right now. There might be a case soon for Arcia to see more DH action and thereby opening OF opportunities for others.

 

Vargas is the every day DH.  Mauer has not DH'd enough.  Today Santana was a DH.

Suzuki, who is worse than Mauer, is blocking Pinto.  Not Mauer.  Arcia is a RF who switched positions because of Hunter.  Hunter is blocking him, if you can call it that.  He will be the Twins' every day LFer once he comes back from the DL, with Schafer going away, Rosario down and Robinson on the bench.

 

Nobody is blocking Vargas and Arcia, Suzuki is blocking Pinto.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Vargas is the every day DH.  Mauer has not DH'd enough.  Today Santana was a DH.

Suzuki, who is worse than Mauer, is blocking Pinto.  Not Mauer.  Arcia is a RF who switched positions because of Hunter.  Hunter is blocking him, if you can call it that.  He will be the Twins' every day LFer once he comes back from the DL, with Schafer going away, Rosario down and Robinson on the bench.

 

Nobody is blocking Vargas and Arcia, Suzuki is blocking Pinto.

The past 6 games, Vargas has started 3.  Not exactly looking like a true "every day DH" especially when Escobar and Santana get the spot over him.  And he's only got 6 starts at 1B all season.  I would guess that Vargas would have more at-bats this season if Mauer wasn't a lock for the starting lineup every day (started 36 of 37 so far).

 

Some have speculated that Pinto isn't in MLB right now because he would see too few at-bats as the backup catcher.  To me, that suggests the players in that DH mix (which includes Mauer and Hunter) could be seen as contributing to "blocking" him, in addition to Suzuki (who like Mauer is basically a lock for the starting lineup too, almost as much as a catcher can be in modern MLB -- on pace for 131 starts behind the plate this season, his highest since 2009).

 

"Blocking" is not always a simply, obvious, 1-to-1, share-the-exact-same-position-every-day proposition.  Some players contribute to the blocking of others in degree, particularly by positional inflexibility and a guaranteed lineup spot, and Mauer is currently guilty on both of those counts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

When Mauer signed his deal, I thought it was a good thing. Even if he had to move off of catching, those hit skills of him would make him a great player, even as a full-time DH. I compared him to Molitor and figured if Molitor could remain a very valuable hitter into his mid-30s (and beyond) Mauer could too.

Ditto. A guy with that kind of bat control and baseball smarts should do well into his 30s. It doesn't make sense.