ESPN- The Great Analytics Rankings... The Twins are not so Great

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hunter was signed to mollify the fan base.  It is hoped he will sell more tickets (especially season tickets), another batch of "HUNTER" jerseys, and concessions to game attendees.  It is also hoped he can be used to "refocus" the players, as well as the local media, "to the brand".  Defensive metrics aren't needed to make this decision, however if they actually supported the decision to sign Hunter, I am confident said metrics would have been cited.  Since said metrics didn't support this decision, Ryan stated "the eye test".

That's what I thought too. If Hunter isn't the outfielder he once was, at least he doesn't need to be taught the position from scratch (Colabello, et al). I'd rather have Hunter out there than Nunez at this point. Moving Arcia to left might be a blooper reel though. And Hunter can still swing a bat.

 

And after seeing what happened at Twins Fest and then Target Center last night... the Hunter signing is looking better to the point you mentioned.

[Kwak]

I'd like to see an example when Ryan actually cited metrics after the acquisition of a player. I'm not saying that quote doesn't exist but I can't remember ever hearing "we signed Player X because he underperformed his xFIP/metric/whatever".

I didn't say that!  My point was:  if metrics supported signing a player--that would have been cited, as well as "the eye test" (which was cited).

[jimmer]

I didn't say that!  My point was:  if metrics supported signing a player--that would have been cited, as well as "the eye test" (which was cited).

I'm waiting for him to sign someone metrics say WAS a good signing.  Wouldn't that have to happen first to see if he's cites metrics as one of the reasons? :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm waiting for him to sign someone metrics say WAS a good signing.

Phil Hughes.

 

To an extent, Ricky Nolasco (a perennial advanced metric underperformer).

[tobi0040]

Given Ryan's track record, and his commitment to Torii, it doesn't seem likely that Hunter would be traded until July 31 at the earliest-  a lot of Twins favorites weren't even moved until the end of August.

 

Some truth here, but Terry and Torii could very well have had a handshake agreement to move Torii to a contender whenever the Twins felt the mentorship has taken course.  The caveat here is I think Torii becomes a bench bat or platoon DH on a contending team versus an everyday guy

[Brock Beauchamp]

I didn't say that!  My point was:  if metrics supported signing a player--that would have been cited, as well as "the eye test" (which was cited).

And my point is that Ryan never cites metrics after acquiring a player, at least to my knowledge. Why would he start with Hunter?

[jimmer]

Phil Hughes.

 

To an extent, Ricky Nolasco (a perennial advanced metric underperformer).

yeah, I put the smiley face at the end of all that because, well, it was a joke. 

 

I am neither a Ryan basher or Ryan defender.  I go case by case.  He's obviously done some very good things as GM, his first go-around under very tight purse strings. Obviously he's gonna have his good signings and his bad, some that the metrics say are good and some that say are bad.  

 

The thing about the Hunter signing though, is that the metrics say he was horrible and I know my eyes, at least, agreed.  I don't know how it's possible he passed anyone's eye test unless someone is JUST looking at knowing the fundamentals (like where to throw, etc) and ignoring the rest (like range).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ah, I missed that. Nothing to see here. Carry on.

[jokin]

Some truth here, but Terry and Torii could very well have had a handshake agreement to move Torii to a contender whenever the Twins felt the mentorship has taken course.  The caveat here is I think Torii becomes a bench bat or platoon DH on a contending team versus an everyday guy

 

I hope this is the case, there is Twins precedent for moving fan favorite players to contending teams.  But Ryan generally has moved such players much later rather than sooner.  And Torii could easily end up platoon DHing in Minnesota.  I strongly fear that if Torii gets off to a good start offensively, as Suzuki did last year, I think it could be close to 50-50 that Torii is extended vs. traded.  (Obviously, the prospects will have a say in how this works out, as well).

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I disagree with many of you about the Hunter signing in 2015, I think we can all agree that we'll all need to drink away the pain if he's extended in 2016.

 

I, for one, don't see it happening.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We simply do not know how the Twins analyze players because they're one of the most tight-lipped teams in baseball.

We know that their #2 in command and recent interim GM (presumably with TR's blessing) went on the record as preferring RBI to SLG as a predictive statistic in 2010.

 

i have to imagine they are better than that now, but dismissing defensive metrics for the "eye test" still seems very plausible for this front office.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, signing Torii to play OF this year isn't the only piece of evidence we have.  TR also signed Willingham to play OF, and Doumit to play... anywhere.  Kubel and Colabello were penciled in as OF options last offseason, etc.  Not to mention the Delmon Young era.  I think they are habitually a little too willing/eager to punt OF defense, or at least sub-optimal at getting bats into the lineup without punting OF defense.

 

While I tend to believe that TR has no qualms with Torii's defense, I have to agree with others, that ultimately Torii to the Twins is the equivalent of Garnett to the Wolves right now.  It's putting butts in the seats on eyes on the tube, and maybe some fun into the locker room.

