Mark Appel sent to EST

[gunnarthor]

Last year's #1 overall pick has had a tough time adjusting to A ball and a pro pitcher's 5 day schedule. So the Astros sent him back to EST hoping to get him right.

 

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/4/25/5654422/astros-send-top-prospect-appel-to-extended-spring-training

 

The 22 year old was at the Astros high A team (equivalent to the Twins Ft Myers team where the 20 year old Berrios is our best pitching prospect). Astros have had some interesting drafts these last few years, passing on Buxton, Gausman, Zunino, Gray and Bryant (among others) to nab Correa and Appel. Correa is also at A+ and holding his own.

[biggentleben]

Last year's #1 overall pick has had a tough time adjusting to A ball and a pro pitcher's 5 day schedule. So the Astros sent him back to EST hoping to get him right.

 

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2014/4/25/5654422/astros-send-top-prospect-appel-to-extended-spring-training

 

The 22 year old was at the Astros high A team (equivalent to the Twins Ft Myers team where the 20 year old Berrios is our best pitching prospect). Astros have had some interesting drafts these last few years, passing on Buxton, Gausman, Zunino, Gray and Bryant (among others) to nab Correa and Appel. Correa is also at A+ and holding his own.

 

Gray was 2011. They picked 11th that year and grabbed Springer.

[Mike Sixel]

Correia was also about going under slot, and getting another top guy later, though. It was sort of a 1.5 for 1 trade, if you know what I mean. And, Correia has looked worthy of a top pick (if not the top pick). I've also read that there may be an injury issue with Appel.....which would suck. I like to see the best players play.

[Willihammer]

I wonder about injury too. Hard to explain it otherwise.

[gunnarthor]

Gray was 2011. They picked 11th that year and grabbed Springer.

 

No, Jonathan Gray was picked in 2013. Third player taken overall.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gray--001jon

[TRex]

The MiLB article I read emphasized that Appel is not injured, but also notes that his FB velocity is down considerably this spring.

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140426&content_id=73415214&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_l110&sid=l110

[gunnarthor]

I wonder about injury too. Hard to explain it otherwise.

 

He did have an appendectomy in the offseason and may not have fully healed when he came back and started pushing. Sort of Mauer's leg surgery fiasco.

[Monkeypaws]

This guy's career hasn't really gone as planned so far.

[biggentleben]

No, Jonathan Gray was picked in 2013. Third player taken overall.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gray--001jon

 

Figured you meant Sonny Gray. Not sure anyone can rip them at this point regardless as those players are still in the minors. That Appel hasn't leaped forward isn't their fault as the teams who had other picks very likely would have made the same pick. Correa was another story, but even then, it's hard to rip them too much for that overall draft, which is what made Correa the #1 pick, part of the beauty of the current system for the draft.

[jimv2]

The MiLB article I read emphasized that Appel is not injured, but also notes that his FB velocity is down considerably this spring.

 

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140426&content_id=73415214&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_l110&sid=l110

 

Hmm. Sounds like bilateral arm weakness to me.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm in the camp of I want to see the great talents play, so hopefully it's a short-term thing and he can get to the big leagues soon. That said, when this story came out last week, it certainly opened a lot of eyes.

[cmathewson]

I don't wish him any ill will, and I hope he recovers. But I also hope young players take a lesson from this. Take the opportunities you are given and don't hold out for a huge payout. Tomorrow isn't a given to any of us.

[Seth Stohs]

I don't wish him any ill will, and I hope he recovers. But I also hope young players take a lesson from this. Take the opportunities you are given and don't hold out for a huge payout. Tomorrow isn't a given to any of us.

 

Either that or take the big payout whenever you can because nothing is guaranteed later.

[ashbury]

Either that or take the big payout whenever you can because nothing is guaranteed later.

 

Or, treat life as a multi-stage stochastic process, take your best forecasts and make your decisions at each stage, and then live with the results. [/geek]

[Craig Arko]

Or, treat life as a multi-stage stochastic process, take your best forecasts and make your decisions at each stage, and then live with the results. [/geek]

 

There's no chain like a Markov Chain.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Or, treat life as a multi-stage stochastic process, take your best forecasts and make your decisions at each stage, and then live with the results. [/geek]

 

I once had a Russian chemistry professor explain stoichiometry with cheeseburgers as an example.......it was glorious; I was the only one awake.

[ashbury]

I once had a Russian chemistry professor explain stoichiometry with cheeseburgers as an example.......it was glorious; I was the only one awake.

 

I once had Russian dressing, then I found out it has beets in it. Ew.

 

/ PS: stochastic != stoichiometry, as I bet you know

[Brock Beauchamp]

Correa is also at A+ and holding his own.

 

I'd say he's doing more than holding his own. He's 19 at high A and has a .300/.366/.463 slash.

[tobi0040]

Either that or take the big payout whenever you can because nothing is guaranteed later.

 

Or listen to the people around you that care about you, not your agent. Scott Boras has a portfolio of 100's of clients. So if Appel turned down #8 money to go back to school, he was taking on a lot more risk than Boras, who is obviously already a multi-millionaire.

 

Same for a guy like Max Scherzer. Boras would love you to turn down $150M and become a free agent in a year. If he does that with each of his 100 clients, he will be better rewarded because although a few will get hurt, he will still end up ahead with those that didn't (not to mention his clients that hit the FA market will push up the highest AAV values, helping his other clients). But if you are Appel or Scherzer, take the security.

