Which Team Is The Real Twins?

[Loosey]

As we all know the Twins start to the season was abysmal. However, as of late the starting pitching has steadied and the offense has shown flashes of scoring in bunches. They are now winning series and are 7-3 in their last 10. So my question is down the stretch which team does everyone expect to see, the early season team that couldn't win a game or the current team that is plodding along winning series putting up a respectable record?

[stringer bell]

I expected the Twins team we've seen in the past three weeks. The injuries to Blackburn, Pavano and Baker made an already underwhelming rotation into the worst in the major leagues. This team is improved offensively and defensively. The bullpen is light years better than last year and they are playing more fundamentally sound baseball. Competent starting pitching will make them respectable.

[twinsnorth49]

I expect things to continue the way they have for the last month or so. If the rotation can keep it up to a similar degree the offense is proving they can get it done from a variety of players, especially once Mauer comes back. Anytime one of our starters puts in a QS I like our chances with how good our pen is.

[JB_Iowa]

I expect it to even out to about the .444 pace I predicted (72 wins overall). To do that, they would have to win 50 of the next 106 which should be do-able.

 

I'd like to see them exceed that but I don't really expect it.

[Mike Sixel]

Neither. I expect to see a team that would win around 75 or so games, so neither a team that only wins 30% of its games, and 100% not a team that wins 70% of its games.

[James]

I bet a friend of mine $100 that the Twins would win more than 69 games. The beginning of the season was looking like I would definitely lose that money, but now I'm pretty confident that they're going to win 70-75 games. A lot of that still depends on things like health and any trades we end up making, but I agree with most here that we'll see a team that plays somewhere between the two extremes we have been seeing.

[Mauerzy4Prez]

The team that started at the beginning of the season had so many different factors contributing to their problems, that was for sure NOT who this team really is. So many new faces, lack of respectable starting pitching, and the big boys slumping early really put the Twins behind the 8-ball. As long as our starting pitchers keep putting the ball over the plate and giving our team a chance to win every game, I feel we will continue this recent trend.

 

Maybe this is just my optimism getting the best of me but in 2006 on June 7th the Twins were 25-33, had just released washed up veterans like Tony Bautista, Juan Castro, Kyle Loshe, and called on the young guns from the Red Wings to fill the void. They went 9-1 in the next 10 games and went through a month of dominating inter league play with a 16-2 record.... This was all a set up for one of the most memorable games I have ever been to for the Twins (game 163).

[glanzer]

I expect them to continue to play poorly against the elite teams and play competitively as they have of late against the weaker teams. Lucky for the Twins, those elite teams are spaced out a bit over their final 106 games rather than that absurd April schedule which will hopefully keep them out of an extended slump.

[IdahoPilgrim]

If they stay healthy and their rotation remains halfway decent - I'd expect them to play slightly under 500 ball the rest of the way. But for the most part they've been very lucky to not have a key injury to the lineup; somebody's bound to go down before the season is over. If they trade any of the better players for prospects, or the rotation falters again - we're back to 400 ball at best.

[Curt]

Lest we forget, last year's Twins were:

 

17-36 (.320) through May,

17-9 (.654) in June, and

29-54 (.349) after June.

[jwestbrock]

I figured this team had a chance to win around 80 games if the bats did what most people thought they would and the pitching was even slightly below average. In their last 29 games, they are 15-14. We can't erase the brutal start, but I think the last 29 games is more indicative of their abilities than the first 27 games. With that in mind, if they maintain a .500 pace they will end up with about 75 wins, which I think most felt they could do, but it all hinges on the guys who started the year pitching in the Rochester rotation and Liriano keeping up a solid pace, otherwise we could be in for a long summer again.

[stringer bell]

The team that started at the beginning of the season had so many different factors contributing to their problems, that was for sure NOT who this team really is. So many new faces, lack of respectable starting pitching, and the big boys slumping early really put the Twins behind the 8-ball. As long as our starting pitchers keep putting the ball over the plate and giving our team a chance to win every game, I feel we will continue this recent trend.

 

Maybe this is just my optimism getting the best of me but in 2006 on June 7th the Twins were 25-33, had just released washed up veterans like Tony Bautista, Juan Castro, Kyle Loshe, and called on the young guns from the Red Wings to fill the void. They went 9-1 in the next 10 games and went through a month of dominating inter league play with a 16-2 record.... This was all a set up for one of the most memorable games I have ever been to for the Twins (game 163).

