Should Dozier stay up?

[Dilligaf69]

I don't think anyone thought much of Dozier, who was a 24 year old at Ft. Myers, before this year. The Twins were never waiting for him to be ready because no one expected him to make the majors. I'll take Casilla over Hudson thank you very much.

 

 

 

Me too...easily!

[CDog]

When UZR defensive stats came aboard a few yrs ago....I stopped using errors as the sole meter for defense.

Official scoring in MLB games is horrible & I cannot gauge a player on those anymore.

Dozier is 15th of 26 SSs (via Fangraphs) in defense (250INN....Brian's amt). There is nothing wrong with his play so far. He's missed some plays, he's made some plays.

Offensively, he's fine. .952OPS vs LHP so far .554 vs RHP. Needs to play everyday right now & see how he progresses.

You likely know this, but some may not...I think most would agree that errors alone is a bit of a broadsword tool when a scalpel is more appropriate, but I think most agree that the more advanced defensive stats are very volatile without quite large sample sizes (like full seasons or even more). Using them still might be better than errors, but one needs to be careful with quarter-season-sized data.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, since I said "not sure how that's done", I don't have a suggestion in June of what they should do at 2B next year just yet. And, I'd rather they get some pitching first, so who knows, maybe we get to watch Casilla again next year, and wonder just when the young guy will finally reach his prime....

[Montecore]

Bench him for a bit and play Carroll there. The errors and non-error errors are demoralizing to team morale.

[James]

When UZR defensive stats came aboard a few yrs ago....I stopped using errors as the sole meter for defense.

Official scoring in MLB games is horrible & I cannot gauge a player on those anymore.

Dozier is 15th of 26 SSs (via Fangraphs) in defense (250INN....Brian's amt). There is nothing wrong with his play so far. He's missed some plays, he's made some plays.

Offensively, he's fine. .952OPS vs LHP so far .554 vs RHP. Needs to play everyday right now & see how he progresses.

Agreed. I hate errors as a stat. UZR is much better. Dozier is doing fine. Keep him up.

 

My favorite comment about errors: You have to do something right before you get charged with an error.

[twinzgrl]

I went to Scheel's a few weeks ago and wanted to buy a Dozier T shirt. The manager told me that he wanted to be sure Dozier was going to stick before ordering a bunch of shirts with his name on them (he'd been stuck with a bunch of Hughes shirts). I like the guy, and THIS is the year to let him play and see what happens.

[70charger]

OK, with last night's performance, I'm starting to ask if it's time to make an adjustment and send Dozier back down for more seasoning. He started off hot, but both his bat and (especially) his fielding have tailed off the past couple of weeks. He's been up here for about a month now, and has 8 errors. He's made some spectacular plays, too, but that doesn't cover not making the ones that should be made.

 

I know there is an argument to be made that he should be given a chance to work this out up here in the bigs. Give him more time to adjust to major league pitching and learning how to field. Given we are not contenders this season, maybe that's OK; losing a few extra games won't hurt that much (although I love to win regardless). I also don't know what the corresponding move would be, who'd you would bring up. Carroll can go back over to short, but it's not as if we have a bunch of middle infielders knocking on the door at Rochester. But now that our starting pitching is starting to turn around a little bit, don't we owe it to them to give them the best defense possible?

 

Thoughts?

 

I see both sides of this, but I find the latter more convincing. He's a rookie; he's streaky. It happens. Besides, the Twins' second option at SS isn't as good on two fronts: 1) the guy who replaces him probably wouldn't have any better defense or offense, and that's a short-term (i.e. this-year-only) deal, and 2) the guy who will eventually replace him probably needs the minor league seasoning more than he.

 

I'm fine with this scenario: keep Dozier on the big club now, and let him work out his difficulties. If he turns into an everyday guy, we win. If we replace him with, say, a Florimon later on, and he moves into the everyday second-baseman role, we win. I just don't really see the upside of having him return to AAA.

 

That said, Casilla must be feeling some heat under his seat right about now, eh?

