Beautiful article!

A step further:  What do we need?  Big bopper Right-handed professional hitter (eg JD Martinez, N Castellanos, J Abreu/Y Alverez, P Goldschmidt).

Now is the time to pounce; Trade E Joulian and either Larnach/Wallner to St Louis for P Goldschmidt (similar to last year's Arreaz for Lopez trade).

Lee at 2B this coming year!!

17 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

The price.

Not necessarily the AAV, but the number of years.

Gotcha.

Read a great article on The Athletic about Gray really liking MN and what MN is doing but will field offers.  

I'd be concerned about the years as well. He is 34, I'd be OK with 3 years not 5 and nervous about 4.

On 10/12/2023 at 11:33 AM, Not Greg Gagne said:

What's the over/under on the amount of free agents that are back next year? I'd be tempted to set it at 0.5 with the bet essentially being will Taylor re-sign.

Gray, Gallo, and Keuchel are a definite "no" and Maeda, Pagan, and Mahle depend on how they like some young arms (which I think they do) and Paddack's health/stuff (which seems fine). Solano is the only other possible returner to me and I think there is enough infield talent elsewhere on the roster to find a platoon 1B/UTL option.

An article I read quoted Gray as saying that the dollars won't be the deciding factor. He said his family likes it here and that he is happy here. I'm still thinking he leaves but there is a chance he stays.

19 hours ago, Brandon said:

I think the Twins have a chance of resigning Gray.  Depends on how much he wants.  He is durable enough meaning he avoids the serious injuries.  If the will go 3 at 70 million the Twins should be in the conversation.  At least with Free agency the way it is too heavy with starting pitching helps the Twins in that they can find a starter if they want. There will be options.  And the rotation would be my biggest concern going into the offseason with the need for a number 2-3 starter and depth too.  Next year we have Lopez, Paddack, Ober, Varland, and……. A good number 2-3 would keep the rotation a strength.  
 

Im curious to see the Pagan saga play out.  Do we or don’t we resign him.  
 

I can see the Twins resigning Solano.  Depends on if they want to keep Farmer and Gordon and Castro next season.  I think one of the bunch is gone.  The biggest reason not to bring him back is so his playing time goes to Lee so Lee can compete for rookie of the year.  Doesn’t the team get an incentive pick if the rookie of the year starts the season on the team and plays the whole season?
 

If Gray signs elsewhere for 50 million + we essentially traded a # 20-25 pick. (I forget where Petty was Drafted) for 2 years of Gray and a 31-35 pick.  That’s a good deal.  

You forgot Ryan

7 hours ago, PatG said:

Beautiful article!

A step further:  What do we need?  Big bopper Right-handed professional hitter (eg ...N Castellanos, Y Alverez, P Goldschmidt).

Too bad Castellanos isn't in a contract year (or Alvarez for that matter). He earned himself a payday that series. Just for giggles, I looked at my favorite trade tool (you know the kind that doesn't take into account real world scenarios and only looks at raw data to determine player value) to see what trades for these guys would look like. Sign me up for Alvarez, even though he is a lefty, everyday. Ryan would be a hard one to say goodbye to, but the idea of essentially flipping Cruz for Alvarez is a pretty sweet (and imaginary) deal. FWIW, Castellanos' contract ($20m/yr for 3 more years) gives him negative value so the Twins would technically over pay by trading Dobnak and Garlick for him - which is a trade I would sign off on.

As for potential signings, Teoscar Hernandez would be my top right-handed hitter to go after, but I don't know how realistic that would be. You could also mark me down for interest in a C.J. Cron reunion as a 1B/DH platoon to replace/upgrade Solano and I would be really interested to see if the White Sox decline Tim Anderson's $14m option. That could be a huge "buy low" opportunity where, if you believe in your clubhouse leaders to keep in check whatever was going on in Chicago, at worst you have essentially Willi Castro to platoon with Julien and an All-Star at best.

30 minutes ago, Karbo said:

An article I read quoted Gray as saying that the dollars won't be the deciding factor. He said his family likes it here and that he is happy here. I'm still thinking he leaves but there is a chance he stays.

I saw that too. Count me as cynical until I see a player follow through on that kind of talk. Money won't be the deciding factor in the sense that he will have a lot of options where the money is essentially the same and he can choose between two or three areas to have his family stay during the season, and two or three tax treatments for half of his income, and so on. Then there will be the Twins' offer along with all the other mid-market teams. Ecstatic to be proven wrong here.

Rather than trading for Goldschmidt I think we should go after Bellinger instead. He's 5/6 yrs younger and he fills a need at 1B, and he appears to be back on track offensively. ( .307/26/970 would look really nive in the 3 or 4 hole. I'm not sure if he's a FA this year or next, but maybe Cubs would like a pkg of Miranda/Larnarch and a pitcher.?

You never mentioned Pablo Lopez who is THE reason we advanced. As far as the off-season, I don't trust that Bellinger will repeat this season's success. I'll wait to see who will be available. I'd float a Buxton trade to see what we might be able to get. As good as he is, he does us no good being hurt all the time. 

21 hours ago, Chaz1966 said:

Rather than trading for Goldschmidt I think we should go after Bellinger instead. He's 5/6 yrs younger and he fills a need at 1B, and he appears to be back on track offensively. ( .307/26/970 would look really nive in the 3 or 4 hole. I'm not sure if he's a FA this year or next, but maybe Cubs would like a pkg of Miranda/Larnarch and a pitcher.?

Bellinger is a free agent this year. Although he is a very exciting player, I would steer clear of him and the big payday he is going to get this offseason, too risky for somebody who is coming off a good year after multiple below average ones.

