How Overpaid is Joe Mauer?

[jokin]

OK, I'm officially not going to respond to your post...oops...I guess I am...I just want to respond that it's not hating Joe Mauer...it's the contract.

 

Exactly right! You nailed the crux of the matter with a brevity for which I am admittedly lacking. I also don't hate Joe Mauer, I honestly don't understand people who can ever generate enough feelings about a game that elevate one's emotional response to the level of "hate". Conversely, it is lazy analysis to suggest it is "hate speech" when someone points out when performance paramaters change in a statistically significant way. I engaged the debate in this thread to flesh out and question what things a mid-market team: 1)could have done differently leading up to the contract and, 2) should do now with the contract and player being what they are.

 

 

Upon further reflection, perhaps "paralyzed" came off as too strong a characterization of Twins management until 2018, but if any criticism ("hate") was being proffered, that was the direction I was headed, perhaps "handcuffed" would have hit the right note, had I given it more thought. But the fact remains, Mauer is locked in as the 3rd highest player in baseball (http://baseballplayersalaries.com/salaries?season=2012) with his production and health in evident (at least in the short-term) decline, about to enter his 30s, all while retaining the right to call all the shots regarding his continued tenure as a Twin- thus far, the Twins seem to have a paralysis of thought in how they move forward with the apparent new reality.

[Guest USAFChief]

As long as it gets brought up endlessly, I guess I'll endlessly keep mentioning that he gets first pitch strikes less than the overall average. Then, of course, there's the possibility that he doesn't feel as stressed out over having a strike or even two against him that many observers apparently do. And as long as we're heaven forbidding...heaven forbid that he ask for some information, likely to use that information to make himself a better hitter. Yes, everyone can always improve all the time, especially in this game, but the overwhelming thoughts from the peanut gallery that think their approach is so much better than someone who has used their own to put up the first half pace of a hall of fame career just seems so out of place that I'm just amazed by it over and over again.

 

How do you get the rant font turned off here?

1. Do you have some proof that Mauer's first pitch strike percentage is below average? I admit I don't know, but I'd like to see some proof before accepting that claim. I also think a more relevant comparison would be 1st strike percentage of #3 hitters, or 3, 4, and 5 hitters, rather than first strike percentage of everyone.

 

2. Whether or not he feels "stressed" at being behind in the count is pretty irrelevant. What's relevant is if hitting behind in the count makes him a worse hitter. A quick check of BBRef shows that for his career, when behind in the count, Mauer ends up OPSing .623. After 0-1 counts, he's at .731. After 1-2 counts, .599. So maybe Mauer should be a little more stressed about hitting behind in the count.

 

3. Yeah, I don't give a rat's arse either if he always brushes the box with his feet and asks the umpire if it was a strike after most foul balls.

 

4. Even if we grant you Mauer has put up a "first half pace of a HOF career," he ain't maintaining that pace. After the 1.000+ OPS of 2009, he's gone .871 and .729 in the two years since. Dropping .150 points per year. And he's sub .800 again this year, although I certainly agree it's early to judge 2012. So maybe he should be a little more open to "making adjustments" as we hear over and over again is required at "the major league level." What Mauer did in 2009 was great, but it's no longer relevant. We're talking about what he's going to do over the next 6+ years that matters now. And so far, he ain't doing a whole lot. Certainly not $23M worth.

 

Get him out from behind the plate, permanently, so he has the best chance of staying healthy and playing 160-ish games per year. Get him to accept some sort of leadership role. That's part of what he's being paid for. And for Pete's sake, ahe could at least try to learn to look for spots to turn on the ball sometimes. That's part of being a $23M player too.

[Alex]

I'm pretty much done with this thread, but, people, stats are so easy to look up. Good find on the counts. I actually had the impression that Mauer was just as good a hitter behind in the count. Never had a reason to look that one up though, so hadn't bothered. He's definitely not good down in counts as I expected. As far as first pitch strikes:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C#platediscipline

 

This season Joe Mauer's first pitch strike % is 54.5% (not unusual for him). Josh Willingham's 1st pitch strike % is 56%, and that's low for him. MVP Ryan Braun is 58.6% this year and 59% last year. Josh Hamilton is 63.2%. Cabrera is 60%. Need I go on? There are hitters that are lower, but does anyone really think that pitchers would want to get behind these guys?

