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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    People are going to think Brandon Winokur is from Minneapolis Edison.
  2. twinstalker
    Somebody had to say "stop the madness." Falvey has overpaid for everything and pretty much been a lap dog to Scott Boras. Anybody can do that. Don't know what I'm doing? Hey, I'll just overpay for a Boras client. Anyway, I was thinking recently that the Pohlads have to put up a stop sign to this, and that would mean Falvey might have trouble doing anything, since he's already ruined the farm system.
  3. twinstalker
    For some reason I thought Winokur was a college bat and thought it was telling he stayed at FCL when the other moved over to A ball. Happier now that I checked and saw otherwise. It appears the Twins hedged their bets between Winokur and Keaschall. They took the potential power guy Winokur who likely profiles as Kepler or Larnarch if he succeeds, and they took the hit tool guy in Keaschall. Amazing that they took only one position player after the 3rd round and only four overall (not counting the two quasi-picks at the end they weren't going to sign). Four hitters, fifteen pitchers. Good to see Jenkins have success on Day 1. His only two possible outcomes at FCL are Expected and Bad, so glad we saw Expected. I left out Injured, I guess. :-)
  4. twinstalker
    I think he needed every AB he got at AA. I don't see anything special in him (star-wise), but compared to the system he definitely stands out, including probably vs a number of MLB Twins hitters. Keep an eye on his home/away stats when evaluating how he does at AAA. CHS is a hitter's dream. Am I right that Boras is not his agent, so the Twins have a chance of keeping him more than six years? Unfortunately, Boras is still his quasi-boss, as he will determine his teammates, including the departures of Lewis and Kirilloff probably just about the time they get healthy in their careers.
  5. twinstalker
    Thank you. Obviously, we can do the research, but what would be really nice for these monthlies would be having the age, perhaps July 1 age, as part of the info. Regardless, thanks, always a fun read, and a hat tip to the work that goes into it.
  6. twinstalker
    Seems to me every draftee would be assigned to FCL initially for indoctrination and then go from there.
  7. twinstalker
    Yeah, agreed. But Severino's an eventual AAAA player. I just hope they don't protect him this offseason. How difficult would it be for MLB pitchers to strike him out? I will say his K rate this month is under 25%, so that's huge improvement for him. But then again, the tougher pitchers get promoted in June, and he didn't. Pretty much doesn't matter which player Falvey was offering me in trade for my reliever or rh stick, I wouldn't want anybody he was wiling to give up. It's a very stinky system, and will really only avoid being the worst this offseason because they lucked into the 5th pick. Lee, EmRod, and Jenkins are the only three who stand out, and I believe anyone else would be an after-thought in nearly every other system. Just wondering, how does Keirsey, 26, get the nod for #5 hitter of July over catcher Cardenas, 23? Keirsey's numbers are average in a hitter's park/league, while the more valuable position player in much more of a pitcher's park/league had very good stats. I could see it one were the prospect and the other not, but Cardenas is more of a prospect than Keirsey.
  8. twinstalker
    Better than the three reasons Falvey gave.
  9. twinstalker
    The obvious is still not being talked about. I really don't think Falvey had any ammunition to work with after the 3-4 guys he probably deemed untouchable in negotiations. Every team can see that Larnach and Severino aren't eventual helpful major leaguers. The Twins whole system strikes out too much (age vs level) to ever make it in MLB, save a few like Lee. Even if Falvey could trade Larnach for a bag of peanuts, doing so would be a huge admission of failure, and Falvey doesn't appear to be secure enough to admit when he makes mistakes. Larnach, Kepler, Gallo...
  10. twinstalker
    Control of what? The Twins had years of control with Jose Lopez. For a guy like Civale, control can be a burden. TB might change his peripherals and make him into a good, projectable starter, but from Cleveland's POV, Civale was what he was. And what he was was a highly variable starter who was having success at the moment. Sell high. Very little sense in selling Gray, but if they did, they'd have to be blown away with an offer far better than the compensation pick they'd get. That's maybe difficult. For instance, would you do it for a guy like Drew Gilbert? He was actually taken with a pick similar to what the Twins would get if Gray went to FA with them. I doubt they'd get more than that, and Gilbert's value might not ever make up for losing two months and possible postseason of Gray. Prospects Live has Gilbert in the 40s and MLB.com has him 68. In other words, it makes almost zero sense to trade Gray, given the probable return.
  11. twinstalker
    The public doesn't dig down into the stats very far. Twins prospects, except for Lee and maybe a few others much further down, have huge K rates, and teams only look as far as that to say no. I think Wallner's k rate is a bit misleading, but I can't quantify why. I doubt a team is going to look at it and say: "There's a future all-star." I realize you just use Wallner as an example, but again, outside of Lee and possibly some new draftees, nearly every prospect is badly flawed. It's a bad system thanks to bad drafts, meh signings, and horrible trades. Boras is basically running the front office for his own benefit (Joey Gallo says thanks for the $11 million, Lewis and Kirilloff and Jeffers won't be accepting early, team-friendly deals).
