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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    I'm trying to re-create your in-zone whiff rate, and I'm coming up short. Of the 302 pitches Amick saw, only 117 were in the zone. Whiff rate is defined as swings and misses out of total swings, so I determined Amick swung at 84 pitches (swinging strikes, balls put in play, fouls, and foul tips). That's for sure the denominator. Then I chose swinging strikes (13) and foul tips (1), not sure whether the latter should be included, but it's essentially a swing and miss. That's 14/84 = 16.67% or 13/84 = less, and you have 18%, which I'm sure is not a rounding of either. Just wondering where you came up with 18%. Is there a source you're using outside of the Baseball Savant I'm using? Any help here would be greatly appreciated. Definitely asking, not criticizing. I may well be wrong or using different data.
  2. twinstalker
    I would think he'd have an inside track on the 4th spot (but calling it the 5th spot because). Does he deserve the inside track? Of course. Does he deserve the actual spot? Well, not yet, of course, we've got six weeks of spring training.
  3. twinstalker
    Morris is a current favorite of mine. And it's a great class with Zebby and Lewis and the seemingly injured Culpepper. I don't have a lot of expectations for CJC until he has TJS or whatever he needs, but I do like him. Jones may be a part of that, but I haven't seen it yet in the stats. This class is what's finally cemented that the Twins have the pitching pipeline Falvey was supposed to supply.
  4. twinstalker
    I was hoping this was about Prielipp and not Canterino, who I think is on the edge of done. Just the same, I think Prielipp's forever destiny is in relief. A Ragan's outcome has to be incredibly rare, especially when you throw in the at least perceived caution of the Twins staff. Add to that the dearth of lh relief for the Twins going forward.
  5. twinstalker
    Scouting report: Couldn't touch upper end pitchers in college. All his damage done in the league he played in and equivalent. Horrible pick by the Twins. And in the first round. But wait...this could be wrong. A first rounder (33rd) should be able to hold his own in A+ the year he gets drafted, let's see. Oh, that's right. He was placed in low A and not promoted. Why not? .235 avg, .665 ops, 24.3% K rate, The strikeouts portend...ugly. Meanwhile, Tanner Schobel (68th, .242/.670) put up a similar slash but some of that may have been more unlucky (19.2% k rate). Objectively, Schobel looks better at a comparable time, and we know how much of a prospect Schobel is at this point. He was a bad pick much later. Some of the 2024 big draft names were sent to low A and struggled, at least initially. But when the prior is inability to hit top end pitching (in college), it does not bode well. Another example of this, btw, is his Cape Cod league season, where he fizzled with a .633 ops. I honestly think the Twins went to see him in LaFayette, LA, saw him hit vs bad pitching, saw him hustle like a white guy gym rat, and thought they saw another Luke Keaschall, all while forgetting about the context. I hope I'm wrong. I wasn't wrong on Noah Miller, who, btw, did as well at Ft. Myers while being 1.3 years younger there. DeBarge? Not a fan of his play and especially of the Twins drafting him. Baseball America had him at 89 prior to the 2024 draft, MLB.com had him at 67. Just like Miller, he was seriously over-drafted.
  6. twinstalker
    Don't have time to read all the comments, but dumping Headrick seems implausible, given some of the shaky 40 man components. Keirsey would have seemed the guy. That makes me think Headrick is unlikely to be recovered enough to compete.
  7. twinstalker
    For the price it's probably well worth it. DH and 1B. Would have loved Turner, but maybe they're the same this year.
  8. twinstalker
    Keaschall at 1B is interesting, but I don't think he's a bad fielder and should probably be the eventual 2B. He obviously had to played bad-armed positions last season and may well start this year that way, but I think he'll be fine in the end at 2B. We'll see. So much depends on Brooks Lee. As for Lewis, he'll be gone in four years (so should be traded in two). Moving him to 1B will not optimize his trade value.
