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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    Brett Gardner He's cheap and he fits this roster perfectly. He adds speed and patience to the lineup. He is more than capable of backing up CF. To start the season, he keeps LF warm. He is an average LF until Larnach or someone else proves ready for the every day job.
  2. Minny505
    I still don't understand the LF situation. Kirilloff is fine in LF, but he is amazing at 1B and Sano is atrocious at 1B. The gap in defensive value is worth 3-4 wins on it's own. The gap from Kirilloff to just about anyone else playing LF, probably even Sano himself, is not that large. I'm still hoping for a Brett Gardner signing. He fits so well on this roster. He can start the season as the strong platoon in LF, then transition to the CF capable backup OF once Larnach, Rooker, or Celestino, prove ready for a shot.
  3. Minny505
    This is the Sano crux. I want him batting 4 or 5 in this lineup, but I would rather it be as the DH. His defense gives back about 100% of his impressive offensive production.
  4. Minny505
    I'm really surprised at how much people under-rate Sano around here. I know he has not lived up to hopes and dreams, but he's still a really good hitter. He's comfortably the 4th or 5th best in wRC+ for the last few years amongst the veterans. He's projected at roughly a 114 wRC+ in 2022, pending on your flavor of system. That trails only Buxton, Polanco, and Correa in projections. He should be the 4 or 5 batter on opening day, especially being that they will be facing a LHP. Kepler, Sanchez, Urshela, Jeffers...you gotta be high, drunk, spun, something, to think they should be batting higher than Sano. Thank god Baldelli is sober when he's writing out the lineup because the proposals I'm seeing here would make me question what the team is doing.
  5. Minny505
  6. Minny505
    A signing of Brent Gardner would ensure solid defense in CF should Buxton go down. Tim Beckham should be reliable at SS if Correa is out.
  7. Minny505
    Maybe a $2mil contract to Brent Gardner (you know, get the band back together?) in LF is the best answer to start the season. Then the Twins have a passable backup CF on the roster as well.
  8. Minny505
    You are right about Miranda and LF, but he wouldn't be the first rookie in MLB history, nor the only one in the 2022 MLB season, to be get pushed into a COF spot to get his bat into the lineup. Arraez played roughly 18% of his MLB games in LF his rookie season despite (judging by Fangraphs history) not ever playing the OF in the minors. He wasn't great out there, but he was not as much of a negative as Sano looks to be at 1B. It's a matter of what gives the team the best net run value. Hopefully Sano makes it a non-concern. If not, I'd like a quick leash on Sanchez being the primary DH, using some combination of Rooker, Miranda, and Kirilloff, manning LF and 1B. Either Sano or Larnach (if he's even still in the org) can make this a moot point quickly.
  9. Minny505
    I don't know if the defensive trade-off to have Sano at 1B is worth it. Based on last years numbers, extrapolated out over 150 games played at 1B, has Kirilloff worth 1-4 WAR more than Sano on defense, depending on your metric of choice. I think the offensive downgrade going from Sanchez or Rooker in the lineup (at DH, with Sano at 1B) vs Gordon or Miranda in the lineup (in LF, with Kirilloff at 1B) could be worth it for the improved defense. I'm all for giving Sano a chance to prove he can play 1B, but my leash is short if he does not improve.
  10. Minny505
    It's so much more quiet and controlled looking. Love little updates like this. He does look like he is still dropping his hands a bit before moving them to attack the ball, instead of moving them straight to attacking the ball from the load position. Still, a marked improvement and I expect that the twins staff is working on cleaning that up further.
  11. Minny505
    Fangraphs now has them at 80. I'd split the difference. In @John Bonnes, "gun to my head" fashion, I'll take the under on 84, but I'm not putting money on it. There are much better over/under bets on the table that you don't have to lay money on a such a narrow margin as PECOTA offers. Now, the Yankees under 98 and the Red Sox over 83, those are good bets. And the annual Angels under is looking strong once again. The Tigers over looks good too. PECOTA doesn't seem to have any glaring misses in the NL from a quick glance. Maybe an over on the Giants?
  12. Minny505
    Preaching to the choir over here. Who do you think would have a better OPS in 2022 in a Twins uniform: Story or Polanco? It's close and I'm putting my money on Story in that wager.
  13. Minny505
    (1)If the Twins do sign Story, I've been thinking about the possibility of trading for David Price with the Dodgers. I suspect Sano would get the deal done as they need a DH and we could probably get the Dodgers to eat $8mil of that contract making it a salary neutral swap for both teams. Both squads would get something of need out of it, with Price becoming the 2 or 3 pitcher in the current Twins rotation, depending on your view of Joe Ryan. Sano is now the 4/5 batter in the Dodgers lineup and the everyday DH. If the Dodgers sign Freeman, this trade is off the table. (2)Twins don't sign Story, but instead trade for David Price and Gavin Lux, offering up Trevor Larnach. Lux is then the SS, but is less entrenched at the position than Story would be if the Twins want the option to use Lewis there. Thoughts?
