Dave The Dastardly

I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move.
The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half.
DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!!  I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy.
While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return.
While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler.
 
But if ...  IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis,  the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg  & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.

With the recent good news that Royce Lewis it's just about ready to start an assumedly short rehab assignment, one's mind turns to what happens when he's ready to rejoin the Twins. You have to think that he'll be playing 3B at least three or four times a week and probably more, and we have Castro as a potential 3B backup. What happens to José Miranda in that scenario?
First, the facts. Miranda is hitting .276/.315/.457 (.772) with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 12 RBIs in 105 ABs. He has 16 SOs and 4 walks, (14.5% SO rate, 3.7% walk rate). He's better against LH pitching – .807 OPS – but still respectable against RH pitching with a .722 OPS. His defense at 3B, once a weakness, has improved to a little below average average, with a -2 OAA at 3B and a 0 OAA at 1B. His Statcast chart is not particularly impressive, above average in some things but very little red other than being on the 74th percentile in whiff rate in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate. In other words, the stats so far indicate a little better-than-average player at age 25 with about 750 at bats in MLB so far. Those latter two facts suggest that there is room for improvement to a solidly above average hitter who is an average or slightly above fielder, but those results are far from assured.
I think the Twins have to keep Miranda on the roster and I think he needs to play. His team needs quality RH hitters in the worst way, and Miranda is really the only reinforcement option. Lewis can obviously hit, Correa is a quality hitter, and both Buxton and Jeffers are streaky. The rest of them? Not much there. Margot and Vasquez are well below average hitters even if you only count Margot hitting from the right side. Santana can hit right-handed but is a black hole left-handed, and from a hitting standpoint should only start against left-handed pitching. Farmer can hit left-handed pitching or at least could in the past but he's nearing the end of his career and it's unlikely he's going to have a big pop during this season. he's also somewhere else next year. I think you have to keep Miranda around for his bat and hope his defense improves.
So where do you play him once Lewis is back to play 3B? I think the answer is pretty simple. Miranda plays 4 to 5 days a week, 3 to 4 of them as the 1B against right-handed pitching, a day or two at 3B for Lewis when he is the DH, and he can be the DH once a week, maybe twice. I would also look at him at 2B as the RH alternative to Edward Julien unless Rocco comes to his senses and starts playing Julien every day. Miranda was a 2B in the minors, he's here for the long term, and he's a better hitter than Farmer. I would suggest trying him in LF, but I know they did that in the minors and I hear it was an unmitigated disaster. So my view is Miranda needs to stay, play regularly, and do it in a combination of 1B and 3B. 
This decision is coming in is coming within the next couple weeks hopefully. What he is everybody think?

OK, first off, yes I am old school.  I HATE platooning, and what I hate even more is strictly pinch hitting RH for LH, especially young players.  How the heck is a lefty gonna learn how to hit a lefty if never given the chance???  And what makes no sense to me even MORE is pinch hitting in the 6th inning or earlier!!!
I wish there was some smart analytics guy out there who coudl run stats and prove me either right or wrong.  even if proven right I HATE managing purely by analytics.
 
But anyone who has watched the Twins can probably guess that I am talking about the obsession with pinch hitting for Wallner.
YES he is horrid against lefties, but is pinch hitting Manuel Margot for Wallner... IN THE 6TH INNING any better?  You cannot take just the current AB into account, you have to take into account future ABs.
First, why would you pinch hit Margot for Wallner? Well on the surface Margot has a .281 avg a .341 OBP and .760 OPS to go along with a 109 WRC+ against lefites.
Wallner?  oh a just touch worse at .119 avg .188 OBP and a .442 OPS to go along with an unsightly 21 WRC+.
CLEARLY pinch hitting Margot was the right decision right????  NO!!
This was the 6th inning, which means you are GUARANTEED to have Wallners spot come up again later in the game no matter what happens.(not to mention if it would go to extras) What are teh chances that Wallner would be facing another LHP in his next AB?  lets go ahead and put that one at 0.00%. Why??? Because Herrin is the ONLY LH reliever on the Cleveland roster!!!  SO now  you have to factor in the GUARANTEED matchup of either/both Margot and Wallner when facing RHP to determine the overall probable success rate.  but first let's go back to the Pinch hitting scenario in the 6th.
Wallner is pinch hit for with 2 outs and nobody on.  Now the expected Probability of scoring a run with 2 outs an nobody on is 4.48% (just did a Google).  So even if Wallner strikeouts out there, there is still a 95% probability that we would score the same amount of runs leaving Wallner in there as we would when pinch hitting Margot.  So here is the first analytic data point showing it was a HORRIBLE (yet sadly predictable) move. Now if there was a runner in scoring position, and all we needed was a single, or even extend the inning with a walk, then it could make sense, as Margot's average is 162 points higher than Wallners against lefties.  But again we did not, we needed either a HR, or multiple productive plate appearances in a row to score.  again only 4.48% scoring probability.
SO we are at neutral AT BEST for that pinch hitting situation in a vacuum, now lets take into account at least one (possibly more should the possibility of extra innings come in to play).
What are each of their numbers against RHP in their careers?
Margot = .244 avg  .294 OBP .663 OPS and a 81 WRC+.   SO not overly good.
Wallner = .274 avg  .401 OBP  .935 OPS  with a 161 WRC+.  Basically pretty darn good!!!
Of course since we would not know at the time what the situation of the next AB is (except we ae guaranteed a RHP) so we cannot say what would be needed the most, but by ANY metric, Wallner is the CLEAR preferred batter!!!
need a base hit? Wallner 30 points higher.   Need a walk? Wallner 107 points higher OBP. Need an extra base hit? Wallner 272 point higher OPS.
in actuality (which you cant take later results into consideration when making a decision, but as it turns out it would have been even MORE advantageous to have had Wallner in in the 8th).
That next AB turned out to be with Correa on 2nd and 1 out..  (as it turns out a runner on 2nd with 1 out you score at least 1 run  41.4% ot the time so you would have had a better chance to get the better probability of scoring a run with Wallner than Margot, but again that is in retrospect).
 