  12. twinstalker
    I doubt it would be easy to find a taker for Severino. His K rate for his age at AA is pretty bad and portends poorly. He might be a second player thrown into a deal, but his need to be protected on the 40 probably makes that unlikely, too. He might be the guy the team with a low value reliever is referring to when they say to the Twins, "Just give us a player we can take to our fanbase and say we got something." Jeremy, did the Twins waste $2.5 million on Ariel Castro? Should someone with that bonus be striking out 37.2% of the time in the lowest league possible? See ball, hit ball, no?
  13. twinstalker
    Cleveland knows what it's doing in general here. It's taking an unstable bleh stock that's been on the rise and selling at the top. I doubt Falvey could bring himself to make this same trade. Well, actually, I doubt Falvey could even get the name Manzardo out of his mouth with TB. He'd probably give up Maeda/Civale for one of TB's failed second base prospects.
  14. twinstalker
    Civale has been horse-bleep, and his good pitching stretches are more lucky pitching stretches. They got a steal here, and if you don't think the Twins should have sold Maeda for that (because he's better than Civale at their bests), you're not seeing things right. Mostly, though, two things will probably happen: the world will find a hole in Manzardo's swing that only the Rays can see now, and Civale will become 5x the pitcher he is now. Because that's Tampa. Or possibly not. While I'm sure Cleveland struggles to evaluate hitting, they must think Civale's at his peak, and they have some cred there.
  15. twinstalker
    I don't really think the ACL was a "fluke." First, Lewis was prone to that injury. Second, he was clearly out of his element trying to make a challenging but not all that tough of play, and together that caused his injury. Seems plausible something similar could happen again. It's sort of like calling Buxton running into a wall (when most CFs would simply make a good catch) a fluke.
  16. twinstalker
    It's not so much about a chance, there are six guys I like more as SP than Keuchel. It's more about the Twins giving some of those six a rest.
  17. twinstalker
    Probably is not a good thing for a not so good player. What might be worse, though, were if he were continually exposed to MLB pitching.
  18. twinstalker
    Does this mean finally Noah Miller has been taken off the top 20?
  19. twinstalker
    Rooker? How bad is he? He had a hot streak and pitchers again found his holes, and he's terrible. Might he become competent? Potentially, and I expect Larnach to have a year or two where he's competent. When you trade someone there has to be hope for that player or nobody would want him. They've actually waited far too long to trade Larnach, and now they're going to get a pile of sticks for him, but it's a pile that might be useful for a couple of months.
  20. twinstalker
    Good article. I'm not sure getting the overage tax from others is worth it, but I wonder if there are any more penalties for going over, like maybe it's one strike toward not being considered a small market team or something like that.
  21. twinstalker
    The good news: Twins really need a rhp vs righty specialist in the bullpen. The bad news: Target Field isn't LoanDepot Park.
  22. twinstalker
    Can't help but comment on both sentences: 1. Do you think they could have gotten more somewhere else, or do you think they should have kept Lopez? This has nothing to do with his son unless it's coincidence. 2. The trade with Balitimore is nothing more than a blip compared to the one with the Reds. Not to mention the process seemed good on the Lopez trade. The Twins apparently have nobody looking into the guys they're getting in return, but other than that process flaw (there's your catastrophe), the Twins seemed to make a reasonable deal there. With the Reds it was horrible from the moment it was suggested, and people who simply said something like "the Twins only gave up their 7th and 12th best prospects for a starter" have no idea what they're talking about on either side. Speer and CES may not have been updated, but it was quite clear they were top five guys at the deadline and traded for an injured guy who's background even when healthy was questionable. Just about the dumbest thing I've seen a team do, and on the heels of the Gobert trade to boot.
  23. twinstalker
    LOL. So, AK will have 2+ years service time at the end of this year. He'll hit for less power than is needed. He is a Boras client, so he will be gone at the end of six years unless the Twins overpay steeply to keep him. I hope people realize Falvey has sold his soul to the devil, and the devil has it now. Boras is the one who controls the Twins fate. This isn't going to end well for anyone except Boras. Not you, me, or Falvey, just Boras.
  24. twinstalker
    You can Royce Lewis off the list because he's surpassed rookie thresholds. You can take Noah Miller off the list because.
  25. twinstalker
    Smart: Trading Sonny Gray because the Twins are not playoff-caliber. Dumb: Trading Sonny Gray because it appears he would maybe quit baseball instead of taking $60-$80 million. I'll try an Aaron Gleeman-type analogy here: No, screw that. If it doesn't make sense as is, I can't help you.
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