2015 MLB Draft Thread

[cmb0252]

I starting following prospects very early last year (maybe not quite this early).  But everything changed so much from March to the draft that in hindsight it was a waste of time.   Guys that were in contention at #1 and I thought we had no shot at went 10 picks behind us, guys like Aiken shot up past us.  I am trying not to get caught up as early this year.  Show me a few weeks out and I will start spending time on it.

 

I would say, from a position standpoint I would think the Twins would take note at how quick Schwarber and Zunino have moved (although Zunino probably moved too quick).  A college catcher in that mold would seem tempting to time with the core guys that we have. Assuming we conclude Pinto is not the guy.

 

Mock from March of last year:

 

1. Rodon

2. Hoffman

3. Beede

4. Turner

5. Kolek

6. Jackson

7. Gatewood

8. Gettys

9. Nola

10. Reid Foley

11. Aiken

12. Gordon

13. Pentacost

14. Zimmer

15. Holmes

 

Actual draft:

 

1. Aiken

2. Kolek

3. Rodon

4. Schwarber

5. Gordon

6. Jackson

7. Nola

8. Freeland

9. Hoffman

10. Conforto

11. Pentacost

12. Medieros

13. Turner

14. Beede

15. Newcomb

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03/2014-mlb-mock-draft-5-0-top-41-picks-2556008.html

I once heard Mel kiper say lists are for me but mocks are for the fans. Even the day before the draft mocks are still not right. The fact that 10 out of the 15 players you named went in the top 15 proves to me why you can follow this early. Some times players move because injuries, some because development, and some just because of money.

[nicksaviking]

That's why I said it is bad for players. ....nothing more or less.

 

A certain travesty.  Their HS peers are fighting for jobs at McDonalds and their college peers are busy getting turned down for jobs despite just spending 40K on a degree.  I can't believe we are forcing these young men to play baseball for a living.  If only we gave them other career paths to chose from.

[tobi0040]

I once heard Mel kiper say lists are for me but mocks are for the fans. Even the day before the draft mocks are still not right. The fact that 10 out of the 15 players you named went in the top 15 proves to me why you can follow this early. Some times players move because injuries, some because development, and some just because of money.

 

I guess it is the write ups.  Last year you would have read how Rodon "Is a clear number 1 and it is not even close".  Or "no way Beede gets past the Cubs at 4".   Those types of things.

[cmb0252]

It's really impressive how much the mlb draft threads have improved over the last three years. So many people taking part so early. I love it as a draft junkie.

 

For fans of Christopher Crawford he started a new site after last years draft and he already has his top 15 HS hitters, HS pitchers, college hitters, and college pitchers lists up. Here is a link to his newish site:

 

http://www.drafttotheshow.com

[diehardtwinsfan]

The draft isn't bad for players, it just doesn't maximize their earnings.  Sorry boys, but it's better than the old way, that is unless one thinks it's OK that the Twins and other non-major markets never get the top talent.

This is a bit more complicated situation I think. The draft as a whole is needed for baseball, as the sport as a whole suffers if the a handful of teams constantly monopolizes the best talent, and that is what happens if there is no draft.

 

But I disagree that this isn't bad for the players. It's an anti-trust issue at it's core. I don't think anyone here would be too happy if all of our potential employers got together and decided who was going to work where and at what salary. That behavior is illegal in any environment except professional sports. They get away with it b/c salaries are collectively bargained. If these guys were on open market, they'd get salaries that were commensurate with the amount of risk the team absorbed and the upside that the player can provide. The guys at the top do OK (though still less than what they'd make on the open market), as they are set for life even if they fail, but it's the guys in the middle rounds who really get screwed as they are lucky to walk away with only a few hundred thousand before taxes. It kind of gets to the issue with the minor leagues. If baseball took care of their basic living expenses, I think the problem largely solves itself. But they don't.

[Dman]

It's really impressive how much the mlb draft threads have improved over the last three years. So many people taking part so early. I love it as a draft junkie.

 

For fans of Christopher Crawford he started a new site after last years draft and he already has his top 15 HS hitters, HS pitchers, college hitters, and college pitchers lists up. Here is a link to his newish site:

 

http://www.drafttotheshow.com

 

Nice link!  I am hoping for a college pitcher with ace upside so that we have plenty of pitching options in 2017.  I don't ever want to live through the horrible pitching we have the last four years.