Bottom line... HORRIBLE move to pinch hit Manuel Margot for Wallner in the 6th inning with 2 out and nobody on against a team that has no other LHP to use against us in later innings.
 
It is not only the wrong managerial decision, but it is painfully horrible baseball to watch.
 
Now I will go back to yelling at clouds and shooing kids off my lawn.

WAR, what is it? I know it's wins above replacement but what does that mean? How do they come up with that? And what formula do they use? WAR is a stat that drives Fantasy Baseball &  analytical baseball; helps us evaluate individuals, teams & even determine HOF inductees. I've heard that most HOF voters often use total WAR to determine who to vote for unless they have some bias. But is WAR really the end-all means to evaluate a player's worth?
Let's look at catching. Catchers often sacrifice themselves to benefit the team, put a lot of time into evaluating hitters, and getting to know their pitchers, there's a lot of intangibles in being a catcher that are not calculated into WAR. IMO catching is the most important defensive position in baseball. They're in every play, stabilize the rotation & command the defense. But they haven't been fairly represented in the HOF lately. Why is that? It's because WAR is the standard & what affects WAR is HRs, defense is minimized & the intangibles are not considered.
Let me use a case in point, Yadier Molina. Yadi, you probably heard is a very good catcher but until you watch him play you can't really appreciate how elite he really is. Yet there are many that question his credentials of becoming a HOFer, because his WAR isn't high enough (his slugging % is not high enough although his BA is above average, especially for a catcher). Molina put in 19 yrs, all in STL catching every year. The lowest place they finished was once in 4th place yet they had a 89-79 record, during most of those years, STL made it to the postseason, won the NLC 4Xs going to the World Series 4Xs & winning the World Series 2Xs. Most of those years they were mainly considered a pitching/ defense type team. He won 9 GGs, 4 platnium gloves & 10 AS selections.
Some headlines of the Cards downfall last season blamed "the breakdown of the rotation" others "lack of leadership" yet more " poor defense"  & "catching". I think they could all be summed up with "no Molina". Molina stabilized the rotation, he was a leader, he commanded the defense & had great defensive stats of CS% & picking off runners that digressed after he left. Willson Contreras was a top 10 catcher, the most consistant hitting catcher in MLB. But STL pitchers refused to pitch to him in the beginning, Not because he was a terrible pitch caller (he was probably average) or was terrible in handling the pitchers it was because he wasn't Yadi. Molina had an incredible feel for the game, he knew what was going on all time. He knew when to change up the pich calling, pick off runners, when a pitcher should come out etc.
Joe Mauer deservingly was inducted into the HOF because he was the GOAT MLB hitting catcher, yet all MVP Mauer's years in MN, despite MN's greatest postseason SPs duo of Santana & Liriano, MVP Morneau, (CF)Hunter, Cuddyer plus others never had post season success. If I wasn't such a great fan of our honorable hometown hero Mauer & if I had choice between 15 years of Mauer (55.2 WAR) or 19 years of Molina (44.1 WAR), I'd pick Molina.
Now I'm not here to start a Molina for HOF campaign. & most certainly not start an anti-Mauer platform (I strongly denounce that) this has nothing to do about either. I'm here to show how unfair WAR is to exclusively evalute a player. Where hitting HRs raises WAR means everything & SOs & defense means very little.
 

