twinstalker

You'd be surprised. I played relatively (vs normal person) high level football and basketball. I sprained my ankles a lot, and people treated it as you say, bummer, accident. And then I got tired of constantly being out, so I started doing something about it to prevent it, even though my ankles were now a mess. I'm talking high school and small college, and I guess I never had the expectation back then that the team should be addressing this proactively with everyone, even me. It's really easy to prevent. I had so many "events" occur after I started my prevention, and none of the turns were bad because I protected. Then I got cocky in grad school playing IM hoops, didn't protect, bad sprain. Rest of life protected, never hurt again in hoops, but sprained twice running unprotected (hit a hole, hit an ice chunk). There are levels of protection, and there are ways to concentrate on protecting against high and low sprains. I was very interested in learning all this, of course. It shocks me to this day when an athlete sprains his ankle. I know my story is very anecdotal, but I think I was an extreme case to begin with, and that matters here. As for EmRod, for one, I spend an inordinate amount of time studying prospects and their eventualities. My background and graduate work is in stats, but I still need to get a life. EmRod has a chance, as I said. He's a good prospect compared to the Twins list of prospects, but there are a half dozen or so in the organization now I expect to have better careers, on average. This is all on average. And that may be shortchanging him if he figures things out 6-7 years down the road and has a fine career thereafter. I know I keep repeating it, but minor league K rate is pretty much the one statistic you need to look at, albeit it adjusting for a few other factors, including age vs level, power hitting (binary, think Wallner) and a few other things. The new statcast data are going to refine this, but K rate is the biggie of the common-now stats. So I predicted struggles for Julien and success with a lot of strikeouts for Wallner. Wallner's not done proving it, but Julien is. He'll have to be a 2nd phase guy if he's anything, and it's going to take a massive change, if it's possible. Also, a low walk rate in the minors isn't a good thing unless the hit tool is extraordinary (see Jacob Wilson), but a high walk rate (non-predictive) is almost always about passivity. It's incredibly easy to draw a walk in the minors compared to the majors, and that means walk rate can be more misleading than helpful. MLB pitchers have a field day with a passive hitter. Mind you, just like with Julien, pitchers don't figure a player out immediately, but when they do, the book is everywhere. I'd have to imagine the pitching learning curve is shorter now based on better minors data. I would expect EmRod to enter the majors on a minor league hot streak, and both that and the natural pitcher learning curve could contribute to immediate success, just like with Julien. Someone with power like EmRod (though not a power hitter, binary) could do very well before suddenly "what happened?" Another example is Keaschall. Last year I was giving EmRod more a benefit of the doubt than I am now, but I think my top five in order were Jenkins, Lee (because guaranteed MLBer) Keaschall, Zebby, and EmRod (mostly to avoid having to explain why he wasn't in my top five). But Keaschall had everything we look for in a prospect except maybe high high upside. And he showed it when called up, though he'll never be that good, obviously. He's got some power, doesn't K, speed, was about as young vs MiLB level as he could be given his draft status plus had those intangibles that turn into tangibles: SBs, extra bases, and such. As far as I know, I was the only one ranking Keaschall higher than EmRod, and to me it wasn't even close. Lee, btw, I criticized often, but his low K rate made me believe he'll be a major leaguer as long as he's young and healthy. Keaschall wasn't a sure-fire MLBer like Lee but was really close. I think I had Zebby ahead of Keaschall, if I did, because of impact if he reached his ceiling. I also like Payton Eeles a lot, but there are so many unknowns and a few key negatives that I think won't be a real problem with him, but his profile is so unique, I'm not betting the house on him. His upside is a fine 2B with the Keaschall intangibles...I'm not even sure he can be a utility player, though his arm strength might not be the problem I fear, and he will be just that. For the record on 6/6/25: 1. Jenkins (clear 1 due to a lot...he's quite good if healthy) 1b. Keaschall (too good to start with a "2") 3a. Dasan Hill (better than Soto but further away for now) 3b. Charlee Soto (can't seem to get info on injury, and that definitely puts him after Hill) 5. Connor Prielipp (could be higher, but I think he's a reliever) 6. EmRod (mostly due to age, speed, and fielding to go with his hitting stats vs K rate) 7. Payton Eeles (this is purely a "I know he'll play and be decent" spot) 8. Andrew Morris (15 months younger than Zebby, last year Zebby started at high A, less mph) <special place for CJ Culpepper, who likely needs TJS, but the Twins are Canterino-ing him> 9. Gabriel Gonzalez (not sure there's much upside, but he'll hit, 14% K rate this year, 12% AA) 10, Danny De Andrade (I could put McCusker here or around 15) After that's there's a bunch of guys like K. Culpepper, DeBarge, D. Pena, maybe Winokur, Olivar, maybe McCusker, et al. There's a whole lot of pitchers we don't quite know about that will fill up 11-25 at the end of the season. When we get to 30, we can start talking names like Raya, Schobel, No, Schobel hitting well at third time through AA doesn't impress me. Could be a thrown in to a deal, I suppose. I'm probably too rough on both, but they're not top prospect in any way at this point. Finally, Corey Lewis. Need to figure out what's wrong. Pretty sure he's much better than he's showing, not sure what's wrong. At this point I'd put him around 15-20 based on his prior success. Amick maybe sneaks in top 20 but is 20-25. You can't be as old as your competition and strike out at a 25% rate and show zero HR power. I won't say his decent stats are all BABIP driven, but there's a god chance that's what we're looking at.