 

League Average since 2002 has been between 58.3 and 59.4, so it's safe to say that Mauer sees fewer first pitch strikes than most hitters. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2011&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&players=0

 

So, pretty much well below average. Another interesting stat is that he is a .967 OPS hitter on first pitch swings. It's really his second best count after 3-1 (he's even better at 3-0, but he's put 4 pitches in play his ENTIRE career in this count, so I'm going to set that aside.). This means he's pretty selective, so imo....

 

No matter what people say about Joe's leadership, the possibility of his decline, lack of power, etc...etc...the guy is a professional hitter and knows that aspect of the game better than most other ballplayers, and certainly, better than those of us here.

[Guest USAFChief]

. As far as first pitch strikes:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C#platediscipline

 

This season Joe Mauer's first pitch strike % is 54.5% (not unusual for him). Josh Willingham's 1st pitch strike % is 56%, and that's low for him. MVP Ryan Braun is 58.6% this year and 59% last year. Josh Hamilton is 63.2%. Cabrera is 60%. Need I go on? There are hitters that are lower, but does anyone really think that pitchers would want to get behind these guys?

 

League Average since 2002 has been between 58.3 and 59.4, so it's safe to say that Mauer sees fewer first pitch strikes than most hitters. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2011&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&players=0

 

.

Interesting, but deceptive. Fangraphs' data for that stat (F%) includes swinging strikes on the first pitch, fair and foul balls on the first pitch, as well as called strikes on the first pitch. So naturally, a hitter who seldom swings at the first pitch is pretty much guaranteed to end up with a lower "first pitch strike" percentage than a hitter more inclined to swing at the first pitch.

 

So without further analysis, I don't think you can draw firm conclusions that Mauer is getting fed fewer first pitch strikes than other hitters. And I don't think it serves as very good evidence that Mauer wouldn't benefit from aggressively swinging at a higher percentage of first pitches.

[striker_86]

Im sure many of you have checked out Fangraphs.com. This site is awesome, breaks down everything you need to know.

 

I know people are begging for Mauer to swing at the first pitch and stop grounding into double plays. Is it possible, that he is in such a slump, that he thinks a walk is the best he can do? He knows that he is having trouble hitting and is trying to use walks to help the team out. Don't get me wrong, Im not making excuses for the guy, just curious what you guys think.

 

His OBP is .391 (20th in the league). Willingham's is .410

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=14,d

 

Interesting...

[Alex]

Interesting, but deceptive. Fangraphs' data for that stat (F%) includes swinging strikes on the first pitch, fair and foul balls on the first pitch, as well as called strikes on the first pitch. So naturally, a hitter who seldom swings at the first pitch is pretty much guaranteed to end up with a lower "first pitch strike" percentage than a hitter more inclined to swing at the first pitch.

 

So without further analysis, I don't think you can draw firm conclusions that Mauer is getting fed fewer first pitch strikes than other hitters. And I don't think it serves as very good evidence that Mauer wouldn't benefit from aggressively swinging at a higher percentage of first pitches.

Deceptive? How odd. Regardless, his approach leads to fewer first strikes than the average hitter by a considerable margin. This should lead to favorable counts in which most hitters have a better chance of reaching base.

 

If you believe the stats are deceptive, you're then assuming that these average hitters are swinging at balls, thus artificially inflating their strike counts. In truth, I'm sure they are to a small extent, but then, shouldn't they be taking those pitches? Even accounting for that notion, is that entire difference (~5%) that these hitters are swinging at bad pitches? Think of how that frames your point: The average hitter ends up with more first strikes because he swings at balls outside of the strike zone. By that logic, disciplined hitters should swing at more balls, so that pitchers throw them fewer strikes on the first pitch? My head is about to explode here.

 

There is game theory involved in first pitch strikes (see my recommendation below) and an equilibrium involved, but I don't think Mauer's anywhere near it. (He should be getting 60% or higher before he starts swinging more).

 

 

Even if, for some reason, you still don't buy into it, I think it quite resoundingly refutes the idea that Mauer is getting fed MORE first pitch strikes than most hitters, which is the perception and frequent argument. If you still don't buy that, I'd highly suggest p.358-361 of The Book by Tom Tango (paying special attention to 361, the discussion of Boggs and Youkilis, hitters with similar approaches to Mauer.)

[Ultima Ratio]

At the end of April I said that Mauer was overpaid by 8 million/year. Now it's at least 10/year. It looks to me like he's not using his lower body at all some for some swings, like a Span swing. He's also not good against junk, but more of a FB hitter and pitchers know this. Get the fastball in for strike one, then breaking balls down over and over again.

