Article: Mike Pelfrey's Stuggles: Small Sample or Larger Concerns?

[Willihammer]

DL him. His fastball is sitting at 89-90 today. Something is wrong.

 

Sinkerballers work better when they are a little tired and don't throw so hard

 

-Nick Blackburn

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sinkerballers work better when they are a little tired and don't throw so hard

 

-Nick Blackburn

 

True, but Pelfrey isn't a dedicated sinkerballer. He usually sits at 92+ mph with little movement.

[cmathewson]

Another quantity start* for Pelfrey today.

 

*4 innings, 5 runs or less.

[ericchri]

I couldn't even begin to guess why he's been this terrible, but he needs to be out of the rotation. Now. We don't have PJ Walters and Pedro Hernandez waiting in line to take his spot, we have one potential all-star along with 2-3 others which look like they could be serviceable or better. They can fall flat on their face in the majors and still match his output.

[sabrtoothtiger]

I hope management understands the idea of a sunk cost. They shouldn't change their behavior because of past decisions they can't take back. Just because he's making $5.5m this year can't justify running him out there every five days. Pelfrey hasn't shown that he's good enough to continue pitching with the major league club. He's striking out the fewest batters of any Twin (8.2%) and walked the most (15.3%). On the other hand, last year's only decent pitcher is playing mop-up man in the bullpen and there are a quartet of pitchers at AAA who could make a difference right now. Heck, so far this year the Twins might be better off with a rotation of Gibson, Deduno, May, Meyer, and Johnson/Darnell.

[cmathewson]

I hope management understands the idea of a sunk cost.

 

Apparently, Antony doesn't understand the concept. When asked why he signed Pelfrey to a two-year deal after last year's debacle, he said he wanted to see some benefit from last year's investment. It is one of the more baffling things the guy has ever said publicly. And this is a guy who defended the Delmon Young trade in 2010, and praised choosing Nishioka over Hardy because the former is more athletic.

[Mike Sixel]

Not to worry, it's not like he's the interim and potential long term GM or anything....Sunk costs have been taught in b-school for over 40 years, and the Twins still don't grasp the concept.

[sabrtoothtiger]

Apparently, Antony doesn't understand the concept. When asked why he signed Pelfrey to a two-year deal after last year's debacle, he said he wanted to see some benefit from last year's investment. It is one of the more baffling things the guy has ever said publicly. And this is a guy who defended the Delmon Young trade in 2010, and praised choosing Nishioka over Hardy because the former is more athletic.

 

Apparently they never want to stop paying for their mistakes.

[sabrtoothtiger]

Antony's comments make me wonder something, and I'd be interested in hearing what other people know about it. How advanced is the Twins FO in terms of research? I know they're not the Athletics or Rays, but do they have much in terms of advanced analytics? Or are they still all about the hustle and grit that Gardy always talks about?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Antony's comments make me wonder something, and I'd be interested in hearing what other people know about it. How advanced is the Twins FO in terms of research? I know they're not the Athletics or Rays, but do they have anything going on?

 

Jack Goin is the head of their statistical analysis and he has at least a couple part-timers under him. It's not a large group but it's growing in both size and influence, it seems.

[Willihammer]

Sometimes you need to stick with guys as they work through their slumps. I'm not sure this is one of those times with Pelfrey. Given the precipitous drop in velo, I think its likely that his problems are physical, not mental or mechanical.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sometimes you need to stick with guys as they work through their slumps.

 

Yep.

 

I'm not sure this is one of those times with Pelfrey. Given the precipitous drop in velo, I think its likely that his problems are physical, not mental or mechanical.

 

And yep.

[thetank]

I thought he was going to be a cy young winner in the near future. His sabremetrics was owing to get him to his full potential after his surgery.

[cmathewson]

Jack Goin is the head of their statistical analysis and he has at least a couple part-timers under him. It's not a large group but it's growing in both size and influence, it seems.

