Molitor's decisions

[Dan Engebretson]

All,

 

I usually stick to the front page and this is my first foray into the Forums section; perhaps this has been discussed.

 

I find myself wondering about some of Molitor's decisions (or lack of decisions).  A case in point is this past Saturday's game against the White Sox.  It is the top of the ninth, Twins are down by one (4-5 game) and need to score at least one run for the game to continue.  The scheduled batters are Herrmann, Robinson, and Schafer with Suzuki and Nunez on the bench and available to pinch-hit (I believe Escobar was out with new baby).  Neither Suzuki nor Nunez should be considered offensive juggernauts, but in my opinion both offer more offensive potential than any of the three scheduled batters and can replace them in the field if the Twins score and the game continues.

 

To me this seemed like a ready-made pinch-hit scenario, yet Molitor went with Herrmann, Robinson, and Schafer; all of whom struck out (Hermann swinging and Robinson and Schafer looking).  Did I miss something or was this a really-bad decision by Molitor?

 

Dan

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know, I probably would have pinch hit there.......but I think we should expect some growing pains with Molly, and show some patience. He's a rookie, we should expect him to struggle early, and get better during the year. I don't know how good/bad he will be, but I expect struggles right now, and I expect improvement during the year. Just like any rookie......

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, give him time but I haven't been impressed by his decisions yet either.  

 

He pinch hit Scafer for Nunez a few days ago when Chicago didn't have a lefty warming up, and then pinch hit Arcia for Robinson a batter later but Chicago had their lefty ready in time so Arcia faced him.  

 

He benched Arcia in game 3 against a righty.  

 

His bullpen is a mess.  I'm not sure how much of that is his fault and how much is the FO's fault but I don't think Gardy would have had these results.

 

He's sticking with Santana at short.  Give Gardy credit, he at least tried to get some offense out of CF.  Santana in center and Escobar at short makes the team better.  I could understand giving Hicks another shot in center (however unlikely) but Molitor didn't even give Santana an inning in center in ST.  Kind of closed a door that didn't need to be closed yet.

 

It's early but he doesn't seem to be defending his players.  Obviously, Hunter on opening day is an example but both Mauer and Plouffe have been frustrated by umpire strike zones.  I think Gardy would have been a bit vocal about it, if nothing else.

 

As Jesse at TT joked, he played his "get away" team in game 2 of the White Sox series.  I understand letting Nunez, Robinson and Herrmann get at-bats early in the season but I think he should let his starters get a rhythm first or at least not bench 4 starters in a game right away.

[Dan Engebretson]

The Schafer for Nunez pinch hit was another that confused me.  Based on each player's history, Nunez has the superior bat while Schafer is the superior outfielder.  It seems the better decision would have been for Nunez to hit and Schafer replace him in the field in the next half-inning.

 

I understand that there will be growing pains, but he seems to be missing some pretty obvious opportunities to improve the Twins' chances at winning games.

[Rosterman]

Yes, if we had Santana and Escobar both in the lineup...we would have one less of Schafer or Robinson, and probably a third catcher on the bench. If it was Fryer, we would have a bench that we would seldom have a need to go to at all. Period. Which is fine if you have a powerful starting nine. There are still questions on Vargas and Santana in their sophomore seasons. What should be done about Arcia and who can play there. What can be done about Hunter and should he play there. We believe Plouffe will find his bat. That the other players will hold their own. But there is a weakness in the Twins offense that is holding the field until the future MIGHT arrive. Rosario and Hicks and Buxton could all be in the outfield, better or worse than the current? Sano could push Plouffe to a utility role and joining Escobar, pushed back to the bench with Santana at short for sure. Add Hunter as a bench/bat DH/4th outfielder or Vargas. And Pinto as the backup catcher...you suddenly have a great bench and hopefully a solid nine on the field...come September!

[TheLeviathan]

I'll say this a month in, given the way many of the players have performed, the dismal start to the season, and other challenges - I'm pretty damn happy with the job Molitor is doing.

 

I don't feel like this would be a .500 team under Gardy.

[Craig Arko]

The entire staff's decisions about putting players on the DL and getting replacements up right away instead of lingering short-handed for a week is the greatest improvement so far. I expect a reasonable amount of that is Molitor, plus the fact there are finally viable options to call up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'll say this a month in, given the way many of the players have performed, the dismal start to the season, and other challenges - I'm pretty damn happy with the job Molitor is doing.

 

I don't feel like this would be a .500 team under Gardy.