[one_eyed_jack]

Apologies to jokin and others for going overboard with the snark in this thread. It was unnecessary and uncalled for.

[CDog]

1. Do you have some proof that Mauer's first pitch strike percentage is below average? I admit I don't know, but I'd like to see some proof before accepting that claim. I also think a more relevant comparison would be 1st strike percentage of #3 hitters, or 3, 4, and 5 hitters, rather than first strike percentage of everyone.

 

2. Whether or not he feels "stressed" at being behind in the count is pretty irrelevant. What's relevant is if hitting behind in the count makes him a worse hitter. A quick check of BBRef shows that for his career, when behind in the count, Mauer ends up OPSing .623. After 0-1 counts, he's at .731. After 1-2 counts, .599. So maybe Mauer should be a little more stressed about hitting behind in the count.

 

4. Even if we grant you Mauer has put up a "first half pace of a HOF career," he ain't maintaining that pace. After the 1.000+ OPS of 2009, he's gone .871 and .729 in the two years since. Dropping .150 points per year. And he's sub .800 again this year, although I certainly agree it's early to judge 2012. So maybe he should be a little more open to "making adjustments" as we hear over and over again is required at "the major league level." What Mauer did in 2009 was great, but it's no longer relevant. We're talking about what he's going to do over the next 6+ years that matters now. And so far, he ain't doing a whole lot. Certainly not $23M worth.

1. What other people said.

 

2. Well no kidding he hits worse behind in the count. So does another really good player named Everybody. He does NOT, however, hit as poorly compared to ahead in the count as many or most. For instance, a player he hits better than when behind in the count...Miguel Cabrera. And as another point, even when he does fall behind 0-1, there are lots o' times he ends up in hitter's counts later on.

 

4. It's not a pace he needs to "maintain" in the same sense as a race. Looking at his top ten comparables at his age, five are in the hall, one is guaranteed to go, and three others "could." All of those guys slowed down their accumulation with age, too.

[Guest USAFChief]

1. What other people said.

 

2. Well no kidding he hits worse behind in the count. So does another really good player named Everybody. He does NOT, however, hit as poorly compared to ahead in the count as many or most. For instance, a player he hits better than when behind in the count...Miguel Cabrera. And as another point, even when he does fall behind 0-1, there are lots o' times he ends up in hitter's counts later on.

 

4. It's not a pace he needs to "maintain" in the same sense as a race. Looking at his top ten comparables at his age, five are in the hall, one is guaranteed to go, and three others "could." All of those guys slowed down their accumulation with age, too.

1. As noted above, the first pitch strike percentage includes pitches swung at, and pitches put into play, so it doesn't really tell us if Mauer gets fewer, or more, first pitch called strikes. If Josh Hamilton swings at the first pitch, it counts as a first pitch strike and we don't know if the umpire would have called it a strike or not. Since Mauer swings at few first pitches, it's not an exact comparison.

 

2. a) So wouldn't the idea be then to not get behind in the count? Sometimes guessing on a first pitch and taking a rip is one way to avoid falling behind in the count, and one way many hitters hit for power. As noted above, Mauer is pretty successful when he puts the first pitch of an AB in play. I think the team would benefit if he'd do it more often. Too often, IMO, he ends up putting a pitcher's pitch in play with 2 strikes on him, with a defensive swing. As for Cabrera, he must then be a much better hitter than Mauer when he's even and/or ahead in the count...lifetime he's been .078 OPS pts better than Mauer overall. c) And ending up in a hitter's count after falling behind 0-1 was included in the stat cited above..."after 0-1 count."

 

4. There actually is a pace he needs to maintain, and putting up a string of .700-something OPS years from here on out will not maintain that pace. If he does that, those age 28 comparables are meaningless, as his age 35 comparables will be quite a different list. They don't put you in the HOF based on what you looked like you might be.

[twinswon1991]

It speaks to how overpaid Mauer is when there is no team in baseball that would take his contract for FREE.

 

6 more years at 23 mil for a DH/1B that posseses Punto-esque power will paralyze any franchise.

[StormJH1]

I was thinking exactly the same thing when I heard Barreiro yesterday, that maybe Mauer is trying to judge the strike zone and gather information rather than the fact that he just didn't want to swing at a ball.

 

I've also never like Barreiro's take on Mauer. I think he has things, and responsibility reversed. I don't think it's really Mauer's job to change his personality and leadership because of his contract. It's up to the Twins to recognize what they have and pay what they think it's worth.

