Yasmani Tomas defects

I put this out on the payroll thread as well, but thought I would put it here as well.

This is a good write up and comparison between Tomas and other Cubans.  The skinny, his numbers in Cuba are nowhere near Abreau's numbers.  Scouts believe Tomas as raw 70 power but will strike out a ton.  He was always near the top in the league in K's and this writer thinks it is possible he could be in the 30% range in the big leagues.

His numbers in Cuba resemble Cespedes at the same age, who I think is wildly over-rated.  His last two yeas he has had an OPS of .737 and .751.  Pretty average for a LF and if Tomas's ceiling is in this range he is not worthy of the contract that is likely to be doled out (7-70 or so).

http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/yasmani-tomas-cuban-stats.html

There are two variables affecting his output - the raise of the mount in 2012-2013 and Tomas' wrist injury this summer.

 

It will be up to the Twins talent eval team to make an accurate determination what this guy's true talent is, as well as the medical staff (shudders).

The wrist provides some context to the drop in power.  But you can see that he is still not on Abreau's range.  And they were taking stats at similar age so it does not include this season:

During the 2011-12 season, Abreu hit .394/.542/.837 with 35 home runs, 75 walks and 40 strikeouts in 71 games. Abreu led Serie Nacional in batting, OBP (by 63 points over Alfredo Despaigne), slugging (by 142 points over Despaigne) and OPS. Abreu was an all-star and ranked second in homers—only one behind Despaigne despite having 63 fewer plate appearances—although Despaigne still captured the MVP.

Abreu's arguably the most powerful bat on the planet right now so I don't know if that's a fair standard to weigh him against. Its more fair to compare him to Puig and Cespedes where he still falls a bit short but the gap is closer and depending on these other variables, might be a wash. Its too close to call IMO, just comparing the 3 players' stats, which is why the eval and medicals are so important.

True, but I think teams are going to jump at Tomas because of what Abreu has done.  So the price is going to be way too high IMO. 

I am guessing a FA LF comp in the .750 OPS range will cost a fraction less, in dollars and years.  Or here is a crazy thought, the Rays had .750-.800 OPS production out of their entire outfield the last few years through platooning.  I haven't looked this year, but in 2013 they had bunch of cast aways with that production.

 

Are you suggesting that Tomas projects as a .750 OPS bat? 

 

Picking a team that has done well mixing and matching a platoon of OF'ers doesn't mean that the Twins will be able to do the same.  I think most would consider it unlikely that the Twins could do that.

 

Tomas is certainly intriguing at 24 yrs old with 70 raw power.  I'm all for the Twins dropping some big cash on a player with a future but I'm guessing the bidding goes to 100M.  I doubt the Twins are involved at that point but I'm still interested.

 

It only takes cash to add to a drool worthy list of bats coming up in the next couple of years.  Potentially a stacked top/middle of the order.

Regarding the platooning, I think it would very difficult to NOT have LF production of .750 if we devoted that position to a platoon. Here are a few examples:

Arcia versus Right - career .848 OPS

Plouffe versus Left - career .783 (assumes back half of the year and Sano is up)

Hicks versus left - career .758 OPS

Here is the list of characters around .750 OPS with the Rays in 2013:

Scott - .748

Delmon - .780

Joyce - .747

Dejesus - .741

Jennings - .748

This is why I don't neccesarily want the Twins to spend $70-80M on this guy and why I think advanced metrics are so important in our next managerial decision.

You can get creative and get production from LF without breaking the bank. It is much harder to get creative and get production out of a starting rotation. I would rather invest there.

He's clearly got power, that's for sure. Here is Baseball America's scouting grades after watching him:

 

 

Tomas1.png

 

I'm hesitant on that massive inward leg turn at his loading point which seems to leave him susceptible the outer-half and changing speeds:

 

Tomas.png

 

Plus, he's likely a right fielder, who the Twins already have in Oswaldo Arcia. 

The write up I saw suggested up to a 30% K rate in the big leagues. Had a ton by Cuban standards. He was listed as a 6'1 230 pound guy but he played CF up until last year. I figured maybe he was athletic?

I dunno. I think using the amount of cash it would cost to get Tomas (likely at least $70 million over many years) would be better spent on acquiring another # 2/3 starting pitcher or just extending Phil Hughes (I know others are not sold on this yet). The Twins do not have any standout left fielders in their farm system, but they do have 3 or 4 guys (Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, Walker) that although not fitting the traditional corner mold, could be below average power but above average defense corner outfielders (well, Walker has no power problems, but might have OBP issues). And with Arcia in right, it would be great if Buxton didn't have to worry about pulling up the slack for two other outfielders. I'm not saying we should count on all, or even one of those four to hit well enough to be a MLB corner outfielder, but I think there is a decent chance (50-60%) at least one of the four will end up hitting enough. They all have their issues, but the great thing with a deep system is that only one of the four has to turn the corner. And if they have slightly less power, we already have Vargas, Arcia, and Sano as future mashers, with Dozier, Buxton, (and maybe Pinto) as others likely to contribute more than the average power from their position.

Yes. If the Twins drop $70M on this guy, that is likely all the money we are going to spend this off-season. The starters ERA was 28th last year, we were 5th in runs scored. Lets fix the actual problem.