Schafer!

[Mike Sixel]

No, they traded Revere for nothing, apparently

[drjim]

May will end up as a decent reliever, but you certainly want more than that.

 

Revere still isn't that much of a loss.

[biggentleben]

If Schafer can improve his bunting as a Twin he could be quite valuable in certain situations. I haven't really seen anyone improve their bunting as a Twin though.

 

He's been drilled on this for years, even by Glenn Hubbard, who Greg Maddux once credited with making him into a skilled bunter.  Jordan has a lot of very positive skills, but his head has always been what got in his way.  Perhaps his original organization finally getting tired of his lack of effort and poor clubhouse attitude drove him to put forth the effort and hard work that got Chipper Jones' attention before his MLB debut.  He was compared very favorably to top-end Carl Crawford as he was coming up, with all the positives and negatives that entails - too many strikeouts for a speed guy, though he will take a walk, gets seemingly power-hungry at times and changes his swing which can lead to some long slumps, and lives on his speed on defense without really having great instincts - all the positives and negatives that Crawford in Tampa Bay possessed.  If he can be 1/4 of what Crawford was for a 3-5 year run, the Twins have nailed this pick up.  I am glad to see him finally playing like the guy who he showed he could be before his wrist injury in 2009.

[kab21]

I remember thinking when the Twins were good that they should work and alter the back end of the 40-man roster. They've done a nice job of that this year, trading out the likes of Alex Pressly and Darin Mastroiani for Jordan Schafer and Sam Fuld. 

 

He's arb eligible, but he wouldn't make more than about $1 million. Enough potential yet, and worst case, a solid fourth outfielder.

 

The problem is that Mastro and Pressley had nice short stints that they looked like good 4th OF'ers or spot starters but then they reverted back to what they were.  It's quite likely that we will be able to lump Schafer into the Mastro/Pressley category next year. 

[stringer bell]

I've been interested to see what you might have to say, Ben.  It is still a ridiculously small sample size, but Schafer has demonstrated undeniable tools that the Twins are missing.  Not only is he fast, he is aggressive in stealing bases.  I can see that his routes to balls in the outfield haven't always been picture-perfect, but his speed covers the deficit nicely.  So far, he seems to have a very good approach at the plate, he 'll go the other way, take a walk, but he has hit some mistake pitches hard. 

[kab21]

He does add a nice bench weapon that your typical utility IF'er or OF'er doesn't have.  I usually complain about the lack of a good bench hitter but Schafer is a nearly elite pinch runner and can be used as a pretty good defensive replacement.

[jokin]

He does add a nice bench weapon that your typical utility IF'er or OF'er doesn't have.  I usually complain about the lack of a good bench hitter but Schafer is a nearly elite pinch runner and can be used as a pretty good defensive replacement.

 

 

To the arb experts out there.... I'm wondering what this current run of games started and possibly maintaining his current OPS+ of 136 will do to his potential arbitration value come off-season.  They refused to put a claim in on Bonifacio, who was and is a nice bench weapon, as he could play both the Inf and the OF and had blazing speed, with the possibility of only being on the hook for $1.925M (KC had to pay an additional $575,000).  Shafer makes $1.09M this year..... around what potential dollar amount would the Twins completely walk away from Shafer for 2015?

[biggentleben]

To the arb experts out there.... I'm wondering what this current run of games started and possibly maintaining his current OPS+ of 136 will do to his potential arbitration value come off-season.  They refused to put a claim in on Bonifacio, who was and is a nice bench weapon, as he could play both the Inf and the OF and had blazing speed, with the possibility of only being on the hook for $1.925M (KC had to pay an additional $575,000).  Shafer makes $1.09M this year..... around what potential dollar amount would the Twins completely walk away from Shafer for 2015?

 

The least he could make in arbitration is roughly $875K.  I would wager on him making in the $1.5-2M range, and that's not out of this world for a 4th outfielder.  Anything over $2M would be very questionable to me.

[stringer bell]

I wonder if they DFA him and immediately sign him to a two-way contract, knowing that he would make more in arbitration than he would on the open market.  $2M is not too much if he plays anything like he has so far.  It is too much if he doesn't make the team (and ties up a 40-man spot).

[jokin]

The least he could make in arbitration is roughly $875K.  I would wager on him making in the $1.5-2M range, and that's not out of this world for a 4th outfielder.  Anything over $2M would be very questionable to me.

 

 

Thanks, Ben.  Now the question is, would the Twins offer close to that amount, risk going to arbitration, or non-tender?.... knowing they didn't claim Bonifacio for less than a $2M commitment in 2014.  And more importantly, knowing anything about Shafer, what might be his own preferences?  If he's looking for a shot at playing every day, it seems the Twins have a spot available to prove he's an everyday player until Buxton arrives.