Okay, so it's kind of like the "dating somebody hoping they will change argument". I get it, it's unrealistic.

 

But you're talking about his personality. My counter to that is that Mauer DID change after he got the contract. The Twins (and their fans) saw an evolved Mauer in 2009, at an age (26) where it was still realistic to expect that evolution to take place. You don't "accidentally" hit 28 balls over the outfield fence...Mauer was driving the ball, and that was a new development. He's had double digit home runs only one other time in his career. Oh, and by the way, it's not like he was doing cartwheels to lead the team onto the field or breaking bats over his knee that year either. He was his same boring self, and nobody cared because we had a damn good baseball player.

 

His swing now has more in common with Ichiro's than it does with Morneau's or Willingham's. Perhaps he's scared of failure. Maybe he thinks he really is more valuable to the team keeping his OBP as high as possible (though it was never higher than it was in '09). Maybe it's chronic nagging injuries. Maybe he has something even more insidious, like a blood disorder or chronic fatigue. These are all darts thrown at the wall, but at least the people trying to find an explanation are also the ones holding onto the hope that it can be fixed. But if it's a straight question of expected value versus actual value, the reason really doesn't matter.

[BeefMaster]

His swing now has more in common with Ichiro's than it does with Morneau's or Willingham's. Perhaps he's scared of failure. Maybe he thinks he really is more valuable to the team keeping his OBP as high as possible (though it was never higher than it was in '09). Maybe it's chronic nagging injuries. Maybe he has something even more insidious, like a blood disorder or chronic fatigue. These are all darts thrown at the wall, but at least the people trying to find an explanation are also the ones holding onto the hope that it can be fixed. But if it's a straight question of expected value versus actual value, the reason really doesn't matter.

Mauer NEVER had a swing like Morneau's or Willingham's, even in 2009 - almost all his homers that year were line shots to the opposite field, most of which barely cleared the wall. He probably would've lost a bunch of homers if the Twins had left up the plexiglass in the Dome. He's never been a pull-for-power guy, and if the Twins thought that he would become that based on 2009, that was a colossal failure in scouting.

 

Look at his numbers from 2009 to 2010, when he moved to a home park with deeper fences: In 2010, he hit 19 fewer homers but had 13 more doubles than in 2009. He was still driving the ball basically the same as before, but they weren't making it over fences as often. Between those two years, he lost 30 points of OPS on the road and 300 points of OPS at home.

[Alex]

Gleeman breaks down a lot of Mauer stats. As he says, they're more bad than good overall, but does share some interesting ones about the main complaints (RBI %, WAR, value of AVG vs. OBP, contract space).

 

http://www.kfan.com/player/?station=KFXN-FM&program_name=podcast&program_id=KFAN_PADubay.xml&mid=22098817

[glunn]

It speaks to how overpaid Mauer is when there is no team in baseball that would take his contract for FREE.

 

How do you know that? I would bet that there is at least one or two large market teams that would gladly take him. It also seems possible that he will return to 90% or more of his prior excellence.

[EephusKnuckler]

I'm not too familiar with contract stuff in MLB, but I wonder if there's ever a chance that Mauer's contract can be reworked. The "hometown kid" thing works both ways. The organization takes care of him, and he does what he can to help the team win. If that means reworking a deal and taking a paycut so the team around him can improve, then that needs to be done.

[jokin]

Jim Souhan has come up with the latest adjective describing Mauer's upcoming 6-year relationship with the Twins:"Suffocating"...

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/155550255.html

 

I don't often agree with Souhan, but he does bring up some valid points in his article. In his Mauer-attribute-summation paragraph there are areas to agree and disagree over:

 

 

 

"Mauer circa 2012 is a quality hitter. (partially agree, hasn't exactly acquitted himself the last two days, who didn't think a GIDP was coming during tonight's 9th inning rally??? GB/FB% at career worst). He's elite when it comes to getting on base. (Agree) He's a pretty good defensive catcher with an excellent arm . (Most observers would say he has slipped to just-above average defensively and his arm isn't what it once was: ZR at career low, CS% career low and at 1/2 of career average, CERA career worst, etc.) He's a fine baserunner and a smart player. (I think Souhan must have taken Memorial Day off, Joe didn't exactly distinguish himself on the bases yesterday).

He's the last guy who's going to embarrass himself or his franchise with a DUI or a ridiculous quote. (Agree about his good citizen status but he filled up a dozen notebooks with ridiculous quotes last year). He's just not worth anything close to $23 million a year..." (Is there one person in TwinsLand that doesn't agee with this quote?)