None of this really matters, but EmRod isn't a great prospect. Beside Jenkins and Keaschall, both of whom I had well ahead of EmRod last year, I'd put at least three pitchers, too, before him. High OBP is not a predictor of success, and that's EmRod's best attribute. Rodriguez is a guy with a chance, but I don't think it's all that big of a chance to be a better than average player. Maybe 5%. Jenkins should be moved down simply for individual/team stupidity. I really don't understand how players are allowed to sprain their ankles.

I know of no can't-miss prospects on the Twins infield, other than what Keaschall has become. Lewis was only can't-miss in Twins goggles terms. Culpepper is definitely not can't-miss, either, as he's as old as his high A competition. Prospects taking normal routes aren't as old as their competition. Not that anybody is asking, but Schobel has more or less proven he's not a true prospect. I wouldn't let anybody like him take PT away from Eeles. Eeles has done nothing but succeed. He may not be a real prospect, but I'd see if I were the Twins. I still rate him in my top ten ahead of K. Culpepper and DeBarge for now.

If 3B isn't Lewis, what are we doing here? Frankly, if he gets hot again (ever) the Twins need to trade him. Nobody will want to trade him when he's mashing, but it's the thing to do. He's got just a year plus left with the Twins anyway, once they realize they got in bed with the devil.

This seems fishy

Prognosticate -- IDNTTWMWYTIM wonder? ponder?

I don't mind this relievers feature because it's fun, but there's otherwise no point. The day a minor league reliever from low A ends up helping the Twins, wake me up.

SWR has considerable upside?

Thanks for this. Not sure Jones is "hot," but it's interesting to get the update on his improvement over the month, just in case.

I was appalled before we even got to the punch line.

How could it hurt?

I've never had an issue doing this prior to this year. When I had cable, I DVR'd games, when I used the FSN app, I had the option to watch from the beginning, when I used Fubo, I had it record all Twins games, and now with the mlb.tv app, as you say, I can also watch from the beginning. I haven't watched a game live in over 25 years, usually starting 30-60 minutes behind (to skip commercials), sometimes after it was over, and almost never when I knew the outcome. I guess I've watched a few playoff games where it was live, but that was more for other people's sake.

Hrbek. That's a funny name. Did he play townball, too?

They're pretty different. Miranda can hit, Julien will have to change his approach to hit, and that's not a simple thing. If they need a 40 spot, I wouldn't blink if they let Julien go. Miranda I'd hesitate, but only because he has the ability to hit at the MLB level when all is normal. But I wouldn't get my shorts in a bunch. As we see, guys off the scrap heap can replace this sort. Gasper is sort of funny, and I'd love to see a breakdown of what he hits and doesn't hit at both AAA and MLB, meaning what pitches at what speeds, etc. etc.

This is probably right, though it is the Pirates. We could probably sneak Lewis in there instead of Keaschall.

Ha! A little sarcasm, irony, and trivia thrown into the Minor League Report. I like it.

I don't understand how this happened. If he truly had a "high ankle sprain," he shouldn't have been seeing the field when he did. Recovery from that is much longer than however long he was out. You don't want to exacerbate the injury. Of course, in my day, we just limped a little after sitting out for a week or two. Oops, my uncle has something to add. "Back when I played we gutted it out and rubbed some dirt on it. Everybody was sore in some way, so it was an even playing field." And finally, his older cousin: "If it hurt too much, we just cut it off."

I don't understand where the "progressing" comes from. It sounds pretty much the opposite.

Schobel is a reminder that prospect development is not always linear. He'll need at least another month of good hitting to earn a promotion to AAA IMHO, but he's doing what he needed to do to keep advancing his career. It was starting to look like he had his the AA wall and couldn't handle more advanced pitching, but he's made adjustments and is starting to look more like the kind of player we hoped he could be. Good timing because there's a wave of infielders coming in behind from Cedar Rapids... No, Schobel is a reminder that second cracks (in this case, third) at a level are generally superior to the first time around, especially when you've passed the too old line. Hitting prospects who've taken the standard route and are as old as their competition aren't really prospects, they're organization guys. I mean, next year at AA I'd expect Schobel to be even better. Guys like McCusker and Eeles are old, but they've done nothing but succeed. They may or may not be MLB-worthy, but I'll take a chance on their weird routes before I'd get impressed by a month from a guy playing his third year in a row at the same level.

Even if you're eyeballing it, you see Paddack's run is unsustainable. So perhaps you're closing your eyes as well as not accepting objective evidence.

This is such an odd exercise. I mean, wouldn't you basically just see what players have been ranked in BA's top 100?

Why is he fine? He's never been fine before.

As long as you all keep him as the number 7 ranked prospect.

There's not a player with any time who hasn't had hot streaks. Even bat speed isn't a constant. On the other hand, Dad suddenly and miraculously found a second wind some way, some how. Maybe he's advising. Seriously, though, Clemens has some power, so when your BABIP is two hundred points higher than your career average, you look like a monster. Some of that could be real, e.g. if his bat speed is truly new and real and he's never swung a bat at 73 mph before. But no, he's not this. ABs are not independent.

If you're looking for an old catcher who can help the Wind Surge in the future, he's your man. I expect great things from him one day in Wichita. :-)