[nicksaviking]

It should be clear that the decision to sign Hunter was not based on metrics. 

 

Well not defensive metrics.  Everyone seems to forget that he was a pretty reliable bat last year.  Last ten years really.

[tobi0040]

Also, signing Torii to play OF this year isn't the only piece of evidence we have.  TR also signed Willingham to play OF, and Doumit to play... anywhere.  Kubel and Colabello were penciled in as OF options last offseason, etc.  Not to mention the Delmon Young era.  I think they are habitually a little too willing/eager to punt OF defense, or at least sub-optimal at getting bats into the lineup without punting OF defense.

 

While I tend to believe that TR has no qualms with Torii's defense, I have to agree with others, that ultimately Torii to the Twins is the equivalent of Garnett to the Wolves right now.  It's putting butts in the seats on eyes on the tube, and maybe some fun into the locker room.

 

Good call out. We have a history here of really, really bad outfield defenses.  Some of these were re-treads past 30 that were not good in their prime.

 

It is safe to say that our GM does not factor in outfield defense a ton in these decisions.  Either he just doesn't care or thinks the SABR folks have gotten ahead of themselves in quantifying its importance.  I think it is safe to assume that Willingham and Delmon Young failed the eye test.   I have had friends descibe Josh as pulling a tractor and Delmon Young playing on ice.  Relatively fair assessments IMO.

[jokin]

While I disagree with many of you about the Hunter signing in 2015, I think we can all agree that we'll all need to drink away the pain if he's extended in 2016.

 

I, for one, don't see it happening.

 

I hope this is how it works out, but I'm not 100%, closer to even money than 100% "no", especially if Torii has a good first half.  Extending veterans without solid reasons is what the Twins do  (Doumit, Pelfrey, Suzuki, Duensing*).

[USAFChief]

My opinion: were I building a MLB team, corner OF defense would be pretty low on my list of priorities.

 

I further believe current metrics overstate the importance of same.

[jokin]

My opinion: were I building a MLB team, corner OF defense would be pretty low on my list of priorities.

 

I further believe current metrics overstate the importance of same.

 

If the Twins were even just middle of the road in the corners, and had a not-great, but solid, stable CF, I'd agree with you completely.  Unfortunately, they have a pitching staff that has the worst K-rates, high contact rates, high FB%- which is the worst mix imaginable what with two OFers who grade out at the bottom of the major league heap, and laid even more exposed and barren without a take-charge CFer to cover for them.  As others have said, and I agree, the Twins OF is a bad two-fer- they fail both the metrics test and the eye test. 

[jimmer]

While I disagree with many of you about the Hunter signing in 2015, I think we can all agree that we'll all need to drink away the pain if he's extended in 2016.

 

I, for one, don't see it happening.

Did you see the Pelfrey resigning coming? :-)  If Hunter hits decently, he'll be back with us in 2016.

[tobi0040]

My opinion: were I building a MLB team, corner OF defense would be pretty low on my list of priorities.

 

I further believe current metrics overstate the importance of same.

 

In 600 at bats, a guy who gets 180 hits is a .300 hitter.  A guy that gets just 140 hits is a .233 hitter.  Huge difference.

 

Now if you assume the .233 hitter is a good defender with great range and the .300 hitter is Josh Willingham......how many balls does the good defender get to that the other guy does not?  That is the question.

 

If the good defender gets to one additional ball every four games, that is taking away the same 40 hits that is the difference between the .300 hitter and the .233 hitter.  If the good fielder gets to one additional ball every 8 games, then the BA breakeven is .300 versus .266. 

 

I can see where it plays a big role and I think on the open market the .300 hitter would have a job and the .233 hitter may not. 

 

I understand some nuance exists here, such as a HR being out of the hands of the OF. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Did you see the Pelfrey resigning coming? :-)  If Hunter hits decently, he'll be back with us in 2016.

The Pelfrey situation was somewhat surprising but not shocking. The Twins needed pitchers and by the loosest definition of the word, Mike Pelfrey is a pitcher.

 

The Twins outfield is likely to be a very different scenario in 2016 unless both Buxton and Rosario fall on their faces, in which case we'll all be crying so hard that it won't matter.

[JB_Iowa]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/294313461.html?page=1&c=y

 

Perkins seems to hope that in time the Twins will add another member to the analytics staff -- him.

[jimmer]

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/294313461.html?page=1&c=y

 

Perkins seems to hope that in time the Twins will add another member to the analytics staff -- him.

Well, as we all know, anyone who believes in that sabermetric stuff never played the game :-)

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins were even just middle of the road in the corners, and had a not-great, but solid, stable CF, I'd agree with you completely.  Unfortunately, they have a pitching staff that has the worst K-rates, high contact rates, high FB%- which is the worst mix imaginable what with two OFers who grade out at the bottom of the major league heap, and laid even more exposed and barren without a take-charge CFer to cover for them.  As others have said, and I agree, the Twins OF is a bad two-fer- they fail both the metrics test and the eye test. 