[Rosterman]

Right now, here is no one on the farm and all your candidates for any of the infield spots (Dozier, Casilla, Carroll, Plouffe, Burroughs, Valencia) all are taking lumps. It's who you want to put stock in. Can Valencia come back? Will Plouffe find a home at third? Carroll is Carroll and signed for another year and provides the vet leadership, although if he gets hot and someone wants him...go for it. Alexi is playing for a bigger contract. Twins will not feel he is worth it, but you can't trade nothing. oshi is still around collecting a paycheck in the minors...talk about the Bill Smith albatross! Dozier is either the real thing or a stop gap. Others would need to be added to the 40-man. I can wait to see what the Twins team looks like come August!

[StormJH1]

Casilla is fine defensively. But he is not going to be on the 2013 Twins.

Right on both counts. I like him as a utility player just fine. He hits well enough to perform THAT role. But it's clear the organization (okay, Gardy mostly) just doesn't like the guy. It's funny how that perception works. Because he's a Latin player, there seems to be this belief that he's either becoming a star, or he's worthless to us. But players like Tolbert, Punto, etc. are accepted for their shortcomings, and are celebrated as guys who battle their tail off to stay in the league. I can't think of a single instance of Casilla dogging it out there or showing like he doesn't care. This just is what he is.

 

On Dozier - We should definitely keep him up. I know he only got 28 games in at Triple-A, but this guy hit at an .800+ OPS all over the minors. He's 25 now, and his MLB hitting after 120 plate appearance hasn't been great, but let's play this out some more. Again, as we say for virtually EVERY position on the Twins, it's not like they Mike Trout or Bryce Harper ready to take his place.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'm having a hard time trying to understand what benefit would currently come from sending Dozier back to AAA.

 

Let the kid play.

 

Sort of off topic, sort of on, in response to posts above: IMO there is no way Alexi Casilla is an everyday major league SS. It's been tried before, as recently as last year.

[J-Dog Dungan]

With the hype being given to Bruno's ability to see problems in swings, it wouldn't hurt to send him down to get a little more seasoning, after all, his success at the plate is only recently developed.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I'm having a hard time trying to understand what benefit would currently come from sending Dozier back to AAA.

 

Let the kid play.

 

 

The benefit would be that perhaps he was promoted too quickly. I was listening to an interview on 1500am the other day with Roy Smalley, and he likes the idea of letting players move up 1 level at a time. Prove to yourself (and everyone else) that you belong in high-A, then in AA, then in AAA. Then, when you're cruising in AAA, there should be no doubts to anyone (including yourself) that you belong in the show. I thought that idea had merit; hence my musings. I don't think that needs to always be adhered to rigorously; there will always be exceptions that demand to be made. That said, though, Dozier spent very little time in AAA, and his numbers (both batting and fielding) were OK but not great; perhaps he was promoted too quickly, because of lack of depth in the MLB roster.

 

That said, now that he's here, I'm leaning to keeping him up myself, for the reasons many here have mentioned. I just thought it was a legitimate question for discussion.

[James Richter]

Possible benefits to sending Dozier down: stepping off the train for a few weeks could give him a chance to catch up mentally, which might help him at the plate and in the field; might ensure that he's not a Super-2 after 2014. To replace him, they could put Florimon on the bench and have Casilla play every day for a few weeks, or they could give Burroughs another shot starting only against RHPs (.881 OPS at AAA). Plouffe has pretty extreme platoon splits right now - I'd love to see him even it out, but it looks more likely that he needs to be a guy who only starts vs. LHPs. If splitting time with Burroughs works, I'm not worried about 3B for the next couple years. Having said that, I don't think there's any urgency to make a move with the IF for the next little while.

 

By the way, in fairness to Nishioka, check out his monthly splits. Nothing wonderful yet (and small sample sizes all), but they're definitely trending in the right direction, as though he might be acclimating to the level. He's going to get paid $3M next season no matter where he plays, so it'd be nice for him to get to the point where the Twins could make him the bench MI and spot him in the #9 hole once or twice a week.

[twinstalker]

I think Dozier has done a pretty good job of not being overwhelmed at the plate. He should be overwhelmed. He's shot through the system and basically skipped AAA. Parmelee needed to go back. Dozier's here to stay, and I'll wager confidently that his stats improve this year.