Twins chances of making the playoffs this year

[glunn]

On the baseball standings page of ESPN, they include each team's chances of making the playoffs this year. You can look at this here if you want -- http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/playoffPercent/order/true

 

ESPN puts the Twins chances at 0.9% (slightly less than one percent). But I wonder if they take into account the potential magic that could happen, such as the ascension of Babe Plouffe and the possibility that Mauer, Morneau etc. could start playing at their prior levels, and the possibility that Diamond, Liriano and at least two other starters can provide solid second halves.

 

What do you think? What are the Twins' chances of making the playoffs THIS year. And please feel free to comment.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'm glad to see the Babe Plouffe moniker is catching on! Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist, but that's what makes sports fun, right? I say greater than 10%. I think Diamond and Liriano gives the Twins two solid starters at the top of the rotation, the bullpen is good, and a Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit top 7 is pretty darn good. With all the other flawed teams in this division, and our historical ability to dominate the Central, I think this thing is far from over.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No Cuddyer = No Magic = No Late Season Run

[glanzer]

I feel like there's a good chance the team that wins the AL Central will have a losing record. That said, the Twins still have to leapfrog four teams in half a season with a ton of head-to-head matchups remaining between those other four teams, which best-case-scenario would see those four teams all play .500 against each other and the Twins beat up on them. 8.5 games back isn't ridiculously difficult, but it would have to be even more of a magic fairytale second half than 2003 or 2009. I'd say there's a 2% chance the Twins could pull that off.

[IdahoPilgrim]

As much as I would like to believe, I'm going to go with ESPN on this one. To believe more assumes not only that the Twins make a massive surge, but that every other team in the AL Central plays poorly the rest of the season. My guess is that either Chicago or Detroit is going to go on a good run sooner or later and put this thing away.

[Cody Christie]

Is it scary to think that the number on ESPN.com was lower earlier this year?

[Cody Christie]

This thread reminded me of this scene from Dumb and Dumber:

 

[video=youtube_share;yCFB2akLh4s]

[Yoshii]

If the Twins make the playoffs, I will cut a body part off, and Twins Daily members get to decide which part to chop off.

 

Edit: It just can't be something that will kill me.

[Gernzy]

If the Twins make the playoffs, I will cut a body part off, and Twins Daily members get to decide which part to chop off.

 

Edit: It just can't be something that will kill me.

Just because you said that they will now make the playoffs. Wouldn't that be something!

[DaveW]

A week ago Vegas had the Twins as 150:1 odds to win the central. I'd say that was pretty generous, especially with the fact that Detroit is starting to play a little better and the White Sox just got a big boost to the lineup.

[Cap'n Piranha]

A week ago Vegas had the Twins as 150:1 odds to win the central. I'd say that was pretty generous, especially with the fact that Detroit is starting to play a little better and the White Sox just got a big boost to the lineup.

Did the Sox trade for someone else? I'm just assuming you're not talking about the guy hitting .233 with .315 OBP and a 14/39 BB/K ratio, as I would hardly qualify that as a Big boost.

[DaveW]

Did the Sox trade for someone else? I'm just assuming you're not talking about the guy hitting .233 with .315 OBP and a 14/39 BB/K ratio' date=' as I would hardly qualify that as a Big boost.[/quote']

 

Yes, because players never end up trending back towards their career numbers. I will take a look at what Youk has done in his other 3500 at bats and assume that he might, just maybe start hitting better then his current .233/.315/.377 line.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Did the Sox trade for someone else? I'm just assuming you're not talking about the guy hitting .233 with .315 OBP and a 14/39 BB/K ratio' date=' as I would hardly qualify that as a Big boost.[/quote']

 

I have a hard time believing Youk won't hit higher than that line for the rest of the season and if I'm not mistaken, that's still a huge improvement over what the Sox have been getting at third to this point.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Yes, because players never end up trending back towards their career numbers. I will take a look at what Youk has done in his other 3500 at bats and assume that he might, just maybe start hitting better then his current .233/.315/.377 line.

