2015 draft thread

[gunnarthor]

 

Which Kyle? Funkhouser has been pretty mediocre so far, and even before that, a lot of people thought he was bound for relief.

Kyle Cody, my apologies.  I was thinking his name was Cody Kyle.  He's a 6' 7" RHP from Kentucky.  He's been pretty good so far this season.  Was a top 20 talent coming into the year but might end up a top 5 or 10 guy.  Hits 97 on occasion and sits in the 93-95 range.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Aiken is my first choice. I'm not really enamored with the college pitchers and none look like the ace type (and those that do won't be there at 6) and the Twins rotation in the short term is pretty full. I'd rather go with the upside of an Aiken (if by chance he's there), another high upside HS P, or a bat. If Happ truly has the best bat in the draft, I could see grabbing him as the corner OF is certainly not accounted for, and even if that problem solves itself, it presents an opportunity to trade someone for something.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Kyle Cody, my apologies.  I was thinking his name was Cody Kyle.  He's a 6' 7" RHP from Kentucky.  He's been pretty good so far this season.  Was a top 20 talent coming into the year but might end up a top 5 or 10 guy.  Hits 97 on occasion and sits in the 93-95 range.  

Ok, yeah, then I agree with you.

[cmb0252]

Draft questions from Law's chat today:

 

Are you planning to do another draft prospects list soon? If so, where would Dillon Tate come in at this point?

Klaw (1:12 PM)

 

It's either next week or the week after. He's top 5 at the moment, which reflects both how good his stuff has been but also how bad the top of this class has been.

 

Had Kyle Cody pitched himself into a top 10 pick yet?

Klaw (1:31 PM)

 

No. You can't really do that, not in most cases; if the stuff improves, or the body changes for the better, that's one thing, but even the most analytically-focused teams are still doing more than just drafting off performance.

 

So....how did Allard look when you saw him? Still worthy of possibly going 1-1?

Klaw (1:32 PM)

 

I think I saw the worst outing he's had in two years. Stuff was good, delivery is great, body is great, didn't throw strikes.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Also keep an eye on Kentucky's Kyle Cody, his 3.43 ERA masks a sub 1.00 WHIP, a .192 avg. against, great peripherals (26K only 3 BB in 21 innings) and he has the build (6'7'' 245 lbs.).  He also throws 97 mph.

 

It would be in keeping with theTwins current collection of Kentucky products. Sounds like Meyer jr.

[cmb0252]

BA's week 5 draft prospect stat round up:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-5-4/

 

Questions from McDaniel's chat today:

 

Thoughts on Kolby Allard. His seemingly effortless delivery and stuff have me very interested for the Phillies at 10. Do you think he will be in that range?

 

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll see him a week for tomorrow in NC. He’s somewhere in the 5-15 area depending on his spring.

 

Ian Happ – did you expect this much power from him? Already 5 HRs which is basically his high the last 2 seasons and 6 doubles

 

Kiley McDaniel: Good college hitters with power do stuff like this when they’re better than everyone else. He’s a 55+ hitter with 55+ game power. Probably the best bat in the draft.

 

Can Quantrill still challenge for 1.1 even after the injury?

 

Kiley McDaniel: The 2016 draft class is crazy deep. Rankings on that coming soon. I wasn’t leading the Quantrill 1-1 bandwagon, he’s just one of the top 10 quality guys. Now he’ll be returning after the season starts in a crowded field. Hard to see him going top 3.

 

Sorry if this has been answered already, can you give an update on Brady Aiken? Also, early draft question, if you had 2 first round picks that would be the time to go for high upside guys right? Just from a game theory perspective that makes sense.

 

Kiley McDaniel: Depends on the specific player, can’t just dogmatically go for one type of player. Aiken should be pitching on Thursday, about 45 pitches or so for his first outing of the year. I’ll be down in Florida once he gets going full-speed to take a look.

 

so I’m a student at Illinois, and I’m getting pretty hyped about Tyler Jay. Is there any chance he’s actually legit or am I delusional?

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: Very good chance to go in the 1st round

[cmb0252]

And down goes Aiken in his first start.....