Growing up in the 1950’s was so different for those of us who loved to play baseball. Today you can drive past a ball field during the summer and find it empty. With us we needed to rise early in the morning, have a quick breakfast and ride our bikes to the closest field hoping to be there before another group staked its claim. And besides bringing your baseball equipment, you needed to have a lunch with you. If you didn’t eat lunch at the field you took a chance that the field wouldn't be empty when you returned.
Of course our equipment was different. My glove was a Rawlings John Groth model (outfielder for the Tigers). The glove was small and the web was barely large enough to contain the ball. Only the catcher and first baseman had the "big gloves."
The ball we used was probably coming unstitched and was dark and dirty. If the stitching was too far gone, the ball was covered in electrical tape, normally the shiny kind.
Lastly, we probably only had one or two bats between us and in most cases the bat was probably broken and was held together with either a nail in the bat, or more electrical tape (the non-shiny type acted as a nice grip).  Batting gloves were not thought of at this time, and would have been perceived as unmanly.
We didn’t need adults to organize us, and we didn’t need rides to get to the field.
Most of us played Little League, but usually we were all on different teams. The good players make the “majors” at 10 years old, the lesser at 11 or 12 (12 year olds were not allowed to play in the “minors”).
Our Little League uniforms had been used for a number of years and the knees on our pants probably had a patch or two on them. The shirt and pants were made of flannel, so they lasted for many years, but during the heat of the summer, they were really hot. Our hats and stirrups were made of wool and the stirrups usually needed an elastic at the top of them to stop them from drooping every time you ran.
We had batting helmets, but they were not really helmets, but earmuffs. They were made of leather and came in a couple of sizes.
But baseball was king. There was no organized football for us and very few options for playing basketball. Most football was one or two hand touch and played in the street. Living on a quiet street was a huge plus because you wouldn’t have to keep stopping the game to let cars pass. Basketball rims were at the playground, but many of us hung a basket from our garage and played in our driveway.
Most of us collected and traded baseball cards.
Buying cards was convenient. During the school year, we would walk past two stores near our school that sold baseball cards and penny candy. During the summer our neighborhood was serviced by a traveling store. The vehicle was about the size of a self-contained RV and was like a convenience store on wheels. It came by 3 days a week, and always stopped in our neighborhood, because most of our families were Italian and we had to have Italian bread with our supper.
You could buy cards two ways, for one cent you could buy a pack with one card in it, and for five cents the pack would contain 6 cards.
There was no such strategy of collecting stars. Your goal was to have a complete set, and if you needed to trade a star for one of your missing commons, you’d do it.
Of course we all had a favorite team. Living in Rhode Island there were two options: you rooted for the Red Sox and hated the Yankees, or you rooted for the Yankees and hated the Red Sox. A lot of friends started out as Red Sox fans, but changed their allegiance because the Yankees always won and the Red Sox never did. I would collect and hoard Red Sox players and draw beards and mustaches on Yankee players. I can’t image how many Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra cards I had were ruined because of beards.
Cards were for collecting and making complete sets.
Doubles and triples were used for pitching. Pitching cards was a school yard activity. You would take your extras to school and either at recess or after lunch you’d find an empty area with a wall. Because you were pitching these cards against a wall, there were no cards in mint condition. They all had rounded edges from colliding with a wall, or have creases because you bent the card as you were picking them up off the ground (usually cement or asphalt).
We played three different games and who ever won the previous game would pick the game. The first game was “farzees (pronounced far zees)”. The game was not limited to one player against another, you could put together as large a group as you could find. With farzees you would pitch your card (one toss per player) and the person who’s card stopped closest to the wall would win all the cards. On occasion the card would stand up. A standing card would beat any other card that was tossed.
The second game was “standeez (pronouced stand eez)”. With standeez the person choosing the game would stand a card up against the wall. It would be at about a 30 degree angle. The game would end when someone tossed their card and it knocked the standing card down to the ground. If you knocked the card down, you would win all of the cards that had been tossed up to that point.  Baseball cards were severely damaged in this game. You never wanted to hit the standing card and not knock it down because you didn't toss your card hard enough.
The last game was “topzees (pronouced top zees)”. With topzees the person choosing the game would pitch a card out in the playing area, trying to keep it away from any wall. The winner of the game was the person who would toss their card and it would land on top of any of the cards already on the ground. It didn’t have to cover a lot of the card, just some part of it. The winner would pick up all of the cards that had already been tossed.
Because most of us “pitched” cards, finding cards from the 50’s or early 60’s rarely came in mint or excellent condition. We never anticipated that our cards would ever be worth anything and that the stars would be worth more than the common.  We loved our cards because they were play things, never investments.
Please feel free to leave comments on this article, especially if you are at an age where you may have pitched cards also.
My blog will try to recreate loving the game of baseball and what it was like playing and watching the game in the 50’s and 60’s.
 
 

Author's Note:  The game we attended was on July 23, so I apologize for the late report. But our intent wasn't a game report as much as a players scouting report. 
 
My son (Dastard Junior) and I made the one-day trip down-and-back to Cedar Rapids to catch a glimpse of the Twins High-A Kernels. The four-hour drive (one-way) proved to be a small price to pay. As others have mentioned on TD, the ballpark is great, the fans are friendly and the Kernels are well worth watching. Our tickets were on the first deck, just to the 3rd base side of home plate, so we had a great view of the action. Temps were near 90 degrees but our seats were in the shade (thank God!) so we didn’t fry.

Dastard Jr. had seen the Kernels play several times before hand but at other stadiums, so a home Kernels game was a first for both of us. Junior, because he’d seen the team play before, and me, from the info I’d picked up reading the Minor League reports on TD, both had a general idea of the Kernels’ caliber of play and which players we might find most interesting, but even then we were still surprised.

Here, in no particular order, is a brief synopsis of the players that caught our eye.
Noah Cardenas - DH. The question we kept asking ourselves was “Why is this guy here?” Not that we thought Cardenas was overmatched, but rather why he was still in High A. Normally a catcher, Cardenas was DHing this day, and if I remember correctly, he went 3 for 3. Batting prowess: in the later innings the opposing team brought in a pitcher with an exaggerated overhand motion (the ball seemed to come out of his hand above his head) which baffled a couple Kernel batters. Then Cardenas stepped up to the plate and calmly rifled a single into right field; easy peasy. Best comparison: Arraez.  Pre-game stats: 3 hr  .283 ave 16 dbl .803 OPS
Not sure how well Cardenas does defensively as a catcher (has also played 1st base) since he was DHing, but this kid is going to be a major league hitter even if they have to find him a spot on the grounds crew.
Andrew Cossetti - Catcher-  Cossetti is built like the typical catcher but has surprising speed on the base paths. We saw him go 1st to 3rd on what you’d expect to be an advance to 2nd on a single to RC. In fact I was following the ball, expecting to see Cossetti standing on 2nd when the throw finally came in, only to be stunned to find him standing on 3rd. My son and I exchanged a wide-eyed look of amazement: a catcher with wheels? Good receiver behind the plate. Seems to know how to handle pitchers. Got a “presence” on the field. The only negative, if there was one, he short-hopped a throw to 2nd on a steal attempt. Saw him do the same thing several times on the last throw to second in pre-inning warm-ups. Also he might have lost a high foul ball behind the plate, Ross charged in from 3rd to get it, but that might’ve been one of those “sun-in-the-eyes” things. Whatever. We think this guy’s got a future behind the plate. Power hitter more than a spray hitter like Cardenas, 10 hr, 19 dbl .297 ave .981 OPS.
Can’t imagine how the Kernels are getting enough playing time behind the plate for both Cossetti and Cardenas.
Noah Miller - Shortstop.  This young man took our breath away on two different plays. He’s fast, rattlesnake quick, got a good glove, excellent range and a cannon for an arm. He was deep in the hole when one of those broken bat hits dribbled past the pitcher… thought for sure it was going to be a cheap infield hit when all of sudden Miller appears on the infield grass, snags the ball and guns it over to first in time to nail the runner by a stride. Later a hot grounder just got past an extended Ross at 3rd, again looking like a sure hit, when Miller swooped in from nowhere, nabbed the ball at the edge of the outfield grass and fired a bullet to first that nailed the runner. My old timers first comparison reaction: Greg Gagne. And like Gagne, Miller isn’t much of a hitter. 5 hrs 9 doubles.  .208 Ave.  .588 OPS But you don’t have to hit .300 to play short in the Majors. Just ask Correa.
Ben Ross - 3rd base. Excellent range, good glove, another cannon arm, hit the walk-off single that won the game. This prospect has played every position (mostly 1st and 3rd) except catcher and we watched him play a very good 3rd base this day. An excellent athlete, obviously, but from what we saw today 3rd base just might become his permanent home. With him at 3rd and Miller at shortstop nothing will ever get through the left side of the infield. And he has power. 14 hr, 19 dbls .255 ave.,  .778 OPS.
Kala’i Rosario - RF. Explosive contact! Before the game began my son told me the ball explodes off Rosario’s bat, has this different angry whack sound. First time at bat Rosario smoked a line drive to center field that if a few feet lower would’ve decapitated the center fielder. As it was it screamed over the center fielder’s head (already playing deep) and whacked into the wall like an anti-tank rocket. This kid’s got power! 13 hr, 20 dbls,   .271 ave.   .862 OPS. Oh, and he’s got an arm, too. A cut-off man’s wasted on this guy.
Emmanuel Rodriguez  - CF. Speedy - covers a lot of ground. Good arm. Kind of reminds you of a younger Buxton. Defensively that is. Got some pop, too. 6 dbls, 11 hrs, .228 Ave .827 OPS
All in all, an entertaining trip, saw some good baseball and we agreed to make Cedar Rapids an annual outing. Maybe extend the trip to follow the Kernels to Beloit; baseball roadies.
 