  9. twinstalker
    Not to mention Lewis and Jeffers will not be extended (nor probably should they be anyway) due to Boras. Though I've now gotten confused as to Jeffers' representation (he used to be represented by a guy named Boriss or Borris). Regardless, a catcher in his 30s isn't a foundational piece, he's just at the end of his career. An article like this needs to focus on Keaschall. He's really the one without questions. Jenkins, too, but again...Boras. EmRod is more likely to be a bust than average player, as is any other hitter not named Jenkins, Keaschall, and actually Eeles if he hits the ball hard enough. I'm not opposed to extending a pitcher, but the problem comes when the guy you decided to give 30MM a year to three years earlies can't even pitch when that bill's due. If you're willing to eat that and still put together a good staff. So, none. The topic is not a bad one, but again, the subjects make no sense, really.
  10. twinstalker
    Well, Keaschall isn't going to be, either, but they've invited him, injury and all. I don't think it's a big deal, but it would be nice to know the Eeles rationale. Eeles never had a chance of starting at 2B. He's got three years of non-40 left, and they're going to make sure he accomplishes everything in AAA at every position. It doesn't explain Keachall, though. My guess is that Eeles plays many, many end-of-ST games anyway. I suppose they can more closely evaluate Keaschall's arm by having him with the big league team for ST, at least initially. I'll bet bragging points that Eeles plays in more MLB ST games than Keaschall. Won't bet more innings, though!
  11. twinstalker
    Nobody but some Twins fans think he'll be a good prospect, so he's never going to be a major part of a trade. If X and Rosario are the return for a player the Twins acquire, know that the other team wanted X. The OP headline is somewhat appropriate because hopefully his name won't come up again if he does poorly. Problem is, especially with the band boxes in Wichita and St. Paul, fans and some writers will ignore the predictive stats and only see the ones that appear positive, like they've done with Yunior Severino. As for Rooker (and I'll add Wallner), they're somewhat outliers, and I've tried to find the rationale for why their K rates haven't led to MLB failure. We don't have all the stats for every minor league, but I think it's sort of an art to identifying these guys. I most certainly didn't with Rooker, but, independently, I did identify Wallner as someone who could have MLB success (fingers still crossed). Guys with massive power appear to simply take more chances than a more normal player. While spending a couple years analyzing Wallner, there was at least anecdotal evidence that he truly changed his approach (successfully) for important ABs. That is, his bad predictors, including chase rate and the overriding K rate, weren't all that bad when he concentrated on not chasing, not K-ing. Note, too, that Rooker is just finishing up his prime years while Wallner is entering his. When their bats slow down, who knows? We won't know until he plays in AAA what Rosario's exit velocities are, but I'm pretty sure they don't compare to those two guys. I would love for him to have trade value, but I really don't think he does. If he can somehow both increase his power to Cedar Rapids levels while reducing his K rate to 25%, he'll be worth a spot in the 10-20 range next year, unlike this year where I think everybody made a pretty big mistake wherever they've put him.
  12. twinstalker
    Headline question has been my question. Basically, Twins need to sign a couple corner guys now and see if they can trade Julien, Paddack, and the catcher. A lot to do still.
  13. twinstalker
    It would take extraordinary circumstances for him to have a chance of making the team out of spring training. He doesn't have to be put on the 40 until before the 2028 season. (Not that that is how it will go) Unless there are multiple injuries, no chance he starts the season in MLB. I'm a big fan of the guy (thus far) and think he should be a top 10 prospect. But whatever numbers make your pupils dilate, keep in mind there are reasons why nobody is putting him in the top 20. They might be wrong, but we can't discount the reasons for this unless we understand them.
  14. twinstalker
    He's not going to have a lot of OBP if he doesn't punish pitches in the zone. OBP is one of the most misleading minor league statistics.
  15. twinstalker
    Really the only concern is his exit velocity, which averaged 86.9 at AAA last season. I'm not sure of his max or EV90, but I doubt they defy his average EV. You really want the average to be at 90 in AAA, but it doesn't have to be. As is he should be decent this year. For reference, Austin Martin's avg EV at AAA was 86.4. (EVs for other levels than AAA are incomplete). K rate, age vs league, and exit velocity/barrels are about all you need to piece together how good a prospect will be (barrels is learned, to an extent). The problem with projecting Eeles is that, for a true prospect, he started even AAA too old, so the projection is tougher. I'd still put him in the top 10 for the Twins, maybe as high as 5 or 6, after Morris and depending on whether you include Zebby, but I could see arguments for put Lewis in front of him. Soto, too, if you really value upside over 50th %ile.