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/brady-aiken-leaves-start-early/

[cmb0252]

PG article on Bickford:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=10996

 

Also a draft pack on several of the top HS players (behind pay wall but the starting part about Allard is available for free):

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=11009

 

Talking about Allard Law did a write up last week about him (insider). He said the following about Allard's first poor outing:

 

"Allard wasn't at his best, struggling to locate his fastball most of the night, walking four hitters in four innings. He was 89-93 mph with some deception on the fastball, getting at least six swings and misses on the pitch by my count, and his curveball at 74-77 is one of the best in the draft from any pitcher, high school or college. The breaking ball has very tight rotation with true two-plane break, and he had more command of it on Thursday than he did of the fastball, using the pitch to get ahead or to try to get a swing and miss from right-handed hitters by throwing it at their back feet. He did flash a pair of changeups in the third inning, 82-83 with hard tumbling action.

 

Allard doesn't have much effort to his delivery, with a loose, quick arm and great extension out front that helps the fastball play up while getting that bite on his curveball. He hasn't had an outing this erratic all spring, but it wasn't the kind of outing I was hoping to see -- it was an opponent he should have just overpowered with stuff, but to their credit they waited him out and ended up getting into a number of hitters' counts against him. I still see him as a top 10 pick, probably a top-five talent, assuming this outing was a blip and not a sign that throwing strikes will be an issue going forward."

 

Full insider article here that also has info on draft prospects Herbert and Molnar:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post/_/id/3676/top-prep-pitcher-struggles-to-find-rhythm

[gunnarthor]

 

And down goes Aiken in his first start.....

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/brady-aiken-leaves-start-early/

Oh, that's horrible for a number of reasons.  Hopefully he comes back ok.

[cmb0252]

BA writer J.J. Cooper wrote a top 25 HS draft prospect article back in February for Athlon which I don't believe was posted here:

 

http://athlonsports.com/mlb/top-25-high-school-prospects-2015-mlb-draft

[cmb0252]

Oh, that's horrible for a number of reasons.  Hopefully he comes back ok.

I feel horrid for Aiken. Went from being the #1 draft pick to this. Hopefully it isn't major.

[gunnarthor]

 

I feel horrid for Aiken. Went from being the #1 draft pick to this. Hopefully it isn't major.

Sadly, Astros sites are pretty happy about the injury.

[diehardtwinsfan]

And down goes Aiken in his first start.....

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/brady-aiken-leaves-start-early/

I really hope he had an insurance policy that pays the difference between what he would have made and what he will make if he's injured...

 

On that note, say this is worst case and it's a TJS. He will probably be there at 6. Do the Twins go ahead and draft him and (if he agrees) sign him under slot (probably in the 2-3M range) knowing he's essentially out until at best rookie ball starts up next season at the best and all of 2016 at worst. Then use that cap money to get someone that falls into the 2nd? I could see that being a good investment if they think there's some high upside HS talent that will fall due to signability issues.

[Paul Pleiss]

I don't think the Astros are happy about the Aiken news. If they are, they're probably not good people. I think the Astros, all things considered, would have been much happier if Aiken had signed with them and the 'stros were able to sign the rest of their 2014 draft picks as well. Even if Aiken goes down and has to go under the knife, I still think the Astros would rather have signed everyone last season.

[gunnarthor]

 

I really hope he had an insurance policy that pays the difference between what he would have made and what he will make if he's injured...

On that note, say this is worst case and it's a TJS. He will probably be there at 6. Do the Twins go ahead and draft him and (if he agrees) sign him under slot (probably in the 2-3M range) knowing he's essentially out until at best rookie ball starts up next season at the best and all of 2016 at worst. Then use that cap money to get someone that falls into the 2nd? I could see that being a good investment if they think there's some high upside HS talent that will fall due to signability issues.

It'll depend on the medicals, of course.  But I like the idea.  A healthy Aiken is supposed to be the best talent in this draft and seeing how well Gioltio came back from TJS, I'd rather they do that.  But it's a pretty risky bet.

[markos]

 

I really hope he had an insurance policy that pays the difference between what he would have made and what he will make if he's injured...

On that note, say this is worst case and it's a TJS. He will probably be there at 6. Do the Twins go ahead and draft him and (if he agrees) sign him under slot (probably in the 2-3M range) knowing he's essentially out until at best rookie ball starts up next season at the best and all of 2016 at worst. Then use that cap money to get someone that falls into the 2nd? I could see that being a good investment if they think there's some high upside HS talent that will fall due to signability issues.

I bet a lot of teams' fans are thinking about this right now. Matt Garrioch joked on twitter last night that he already knows who the Nationals will be drafting. I would be on board with this plan, except that the Twins gave away their 2nd-round pick to sign Santana. They don't draft again until #73. That is a long time to wait and hope that someone talented falls.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't think the Astros are happy about the Aiken news. If they are, they're probably not good people. I think the Astros, all things considered, would have been much happier if Aiken had signed with them and the 'stros were able to sign the rest of their 2014 draft picks as well. Even if Aiken goes down and has to go under the knife, I still think the Astros would rather have signed everyone last season.