 

I was looking at individual players on the team when I noticed a trend.  Correa who is having a terrible year by our standards is actually walking and hitting the same power numbers as years past.  but his batting average is way down.  last season he hit .291 This year he is at .217 and his average has been climbing.  If Correa was hitting closer to his career norms, say .270 what would his OPS be?  It would be over .800
So I looked at the next punching bag.  Gallo.  He is also having a good walk rate and extra base hit rate for the season but he was successful with a .230 batting average.  He just got his average up to .191 so he still needs to get his average up 35-40 points.  What would that do to his OPS?  It would be over .850 
Lets keep going.  Kepler has a higher ISO slg % then batting average.  in his best season Kepler hit .252.  If he was hitting closer to that say .240 his OPS would be close to .800 
If you look at the batting average of those who are having good years on the team.  over 100 OPS+ only Buxton and Gallo have below a .250 batting average.  
Now lets compare to other teams.  
The Yankees have the most similar lineup to us.  They have a similar team batting average, similar power, and similar walk rate.  We are 10th in the league in scoring they are 11th.  so obviously this type of lineup construction doesn't work.  not here or in New York.  
Who are the top 2 offenses.  the teams with the top 2 team batting averages.  The Rangers and Rays.  
I have more boring data that continues to show this over and over.  Maybe getting base hits is more important to scoring runs than originally thought.  

On MLB regional blackouts

In looking at the 2023 schedule a bit closer, the Twins schedule in April may be the most important month of the year. Not only, as it is every year, will it be important to get off to a good start, the schedule has some tough matchups, and, what should be, very winnable series as well. 
Here is a breakdown of the first month of the season: 
3 @ Kansas City Royals
3 @ Miami Marlins
3 vs Houston Astros
3 vs Chicago White Sox
4 @ New York Yankees
3 @ Boston Red Sox 
3 vs Washington Nationals 
3 vs New York Yankees 
4 vs Kansas City Royals 
 