[gunnarthor]

Or listen to the people around you that care about you, not your agent. Scott Boras has a portfolio of 100's of clients. So if Appel turned down #8 money to go back to school, he was taking on a lot more risk than Boras, who is obviously already a multi-millionaire.

 

Same for a guy like Max Scherzer. Boras would love you to turn down $150M and become a free agent in a year. If he does that with each of his 100 clients, he will be better rewarded because although a few will get hurt, he will still end up ahead with those that didn't (not to mention his clients that hit the FA market will push up the highest AAV values, helping his other clients). But if you are Appel or Scherzer, take the security.

 

Actually, it worked out for Appel - going back to school netted him several more millions than if he had signed with the Pirates (it also helped the Twins net Stewart by adding one more pick into the 2013 draft).

[gunnarthor]

I'd say he's doing more than holding his own. He's 19 at high A and has a .300/.366/.463 slash.

 

Yeah, that's impressive but it's also a hitters league - I believe he's around 30th in each of those triple slash categories (Buxton, for comparison, was also 19 last year in A+ and was among the leaders in his league in those categories, which was also more of a pitcher's league). He's also sat out about a week with a minor injury. I wasn't trying to disparage Correa, he's a legit prospect and a better one than Appel.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, that's impressive but it's also a hitters league - I believe he's around 30th in each of those triple slash categories (Buxton, for comparison, was also 19 last year in A+ and was among the leaders in his league in those categories, which was also more of a pitcher's league). He's also sat out about a week with a minor injury. I wasn't trying to disparage Correa, he's a legit prospect and a better one than Appel.

 

True, it's a hitter's league but it's also only the first month of the season at a new level. I think it's safe to say Correa's numbers will continue to climb as he adjusts.

 

But I didn't take it that you were disparaging Correa.

[tobi0040]

Actually, it worked out for Appel - going back to school netted him several more millions than if he had signed with the Pirates (it also helped the Twins net Stewart by adding one more pick into the 2013 draft).

 

 

You missed the point. Look how much risk he took on. What if he struggled, got hurt, or his velo dropped last year at Stanford? I would guess he had at least a 25% shot of that happening. Now he goes 25th overall or something. Let's not forget, he went 8th overall because of Boras demands in the first place. The slot at 1-1 was $7.9M and he ended up getting only $6.3M the following year.

 

AND, he is now another year removed from arbitration and free agency. Just silly.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2013-mlb-assigned-draft-pick-values

[gunnarthor]

You missed the point. Look how much risk he took on. What if he struggled, got hurt, or his velo dropped last year at Stanford? I would guess he had at least a 25% shot of that happening. Now he goes 25th overall or something. Let's not forget, he went 8th overall because of Boras demands in the first place. The slot at 1-1 was $7.9M and he ended up getting only $6.3M the following year.

 

AND, he is now another year removed from arbitration and free agency. Just silly.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2013-mlb-assigned-draft-pick-values

 

I'm sure he got insurance for his senior year which covered some of that. And I don't think it makes a lot of sense for a college player to worry about getting the big paycheck from arbitration/free agency at the cost of his first contract. In a best case scenario for Appel, he would have ended up debuting at the same age, regardless of the extra college year. In the worst case, he never makes the adjustment to MLB and doesn't make the majors.

[maxisagod]

You missed the point. Look how much risk he took on. What if he struggled, got hurt, or his velo dropped last year at Stanford? I would guess he had at least a 25% shot of that happening. Now he goes 25th overall or something. Let's not forget, he went 8th overall because of Boras demands in the first place. The slot at 1-1 was $7.9M and he ended up getting only $6.3M the following year.

 

AND, he is now another year removed from arbitration and free agency. Just silly.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2013-mlb-assigned-draft-pick-values

 

 

The risk for Appel was less than other players. He comes from a more affluent family, Would collected a college degree from a good school, and had his arm insured by Lloyds of London, so if it did fall off his Senior year, he'd still be a millionaire. So that would leave the high stakes Black Jack scenario your talking about, where you have a million in your pocket (25th pick) 3 million on the table (8th pick in 2012) and 6-8 million if you win (1st overall). Worst case, Your a millionaire, best case your a even richer millionaire.

 

The REAL risk is going to a college program with a history of pitchers getting overwork/ overused and Alumni who never live up to their promise due to injury. Now that your in that program another year, did you just give up a future 100 million contract at 32, because your career was derailed by injures? hmmmm.

[tobi0040]

I'm sure he got insurance for his senior year which covered some of that. And I don't think it makes a lot of sense for a college player to worry about getting the big paycheck from arbitration/free agency at the cost of his first contract. In a best case scenario for Appel, he would have ended up debuting at the same age, regardless of the extra college year. In the worst case, he never makes the adjustment to MLB and doesn't make the majors.

 

The insurance part is tricky. If he got hurt to the point he could never play again he gets a payout. But in a more likely scenario where he is damaged and plays a little, his stock drops and his contract is much lighter. Insurance rarely covers where you will be drafted, only a payout in the event you can't play at all due to injury.

 

In the scenario Max is pointing to, this reduces the chances he ever gets the big payday.