They were .500 into June 2014 under Gardy, facing plenty of challenges...

[drivlikejehu]

Last year the Twins were .500 through 46 games and only 2 under after 74 games; at that point they also were 3rd in the division.

 

Reality wins out no matter who the manager is. The Twins, based on early results, are nowhere near being a true .500 team. Some combination of improved performance and roster shuffling could change that, of course, but absent that the Twins will start losing in earnest sooner or later.

[TheLeviathan]

They were .500 into June 2014 under Gardy, facing plenty of challenges...

We're likely going to disagree about which challenges were worse, but I maintained last year that MANY things went ridiculously right for the Twins that helped that. Those things just crashed to earth later. But how many players do the Twins have outperforming or even performing to expectations? When I look at what this team is doing individually it sure doesn't look like a .500 team.

[JB_Iowa]

 

 The Twins, based on early results, are nowhere near being a true .500 team. 

 

I don't think you can conclude anything based on "early results".  We knew they'd have a tough time in Detroit and it's always more difficult to win on the road.  So far the Twins are

 

0-3 at Detroit

1-2 at Chicago

2-1 vs. Royals at home

2-1 vs. Indians at home

1-2 at Royals

2-1 at ,Mariners

1-2 vs. Detroit at home

3-0 vs. White Sox at home

 

12-12

 

That first week was a disaster -- it is difficult to open on the road especially with some youngsters on the team.  Plus, they faced some of the best pitching in the league.

 

But now it looks more balanced.  I don't necesarily think the Twins will finish above .500 but they managed to climb out of their initial hole and now seem to have opportunities against other clubs in the division.  And frankly, looking at the standings, they seem pretty middle of the pack.

[JB_Iowa]

I will say that I think some of the pitching has exceeded expectations but there's lots of room for improvement at the plate and in the field.

 

The question is whether than can keep growing.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I will say that I think some of the pitching has exceeded expectations but there's lots of room for improvement at the plate and in the field.

 

The question is whether than can keep growing.

 

The pitching is the issue - they have allowed fewer runs than should be expected based on the peripherals, individual track records, etc.

 

The bullpen is 15th in ERA but 29th in xFIP. That disparity is not going to last. Either the Twins will make some moves or the bullpen will start costing them - badly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We're likely going to disagree about which challenges were worse, but I maintained last year that MANY things went ridiculously right for the Twins that helped that. Those things just crashed to earth later. But how many players do the Twins have outperforming or even performing to expectations? When I look at what this team is doing individually it sure doesn't look like a .500 team.

Look at our team April into June last year. Florimon, Kubel, Pelf, Correia, Nolasco, Deduno, Burton, Hicks, scuffling Mauer, Parmelee, Colabello back to earth, Morales -- it wasn't all overperformers, that is for sure.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Look at our team April into June last year. Florimon, Kubel, Pelf, Correia, Nolasco, Deduno, Burton, Hicks, scuffling Mauer, Parmelee, Colabello back to earth, Morales -- it wasn't all overperformers, that is for sure.

 

Not all of them were awful though, take just Colabello as an example.  I feel like you're getting caught up in the names, look at our stats - we have about three regular guys in the lineup that are putting up a respectable OPS.  

[TheLeviathan]

April 2014:

 

254/353/392 131 Runs Scored

 

April 2015 

 

243/301/342  86 Runs Scored

 

 

 

The pitching has been better this year, so far, however.  I would argue the fielding might be even worse, or is at least as bad.

 

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

We're likely going to disagree about which challenges were worse, but I maintained last year that MANY things went ridiculously right for the Twins that helped that. Those things just crashed to earth later. But how many players do the Twins have outperforming or even performing to expectations? When I look at what this team is doing individually it sure doesn't look like a .500 team.

The things that went right mostly came later in the season with Santana and Vargas.   What has gone right this year is Mauer, Plouffe, Milone, Pelfrey and Gibson.     Last year Florimon and Nolasco were going very wrong.   I am quite certain without being able to prove it that the Twins would have the same results give OR take a win under Gardy.   What has Molitor done that has turned things around?   Nothing has changed my own opinion that managers are overrated.    I believe hitting and pitching coaches have more effect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not all of them were awful though, take just Colabello as an example. I feel like you're getting caught up in the names, look at our stats - we have about three regular guys in the lineup that are putting up a respectable OPS.

We a had a couple better hitters in the early going last year, but Pelf and Correia each had ERAs near 8 a year ago too. And as Correia improved, some of those hitters crashed.