I don't think there was a Game 163 for the Twins in '06. There was in '08 (lost 1-0 to the Sox) and '09 (crazy extra inning win vs. Detroit). In '06 the Twins ran down the Tigers to win the division, sweeping their last series while Detroit was losing. The fans stayed in the dome and watched the Tigers blow a late lead on the last day.

[by jiminy]

I'm a little worried that the recent respectable streak is built on a mirage. I agree the offense and bullpen seem fine, but remain very concerned about starting pitching. Can we really expect the string of quality starts from marginal minor league starters to continue? Is there any reason to be confident about the health and consistent performance of the veterans? I would not be surprised to see the starting pitching collapse into wretchedness again. I hope not, but it's hard to predict .500 ball for the rest of the season with this rotation.

[James]

I don't think there was a Game 163 for the Twins in '06. There was in '08 (lost 1-0 to the Sox) and '09 (crazy extra inning win vs. Detroit). In '06 the Twins ran down the Tigers to win the division, sweeping their last series while Detroit was losing. The fans stayed in the dome and watched the Tigers blow a late lead on the last day.

You are correct. I was at that game at the dome. I have never heard so many people chanting "Let's go Royals" at a home Twins game before or since.

[jokin]

 

Maybe this is just my optimism getting the best of me but in 2006 on June 7th the Twins were 25-33, had just released washed up veterans like......, ......., and Kyle Loshe........

The feel-good memories and optimism are distorting your concept of Lohse, who was hardly "washed up" at age 27. All it took was a good managerial and coaching staff at the Cardinals for Kyle to realize his full potential. What did the Twins have to show for Lohse? Zach Ward??? Wouldn't Lohse's $11.8 Million salary would look far better in the Twins current payroll structure than Pavano's $9 Mil?

[Mauerzy4Prez]

You are correct. I was at that game at the dome. I have never heard so many people chanting "Let's go Royals" at a home Twins game before or since.

Aahhhh yes. you are both right, I was thinking of the 09' game 163, which correct me if I'm wrong was the last regular season game at the dome right?

[Mauerzy4Prez]

The feel-good memories and optimism are distorting your concept of Lohse, who was hardly "washed up" at age 27. All it took was a good managerial and coaching staff at the Cardinals for Kyle to realize his full potential. What did the Twins have to show for Lohse? Zach Ward??? Wouldn't Lohse's $11.8 Million salary would look far better in the Twins current payroll structure than Pavano's $9 Mil?

I actually almost excluded him from this when I wrote it, and you are right he is probably not washed up like the others... just needed a change of scenery.

[PeanutsFromHeaven]

I expect that the Twins will be closer to .500 up until the trade deadline, then (depending on how big a fire sale it is) back to a .400-ish record through the end of the year. But hey, if it leads to prospects, I won't complain

[CDog]

The feel-good memories and optimism are distorting your concept of Lohse, who was hardly "washed up" at age 27. All it took was a good managerial and coaching staff at the Cardinals for Kyle to realize his full potential. What did the Twins have to show for Lohse? Zach Ward??? Wouldn't Lohse's $11.8 Million salary would look far better in the Twins current payroll structure than Pavano's $9 Mil?

Definitely shouldn't have been in the washed up list, but speaking of distorted concepts of Lohse...this is one of those things that somehow has taken life with little basis in fact that he somehow became much better after the Twins. He's been remarkably similar as an ex-Twin as he was as a Twin.

[greengoblinrulz]

Definitely shouldn't have been in the washed up list, but speaking of distorted concepts of Lohse...this is one of those things that somehow has taken life with little basis in fact that he somehow became much better after the Twins. He's been remarkably similar as an ex-Twin as he was as a Twin.

he had reached the point of no return with Rick Anderson tho. Andywas no longer getting anything out of him & they had to dump him for nothing......then he returned to form. Kind of like Jose MiJares this year also.....or Frankie Liriano next yr. Or how about not getting anything out of RA Dickey but repeatedly giving Nick Blackburn chance after chance (tho contract dictates that)

[CDog]

he had reached the point of no return with Rick Anderson tho. Andywas no longer getting anything out of him & they had to dump him for nothing......then he returned to form. Kind of like Jose MiJares this year also.....or Frankie Liriano next yr. Or how about not getting anything out of RA Dickey but repeatedly giving Nick Blackburn chance after chance (tho contract dictates that)

I assume your claim is that Mijares is a much different pitcher in this third of a season than he was with the Twins...I think? How is that like Lohse who was almost exactly the same before and after? And how does either necessarily have anything to do with Anderson? Especially when Lohse has been with three organizations since leaving and has been the same guy across those three as he was here? Even more confused about the Dickey/Blackburn comparison in regard to this thread and my post.