[jokin]

I wonder if they DFA him and immediately sign him to a two-way contract, knowing that he would make more in arbitration than he would on the open market.  $2M is not too much if he plays anything like he has so far.  It is too much if he doesn't make the team (and ties up a 40-man spot).

 

This makes sense, as the Twins have the upper hand at this point.  Have the Twins done anything this anticipatorily clever in the recent past?

[biggentleben]

Thanks, Ben.  Now the question is, would the Twins offer close to that amount, risk going to arbitration, or non-tender?.... knowing they didn't claim Bonifacio for less than a $2M commitment in 2014.  And more importantly, knowing anything about Shafer, what might be his own preferences?  If he's looking for a shot at playing every day, it seems the Twins have a spot available to prove he's an everyday player until Buxton arrives.

 

I really think there's a $500K-$1M range above that $2M where I wouldn't blame a team if they really like the guy.  I can't imagine Schafer would think he could get $3M and request that high, but he's very self-confident, so that's always a possibility.  I didn't answer where the Twins should walk away, just where I would personally, but I'm in the same boat as the Braves were with way too much history of the guy influencing my decision, and I'll openly admit that.  There's no reason a team like the Twins who have been impressed with what he showed in their uniform couldn't go to $3M, but I'd be questionable about getting any value at that pay scale.  It's akin to paying a superstar $30M.  That may be their value, but any dip in performance would immediately make that look like a bad contract.  Schafer returning to his 2nd half 2013 through his release from the Braves in 2014 performance would never be worth $3M, so there's that risk.  $2M leaves some room for him to play above that level.  Yes, it's only $1M on a payroll of $100M (roughly, not starting any payroll arguments here!), but that's $1M not utilized elsewhere that it could be available.

[ScrapTheNickname]

We have seen that Schafer is a bad bunter, and when you see his bunts compared to Santana's bunts it is striking how terrible he is.  Yet, he said in an interview, that he considered himself a good bunter.  Can the Twins teach him how to bunt correctly ?  Is he willing to learn ? 

I wonder: is there a statistical method that is used to measure bunting prowess, or lack thereof?

 

I agree, based on what we've seen as a Twin, he sucks as a bunter.

[biggentleben]

I wonder: is there a statistical method that is used to measure bunting prowess, or lack thereof?

 

I agree, based on what we've seen as a Twin, he sucks as a bunter.

 

He always has been a very poor bunter.  Akin to the receiver in football who is looking where to run before catching the ball, Schafer is notably moving toward first before securing the contact in a bunt.

[jokin]

I really think there's a $500K-$1M range above that $2M where I wouldn't blame a team if they really like the guy.  I can't imagine Schafer would think he could get $3M and request that high, but he's very self-confident, so that's always a possibility.  I didn't answer where the Twins should walk away, just where I would personally, but I'm in the same boat as the Braves were with way too much history of the guy influencing my decision, and I'll openly admit that.  There's no reason a team like the Twins who have been impressed with what he showed in their uniform couldn't go to $3M, but I'd be questionable about getting any value at that pay scale.  It's akin to paying a superstar $30M.  That may be their value, but any dip in performance would immediately make that look like a bad contract.  Schafer returning to his 2nd half 2013 through his release from the Braves in 2014 performance would never be worth $3M, so there's that risk.  $2M leaves some room for him to play above that level.  Yes, it's only $1M on a payroll of $100M (roughly, not starting any payroll arguments here!), but that's $1M not utilized elsewhere that it could be available.

 

 

Thanks, Ben.  This information is extremely helpful, and that's about where I figured to be at at this point on this situation, especially with your ongoing hints about issues.  Sometimes a change of scenery is best for all parties.   But it seems extremely presumptuous to extrapolate his line thus far with the Twins to a $2M or $3M reward for 2015, no matter the need in the OF.

[jokin]

He always has been a very poor bunter.  Akin to the receiver in football who is looking where to run before catching the ball, Schafer is notably moving toward first before securing the contact in a bunt.

Yep, and if he hasn't learned proper technique to this point, there's really nothing that Rod Carew has to work with.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins will have a bench of 3 players at some times next year when they go to 13 pitchers. It will be a catcher, a middle infielder and a 4th OF. The fourth OF spot might be the best hope for a pinch hitter. If Schafer is on the roster, he can't be optioned. That really reduces the flexibility. He would need to be a very good 4th OF to be worth a roster spot and give up the flexibility.

[kab21]

The easier plan would be to not use 13 pitchers.  If they do then it will be a short term thing.  I'm not the biggest fan of Schafer but the 4th OF'er spot needs to be a capable defender unless the Twins have a CF'er starting in LF which is unlikely.