5 hours ago, twinfan said:

You never mentioned Pablo Lopez who is THE reason we advanced. As far as the off-season, I don't trust that Bellinger will repeat this season's success. I'll wait to see who will be available. I'd float a Buxton trade to see what we might be able to get. As good as he is, he does us no good being hurt all the time. 

I guess I somehow did forget. I also agree that Bellinger would be smart to stay away from. I am not sure as far as Buxton goes.

Excellent overview! With all the playoff excitement, I completely forgot about Mauer's first appearance on the HOF ballot. I'm confident he'll get in either this time or next. I anticipate this one being pretty close...

Which Twins do you think are 'untouchable' at present? Lewis for sure. I'd put Jenkins right up there given his offensive ceiling. Lee and Julien are super close too. Next tier for me would be Duran and Wallner - 'nearly untouchable'...which is where Luis Arraez probably was a year ago. Lopez and Correa might be 'functionally untouchable' given that they're both under multi-year contracts and have demonstrated many reasons to believe that they are important cornerstones of the franchise.

1 hour ago, alexlegge said:

Excellent overview! With all the playoff excitement, I completely forgot about Mauer's first appearance on the HOF ballot. I'm confident he'll get in either this time or next. I anticipate this one being pretty close...

Which Twins do you think are 'untouchable' at present? Lewis for sure. I'd put Jenkins right up there given his offensive ceiling. Lee and Julien are super close too. Next tier for me would be Duran and Wallner - 'nearly untouchable'...which is where Luis Arraez probably was a year ago. Lopez and Correa might be 'functionally untouchable' given that they're both under multi-year contracts and have demonstrated many reasons to believe that they are important cornerstones of the franchise.

Zero chance of being moving on: Lopez, Correa and Buxton.

Nowadays every one else is trade bait.

6 hours ago, alexlegge said:

Excellent overview! With all the playoff excitement, I completely forgot about Mauer's first appearance on the HOF ballot. I'm confident he'll get in either this time or next. I anticipate this one being pretty close...

Which Twins do you think are 'untouchable' at present? Lewis for sure. I'd put Jenkins right up there given his offensive ceiling. Lee and Julien are super close too. Next tier for me would be Duran and Wallner - 'nearly untouchable'...which is where Luis Arraez probably was a year ago. Lopez and Correa might be 'functionally untouchable' given that they're both under multi-year contracts and have demonstrated many reasons to believe that they are important cornerstones of the franchise.

Thank you! Honestly I have never really thought of who would be considered untouchable. Royce for sure, but otherwise your guesses are just as good as mine.

On 10/13/2023 at 7:49 AM, PatG said:

Beautiful article!

A step further:  What do we need?  Big bopper Right-handed professional hitter (eg JD Martinez, N Castellanos, J Abreu/Y Alverez, P Goldschmidt).

Now is the time to pounce; Trade E Joulian and either Larnach/Wallner to St Louis for P Goldschmidt (similar to last year's Arreaz for Lopez trade).

 

Lee at 2B this coming year!!

Goldschmidt for Julien and Larnach/Wallner?  Let's look at just Goldy versus Eddie.

Goldy:  593 AB, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 11 SB, .268 AVG

Eddie:  338 AB, 16 HR, 37 RBI. 3 SB, .263 AVG

Now prorate Eddie's numbers to match Goldy's AB.

Eddie:  593 AB, 28 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB, .263 AVG.

The numbers are not too dissimilar.  But Goldy is 36 and Eddie is 24.  I would not make that trade straight up much less with another young bat thrown in.

Goldy is a good defender, always has been and the Twins need a good 1st baseman.

Thanks for that!

We easily have 7 or 8 spots that can easily be replaced with trades and younger talent . 

On 10/12/2023 at 8:54 AM, Karbo said:

Why do you think they non-tender Farmer? Everything I've heard about him is positive and he's a decent fielder and hitter, especially against lefties. With this team being a primary LH hitting club they need a guy like Farmer.

On 10/12/2023 at 1:55 PM, cjm0926 said:

It is just something that is possible, I'm not sure if they will or not. Similar to Gio Urshela last year, they may not want to pay that much for his last arb year and rather save his spot for a new acquisition or young guy such as Brooks Lee

I would absolutely hang onto him regardless. He is such a good fit for this team. He hit LHP better than Solano (in every triple slash) and is a far better glove.

There are only 4 infielders on the roster that are sure things come opening day 2024: Lewis, Correa, Polanco, Julien. Farmer might be the backup for all spots. He also provides insurance if they trade Polanco.

Finally, there is a dearth of FA SSs on the market. Farmer could likely pull in a 2/20 contract because of that. At least 1/12. That means he has surplus value if they decide to trade him instead. Unlike Urshella, I think he brings back a fringe top 15 prospect. 

On 10/16/2023 at 12:02 PM, RpR said:

Goldy is a good defender, always has been and the Twins need a good 1st baseman.

True. Love Goldy. He also has a no trade contract and has specifically stated his intent to stay in St. Louis. It's a great baseball town. 

I'm a little perplexed why folks keep suggesting trades of players with NTC who have also explicitly stated their wishes.

One thing the squad needs to do is watch last nights ALCS. Sure there were a couple of HR's but there was more players shortening their swing to go the other way or just trying to protect the zone. Alvarez's two strike, 2 RBI base hit was an example of what the Twins never do. Tough pitch inside and he did just enough to muscle it into CF. Most of the Twins batters would have either swung for the fences and missed or just let it go. 

There's a reason the Rangers and Astros are still playing and the Twins are not, and it's got nothing to do with talent.