I first wanted to look at the head to head record against these teams this past year. The Twins had a combined record of 28-30 against these opponents. They did not play against either Miami or Washington in the 2022 season. So against the other 6 teams, they had a losing record. While this might not be a great sign, if you take the Astros and Yankees out as well, the combined record is 26-19. 
So, as I mentioned, getting off to a strong start is important in wanting to win the division and make the playoffs. It appears the Twins are capable of finishing April above .500, but they will need to play well to do so. If they play as poorly against the Yankees and Astros as they did in 2022, they will have to be almost flawless against the other teams during the month, which is not a great recipe for success. 
Now let's break down what the Twins need to do to have a successful first month of the season this coming year: 
3 @ Kansas City: The Twins record against the Royals in 2022 was 12-7. This is the type of record they will need to have this coming year if they want to win the division again. It's hard to sweep a 3 game series, so a good start to the season would be winning 2 out of 3 in Kansas City. 
Record: 2-1 
3 @ Miami: The Miami Marlins went 69-93 this past season, but have improved in some areas as well (see Arraez, Luis). While the Marlins are an interesting team and have a pretty solid rotation going forward, they will likely be having their 4/5/1 starters going in this series. A 2-1 record feels realistic in this scenario. 
Record: 4-2 
3 vs Houston: Man, did the Twins play horrible against the Astros in 2022. In the 6 matchups, the Twins were outscored 11-36. The later matchups were closer, but they still lost all of them. The Astros are one of the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series in 2023. I would like to believe the Twins will play better against the Astros this year, especially in their first series at home, but it's not a given. I will say it would be great if they went 2-1, but would expect a 1-2 record instead. 
Record: 5-4
3 vs Chicago: The Twins and White Sox were pretty evenly matched throughout the year, with the Twins winning the season series 10-9. Both teams are hoping (and probably expecting) improvement from last year, but if the Twins can continue to have success versus Chicago and win 2 out of 3 in this series, they will finish the first homestand 3-3. This isn't ideal, but not bad given the matchups of Houston and Chicago to start it. 
Record: 7-5
4 @ New York: If you have been mildly paying attention to baseball for the past 20 years or so, you have probably noticed the Twins record is abysmal when playing in New York, or heck, playing against the Yankees anywhere. Maybe they should try playing on the moon or something? Anyways, the Twins have had very little success in New York since I can even remember, but going 2-2 on the road in New York would be a pretty solid matchup. Because it appears the Twins may be cursed when it comes to the Yankees, I am tempering my expectations and say they can go 1-3 in New York and still have a successful first month. 
Record: 8-7
3 @ Boston: The Red Sox are an interesting team in the sense that they have let moved on from stars, such as Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, but have retained Rafael Devers going forward. They also signed Mastaka Yoshida, who I am excited to see transition to MLB and I think could be a pretty solid addition going forward. While I don't think they should have traded a generational talent in Betts, they deemed it the right move. Because the Red Sox are in a weird flux position and I'm not convinced they have improved enough to stay competitive, I will say the Twins are capable and need to win 2 out of 3 games in Boston to start off successfully in 2023. 
Record: 10-8
3 vs Washington: While the Red Sox moved on from Betts, the Nationals moved on from Juan Soto, who has received comparisons to Ted Williams. Soto is now in San Diego, and the Nationals are in a free fall from their championship in 2019. The Nationals went 55-107 last year and while their young guys are improving, it's not clear they will be a competitive team this coming season. Winning 2 out of 3 versus Washington will be key to the first month of the year. 
Record: 12-9
3 vs New York: It feels realistic to think the Twins could be 12-9 at this point, and facing New York will be another tough test, about 10 days after they played them first. After winning 2 out of 3 against both Boston and Washington, I would hope the Twins come in with some confidence and play well. To have a successful first month, the Twins will need to either split the 4 games in New York and/or win 2 out of 3 in this series a week and a half later. I will say they have to win 2 out of 3 to not have people wondering too much if they are for real or not. 
Record: 14-10
4 vs Kansas City: The Twins finish the month off versus the lowly Royals, who happen to always give the Twins a tough matchup it seems. 4 games series are always a little weird and it seems like the Twins always go 2-2 in those matchups, I think the Twins are capable of winning 3 out of 4 against the Royals, but I will say they only need to win 2 out of 4 with where they are at to have the first month be deemed a success. 
Record: 16-12
 
While a 16-12 record doesn't mean it would be a resounding success, with a total of 10 of those games being against the Yankees and Astros, this record would not be the worst possible outcome. While I think they could win 2 out of 4 in New York, or even win the Astros series, I think it's hard to say they will definitively do either of those things. While it's possible to not play well against the Yankees and Astros and still finish the month off with a winning record, it's not something Twins fans would feel great about if they get dominated by those teams that are considered favorites in the American League. (Note: This has the Twins going 4-6 against these two teams). Now that I see that, going 5-5 in those matchups could be a decent outcome. 
 
I am pretty confident that if the Twins finish the first month 16-12, or even 15-13, or better, they will be set up to succeed going into the dog days of summer. One thing I think that will be interesting is that they will play every team in the league this year, which means less games against their AL Central foes. The Twins went 39-37 versus the division last year, which they will need to be better than that to win the division, without a doubt. I would like to believe they will be better against Cleveland than they were in 2022 (6-13). 
 
Let me know in the comments if you think this is realistic in your eyes, or if you think I am too high or too low on the level of success the Twins need to have in the first month of the season. 

As stated in the above title, I have undertaken this semi-scientific study for two reasons; both inadequate. Number One: as an experiment on publishing a chart on TD without losing the format I painstakingly created, and Number Two - no, not that number two, although a comparison could be made - as yet another way to kick around a few numbers, calculations, and problematic propositions in order to stave off complete insanity as the plunging thermometer frosts all windows, bars all doors and somehow mysteriously drains all liquor cabinets. Unless of course one had the perspicacity to adequately prepare for the end of the world.
Justification... uh, justified, allow me to explain my line of thought, or as we like to say in the middle of January, catch my drift. A little winter humor there.
Runs, you see, (no, not the runs that often originate from over imbibing, but the runs scored, or not, on the baseball diamond) determine winners and losers. You score more runs than the other guys you win. It therefore behooves (always like to use that word - sounds kind of... horsey) a manager to construct his lineup so as to maximize run-scoring opportunities. Now in the old days, I know, that's so last century, you constructed your lineup so batters that had a knack for getting on base batted before guys who had a knack for driving in said on-base guys. Sounds like your Aunt Helen; simple, but in truth (which if you can believe my wife, I often tend to stray from; "Yes dear, this is only my second drink") it is not as simple as it sounds. At least until I undertook this analysis.
I have therefore attached a chart depicting the Twins top-ten RBI generators from the 2022 Fade Away Season. You will probably astutely note that the Top Ten RBI Chart only lists seven players. That is a deliberate "mistake". Since three of those Top Ten RBI guys from '22, like our chances of making the playoffs last year, have faded away and therefore are of little value in contriving 2023 batting line-ups, I have excluded them.
The chart ranks the players by RBI; mostest on the topest, leastest on the bottomest, the latter not to be confused with bottomless, as in the depths Minnesota sports teams have plummeted.
Column headings, I believe, should be self-explanatory except for the last; "RBI/ManOB%". I'm sure there's a stat somewhere that better categorizes this but basically it shows the percentage of RBI's delivered with runners on base without hitting a homerun. I debated naming it "Clutch Hit" but that would've been too easy. I know, I know, there's all sorts of factors that could go into these calculations but I'll leave that to the stat guys who either have more or less time to waste than I do and can better define it.
Suffice it to say, according to my chart Miranda is "Mr. Clutch" as he is most likely to drive in a run with men on base. Polanco comes in 2nd and Gordon is 3rd "clutchiest".
Surprisingly, Buxton comes in dead last. Though I would suspect that batting 1st or 2nd in the lineup, nobody on, and hitting a homerun accounts for that. But Jeffers coming in higher than Kepler and Correa? Holy Balls, Batman!
Anyway, looking at the chart, how would you organize these seven in a lineup to maximize scoring opportunities?
 