  14. Minny505
    @Cody Christie, let's not equate the batting value of Sano and Sanchez. They are the same age and have similar batting profiles, but Sano is a superior hitter. Sanchez is a good hitter for a catcher. Sano is a good hitter. Over the the past three seasons, eyeballing the wRC+ of each comes to about a 105 for Sanchez and a 120 for Sano. I want Sano starting at 162 games at DH if the choice is between the two and they are both healthy and rested. From a projection standpoint, Gary Sanchez profiles as nearly identical to Brent Rooker. Like I said, Sanchez is a good hitter for a catcher, but as a DH, he's a more expensive version of Rooker...and I don't think anyone here at Twins Daily prefers Rooker over Sano at DH.
  15. Minny505
    Yankees and Phillies seem out due to payroll now. Astros seem locked on Correa reunion. Sentiment regarding the Angels is that they are not spending big on anything right now, and if they do, it will be pitching. That leaves a Red Sox team that likely views Story as more of a luxury than a necessity. Seems the Twins are in the driver's seat. Story deserves a better contract than Marcus Semien and may not even ink a Javier Baez-level deal. Twins could look like geniuses for waiting out the SS market when this is all finished.
  16. Minny505
    You left out thinking that Matt Wisler, Zack Littel, and Nick Anderson were all fungible and releasing them.
  17. Minny505
    Right there with you. Story is currently projected by every projection system to be as valuable on the field as Jorge Polanco. I would take that bet on Story topping Polanco in WAR if each of them have a healthy season. And with Correa seemingly headed back to the Astros, the Yankees having their solution, and the Angels and Phillies indicating they are looking to spend elsewhere, it's down to the Twins and a marginally interested Red Sox front office. He can probably be had on a contract that will age very well at this point, unless the Red Sox get serious. Story is an upgrade over Bogarts at SS, with Bogarts going to 2B, but their payroll is already over their 2021 payroll. I suspect they sign Jonathan Villar for 5mil or so and take that to the trade deadline to maintain flexibility to take on salary then when needs become more clear.
  18. Minny505
    I guess I'm going to make it my mission on Twins Daily to put this Rockies home/road splits concern to rest. I thought they were already, but seems not. Take ten minutes to read these three articles. You'll see that, on average, hitter get better after leaving the Rockies, not worse. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rockies-have-their-worst-coors-field-hangover-yet/ https://www.draysbay.com/2016/1/29/10868328/coors-field-hitters-corey-dickerson-analysis http://mets360.com/?p=41757 Story has produced equal WAR to Seager and Correa over almost any period since 2016, but can be had at nearly half the price due to being two years older. He's a steal. I's try to go as short as possible with him, but would do up to 6 years if that is what it took.
  19. Minny505
    Good singular data point using a player that hangs it up after one year ? Try these out: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rockies-have-their-worst-coors-field-hangover-yet/ https://www.draysbay.com/2016/1/29/10868328/coors-field-hitters-corey-dickerson-analysis http://mets360.com/?p=41757 Now, after reading thru these studies again, I'm even more bullish. The post-Rockies career average improvement is pretty awesome. Let's get him!!
  20. Minny505
    Why are you concerned about home/road splits? The same has been said by fans for pretty much every hitter that left Coors over the last 15 years, while those hitters went on to produced at essentially the same level, with more players producing at a higher level than a lower level, post-Rockies career. I really thought this Coors splits concern voiced by fans was put to bed about 5 years ago with all the studies that have come out debunking it. It's evident that front offices have.
  21. Minny505
    Go take a look at the leaderboard on Fangraphs or B-Ref for SS since 2016. Try it since 2017. Since 2018. Since 2019. He has essentially matched Correa and Seager in WAR for any of those cumulative time periods. The only reason he is not valued as highly this offseason is that he is older than both by roughly 2 years. That said, Story is worth nearly the same AAV as those guys, but should get a pact that is a 2-3 years less. If he can be had for something like 150/6, that is a steal compared to those other SS who will sign for much more while bringing only slightly more value.
  22. Minny505
    FWIW, over on MLBTR, the response to the two trades break down like this: Garver for IKF = 65%ish say Rangers got the better side of that deal. Petty for Gray = 99%ish say Twins got a steal. The worst comments say it is a fair deal.
  23. Minny505
    This pretty much sums up why I like this trade > https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/06/06/mlb-draft-high-school-pitchers-velocity I put the over/under career WAR for Chase Petty at 2.5. It's possible that, with the advanced metrics on all kinds of body movement, first round high school pitchers, especially those who throw hard, have a higher boom rate than they did a decade ago. I'm willing to take that gamble.
  24. Minny505
    I have to say, I loved the idea of a single elimination tournament for draft order seeding for teams that did not make the real playoffs. Would have loved that! Maybe in the next CBA?
  25. Minny505
    Dandy Robnak (I'd like to submit that in the greatest name spoonerism in MLB tournament) seems like the most obvious rebound candidate in a Twins uniform. Even with that awful 2021 skewing his career numbers, just pitching to his careers numbers would make him a solid #3. Even if he tops out at a #4, that's a great rebound from 2021...though still a disappointment.
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