[CDog]

"Mauer circa 2012 is a quality hitter. (partially agree, hasn't exactly acquitted himself the last two days, who didn't think a GIDP was coming during tonight's 9th inning rally??? GB/FB% at career worst). He's elite when it comes to getting on base. (Agree) He's a pretty good defensive catcher with an excellent arm . (Most observers would say he has slipped to just-above average defensively and his arm isn't what it once was: ZR at career low, CS% career low and at 1/2 of career average, CERA career worst, etc.) He's a fine baserunner and a smart player. (I think Souhan must have taken Memorial Day off, Joe didn't exactly distinguish himself on the bases yesterday).

He's the last guy who's going to embarrass himself or his franchise with a DUI or a ridiculous quote. (Agree about his good citizen status but he filled up a dozen notebooks with ridiculous quotes last year). He's just not worth anything close to $23 million a year..." (Is there one person in TwinsLand that doesn't agee with this quote?)

A two-day sample? Twice?..............I didn't read a single quote that was ridiculous when not taken out of context or twisted by a reader/listener...............Probably not one, but almost certainly many.

[jokin]

A two-day sample? Twice?..............I didn't read a single quote that was ridiculous when not taken out of context or twisted by a reader/listener...............Probably not one, but almost certainly many.

Your Selective Reader Bias is showing, badly, the "two-day samples" were illustrations, not proofs, the proofs are included. Mauer is definitely a "quality" hitter, but nothing like before (Ben Revere, of all people, has a higher SLG%!// Mauer is on a current pace to break the all-time single-season GIDP record); regarding his baserunning, it's fair to say he's a "good" baserunner, probably a grade below "a fine baserunner". Re Mauer's quotes, the organization itself has acknowledged the PR disaster in Mauer's quotes last year, his two-month Florida "vacation" and his apparent unwillingness to play unless he was "feeling 100%". The proof there is the Twins and Mauer have obviously come to some agreement, this season, to keep Joe "on message" to the media and a mutual commitment to keep him on the field as much as possible.

[Bark's Lounge]

Your Selective Reader Bias is showing, badly, the "two-day samples" were illustrations, not proofs, the proofs are included. Mauer is definitely a "quality" hitter, but nothing like before (Ben Revere, of all people, has a higher SLG%!); regarding his baserunning, it's fair to say he's a "good" baserunner, probably a grade below "a fine baserunner". Re Mauer's quotes, the organization itself has acknowledged the PR disaster in Mauer's quotes last year, his two-month Florida "vacation" and his apparent unwillingness to play unless he was "feeling 100%". The proof there is the Twins and Mauer have obviously come to some agreement, this season, to keep Joe "on message" to the media and a mutual commitment to keep him on the field as much as possible.

Dear Mr. Jokin. Are you a high profile defense attorney? If not, you should give your career choice a second thought. You would make Johnny Cochrane proud... although a few "If the glove doesn't fit, you must acquit" kind of lines would help your standing and profile. Within this thread you probably have a books worth of written material. You seem really intent on proving your critics wrong and at no cost. I am not sure whether to equate that to you having an inflated ego or that you are uber passionate about Mauer's contract - it comes off as angry and out of control. This is coming from a Twins Daily Participant who has pissed on an electric fence or 2 on this site and is regretful of past posts, etc... I might actually regret this one. Mr. Jokin, please channel your inner Johnny Cochrane and repeat these words: "Joe Mauer's Contract is behind us, about the contract don't remind us."

[Riverbrian]

There are ten players making 20 million or higher in 2011. In comparison to the production of some players who make a mere ten million a year or the league minimum... I contend that nobody is worth that amount of cash!

 

The market is what the market is and the market was what the market was and the market will be what the market will be. In 2010... You sign Mauer to that contract.

[cr9617]

All of this back and forth is somewhat entertaining. It doesn't change the fact that our Hometown Hero is massively overpaid, and his performance since signing the contract has been underwhelming, to say the least. And this contract will hamstring the team for the duration of the deal.

 

The Twins, and Super Joe, have egg on their face.