Quiz on Friday
 
 

Who cares. A common phrase I hear more and more often. Did you hear about the Carlos Correa fiasco? Who cares. Do you think Dansby Swanson is worth the money and years he received? Who cares. Did you see the new rules for this year? Who cares. This feeling of apathy loomed over most of the conversations I tried to have about baseball while home for the holidays, and when I was done sipping eggnog out of frustration, I came back to Iowa for some more of the same. To them, the upcoming ‘who gives a damn’ bowl that the Hawkeyes were playing in was far more interesting than the insane contracts being thrown about like money was going out of style (I’m talking to you Steve Cohen). The more time I spend trying to talk baseball with those that aren’t as into it as myself, a truth harder than the plate in Carlos Correa’s leg becomes obvious to me. Baseball is failing to market itself properly to gain interest from both the average fan and potential young fans alike. There is no singular solution and I certainly don’t have all the answers. However, the lack of visibility for its star players, fun-killing unwritten rules, and media blackouts are all core issues that are eating away at the popularity of the sport.
Similar to the ‘who cares’ response I receive from folks a lot is the even simpler, ‘who?’ My mother-in-law, who is about as far from a sports fan as you can be and is from Texas, mentioned the huge contract that Dak Prescott signed with the Cowboys. I tried pulling the conversation towards baseball and followed up with the Aaron Judge contract and the insane amount of money and years dropped into the lap of a player already in his 30s. I expected her response to be related to the amount of money we pay to professional athletes, instead she said, “who?” That’s a problem MLB. Your star players need to be recognizable to the average person and need to be highlighted and promoted as such. Everyone knows who Lebron James or Tom Brady is, but not too many people outside of us baseball fans know who Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis (I know…), or Bryce Harper are.
I think part of the issue is that there are unwritten rules in baseball that don’t allow its star players to show off their personality and become icons and known to the general public. The best example I can think of happened to Fernando Tatis (again, I know…) in 2021 I believe. The Padres were up big and the bases were loaded. It was 3-0 and Tatis got an absolute meatball and hit an epic blast. Four more runs. Afterwards, the cameras showed Tatis in the dugout getting chewed out for swinging 3-0 when his team was up big. He later apologized. APOLOGIZED. This infuriated me. One, why shouldn’t he swing? Two, he gets paid based on performance. Three, it gets his team a larger cushion. Lastly, home runs are awesome and incredibly difficult to hit. Honestly, the odds are he would have gotten himself out (pace of play, you’re welcome). Not only that, but now you have taken one of the young and amazing talents in your sport, whom you wish to be one of the faces of the league (really, again, I know…) and reprimanded him for doing something exciting and scoring four runs for his team. Absolutely absurd. In contrast, the NFL lets Justin Jefferson do the griddy every time he scores and really show off his personality. Baseball needs to start promoting their players better and do the same. Bat flips to the sky and pitchers screaming their heads off after a 3rd out strikeout? Yes, please.
Even if those unwritten rules erode, players become known, and fans are ready to put their butts in seats and couches to see it, there is the final issue… REGIONAL BLACKOUTS. This might be the most egregious offense of all. To watch an MLB game, you must do one of three things. One, purchase cable in your region and spend well over 100 dollars on channels you don’t need or care about. Two, purchase MLB TV and hope you aren’t located in a market for whomever you are trying to watch (Iowa blocks Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals and Cardinals by the way). Three, pay a king’s ransom in purchasing a ticket, food, parking, etc. to attend a game in person. This option is becoming insanely expensive when it does not need to be. MLB makes the bulk of its money off media rights (hence the regional black outs forcing the purchasing of cable) and attendance becomes less important each year. In fact, attendance has dropped every year since 2012, but revenue has been steady. With inflation, attending a game as a family of four is becoming almost impossible, which means fans need to be able to watch on TV. This however, is incredibly difficult and expensive as well. I think the solution could be moving on from the regional markets and leaning into a streaming service with no blackouts. This would involve having different priced packages for how many teams you want to follow or if you want ads or not. There could be single, 10, 20, and 30 team packages.
By moving away from some of the unwritten rules that dampen a player’s personality, more stars worth watching will begin to emerge. If MLB can combine that with making the game easier to access and view, the youth will be drawn in by these exciting and vibrant players. This will result in kids becoming engaged with baseball at a young age and hopefully herald in a new age of baseball popularity. MLB needs to make the first move however, and I don’t see them moving on from the regional sports networks that have been an absolute cash cow for them.