Or we could assume that, at age 33, his physical skills are declining, and that decline is simply happening more precipitously than last year. His BB/k is sharply down, but has been declining for the past 2 years. His groundball rate is sharply up, which for a guy who doesn't run well is not a good thing. His HR/fly ball rate is also well down, suggesting a decline in power, again, not surprising for an aging player never really known for his powerWill he hit better? Maybe. But this is not the Kevin Youkilis that gets on base at a nearly .400 clip and hits for power. Will he be better than Orlando Hudson? Almost assuredly, but it's not like the Sox just added an All-Star.

[Mr. Ed]

I have a hard time believing Youk won't hit higher than that line for the rest of the season and if I'm not mistaken, that's still a huge improvement over what the Sox have been getting at third to this point.

yes, the CHISOX 3B have been hitting worse than Nishioka-level production.

 

So anything Youkilis produces is better than what they've had.

[snepp]

No Cuddyer = No Magic = No Late Season Run

Literally and figuratively.

[Todd G]

Please do not drink the bong water.

[twinzgrl]

When the Twins went on their little winning streak a few weeks ago, I did get kind of excited about the possibility that we'd get out of the cellar. The playoffs? Not a snowball's chance in hell. I want them to prove me wrong, but they won't.

[Bark's Lounge]

A few things need to happen if the Twins are to make the playoffs

 

1. Some event will have to occur where all or most the team is exposed to gamma rays or some other kind of radioactive event, thus leading to at least half of the team developing super human strength and some baseball beneficial super powers. If this theoretically happens, I would imagine that a few of the players will perish because of their exposure to the nuclear happening and hopefully it would be less than more and we can get by with our lack of depth.

 

2. MLB decides not to add a Super Powers clause into the PED/Drug testing thingamajiggy until next season. If this is what MLB decides, maybe we will win a World Championship this year. The downfall is that the Twins Organization will have to start from ground zero next season player wise. We'll see what happens.

[Thrylos]

The chances for the Twins to make the "playoffs" are close to zip (unless they tie for the division or one of the wildcards and need a single playoff game; those are the only playoffs in baseball...)

But they still have some chances to make the post-season.

 

Pure math: They are 8 games behind the Sux and 5 behind Detroit (in the L column.) If they sweep the Sux they will be 5 games behind them. That's pretty close. But they got to make things happen and not sure that the field management has what it takes to make things happen, especially winning energy...

[snepp]

The chances for the Twins to make the "playoffs" are close to zip (unless they tie for the division or one of the wildcards and need a single playoff game; those are the only playoffs in baseball...)

But they still have some chances to make the post-season.

This post is the worse.

[108 Double Stitches]

1. Some event will have to occur where all or most the team is exposed to gamma rays or some other kind of radioactive event' date=' thus leading to at least half of the team developing super human strength and some baseball beneficial super powers.[/quote']

 

Can we suggest some possible super powers?

 

I suggest that a useful superpower for Plouffe would be to hit HRs when there are runners

on base. Pretty far fetched for Plouffe, I know. But it is gamma radiation.

[old nurse]

Some event will have to occur where all or most the team is exposed to gamma rays or some other kind of radioactive event, thus leading to at least half of the team developing super human strength and some baseball beneficial super powers.

 

 

I did not know it was a baseball superpower to be able to throw the ball over the plate wiith some form of movement that makes it somewhat difficult to hit the ball? I heard that many teams have players that can do that. Some teams I hear have someone who can throw the ball over the plate so well that it is real hard to hiit the ball when they throw it. Perhaps the gamma rays ought to hit the scouts so they can find decent pitchers.

[Bark's Lounge]

Can we suggest some possible super powers?

 

I suggest that a useful superpower for Plouffe would be to hit HRs when there are runners

on base. Pretty far fetched for Plouffe, I know. But it is gamma radiation.

I am assuming your response is negative - if it wasn't meant to be... sorry. Plouffe has to be in the top 1-5 3B HR hitters, he is playing average+ defense, he has raised his average form .150ish to .250ish in a month or so. What the hell else do you want. You should be rooting for the guy instead of being a player hater. Plouffe has a legitimate argument for making the All-Star team, although it is a long shot. I guess you must be a White Sox fan. I imagine you must like your club's trade for Youk.

[108 Double Stitches]

I am assuming your response is negative - if it wasn't meant to be... sorry.

Appology accepted. Way too many assumptions in your post.