[jokin]

Definitely shouldn't have been in the washed up list, but speaking of distorted concepts of Lohse...this is one of those things that somehow has taken life with little basis in fact that he somehow became much better after the Twins. He's been remarkably similar as an ex-Twin as he was as a Twin.

The statistical(ly significant) similar, but definitely improved across-the-board, life of its own:

 

Lohse 2002-2007: OBA: .281/WHIP: 1.45/K-BB 1.91/HR-9: 1.27/GB%: 37/ERA: 4.80/FIP: 4.68

 

Lohse 2008-2012: OBA: .268/WHIP: 1.32/K-BB 2.34/HR-9: .89/GB%: 44/ERA: 4.16/FIP: 3.99

 

I think it's fair to say Lohse matured and blossomed in a new setting and would look a lot better in the Twins rotation in 2012 than Zach Ward.

[Montecore]

And, Dickey was competent plus while he was here and they just threw him away like garbage. Lohse showed signs of being good while he was here, but , again didn't fit the procrustean Twins mold and was junked. Who made these decisions? My guess is Gardenhire who has to have a player suck up to him to be considered good. He's a ****ing idiot.

[James Richter]

I've set the first 36 games aside. That was the low point when you consider winning% (.278) combined with games under .500 (-16). The offense was hitting .235/.313/.350 with 3.3 R/G, pitching had 5.28 ERA and 5.4 K/9, Run Differential was -72. In game #37, Morneau came off the DL and brought some power back to the lineup. In the 20 games since the offense is hitting .264/.329/.425 with 5.2 R/G, the pitching has a 4.58 ERA and 6.7 K/9, and the Differential is +2 (due to too many unearned runs). Those numbers are sustainable. All things being equal, I'd expect the Twins to sit give or take 12 games under .500 for the rest of the season. The question is whether they'll hit a hot streak like the White Sox have been on recently, and how much such a streak would offset the hole they've dug themselves.

[CDog]

The statistical(ly significant) similar, but definitely improved across-the-board, life of its own:

 

Lohse 2002-2007: OBA: .281/WHIP: 1.45/K-BB 1.91/HR-9: 1.27/GB%: 37/ERA: 4.80/FIP: 4.68

 

Lohse 2008-2012: OBA: .268/WHIP: 1.32/K-BB 2.34/HR-9: .89/GB%: 44/ERA: 4.16/FIP: 3.99

 

I think it's fair to say Lohse matured and blossomed in a new setting and would look a lot better in the Twins rotation in 2012 than Zach Ward.

Lohse didn't play for the Twins in '07, nor half of '06. He moved from AL to NL where fewer runs are scored. Scoring has also been coming down in both leagues overall making post-move numbers lower than pre-move (the league change and the scoring trend account for about half the small ERA/FIP differences). And his best year post-Twins was 2011 (and thus far 2012 is following suit), which is five years after he left the Twins.

[twinsnorth49]

And, Dickey was competent plus while he was here and they just threw him away like garbage. Lohse showed signs of being good while he was here, but , again didn't fit the procrustean Twins mold and was junked. Who made these decisions? My guess is Gardenhire who has to have a player suck up to him to be considered good. He's a ****ing idiot.

Well there were 3 f***ing idiots preceding Gardy who also dumped Dickey, give me a break, choosing him and Lohse as examples is convenient logic.

[jokin]

Lohse didn't play for the Twins in '07, nor half of '06. He moved from AL to NL where fewer runs are scored. Scoring has also been coming down in both leagues overall making post-move numbers lower than pre-move (the league change and the scoring trend account for about half the small ERA/FIP differences). And his best year post-Twins was 2011 (and thus far 2012 is following suit), which is five years after he left the Twins.