  16. twinstalker
    The $20 million you mention. Not sure that's right or even close, but it does seem they're ready to spend more than we all thought. I've sort of imagined this scenario: "Hello, potential buyer in the pool of what's basically guaranteeing us a way out of our self-created mess, what do you think if we added X million to payroll to start the season?" Enough shrugs from 90%-guaranteed buyers, and you realize you were saving a little money for no real reason. That is, I think this is a sign they know the sale is coming from one or another.
  17. twinstalker
    A bag of beans, non-magic. We win!
  18. twinstalker
    My goodness.
  19. twinstalker
    I just read the article. While RMC is not a bad target, you'd be insane to give up one of the Twins starters (Paddack, sure), inclusive of Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Culpepper, Bengard, and Soto. Given them Raya. RMC gets expensive and is perhaps not even an average player. He's exactly the kind of player Baltimore's front office wants to get rid of.
  20. twinstalker
    Who would possibly suggest that?
  21. twinstalker
    They will likely break camp or plan to break camp with Gasper, Julien, and Martin with Lee in AAA. I don't think that lasts very long, though I think Martin is here to stay. I also think a healthy Martin improves a lot and maybe even gets numerous starts at 2B. His main offensive problem is that he doesn't hit the ball very hard, and that will never change. But I could see .280/.350/.380, which would be just peachy.
  22. twinstalker
    I'm not sure whether the Twins had an open spot prior to Coloumbe, but it's pretty clear Helman is going to be a victim to the 40 probably before anybody, Keirsey could also be that if they needed even another. As for Julien, I don't care as long as the Twins don't stick with him when he's still not "getting it." Since I doubt he will, that means they should really try to deal him if there's any interest whatsoever.
  23. twinstalker
    Love the Eeles at 2B selection even more than Cease. Unfortunately for both of us, Eeles doesn't doesn't have to be put on the 40 until the offseason prior to his age 29 season, so it will be a while getting the Twins to cooperate. How'd we get Lawlar and Cease? You can't give up Keaschall. He's better than y'all think, and I'd much rather have him in left than EmRod. Or at 2B if the Twins want to wait until Eeles has grandkids.
  24. twinstalker
    LOL. 270 comments on this guy. It's fine bringing him in, but if you knew a few days ago the Twins had $10 million to spend, I'm wondering how you would actually spend it. Honestly, Bader shouldn't get more than 250 PAs, but the problem is you know he will. Bader's last "good" year was 2021 when he hit like average Kepler. It would be a fluke if he put up those kind of numbers for the Twins, less a fluke if the Twins only really played him vs lhp.
  25. twinstalker
    I don't disagree with anything you say here, but it's difficult for me to let a Keaschall/Julien comparison pass without comment. Your comment works because Julien had a helluva year in 2023. I personally kept wondering why MLB pitchers hadn't figured out how to pitch him. By the end of the season they had it solved. Keaschall won't go through what Julien went through. I'm not saying his first ABs will match Julien's, but his second season will be fantastic by comparison. Luke Keaschall hits the ball hard and doesn't strike out. He covers the plate. As for the gist of this article, I'm smh. I mean, he's talking a ROY, and his focus is getting a draft pick. You know what? Jenkins could be that player in 2026, and a draft pick would be a nice perk, but you wouldn't be focusing an article on a pick. You'd be focusing on his tremendous season. But what's better? Six years of Jenkins and a possible supplemental pick or seven years of Jenkins? A player signs with Boras with the understanding that he'll go to free agency rather than sign an extension, so you have even less years if you're realistic and know you'll need to trade him. If Jenkins can't be denied this season, you bring him up this year during the summer. If you can wait until next year, you wait until May. Sorry, Scott and Walker, this is what your stance brings about. I don't know why any Boras client would start his career prior to May.
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