 

That's absolutely true.  Still, I don't want to go out and get defensive-minded corner outfielders simply as a band-aid for the terrible pitching.  The terrible pitching will have to be fixed regardless of the outfield defense before this club is poised to win again.

[jimmer]

If the Twins were even just middle of the road in the corners, and had a not-great, but solid, stable CF, I'd agree with you completely.  Unfortunately, they have a pitching staff that has the worst K-rates, high contact rates, high FB%- which is the worst mix imaginable what with two OFers who grade out at the bottom of the major league heap, and laid even more exposed and barren without a take-charge CFer to cover for them. 

This is good info and it's why our rotation has the largest gap (by a good chunk), in the majors between FIP and ERA.

[Monkeypaws]

And boom, Souhan's article on Perkins today drops. Perkins want the analytics job in the Twins organization:

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/294313461.html

 

 

edit: ah to late again I see.

 

Gotta get up pretty early in the morning to scoop Twins Daily....

[bird]

My opinion: were I building a MLB team, corner OF defense would be pretty low on my list of priorities.

 

I further believe current metrics overstate the importance of same.

 

I agree with this, although I also subscribe to the viewpoint that Ryan probably undervalues OF defense. Which is different from subscribing to a viewpoint that Ryan doesn't RECOGNIZE good OF defense. There just aren't a ton of good and affordable two-way outfielders on the FA market in a given year. I think his thought with Willingham for example was his bat and his homers on a power-less team offset his poor defense, particularly if you think about what sells tickets. So I think the notion that he makes a choice like that because of an unfamiliarity or skepticism about metrics is off base. Like I've said before, I think Ryan has a better idea about what to expect from Arcia and Hunter than any of us sitting there staring at the screen on our laptop. I know, blasphemous words.

 

I also don't get all the hand-wringing about such a temporary situation. Hunter is a stopgap, not a solution. The solution is some combination of Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, and maybe Kepler in a year or so. So with Hunter one and done in a year in which most here are predicting about 74 wins, why such a fuss?

[Mike Sixel]

Fear that it won't be one year? Fear that he will continue to undervalue defense? Boredom with old guys, when there are young guys to give a shot? Tiredness with marketing over quality of play?

[JB_Iowa]

And boom, Souhan's article on Perkins today drops. Perkins want the analytics job in the Twins organization:

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/294313461.html

 

 

edit: ah to late again I see.

 

Gotta get up pretty early in the morning to scoop Twins Daily....

 

 

Or stay up late.  

 

I do think Perkins has an interesting idea here but by the time he;s ready for that role maybe more players will be like him and already have an understanding of more of the metrics.

[tobi0040]

I agree with this, although I also subscribe to the viewpoint that Ryan probably undervalues OF defense. Which is different from subscribing to a viewpoint that Ryan doesn't RECOGNIZE good OF defense. There just aren't a ton of good and affordable two-way outfielders on the FA market in a given year. I think his thought with Willingham for example was his bat and his homers on a power-less team offset his poor defense, particularly if you think about what sells tickets. So I think the notion that he makes a choice like that because of an unfamiliarity or skepticism about metrics is off base. Like I've said before, I think Ryan has a better idea about what to expect from Arcia and Hunter than any of us sitting there staring at the screen on our laptop. I know, blasphemous words.

 

I also don't get all the hand-wringing about such a temporary situation. Hunter is a stopgap, not a solution. The solution is some combination of Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, and maybe Kepler in a year or so. So with Hunter one and done in a year in which most here are predicting about 74 wins, why such a fuss?

 

While I pointed out that that our OF defense could dramatically improve in a scenario of Buxton and Rosario or Buxton and Hicks, I guess the worry for me is that future decisions will be made with little to no regard to defense, just as they have in the past.  I could see a situation where, say the difference between Rosario's bat and Vargas's bat does not warrant having Arcia in the OF (the twins would be better off having Rosario in the OF, Arcia DH, and Vargas traded).  But the Twins instead trade Rosario.

 

Nothing in the past suggests to me that the Twins will put a premium on OF defense.  Cuddy, Kubel, Willingham, a 39 year old Hunter, Arcia, etc. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

My opinion: were I building a MLB team, corner OF defense would be pretty low on my list of priorities.

I'd agree, but that's not really the issue facing the Twins now.  They're not building a team from scratch and making priorities.  They have a team, with a good offense last year, great defense around the infield, and a great quantity of pitchers.  But they had one clear opening on the club, OF with the departure of Willingham, and a pretty obvious lack of acceptable corner OF defenders (and possibly any acceptable OF defenders at all, if Hicks's bat doesn't play).

 

But the team apparently looked at clubhouse attitude and player-mentor as a much bigger weakness.  That, to me, feels closer to the perceived "proven closer" and "infield speed" weaknesses we felt we had to address in 2010-2011, as opposed to a real, tangibly addressable on-field weakness.