 

Kinda wish we had that early second rounder as a few of these guys are going to slip.  Oh well the Twins seem to draft better after the second round anyway.

[nicksaviking]

 I don't think anyone here would be too happy if all of our potential employers got together and decided who was going to work where and at what salary. That behavior is illegal in any environment except professional sports.

 

I am anything but an anti-union capitalist, but we act like the potential employers are the Twins, the Dodgers, the Yankees, etc.  The employer is MLB and just as any large corporation, they have the descretion as to which division new hires will be assigned.  They don't do it the same way, but they still do it.  If you don't like the hiring process at Microsoft, go right ahead and find yourself a different employer.

 

I'm not a fan of big business, but despite the MLB's many terrible practices, they are far from the only organization that will bend any rule to best fit their needs.  Walmart employees get screwed far worse than these young men.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I am anything but an anti-union capitalist, but we act like the potential employers are the Twins, the Dodgers, the Yankees, etc.  The employer is MLB and just as any large corporation, they have the descretion as to which division new hires will be assigned.  They don't do it the same way, but they still do it.  If you don't like the hiring process at Microsoft, go right ahead and find yourself a different employer.

 

I'm not a fan of big business, but despite the MLB's many terrible practices, they are far from the only organization that will bend any rule to best fit their needs.  Walmart employees get screwed far worse than these young men.

 

It isn't that simple.  It's not one big employer, it's 30 smaller ones.  Even if it was one bigger one, the other real problem is that players cannot take their skills to a competitor.  They have to work for MLB.  Legally speaking, this is pretty clear.

[tobi0040]

It isn't that simple.  It's not one big employer, it's 30 smaller ones.  Even if it was one bigger one, the other real problem is that players cannot take their skills to a competitor.  They have to work for MLB.  Legally speaking, this is pretty clear.

 

Some competitors do exist.  Andrew Albers made more money in Korea than he would have in MLB/AAA.  If you want to make serious money, north of $10M than MLB is probalby the only game in town.  

 

But it isn't as dramatic as MLB or Burger King.

[TRex]

It isn't that simple.  It's not one big employer, it's 30 smaller ones.  Even if it was one bigger one, the other real problem is that players cannot take their skills to a competitor.  They have to work for MLB.  Legally speaking, this is pretty clear.

It's really, really not that simple, as I am pretty sure that the US government DOES consider it as 1 big employer. Whether we agree is another question, but the first step has to be getting the government to rescind MLBs anti-trust exemption.

 

If others know more, please correct me, but it seems like the litigation needs to come from someone starting a new league, not the players themselves. I don't think there is a rule preventing players from signing with other teams/leagues,  so maybe some rich person will just buy off the top 25 draft picks some year and create his (or her) own traveling team!

[Mike Sixel]

A certain travesty.  Their HS peers are fighting for jobs at McDonalds and their college peers are busy getting turned down for jobs despite just spending 40K on a degree.  I can't believe we are forcing these young men to play baseball for a living.  If only we gave them other career paths to chose from.

 

That's just a logical fallacy. Sorry, but it is.Just because there is still a lot of money being thrown around doesn't make the system good for them, as players (not compared to the money they'd make elsewhere). 

 

Yes, they know what they are in for when they choose baseball, that doesn't make it right, or ideal, or even good for them compared to what another system would be. 

[nicksaviking]

It isn't that simple.  It's not one big employer, it's 30 smaller ones.  Even if it was one bigger one, the other real problem is that players cannot take their skills to a competitor.  They have to work for MLB.  Legally speaking, this is pretty clear.

 

Sure they can.  They do it all the time.  There are all kinds of baseball leagues not affiliated with the MLB.  If you want to work for the top end company, they have certain rules and requirements you have to follow.  If you don't like it, audition for the Saints.

 

I don't like the direction of this conversation though, as I'm not comfortable sticking up for big business.

[nicksaviking]

That's just a logical fallacy. Sorry, but it is.Just because there is still a lot of money being thrown around doesn't make the system good for them, as players (not compared to the money they'd make elsewhere). 