 

I like Plouffe's progress. I like it a lot. But he is still really raw. His situational hitting is awful. He's

got his postion because the previous guy couldn't hack it. The general manager had to call him

out before his current run. And in prospect years, he is not young.

 

But he has been really hot, and that when this streak is over, what will it be? I am really happy his average is not .130 anymore. I want to believe Plouffe is growing into a full time regular 3B, a solution at a real position of need. So cautious optimism.

 

But what do I want for him? I want real development, not just a hot streak. If the guy just hits

20 solo HRs and he keeps leaving runners at 3rd base with 0 or 1 outs, his production is kind

of wash, if that. Your never as good as hotest streak, never as bad as your worst slump. So

I really don't want much different from him than what Terry Ryan wants to know -- what do the

Twins have in him?

 

His aggressive baserunning in the 2nd today was really nice to see. Keep it coming!

[Bark's Lounge]

Way too many assumptions in your post.

What assumptions? My post was a far fetched joke. If you are talking about my response to your response, be clear. Key me in dude. Are you scrutinized at your job all the time? When you are doing an above average job, are told only about your flaws and not commended on the things you do well. If your work performance stat sheet is above average, are you reamed by your boss for your mistakes? You seem to have this penchant for being the boss and a crumby one at that. If you have people who work under you... they will quit.

[glunn]

The chances for the Twins to make the "playoffs" are close to zip (unless they tie for the division or one of the wildcards and need a single playoff game; those are the only playoffs in baseball...)

But they still have some chances to make the post-season.

 

Thanks for correcting this. Please also note that ESPN is making the same mistake -- on its website ESPN labels this "% chance of making the Playoffs" -- they even capitalize "Playoffs".

 

You can see this at: http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

[glunn]

What assumptions? My post was a far fetched joke. If you are talking about my response to your response' date=' be clear. Key me in dude. Are you scrutinized at your job all the time? When you are doing an above average job, are told only about your flaws and not commended on the things you do well. If your work performance stat sheet is above average, are you reamed by your boss for your mistakes? You seem to have this penchant for being the boss and a crumby one at that. If you have people who work under you... they will quit.[/quote']

 

Hey, guys, let's keep in mind that we share the sacred bond of being Twins fans.

 

Two things that separates us from White Sox fans are that we can debate passionately while still being respectful and we don't eat bananas with our feet.

[Bark's Lounge]

Appology accepted. Way too many assumptions in your post.

 

I like Plouffe's progress. I like it a lot. But he is still really raw. His situational hitting is awful. He's

got his postion because the previous guy couldn't hack it. The general manager had to call him

out before his current run. And in prospect years, he is not young.

 

But he has been really hot, and that when this streak is over, what will it be? I am really happy his average is not .130 anymore. I want to believe Plouffe is growing into a full time regular 3B, a solution at a real position of need. So cautious optimism.

 

But what do I want for him? I want real development, not just a hot streak. If the guy just hits

20 solo HRs and he keeps leaving runners at 3rd base with 0 or 1 outs, his production is kind

of wash, if that. Your never as good as hotest streak, never as bad as your worst slump. So

I really don't want much different from him than what Terry Ryan wants to know -- what do the

Twins have in him?

 

His aggressive baserunning in the 2nd today was really nice to see. Keep it coming!

Dear Mr. 108 Double Stitches. I must apologize for my responses this evening. When I threw out my post this evening I was in a mindset of clowning around - I guess I was thrown off with your negative Plouffe responses. Because I am a Plouffetist, I took your responses too personally. For this I am ashamed. I have worked many arduous hours to find my Plouffetist center. Some might say I am one of the founders of Plouffetism, but as of now I feel like I have a lot more work to do. I hope I have not caused you to have negative energy. Let this post be the extended olive branch of truce and friendship. If you ever have a question about Plouffetism or need a compassionate Twins Daily member to vent upon. Search me out.

 

Bark

[Bark's Lounge]

Hey, guys, let's keep in mind that we share the sacred bond of being Twins fans.

 

Two things that separates us from White Sox fans are that we can debate passionately while still being respectful and we don't eat bananas with our feet.

You beat me to the punch. As you will see in my last post I am trying to make the peace.