The Minnesota Twins have recently re-signed Carlos Correa if you have yet to hear. Re-sparked trade rumors surrounding Max Kepler and Luis Arraez are swirling. I understand packaging these two players to acquire a high-end starting pitcher. I would have to be mesmerized by a deal to trade Arraez. His abilities and skillset are too unique.
Here are the top 10 comparisons on baseball-reference.com and when they played Major League Baseball.
Fred Tenney (1894 – 1909 and 1911)
Jo-Jo Moore (1930 – 1941)
Roger Bresnahan (1897 and 1900 – 1915)
Ethan Allen (1926 – 1938)
Arnold Statz (1919 – 1928)
Sam West (1927 – 1942)
Tony Gwynn (1982 – 2001)
Jim O'Rourke (1872 – 1893)
Gene Robertson (1919 – 1930)
Rich Rollins (1961 – 1970)
Of the ten players listed, three are Hall of Famers, and one, Tony Gwynn, is considered by many to be one of the purest hitters of the 1980s and 1990s.
Let's also notice each of these player comparisons eras. Some, like Jim O'Rourke, played in the Pre-1900 era when overhand pitching became legalized in 1872. The rules we understand today were absent when Jim O'Rouke played. 
Others like Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan played in the Dead Ball Era between 1901-1920, when spitballs were allowed, and they used one ball per game. Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan probably could not even see the ball after their first at-bat.
Players like Jo-Jo Moore, Ethan Allen, Arnold Statz, Sam West, and Gene Robertson played in the Live Ball Era, which began in the 1920s and saw an increase in home runs and changes in the baseball ball used. 
Rich Rollins played in the Expansion Era when the number of teams in MLB expanded from 16 to 24.
And then there is Tony Gwynn. Compare Tony Gwynns and Luis Arraez through their age-25 season.
Luis Arraez: 

 
Tony Gwynn: 

If Luis Arraez has more plate appearances, he is right with Tony Gwynn for hits. Tony Gwynn had 559 hits in 1889 plate appearances. Arraez checks in with 444 hits in 1569 place appearances. 
When comparing Arraez to these players, it's clear that there's something very unique about him. Is he a unicorn in the modern game, and we have not seen a hitter like him not named Tony Gwynn since nearly the turn of the century? 
Is his skill set not well suited for the modern game, and he won't be able to sustain being the same player in the future? In other words, is his value at its all-time high?
Wouldn't it be fun to find out exactly what we are seeing? Is it Tony Gwynn 2.0 or Rich Rollings 2.0? Like everything in life, it's probably somewhere in between, but I want to watch it play out in a Twins uniform.

Okay, so the Twins have "Farmed" out shortstop. Unless of course the FO goal is to quickly swap Farmer for two PTBNL, a broken down reliever and a partridge in a pear tree. Anyway, I asked Daddy Warbucks to give us a quick assessment of the financial impact of swapping the two shortstops.
Stats (2022)
Player       Salary     WAR     HR     Ave (Maria?)     RibEyes       OPS      Cost per WAR     Cost Per RBI
Correa      $35 mill    5.4      22        .291                     64            .834       $7 million           $546,875
Farmer     $3  mill     1.0       14         .255                    78            .701        $3 million           $   38,461
 
If you're the Twins accountant (or the Run Creator Coordinator), who's your Daddy?

Shortstop Angst

According to Team Rankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/double-plays-per-game) the Twins ranked 23 out of 30 teams in double plays per game with an average of .73. Pre-Correa (2021) the Twins averaged .85 per game. Twins finish in the division? 3rd in 2022, 5th in 2021.
Number One on the list, St. Louis at 1.11 per game.
Last on the List? NY Yankees at .65.
Which of the three teams made it to the play-offs? Cards and Yankees. Ponder that.
Fielding https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-fielding-leaders.shtml
Double Plays Turned at SS 2022
1. Mateo Baltimore 91
2. Seager Texas 91
3. Perdomo Arizona 83
4. Lindor NYM 82    
5. Bogaerts Boston 78
21. Correa 51
Putouts at SS 2022
1. Lindor 198
2. Swanson Atlanta 193
3. Baez Detroit 187
4. Rojas Miami 184
5. Mateo 181
15. Correa 157
Assists at SS 2022
1. Mateo 417
2. Seager 407
3. Bogaerts 401
4. Swanson 391
5. Lindor 385
19. Correa 307
Games at SS
1. Swanson 161
2. Turner LA 160
3. Lindor 159
4. Bichette Toronto 157
5. Mateo 149
18. Correa 132
Shortstop Salaries (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/shortstop/)
1. Correa $35,100,000
2. Lindor $34,100,000
3. Seager $33,000,000
4. Turner $21,000,000
5. Bogaerts $20,000,000
5. Baez $20,000,000
8. Swanson $10,000,000
15. Rojas $5,500,000
28. Bichette $825,000
32. Mateo $709,500
38. Perdomo $701,300
How badly do we need Correa?
 

Just popped in to check play-off results and discovered starting pitchers are going seven innings on three-days rest. Somebody step in and stop this cruelty or somebody is going to get hurt!

Just popped in to check play-off results and discovered starting pitchers are going seven innings on three-days rest. Somebody step in and stop this cruelty or somebody is going to get hurt!

Just popped in to check play-off results and discovered starting pitchers are going seven innings on three-days rest. Somebody step in and stop this cruelty or somebody is going to get hurt!

Just popped in to check play-off results and discovered starting pitchers are going seven innings on three-days rest. Somebody step in and stop this cruelty or somebody is going to get hurt!

Just popped in to check play-off results and discovered starting pitchers are going seven innings on three-days rest. Somebody step in and stop this cruelty or somebody is going to get hurt!

Just popped in to check play-off results and discovered starting pitchers are going seven innings on three-days rest. Somebody step in and stop this cruelty or somebody is going to get hurt!