 

Yes, they know what they are in for when they choose baseball, that doesn't make it right, or ideal, or even good for them compared to what another system would be. 

 

What other system?  The system that lets retail stores only hire part time workers so they don't have to pay anyone benefits?  The system that allows Walmart to fire employees who protest for better wages?  The system that lets automotive, pharmaceutical and tobacco companies terminate whistleblowers? 

 

Rare is a workplace that isn't significantly weighted in favor of those cutting the checks.  The MLB draft has nothing on the unfair hiring and firing practices of most major corporations.  Those injustices affect the lives of people who don't have the luxery of getting paid to perform their dream job with the potential to make obscene money.

[bird]

That's why I said it is bad for players. ....nothing more or less.

It's the best system for the overall health of the game. In the long run, it's the best system for the financial benefit of a larger proportion of the players, and it is certainly in the best interest of the fans because of the greater parity. None of the elite prospects are exactly starving to death because the system fails to optimize their potential leverage. Let's face it, the greed is suffocating no matter how you cut it, and this system distributes the satiation of that greed better.

[Mike Sixel]

What other system?  The system that lets retail stores only hire part time workers so they don't have to pay anyone benefits?  The system that allows Walmart to fire employees who protest for better wages?  The system that lets automotive, pharmaceutical and tobacco companies terminate whistleblowers? 

 

Rare is a workplace that isn't significantly weighted in favor of those cutting the checks.  The MLB draft has nothing on the unfair hiring and firing practices of most major corporations.  Those injustices affect the lives of people who don't have the luxery of getting paid to perform their dream job with the potential to make obscene money.

 

I have no idea what any of that has to do with.....is the draft the best system for the players.

 

I have lost interest, so I won't be responding anymore.

[nicksaviking]

I have no idea what any of that has to do with.....is the draft the best system for the players.

 

I have lost interest, so I won't be responding anymore.

 

No one said it was the best system for the players.  The arguement was that it wasn't "bad" for the players.  Something not being perfectly ideal doesn't make it "bad."

 

For most players the draft is good.  The guys drafted in the later rounds already get paid next to nothing.  How much do you think they'd get paid if the top amature free agents took up 95% of a teams minor league payroll instead of 85%?  Without the draft, they're be plenty of guys playing baseball for free.

[diehardtwinsfan]

No one said it was the best system for the players.  The arguement was that it wasn't "bad" for the players.  Something not being perfectly ideal doesn't make it "bad."

 

For most players the draft is good.  The guys drafted in the later rounds already get paid next to nothing.  How much do you think they'd get paid if the top amature free agents took up 95% of a teams minor league payroll instead of 85%?  Without the draft, they're be plenty of guys playing baseball for free.

I don't think it's your or my place to determine whether or not it is the dream job for the guys and whether or not they'd play it for free. People could make that statement about your job and my job too if they wanted to, and if I was a betting man, I'd bet that there would be a lot of professional players NOT playing if the wages (or the chance to earn them) didn't exist. That's part of why they do it.

 

Regardless, of which, the issue at hand has more to do with the structure of baseball. To answer the other posts, yes, it is that simple. Baseball is not a single entity with a single profit/loss statement. It behaves more like a single entity that sells franchise rights to smaller entities who operate these franchises independently. It's more like a Pizza Hut or a McDonalds who operate a corporate office, but see most of the profits handled at the franchise level. Except that in baseball, all the franchise owners get together and decide who works where and how much they get paid. That is, at it's very core, anti-competitive. That is also why it is that baseball needs an anti-trust exemption and why it is that salaries need to be collectively bargained. It would not be legal otherwise.

 

To be clear, I feel dirty when arguing on behalf of unions just as much as some people are on big business. But at the end of the day, I really do think this one is pretty simple. That anti-trust exemption would not need to exist otherwise.

[maxisagod]

It's really impressive how much the mlb draft threads have improved over the last three years. So many people taking part so early. I love it as a draft junkie.

 

For fans of Christopher Crawford he started a new site after last years draft and he already has his top 15 HS hitters, HS pitchers, college hitters, and college pitchers lists up. Here is a link to his newish site:

 

http://www.drafttotheshow.com

So anyway....