[ashbury]

The easier plan would be to not use 13 pitchers.

You gotta have a place to put all the starting pitchers for whom the answer is "we'll just use him in long relief."

[Mike Sixel]

The easier plan would be to not use 13 pitchers.  If they do then it will be a short term thing.  I'm not the biggest fan of Schafer but the 4th OF'er spot needs to be a capable defender unless the Twins have a CF'er starting in LF which is unlikely.

 

How many years in a row have they gone to 13 pitchers? I'd suggest you should probably assume they'll do that again next year.

[stringer bell]

13 pitchers was a function of lack of flexibility.  Rather than have Tonkin and somebody shuttle back and forth as the 12th guy, the Twins had guys without options fill long and middle relief (Deduno and Swarzak) who couldn't be sent down without being lost.  Also, for the last month or so (since Mauer's return), there really hasn't been a crying need for more position players, except perhaps to pinch run or once in a while pinch hit. 

 

Combine that with the general ineffectiveness of the starting rotation and it really made sense to go with 13 pitchers, as much as I hate to say it. 

 

The best way to avoid having a staff with 13 pitchers is to have an effective starting rotation. 

[Mike Sixel]

I agree that using old guys without options had been a problem here for several years now. Why do we think that will change? We have all seen it as part of the problem, but nothing has changed.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Well, I think the Twins used Pino's option very efficiently this season - maybe they learned the value of having a couple guys like that on the pitching staff that can shuttle back and forth as needed...

[alskntwnsfn]

Little late to the thread but loved the article. If Schafer keeps this up, he's got to be next year's LF. End of story. Yes, he has a terrible track record, but I think there is reason for hope. 

 

As Parker stated, he's getting regular ABs (probably for the last time unless he produces). The impact of getting regular playing time is hard to overstate. Guys who sit on the bench for weeks or who are trying to "break" into a lineup often have a different approach than a regular starter. You don't walk your way into a lineup, outside of maybe Oakland. You hit your way on. Couple that with being rusty and over anxious, and you end up rolling over a lot of pitches, hitting pitcher's pitches, and failing to square them up.

 

So his BABIP is .380. Maybe it will regress a bit, but we're talking about one of the fastest players in the league who hits left-handed and is going to the opposite field more. In Ichiro's 27-35 year old seasons he had a .357 BABIP. So maybe it doesn't have to regress so much?  

[biggentleben]

Little late to the thread but loved the article. If Schafer keeps this up, he's got to be next year's LF. End of story. Yes, he has a terrible track record, but I think there is reason for hope. 

 

As Parker stated, he's getting regular ABs (probably for the last time unless he produces). The impact of getting regular playing time is hard to overstate. Guys who sit on the bench for weeks or who are trying to "break" into a lineup often have a different approach than a regular starter. You don't walk your way into a lineup, outside of maybe Oakland. You hit your way on. Couple that with being rusty and over anxious, and you end up rolling over a lot of pitches, hitting pitcher's pitches, and failing to square them up.

 

So his BABIP is .380. Maybe it will regress a bit, but we're talking about one of the fastest players in the league who hits left-handed and is going to the opposite field more. In Ichiro's 27-35 year old seasons he had a .357 BABIP. So maybe it doesn't have to regress so much?  

 

He's had multiple seasons where he was given full-time run before, though, and he failed in Atlanta, in Houston, and again in Atlanta with full-time playing time.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He made some baserunning blunders last night but after the game knew his mistakes and said all the right things.

[USAFChief]

I would say Shafer is a 'canary in a mine' we can use as an early test of how serious the Twins are about 2015.

 

If they close one eye, squint real hard with the other, and convince themselves he's an acceptable answer in LF to start next year...we have our answer.

[big dog]

He made some baserunning blunders last night but after the game knew his mistakes and said all the right things.

 

Yeah, and the second time was really more bad luck than a terrible idea.  The overthrow hit something and bounced straight back to Konerko, hard.  Dozier's made some decisions this year that were a lot worse than that one (and I'm a huge Dozier fan). 

 

He's definitely got rough edges, but he reminds me of the Twins' version of Carlos Gomez- if he can just learn to control the physical tools, he might really turn into something.

[stringer bell]

He'll be 28 this month, so this is probably the best he will be. He has had health, attitude and productivity issues, but what we've seen so far is pretty good, even with yesterday's baserunning issues. I still advocate a minor league contract with a decent salary if he makes the club.

[biggentleben]

August - .333/.405/.427, .391 BABIP, 11 SB, 9/11 BB/K

September - .190/.261/.190, .267 BABIP, 1 SB, 2/6 BB/K