[CDog]

Your Selective Reader Bias is showing, badly, the "two-day samples" were illustrations, not proofs, the proofs are included. Mauer is definitely a "quality" hitter, but nothing like before (Ben Revere, of all people, has a higher SLG%!// Mauer is on a current pace to break the all-time single-season GIDP record); regarding his baserunning, it's fair to say he's a "good" baserunner, probably a grade below "a fine baserunner". Re Mauer's quotes, the organization itself has acknowledged the PR disaster in Mauer's quotes last year, his two-month Florida "vacation" and his apparent unwillingness to play unless he was "feeling 100%". The proof there is the Twins and Mauer have obviously come to some agreement, this season, to keep Joe "on message" to the media and a mutual commitment to keep him on the field as much as possible.

Yes, I very selectively ignored alllllll the things you said about Mauer's baserunning that were outside of the one game you mentioned (although I did give the benefit of the doubt to add a second game). I also kindly and selectively didn't mention that almost anyone with sense knows that even full season's worth of defensive data can be mis-leading, and even more so for catchers, and let alone 200 innings. I also selectively didn't mention that "most observers" likely means "your own non-objective thoughts." And if it's super fun for you, we can keep going on the merry-go-round where you claim his quotes were ridiculous, I say that I read almost everything I could and didn't hear any that were ridiculous unless twisted by the reader/listener who wanted to hear something ridiculous and then you can say "nuh uh, they were ridiculous" and I can say....etc etc etc. Your attempts at analysis aren't so good, and then your bias begins to show and things get laughable. You imply that nearly everyone expects the negative outcome that you expect (despite that being an unlikely outcome even at it's "record breaking pace"). That example shows your unreasonable and slanted expectation and bias (fact-based). As does your unfounded implication that Mauer's choice would be to not play rather than play (opinion-based).

[Shane Wahl]

God, that Souhan article is trash as usual. Mauer's projected $ value right now, according to Fan Graphs is $20 million. FYI. Maybe morons like Souhan aren't aware that 20 and 23 are close numbers?

[ChuckkJay]

I think the best question is this: How many top level, elite players receive top level, elite contracts - and then go on to make them worth it?

 

It's hard to answer, mostly around the "worth it" part. Use WAR, World Series title, whatever. I don't care to get bogged in the minutiae, it's more of a qualitative question.

 

It would seem the answer is "not very many." I don't have any data, this is my perception.

 

I truly believe that if I were a GM, I'd not sign anyone like this. Pujols, Mauer, Hamilton ... any of them. Let them walk. The fans will get over it in two years if you use the savings to sign good replacements. I can't see how it's ever worth it. For every example of someone making it worth it, there's about 20 cases where it wasn't worth it.

[twinsnorth49]

All of this back and forth is somewhat entertaining. It doesn't change the fact that our Hometown Hero is massively overpaid, and his performance since signing the contract has been underwhelming, to say the least. And this contract will hamstring the team for the duration of the deal.

 

The Twins, and Super Joe, have egg on their face.

 

Ok, they have egg on their face, now what?

[twinsnorth49]

that Souhan article is trash as usual.. morons like Souhan

 

Most accurate comments in this entire thread.

[Nick Nelson]

God, that Souhan article is trash as usual. Mauer's projected $ value right now, according to Fan Graphs is $20 million. FYI. Maybe morons like Souhan aren't aware that 20 and 23 are close numbers?

Fan Graphs statistics are not gospel. That is a highly theoretical number, and citing it as fact seems disingenuous for someone who is casting stones at another writer.

 

I personally don't believe Mauer, at his current rate of production, will be worth $20 million to the Twins this year. And I certainly don't think he'll be worth it if he's still hitting this way and playing 1B/DH exclusively in four years.

[StormJH1]

Agree with Nick, but that has to go both ways. If FanGraphs said that Mauer was worth $6 million right now, critics of Mauer (myself included) shouldn't be have license to use that number to prove he's overpaid. Contract value is highly subjective, and in the case of Mauer, there was value to keeping Mauer that can't be measured with any statistic (such as watching him bowl strikes in Twins commercials, or sing off-key in Minnesota tourism commercials, instead of seeing him in pinstripes and a Yankee hat on SportsCenter).

 

I'm actually surprised how many knowledgeable fans share the view that Mauer is overpaid. A lot of the statheads (Gleeman comes to mind) seem to be able to come up with reasons why Mauer is one of the best in baseball, no matter how much he struggles. Then again, this is the same logic telling us that J.D. Drew is a borderline Hall of Famer. (Seriously. Read Gleeman's analysis of #2 overall picks and WAR).

[NorthwestTwinsFan]

We shouldn't have to dig through advanced statistics to find the hidden value of a guy making $23 million a year. Do you think Rangers fans have to consult Fan Graphs to tell you how good Josh Hamilton is?