 

I'm hoping this year we avoid the Best Player Available vs Best Pitcher Available debate because so many of the top prospects in the draft this year are pitchers. Also with Meyer, May, and Berrios needing to push past all those Veterans in the big league rotation, drafting a college over a high school guy might be less of a debate this year as well.

 

Here's a question, How much does a pitcher being Left hand, influence your drafting wants?    Would you push Nate Kirby, Tyler Jay, or Justin Hooper up your own personal rankings to address the overall org weakness? OR does the fact the Twins don't have their normal 2nd round pick this year put more pressure to make sure your 1st pick is a success? 

[ashbury]

It's really impressive how much the mlb draft threads have improved over the last three years. So many people taking part so early. I love it as a draft junkie.

Moderator's note: I'm going to echo this sentiment, and ask that further posts along the lines of the overall economic system in baseball be taken to a new thread (Sports Bar forum perhaps) started by someone who feels motivated by the topic.  Perfectly fine sub-topic, and my quick scan shows a respectful debate - but, not here, please.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moderator's note: I'm going to echo this sentiment, and ask that further posts along the lines of the overall economic system in baseball be taken to a new thread (Sports Bar forum perhaps) started by someone who feels motivated by the topic.  Perfectly fine sub-topic, and my quick scan shows a respectful debate - but, not here, please.

My apologies   Seeing that I'm the one derailing it. 

[tobi0040]

Here's a question, How much does a pitcher being Left hand, influence your drafting wants?    Would you push Nate Kirby, Tyler Jay, or Justin Hooper up your own personal rankings to address the overall org weakness? OR does the fact the Twins don't have their normal 2nd round pick this year put more pressure to make sure your 1st pick is a success? 

 

I would only draft a left hander if I thought he was going to be a better major league player than another guy. I never understood the you need a lefty in the rotation thing.  That type of logic ensures you have your 8th best pitcher in your rotation because you somehow think it is going to make the other four better, which I don't believe is the case.

[nicksaviking]

My apologies   Seeing that I'm the one derailing it. 

 

Ha, well it takes two (minimum) so my bad as well.  Funny how two guys that so often agree went ahead and derailed the 2015 draft thread before it was actually 2015.

[nicksaviking]

I would only draft a left hander if I thought he was going to be a better major league player than another guy. I never understood the you need a lefty in the rotation thing.  That type of logic ensures you have your 8th best pitcher in your rotation because you somehow think it is going to make the other four better, which I don't believe is the case.

 

Surely there are some people who think you need a lefty.  However I just assume lefties, who have inferrior stuff just often get the benefit of the doubt because left handed hitters all too often inflate their stats for them.  It's like golfing in a tournament with a high handicapped golfer.  He might not be the best, but he looks a lot better when you get to take some strokes off of his game.

 

But I agree, you draft the guy with the best stuff regardless of what hand it comes out of.

[cmb0252]

So anyway....

 

I'm hoping this year we avoid the Best Player Available vs Best Pitcher Available debate because so many of the top prospects in the draft this year are pitchers. Also with Meyer, May, and Berrios needing to push past all those Veterans in the big league rotation, drafting a college over a high school guy might be less of a debate this year as well.

 

Here's a question, How much does a pitcher being Left hand, influence your drafting wants?    Would you push Nate Kirby, Tyler Jay, or Justin Hooper up your own personal rankings to address the overall org weakness? OR does the fact the Twins don't have their normal 2nd round pick this year put more pressure to make sure your 1st pick is a success?

 

You make a great point that not only do we have a ton of pitching prospects but they are also close to the bigs so BPA vs need won't be the same as past years. While I always support BPA I understand why people could still want the Twins to focus on pitching because we all know you can never have enough of it. You know...and there are a ton of interesting arms this year.

 

Regardless if the big league rotation has 0-5 lefties in it I'm always a fan of drafting as many lefty arms as possible. If you have two equal pitching prospects give me the lefty because there are so few of them. That being said I wouldn't want the Twins to reach for one over better righty pitchers (which they won't). Currently my favorite LHPer outside of Aiken (if healthy) is kolby Allard. Law had him ranked #5 on his board and here is what he had to say:

 

"The 6-foot Allard was by far the best prep pitcher on the showcase circuit over the summer, showing easy 92-95 mph velocity with a plus curveball, along with an athletic body and some room to fill out."