He's not a downward plane kinda pitcher, more like Cole Sands in that his whole delivery seems to happen down low. Louie Varland looks legit to me. When I saw his compact delivery, it reminded me a little of Bartolo Colon, who looked like a converted catcher. The tight snap from behind the ear, no big, loopy wind-up, is a style that works well for some good pitchers, like Grienke. The quick delivery and up-tempo pace will help him surprise some hitters, who are accustomed to a more relaxed pace. Less time between pitches means less time for the hitter to process the pitching sequence and predict the next one. That and the compact delivery also means less time for a runner to read the pitcher's move to home...or not. 
One thing that really impressed me was his K of Judge in the first. Got him with a beautiful diving change that caught the inside corner. He could throw a dozen of those to Judge, and I bet the guy still couldn't straighten that one out. Especially if he also can zip a heater high in the zone just previous. Point is, it looks to me like Varland can do just that. His command of several pitches is better than Joe Ryan's, not counting Ryan's heater, which is his one great pitch. Varland doesn't appear to have one great pitch, but he's got several very good ones, which bodes well. 
If his arm doesn't fall off, keep this young stud in the rotation. Twins have found themselves another good young pitcher. 

The word down at Ichabod Crane’s Pub and Pablum: Head Cases Welcome is that Sano is to be traded to the San Diego Padres for four DisneyLand tickets, a 12-pack of 2019 Homerun Baseballs to be used only in the bottom of the 9th when the Twins are trailing and a Player To Be Named Much Later. In exchange the Twins will pick up Sano’s remaining 2022 salary in full, throw in a week’s stay at Madden’s Resort, a signed copy of “The Prospect” (in case it rains while staying at Madden’s) and a 12-pack of Grain Belt; whether it rains or not.

The local chapter of Sabermetrics is reportedly bummed out by the deal as they will no longer be able to measure Sano’s long balls… Wait, let me rephrase that, they’ll no longer be able to measure the distance of Sano’s moon shots, which played an asymmetric role in calculating the Sano Whiff Wind Rate, which in turn was used by Xcel Power to calculate the potential megawatts created by their wind generators in western Minnesota that is usually handicapped by the reverse breeze generated by South Dakota’s natural suckiness.

Ichabod’s chief bartender, Four-Finger Frank (so named for an accidental brush with a blender of Bloody Mary’s - lending truth to the nomenclature) said his regular patrons accepted the news with aplomb, which is slightly less explosive than a bomb, and a round of celebratory drinks was quickly ordered, the tab eventually provoking an argument as to who placed the order, said dispute later settled by a dart tournament that left only two customers not wounded and who agreed to split the tab rather than risk a hole-in-one.

The word down at Ichabod Crane’s Pub and Pablum: Head Cases Welcome is that Sano is to be traded to the San Diego Padres for four DisneyLand tickets, a 12-pack of 2019 Homerun Baseballs to be used only in the bottom of the 9th when the Twins are trailing and a Player To Be Named Much Later. In exchange the Twins will pick up Sano’s remaining 2022 salary in full, throw in a week’s stay at Madden’s Resort, a signed copy of “The Prospect” (in case it rains while staying at Madden’s) and a 12-pack of Grain Belt; whether it rains or not.

The local chapter of Sabermetrics is reportedly bummed out by the deal as they will no longer be able to measure Sano’s long balls… Wait, let me rephrase that, they’ll no longer be able to measure the distance of Sano’s moon shots, which played an asymmetric role in calculating the Sano Whiff Wind Rate, which in turn was used by Xcel Power to calculate the potential megawatts created by their wind generators in western Minnesota that is usually handicapped by the reverse breeze generated by South Dakota’s natural suckiness.

Ichabod’s chief bartender, Four-Finger Frank (so named for an accidental brush with a blender of Bloody Mary’s - lending truth to the nomenclature) said his regular patrons accepted the news with aplomb, which is slightly less explosive than a bomb, and a round of celebratory drinks was quickly ordered, the tab eventually provoking an argument as to who placed the order, said dispute later settled by a dart tournament that left only two customers not wounded and who agreed to split the tab rather than risk a hole-in-one.

The word down at Ichabod Crane’s Pub and Pablum: Head Cases Welcome is that Sano is to be traded to the San Diego Padres for four DisneyLand tickets, a 12-pack of 2019 Homerun Baseballs to be used only in the bottom of the 9th when the Twins are trailing and a Player To Be Named Much Later. In exchange the Twins will pick up Sano’s remaining 2022 salary in full, throw in a week’s stay at Madden’s Resort, a signed copy of “The Prospect” (in case it rains while staying at Madden’s) and a 12-pack of Grain Belt; whether it rains or not.

The local chapter of Sabermetrics is reportedly bummed out by the deal as they will no longer be able to measure Sano’s long balls… Wait, let me rephrase that, they’ll no longer be able to measure the distance of Sano’s moon shots, which played an asymmetric role in calculating the Sano Whiff Wind Rate, which in turn was used by Xcel Power to calculate the potential megawatts created by their wind generators in western Minnesota that is usually handicapped by the reverse breeze generated by South Dakota’s natural suckiness.

Ichabod’s chief bartender, Four-Finger Frank (so named for an accidental brush with a blender of Bloody Mary’s - lending truth to the nomenclature) said his regular patrons accepted the news with aplomb, which is slightly less explosive than a bomb, and a round of celebratory drinks was quickly ordered, the tab eventually provoking an argument as to who placed the order, said dispute later settled by a dart tournament that left only two customers not wounded and who agreed to split the tab rather than risk a hole-in-one.

You're the manager, you've run about 20 reports off your computer, had three statisticians, a data geek and a borrowed nun from St. Francis explain esoteric stuff that went right over your head and had you daydreaming like Goldie Hawn and you've now retreated to your manager's office and are debating about throwing darts at the player's roster, wondering who you're going to start at 1st Base. But Fast Frankie, the team's towel guy, has stuck a purple post-it note on your desk that you can't avoid:
Arraez   .346   .420   .499   .869
Miranda  .260   .299   .463   .762
Kirilloff   .269   .319   .407   .726
Sano   .093   . 231   .148   .379
And you wonder why Fast Frankie wants you to know the players' locker combinations.
Who would you start at 1st?