 

In my initial post, I need to point out I plainly stated I wasn't doing a Twins-Cards comparison, I was suggesting that it was a matter of Lohse finding the right franchise and then a comparison vs. all the rest. There are ways to adjust for the league differences and the relative decline in overall scoring ( FYI, as an aside- The difference between the leagues' ERA was 4% from 2002-2007 and it remained 4% from 2008-2012). There are 1.5 years of NL pitching stats embedded in Lohse's 02-07 stats, negating a good chunk of the AL/NL differential. For example, Lohse's ERA in the first half of his career is 7% above league average ERA (4.5 yrs. AL/1.5 yrs. NL), while his second-half career ERA is only 2% above NL averages for the same period- but that's not all. Adjusting and coupling that number with his improved FIP relative to ERA of the NL average (another 1.6% increase relative to his first half career relative ERA/FIP ratio, indicates that Lohse is close to league average in ERA, indicating a just-under 7% improvement in his pitching performance relative to the league he played in, from the first half of his career.

 

Again, this may have just been a matter of maturity, and I think we may be talking past each other. By all accounts, Lohse is very happy in his mid-end starting role in St Louis, in contrast to the Twins and fans giving up on him, followed by the Twins giving him away for nothing, they simply didn't know what they had and dumped him at the EXACT LOW POINT of his career (WHIP: 1.65/ERA: 7.07). I freely admit to being among the frustrated while he was here, but he obviously had a healthy arm that had unappreciated value to a low-budget team replete with a lack of pitching depth. Can we agree that his subsequent career has merited being worth more than Zach Ward?

[CDog]

In my initial post, I need to point out I plainly stated I wasn't doing a Twins-Cards comparison, I was suggesting that it was a matter of Lohse finding the right franchise and then a comparison vs. all the rest. There are ways to adjust for the league differences and the relative decline in overall scoring ( FYI, as an aside- The difference between the leagues' ERA was 4% in 2007 and it remains 4% in 2012). There are 1.5 years of NL pitching stats embedded in Lohse's 02-07 stats, negating a good chunk of the AL/NL differential. For example, Lohse's ERA in the first half of his career is 7% above league average ERA (4.5 yrs. AL/1.5 yrs. NL), while his second-half career ERA is only 2% above NL averages for the same period- but that's not all. Adjusting and coupling that number with his improved FIP relative to ERA of the NL average (another 1.6% increase relative to his first half career relative ERA/FIP ratio, indicates that Lohse is close to league average in ERA, indicating a just-under 7% improvement in his pitching performance relative to the league he played in, from the first half of his career.

 

Again, this may have just been a matter of maturity, and I think we may be talking past each other. By all accounts, Lohse is very happy in his mid-end starting role in St Louis, in contrast to the Twins and fans giving up on him, followed by the Twins giving him away for nothing, they simply didn't know what they had and dumped him at the EXACT LOW POINT of his career (WHIP: 1.65/ERA: 7.07). I freely admit to being among the frustrated while he was here, but he obviously had a healthy arm that had unappreciated value to a low-budget team replete with a lack of pitching depth. Can we agree that his subsequent career has merited being worth more than Zach Ward?

No, you did not plainly state that you were talking about Cards vs. pre-Cards. You made comments both about the Cardinals and about the time and circumstance of Lohse leaving the Twins. And quoted a post about Lohse leaving the Twins. As long as I'm here, the difference in AL/NL ERA was not 4% in 2007, although I'm not sure what your point in bringing that up is. But I would agree that it's clear you're talking about something different than I am (I'm still not sure what point that is), which makes me wonder why you keep quoting my posts to talk about a different thing.

[twinsnorth49]

No, you did not plainly state that you were talking about Cards vs. pre-Cards. You made comments both about the Cardinals and about the time and circumstance of Lohse leaving the Twins. And quoted a post about Lohse leaving the Twins. As long as I'm here, the difference in AL/NL ERA was not 4% in 2007, although I'm not sure what your point in bringing that up is. But I would agree that it's clear you're talking about something different than I am (I'm still not sure what point that is), which makes me wonder why you keep quoting my posts to talk about a different thing.

It's called a smokescreen.

[jokin]

No, you did not plainly state that you were talking about Cards vs. pre-Cards.

 

All it took was a good managerial and coaching staff at the Cardinals for Kyle to realize his full potential.

 

 

There is an apparent reading comprehension problem in understanding a fairly straightforward comment. I am coming to the conclusion that this isn't a comprehension problem, as you write quite well, the only conclusion I can come to is you are employed by the Twins or take your loyalty to new levels of extremes.