Which Team Is The Real Twins?

[jokin]

As long as I'm here, the difference in AL/NL ERA was not 4% in 2007, although I'm not sure what your point in bringing that up is. But I would agree that it's clear you're talking about something different than I am (I'm still not sure what point that is), which makes me wonder why you keep quoting my posts to talk about a different thing.

OK, I'm going back on my comprehension theory back to the original supposition. My point was pretty straightforward about Lohse's improvement as he matured, demonstrated conclusively, adjusting for the AL/NL differences.

 

I did speak with insufficient clarity about the 4% difference in ERA. As I was computing Lohse's stats for the two eras of his career relative to the league he played in, I meant to say that there was a 4% difference between the leagues over the 2002-7 span and also the 2008-12 span. I apologize for my mischaracterization. Here are the actual breakdowns in the year 2007, the difference in ERA that year was only 1.8%:

 

[TABLE=class: tablehead]

[TR=class: colhead]

[TD=colspan: 2, align: left]LEAGUE AVERAGES[/TD]

GP

W

L

ERA

SV

CG

SHO

IP

QS

ER

R

BB

SO

BAA

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow]

[TD=colspan: 2]American League[/TD]

[TD=align: right]162[/TD]

[TD=align: right]82[/TD]

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.51[/TD]

[TD=align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1441[/TD]

[TD=align: right]78[/TD]

[TD=align: right]721[/TD]

[TD=align: right]781[/TD]

[TD=align: right]531[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1064[/TD]

[TD=align: right].269[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow]

[TD=colspan: 2]National League[/TD]

[TD=align: right]162[/TD]

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

[TD=align: right]82[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]40[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1453[/TD]

[TD=align: right]77[/TD]

[TD=align: right]714[/TD]

[TD=align: right]774[/TD]

[TD=align: right]540[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1081[/TD]

[TD=align: right].267[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

 

 

IMO, your original point was that Lohse is the same pitcher as he was when the Twins dumped him, if that was true, would the Cards trade him for Zach Ward's clone on June 7, 2012? I showed why that isn't categorically true, adjusting for league and park differences he has improved, incrementally to be sure. You also are stubborn in being unwilling to admit that Lohse was dumped at his absolute lowest value possible as a Twin, and that his numbers overwhelmingly suggest he would look pretty good on the Twins staff in 2012.

[CDog]

There is an apparent reading comprehension problem in understanding a fairly straightforward comment. I am coming to the conclusion that this isn't a comprehension problem, as you write quite well, the only conclusion I can come to is you are employed by the Twins or take your loyalty to new levels of extremes.

Neither of those conclusions is true, so you appear correct in your diagnosis of reading comprehension shortcomings.

[jokin]

It's called a smokescreen.

Facts aren't cigars and I don't smoke.

[CDog]

You also are stubborn in being unwilling to admit that Lohse was dumped at his absolute lowest value possible as a Twin, and that his numbers overwhelmingly suggest he would look pretty good on the Twins staff in 2012.

Do I also need to "admit" that the sky often appears blue? OK...I'll quit being stubborn. I'll admit something is true that I never ever ever ever suggested might not be true...the sky DOES often appear blue.

[jokin]

Do I also need to "admit" that the sky often appears blue? OK...I'll quit being stubborn. I'll admit something is true that I never ever ever ever suggested might not be true...the sky DOES often appear blue.

It's called acknowledging the facts on the table. The Twins and Lohse failed to reach his full potential during his time here, took a disastrous step backward at the end and got nothing in return for the time and money spent on his development. You say he is the same pitcher then as now, the Cardinals say he is worth $11.8 Million and stuck with him during his disastrous 2010 season, the Twins concluded he was worth nothing and got nothing in return.