 

I think it is just way too early to tell, by W-L record, if Molitor is doing a better job than Gardy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

April 2014:

 

254/353/392 131 Runs Scored

 

April 2015

 

243/301/342 86 Runs Scored

 

 

 

The pitching has been better this year, so far, however. I would argue the fielding might be even worse, or is at least as bad.

And in May 2014, we scored 92 runs in 29 games, even worse than April 2015...

 

I am pretty sure some on this board last year made the argument that it was impressive that Gardy had that group around .500 into mid-June...

[drivlikejehu]

It's also just not correct to attribute wins and losses to a manager like that.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's also just not correct to attribute wins and losses to a manager like that.

 

Only if you believe a manager is worthless and interchangeable.  I'm not sure that's true.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The things that went right mostly came later in the season with Santana and Vargas.   What has gone right this year is Mauer, Plouffe, Milone, Pelfrey and Gibson.     

 

Milone was just demoted and until his last start there was clamoring to do the same for Gibson.  So three guys compared bad to dismal starts from Santana, Vargas, Hunter, Arcia, Schaeffer, Escobar, Dozier, Nolasco, Hughes, Stauffer, and Duensing.  I'm going to go out on a limb and call that a bit unbalanced. 

 

 

And in May 2014, we scored 92 runs in 29 games, even worse than April 2015

 

 

Get back to me in May then, this is purely from a perspective of one month in with all small sample sizes admitted.  That is a DRAMATIC difference in offense from April '14 to April '15.  The pitching disparity isn't even close to that.

[Kwak]

 

They were .500 into June 2014 under Gardy, facing plenty of challenges...

Th newspaper article I read today said May 24, 2014 was the last day the Twins were .500 (0-0, doesn't count).

[drivlikejehu]

 

Only if you believe a manager is worthless and interchangeable.  I'm not sure that's true.

 

Logical fallacy. Just because a manager can't pull wins out of thin air doesn't make the role "worthless" or "interchangeable."

 

For instance, a manager that builds confidence in his players may win more games as a result. But, using your approach, that manager gets no credit because the team performed as expected based on player performance.

 

A team winning more than expected based on individual player performance is just lucky. If a manager could accomplish that at will, he would be worth $50 million+ a year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

For instance, a manager that builds confidence in his players may win more games as a result. But, using your approach, that manager gets no credit because the team performed as expected based on player performance.

 

Speaking of fallacies: Didn't you just say it's flawed to use wins and losses to judge a manager and then....use wins as a measure for something a manager does well? (Mange the clubhouse)

 

All I did was attribute a win or two this month to things Molitor is doing - ranging from flexible lineups to in-game strategy to clubhouse management.  I don't think we get those 1-2 extra wins under Gardy for those same reasons, but that's just my opinion.  

[drivlikejehu]

 

Speaking of fallacies: Didn't you just say it's flawed to use wins and losses to judge a manager and then....use wins as a measure for something a manager does well? (Mange the clubhouse)

 

All I did was attribute a win or two this month to things Molitor is doing - ranging from flexible lineups to in-game strategy to clubhouse management.  I don't think we get those 1-2 extra wins under Gardy for those same reasons, but that's just my opinion.  

 

Actually, no. You'll notice when you quoted me that I said "like that." I was referring to your view that short-term luck is attributable to a manager.

 

I obviously did not attribute wins and losses to a manager's clubhouse management. In fact, my entire point was that it can't be measured. But that's not to say it doesn't exist at all.

[TheLeviathan]

 

In fact, my entire point was that it can't be measured. But that's not to say it doesn't exist at all.

 

So it exists but won't show up in wins and losses?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Get back to me in May then, this is purely from a perspective of one month in with all small sample sizes admitted. That is a DRAMATIC difference in offense from April '14 to April '15. The pitching disparity isn't even close to that.

Not so dramatic difference in Pythag vs actual record, though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Th newspaper article I read today said May 24, 2014 was the last day the Twins were .500 (0-0, doesn't count).

It was an approximation. They were 1 game under .500 at points in June, only 3 GB.

 

Am I the only one that remembers the deadline buyers vs sellers threads? We were viewed as big overachievers for nearly 3 months last year.

[drivlikejehu]

 

So it exists but won't show up in wins and losses?

 

I said it couldn't be measured, not that it wouldn't show up.

 

If you can't measure it, you can't assign a value to the manager for that aspect of his performance.

 

You either aren't reading my posts or are trolling...