 

It's definitely growing in influence, but that influence looks more apparent for the field staff than the FO. For example, the team has a noticeably more patient approach than past teams. That's Goin's influence in action.

[S.]

Regardless of whether his problems are physical, mental, mechanical, or anything in between, he has no business being anywhere near a MLB roster pitching like this. You let a Kershaw or a Verlander or a King Felix work through their slumps. You don't let a career 1.5 WHIP, 4.5 ERA "work through" being a bad pitcher + whatever combination of other factors is going on.

[Mike Sixel]

Do we think they'll actually do anything with his next start? What's your prediction?

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's definitely growing in influence, but that influence looks more apparent for the field staff than the FO. For example, the team has a noticeably more patient approach than past teams. That's Goin's influence in action.

 

I think that's Brunansky, not Goin.

 

Jack Goin doesn't have influence on guys like Pinto, Plouffe, and Suzuki suddenly figuring it out. He can acquire guys who have a track record of patience but he can't turn impatient hitters into patient ones.

[luckylager]

Postgame, Pelfrey sounded pretty much resigned to whatever fate he has coming. He sounded as discouraged as I have ever heard any player. Hope he is given and accepts a chance to work things out in Rochester.

[iTwins]

Do we think they'll actually do anything with his next start? What's your prediction?

 

I'd wager he gets sent to the DL and allowed to work on things while "rehabbing" in the minors. I don't see how the Twins can roll him out for another start.

[cmathewson]

I think that's Brunansky, not Goin.

 

Jack Goin doesn't have influence on guys like Pinto, Plouffe, and Suzuki suddenly figuring it out. He can acquire guys who have a track record of patience but he can't turn impatient hitters into patient ones.

 

Well,... Bruno is the guy who coaches the players to be more patient. But Goin is the guy who coaches the coaches. Gardy has a running joke about the reports he's supposed to take into account and pass to his field staff. That's what I'm talking about.

 

To think that just a few years ago, they had Ulger telling all the hitters to swing at the first pitch.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

For me the problem goes beyond Pelfrey.

 

Take out Pelfrey's starts and here is the ERA of the other four: 5.86.

 

But I think Pelf is done for a while after today. He sounded completely discouraged after one of his previous starts too, almost like he was asking to be relieved from the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Absolutely. And a pitcher of Pelfrey's calibre simply cannot afford to punt on an entire month every season.

 

I thought games in April counted less.

[cmathewson]

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 6m Gardy on Pelfrey: "Everybody roots for him. He’s a great guy, great in the clubhouse. But this is the big leagues. It's all about results."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He doesn't look like the same pitcher this year. He's not throwing as hard, nor does his stuff have as much sink to it. If I were a pitching coach, I would say he's not finishing his pitches, which is why they're slower, straighter and higher than they were late last year. Is it s physical issue preventing him from having good mechanics? That's my suspicion.

 

When can you start? Can you get to the park tonight?

[Guest USAFChief]

Is it just me, or do the Twins always seem to sign "veteran innings eater guy" one day after the guy decides to go on a diet?

[Mike Sixel]

Is it just me, or do the Twins always seem to sign "veteran innings eater guy" one day after the guy decides to go on a diet?

 

 

great line

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is it just me, or do the Twins always seem to sign "veteran innings eater guy" one day after the guy decides to go on a diet?

 

Are you suggesting we should have signed Bartolo Colon?

[Macneil4025]

I quit as a Twins Fan if they don't send him to the minors, he is terrible!!! Let him figure it out in AAA ball. He needs to build his confidence back up, and he is currently killing the Twins! If Kris Johnson pitches respectable he should stay up, bring up Yohan Pino, bring up Logan Darnell, im over the Pelfrey experiment, over it!!

[sabrtoothtiger]

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 6m Gardy on Pelfrey: "Everybody roots for him. He’s a great guy, great in the clubhouse. But this is the big leagues. It's all about results."

 

Yikes.

[Guest USAFChief]

Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 6m Gardy... " this is the big leagues. It's all about results."

ironic much?