 

While he is small he already has plus fastball velocity and a plus curve ball (my favorite secondary pitch).

[Dman]

I am kind of hoping for one of the college pitchers.  I think that could maximize the number of good to great pitchers we have coming up in 2017.  Some of the pitchers we think are gonna make it will fail so would like to increase the odds around that time frame as most of our young good players should be in the Majors.

[twinsfanstreif]

So anyway....

 

I'm hoping this year we avoid the Best Player Available vs Best Pitcher Available debate because so many of the top prospects in the draft this year are pitchers. Also with Meyer, May, and Berrios needing to push past all those Veterans in the big league rotation, drafting a college over a high school guy might be less of a debate this year as well.

 

Here's a question, How much does a pitcher being Left hand, influence your drafting wants?    Would you push Nate Kirby, Tyler Jay, or Justin Hooper up your own personal rankings to address the overall org weakness? OR does the fact the Twins don't have their normal 2nd round pick this year put more pressure to make sure your 1st pick is a success? 

I've never liked the BPA argument. I get the idea in a vacuum but as fans it's kind of a weak idea, to me that says "I don't care, whoever the scouts like" it's kind of a cop-out. and you're right, most of the top players are pitchers.

 

To answer your question for me it does a little but not a lot. I'm a big Nathan Kirby fan and I would like him weather he's a righty or lefty. Him being a lefty puts him over the top. People elevated Appel because he is a lefty and I thought that was a mistake, I didn't like him then and I still don't like him (as a player, I'm sure he's a fine human being). Hooper's ability to hit 100 on the gun and his potential makes him intriguing but I think he'll drop because he needs a complete overhaul in his mechanics and he has trouble hitting the strike zone, teams are cautious when it comes to guys like that because their bust potential is high, look at how Gatewood dropped last year.

 

The Twins not having their 2nd rounder is an interesting thought that I haven't really thought about although they've used their 2nd rounders on project starters or bullpen arms in the past so I don't know if it'll be a factor. plus we do have a supplemental 2nd rounder that's about 20 slots below our normal 2nd.

 

When it's all said and done I think we tab a college (or JUCO) pitcher because it's heavy on the top end and with Rodgers and/or Cameron likely to go ahead of us we should have at least one of Matuella, Kirby, Aiken, Bickford, or Buehler left. If those 5 go 1-5 then we take Rodgers/Cameron or maybe Allard. It will be interesting to see how things shape out in the next several months!

[diehardtwinsfan]

I am kind of hoping for one of the college pitchers.  I think that could maximize the number of good to great pitchers we have coming up in 2017.  Some of the pitchers we think are gonna make it will fail so would like to increase the odds around that time frame as most of our young good players should be in the Majors.

 

I'm on the other side of this fence.  There's Meyer, Berrios, and May in the high minors and Stewart, Hu, Thrope, and Gonsalves in the lower minors.  Thats' plenty of high upside guys moving through the system.  I think I'd rather have the prep pitcher as usually they have higher upside than the college pitchers.  A college pitcher with high upside won't be there at our pick.

 

Oh, side note, the Twins lost their 2nd rounder signing Santana, but they do have a competitive balance pick at the end of the 2nd.  So they aren't devoid of 2nd round picks.

[maxisagod]

Matt Garrioch over at Minor league ball put out his EARLY top 300 prospect list. 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/12/7528383/early-2015-mlb-draft-rankings

 

This isn't a mock, just a list, and Matt tends to have a good eye for talent, but by no means follows industry group think. 

 

Couple things of note: Michael Matuella has dropped out of the top 5... all the way to 29! This might have something to do with the Cape cod league or a poor showing in front of Matt. 

 

Also Kyle Cody might be a target in the second round... though some have suggested he'd going in the bottom of the 1st round. 

[nytwinsfan]

Remember though that our second round pick is at 72, not 47 because of Ervin Santana.

[gunnarthor]

Remember though that our second round pick is at 72, not 47 because of Ervin Santana.

Don't we have a supp pick?