Astros FO is, hopefully, not celebrating over this but Astro fans sites are.  crawfishboxes - their TwinkieTown - already has a couple different fanposts up on it and most comment sections have some pretty rough comments toward him. 

[nytwinsfan]

Well this just sucks. Hope he is ok.

[Mike Sixel]

Man, good luck to Aiken. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I bet a lot of teams' fans are thinking about this right now. Matt Garrioch joked on twitter last night that he already knows who the Nationals will be drafting. I would be on board with this plan, except that the Twins gave away their 2nd-round pick to sign Santana. They don't draft again until #73. That is a long time to wait and hope that someone talented falls.

The difference being is that there's only 5 picks in front of us and 2 of them cannot draft Aiken. I'd hazard a guess that at least one person falls... whether it be a Sean Manaea type situation or a talented HS kid who's a bit more of a project that will take a 7 figure sum to pry away from college. But someone will fall, we jut don't know who.

 

The real issue trying to quantify the risk/reward of the scenario: Aiken + risk plus better value at #73 > whomever they are passing up. I'm sure there's some formula the Twins use to figure this out... Might be a good question for Jack Goin if he pops back up here. I'm sure the numbers are intellectual property, but I wonder if he could shed some light on how that works within the org.

[cmb0252]

Matuella's final line:6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K. According to Jesse Burkhart he showed top 5 stuff. Hit 97 in the 3rd. Last pitch in the 5th was 94.

 

Kirby's final line: 6 IP, 6H, 2ER, 4BB, 11k. Michael Lananna noted his change up looked good but command was off.

 

Kiley heard Tate was "doing Tate things". 93-94 in the first and hit 96. I believe law is there so might get an article tomorrow.

[cmb0252]

Astros FO is, hopefully, not celebrating over this but Astro fans sites are.  crawfishboxes - their TwinkieTown - already has a couple different fanposts up on it and most comment sections have some pretty rough comments toward him.

 

That's horrid that a fan base would be so classless. I understand not liking an athlete but this is a 19 year old amateur. As a twins fan who currently lives in Houston, at least for one more month, no one I talked to in person displayed any enjoyment of the injury. Most people I know blame the Astros front office, not Aiken for not signing.

[cmb0252]

Mother fu........... From Nathan rode:

 

LHP Kolby Allard out 6 weeks with stress reaction in his back per his coach. John Manuel is hearing the same thing.

[nicksaviking]

I hope this turns out to be nothing, I really don't want the Astros proven right, even though they actually may have been on to something. Seems if they saw this issue due to his medicals they might not actually be the villain after all. Which would make those of is roasting them the villains?

[gunnarthor]

 

I hope this turns out to be nothing, I really don't want the Astros proven right, even though they actually may have been on to something. Seems if they saw this issue due to his medicals they might not actually be the villain after all. Which would make those of is roasting them the villains?

I think they could have seen the issue and still been the villain.  There had been previous examples of abnormal UCLs - Dickey being the most famous - and that usually cost a few hundred thousand, not 3m as their first post-medical offer was.  I'm pretty sure the Astros were using the abnormality to try and use Aiken's money to sign others which is not how negotiations under the CBA are supposed to happen.  And, had they not settled with Nix, there probably would have been a decision from the arbitrator that said as much.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think they could have seen the issue and still been the villain.  There had been previous examples of abnormal UCLs - Dickey being the most famous - and that usually cost a few hundred thousand, not 3m as their first post-medical offer was.  I'm pretty sure the Astros were using the abnormality to try and use Aiken's money to sign others which is not how negotiations under the CBA are supposed to happen.  And, had they not settled with Nix, there probably would have been a decision from the arbitrator that said as much.

Yeah this...  No question on a medical issue, but this isn't a situation where he lied or anything like that.  They drafted him and had a deal in place which was rescinded with a ridiculous counter proposal.  Had they countered initially with 5M, I wouldn't be surprised if they had agreed on something in between.  But they got greedy and negotiated with Nix in very bad faith.  Keep in mind the kid doesn't get to choose his employer.  That CBA is in place to protect draftees.  The Stros failed royally here, and combine that with a few other situations, I think someone in the front office needs to step down for ethical reasons.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Aiken will fall to the Twins at #6 now. I'd draft him in a heartbeat.