[jwestbrock]

We'll stick with the 2002-2007 and 2008-2012 time frames because I see the idea of pre-Dave Duncan and post-Dave Duncan type argument. (Data from Fangraphs)

 

2002-2007 ERA- 105/FIP- 100/xFIP- 104

2008-2012 ERA- 106/FIP- 101/xFIP- 104

 

So basically the same slightly below average pitcher in both time frames adjusted for league and park.

 

This does not change the fact that he would be a welcome addition to the rotation, but that has more to do with the rotation than anything Lohse has done.

[twinsnorth49]

Facts aren't cigars and I don't smoke.

Are facts convenient bits of truth, cherry picked to support your theory and supported entirely by hindsight?

 

I wish they were beer, I could use one after reading this s**t.

[twinsnorth49]

And yes, in hindsight I would still like to have Lohse.

[Ultima Ratio]

This team is more than capable of playing .500 baseball the rest of the year. In fact, I think they'll do just that. The lineup should have been bright spot all along and has been adequate, the bullpen a surprising bright spot for sure, especially in comparison to yesteryear, but starting pitching will continue to be a roller coaster. Starting pitching is the most important thing is baseball. Period. Look at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Horrible offense, but they win many games 2-1 3-1.

[70charger]

I went out on a limb before the season and said that the Twins would surprise a lot of people. A ceiling of ~85 wins, but I predicted around 80 or so. I got a lot of laughs through April and much of May.

 

That said, I think the "real" Twins are only a piece or two away from respectability (to avoid a virtual shouting match with jokin, please note that all I said was "respectability"). They may yet get to 80 wins, but that would be a pretty impressive run. If the pitching call-ups keep producing, we'll be just fine. The bats have never been a problem - there's enough firepower throughout the lineup to keep opposing defenses honest through spotty injuries and the inevitable streaks. And the bullpen has been an incredible surprise to me. What seemed like a weak link before the season has been lights out. Show me a #1 starter, and I'll show you a team that can win.

 

One thing that I think we can all agree on is that last year's Twins were not the "real" Twins. Not when 7 of 9 positions were a patchwork of injury-replacements.

[Shane Wahl]

I am predicting that the Twins win 80 games this year. I hope I am under. I hope that in those 80 wins come some development of Dozier, Parmelee, and Hendriks. And I hope Pavano, Liriano, Capps, Casilla, and a few prospect throw-ins like Pugh, Robertson, Watts, and Achting, on one hand, and Morales, JD Williams, and Niko Goodrum, on the other usher in some more players, at least one who is a MLB-ready starting pitcher and at least one who is a A- or above prospect, with a few more lower level prospects in addition.

[Shane Wahl]

The "real Twins" are nowhere to be found. Same for last year. Perhaps this is what is most frustrating about the Twins in the past two years--there seems to be legitimate 90 win potential and yet 60 win potential truthfully arises. Last year, I blame injuries. This year, I blame the starting rotation, but this is being corrected. Revere and Diamond are more seasoned and can be regular contributors, and Dozier will be fine enough this year at SS. Morneau being healthy and productive while Mauer plays 130 games+ is huge.

[StormJH1]

The Twins are on pace for about 63 wins currently. Obviously, that would be a disaster, as it's pretty much exactly on par with last year. I think the fact that Morneau and Willingham are on this team, and that Morneau has shown flashes of his former self would put them at on course for about 70 wins or so. I feel like we have a lot of interleague matchups and games against the Central coming up, whereas our early schedule was pretty brutal.

 

I wanted to say that having Mauer catching (even a struggling Mauer) is also a clear upgrade over Butera, but for Mauer's "injury plauged" 82-game season last year, he actually did play from June 17th to September 14th (before the pneumonia thing). I just don't believe that Mauer has that much of an impact on this lineup. He'll probably always post an .800 OPS because of his ability to walk and get singles, but I refuse to believe that ability benefits a struggling lineup the way that Miguel Cabrera does hitting a garbage pitch over the CF wall.

[Shane Wahl]

Mauer is not Miguel Cabrera, but he is a great batter, batting third in the lineup. Pretty impactful.